Quant Points Out Striking Resemblance Between 2017 And 2021 Bitcoin Cycles
14 Noviembre 2022 - 01:00PM
NEWSBTC
A quant has pointed out the similarities between the 2017 and 2021
Bitcoin cycles, something that could hint at how the rest of this
bear market might play out. Both 2017 And 2021 Bitcoin Cycles Saw
New Lows Around The 365-Day Mark Since The Top As explained by an
analyst in a CryptoQuant post, the two cycles are more similar than
one might expect them to be. The indicator of relevance here is the
“drawdown from ATH,” which measures the percentage decrease in the
price of Bitcoin following the all-time high during each cycle.
Here is a chart that shows the trend in this metric for the 2017
and 2021 cycles: Looks like the current cycle hasn't gone as deep
as the previous one yet | Source: CryptoQuant In the above graph,
the start point for the 2017 Bitcoin cycle drawdown is in the
December of 2017, when the all-time high of the period was set.
Following this top, the price of the crypto took a sharp plunge
until around when the drawdown from the ATH had reached a value
between 65-70%. Related Reading: Smooth Love Potion Price Predicted
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After reaching these drawdown values, the price started to
stabilize, and ran sideways for about 110 days. Then, however, in
the November of 2018 the value of Bitcoin suddenly collapsed, and
kept declining until the bottom was reached around 365 days
following the ATH. As for the current 2021 cycle, the top formed
last November, and since then the price has been dropping off. The
chart shows the path this drawdown has taken so far. While the
decline isn’t exactly the same in the two cycles, there is still a
striking similarity between them. Just like in the previous cycle,
Bitcoin plunged hard following the top, until the drawdown from the
ATH hit a value of 70%. The crypto’s price then consolidated flat
similar to in the previous cycle, and then at around the 365-day
mark, BTC made a new low after plunging in a similar fashion to the
November 2018 crash. Related Reading: Will A Bankruptcy Of Bitcoin
Miner Core Scientific Impact The Price? So far this cycle has
resembled the previous one, but it’s uncertain at the moment
whether it will continue to do so in the rest of the bear or not.
If it indeed follows a similar trend from here on, then the quant
believes there would still be another 100 days of sideways movement
left (in which the cycle bottom will be formed) before the end of
the bear. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price floats
around $16.5k, down 20% in the last week. The value of the crypto
seems to have been moving sideways recently | Source: BTCUSD on
TradingView Featured image from Jonathan Borba on Unsplash.com,
charts from TradingView.com, CryptoQuant.com
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