SAO PAULO,
May 24, 2017 /PRNewswire/ --
Platts Survey of Analysts (1H
May)
- Cane crush: 36.15 million metric tons
(mt)
- Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 119.06 kilograms
per metric ton (kg/mt)
- Sugar production: 1.88 million metric tons
(mt)
- Total ethanol production: 1,369
million liters (ltrs)
- Hydrous ethanol production: 795.86 million
ltrs
- Anhydrous ethanol production: 573.43 million
ltrs
- Sugar mix: 45.87%
- Ethanol mix: 54.13%
The amount of sugarcane crushed in Center-South (CS)
Brazil in the first half (1H) of
May is expected to be 36.15 million mt, down 9% from the same
period last year, but up 50% from the second half of April, an
S&P Global Platts survey of analysts showed
Wednesday.
About 1.2 days of crushing was lost to rain, the survey
showed, while in the second half (2H) April roughly three days were
lost.
Industry association UNICA is expected to release the
official production figures for the key Center-South region in the
coming days, possibly as early as Thursday. The 2017-18 sugarcane
season began April 1 in the region,
the largest sugarcane and sugar producer in the world.
If the expectations for the cane crush in 1H May are
confirmed, the cumulative cane crushed so far this season would
total 77.86 million mt, down 28% on the year.
Last season mills started crushing early as there was a
lot of "cana bisada" (left over cane from the previous season)
available. The drier-than-average weather also favored the pace of
crushing last year.
The range of analysts' expectations for cane crushed in 1H
May was 34.3 million-37.3 million mt, while the expectations for
the total recoverable sugar (ATR) ranged from 115 to 122.7 kg/mt of
cane.
The survey's average for the ATR was 119.06 kg/mt, down
4.3% from a year earlier, but up 4.7% from 2H April.
The percentage of cane crushed directed to produce sugar is
expected to come in at 45.87%, up from 42.91% a year earlier. The
balance, or 54.13%, was used for ethanol production.
Sugar production is expected to be approximately 1.88
million mt, down 9% on the year, while ethanol output is expected
to have fallen 16% on the year to 1.37 billion liters. Of the
total, hydrous ethanol is likely to have accounted for nearly 58%,
or 796 million liters, and anhydrous for the balance.
In Parana state, one of
the sugarcane producing regions of CS Brazil, the amount of cane
crushed in 1H May fell 6% year on year to 1.95 million mt,
according to local industry association Alcopar. The ATR in the
state was 130.1 kg/mt of cane, up 12.84 kg/mt from 2H April and up
from 128.51 kg/mt in 1H May
2016.
Total fuel and industrial ethanol sales (anhydrous plus
hydrous) in CS Brazil in 1H May to the domestic market are expected
to be roughly 900 million liters, down 9% on the year, according
to a forecast by Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analysis unit of
S&P Global Platts.
Hydrous fuel ethanol is used in flex-fuel vehicles, while
anhydrous is mixed with gasoline under a 27% mandate.
CS Brazil Cane
Production Data – 1H May, 2017 (as of May 16)
|
|
Category
|
Unit
|
Survey
|
UNICA
(2016-17)
|
Y-O-Y*
|
var. Vol.
y-o-y*
|
Cane crush
|
(million
mt)
|
36.15
|
39.69
|
-8.9%
|
-3.54
|
ATR
|
(kg/mt
cane)
|
119.06
|
124.42
|
-4.3%
|
-5.36
|
Sugar
output
|
(thousand
mt)
|
1,880
|
2,071
|
-9.2%
|
-190.86
|
Ethanol
total
|
(million
ltr)
|
1,369
|
1,621
|
-15.5%
|
-251.71
|
Hydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
796
|
969
|
-17.9%
|
-173.14
|
Anhydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
573
|
652
|
-12.1%
|
-78.57
|
Sugar Mix
|
(%)
|
45.87
|
42.91
|
|
|
Ethanol
Mix
|
(%)
|
54.13
|
57.09
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
CS Brazil Cane
Production Data -- 2H April, 2017 (as of May 1)
|
|
Category
|
Unit
|
Survey
|
UNICA
|
|
|
Cane crush
|
(million
mt)
|
26.00
|
24.09
|
|
|
ATR
|
(kg/mt
cane)
|
112.00
|
113.75
|
|
|
Sugar
output
|
(thousand
mt)
|
1,171
|
1,122
|
|
|
Ethanol
total
|
(million
ltr)
|
986
|
932
|
|
|
Hydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
681
|
600
|
|
|
Anhydrous
output
|
(million
ltr)
|
305
|
332
|
|
|
Sugar Mix
|
(%)
|
42.25
|
42.97
|
|
|
Ethanol
Mix
|
(%)
|
57.75
|
57.03
|
|
|
|
Sources: S&P Global Platts Pre-Report Survey of
Analysts Results--Unica Sugarcane Crush, Platts Kingsman,
UNICA.
|
Y-O-Y= year over year
|
*Y-O-Y variance volume =Year over year. Such compares
Platts Survey against UNICA's figures for 2016-17
|
Visit the S&P Global Platts
and Platts Kingsman websites for
more information on sugar and biofuels.
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arrange interviews with Platts Kingsman sugar and ethanol analysts:
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