MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
EU Flash consumer confidence indicator; U.K. Public sector
finances; trading updates from Associated British Foods, SEB
Opening Call:
European stock futures broadly advanced as technology stocks
continue to bolster indexes across the Atlantic. Asian stock
benchmarks were mixed; the dollar weakened and Treasury yields were
mostly lower; oil futures were mixed and gold gained.
Equities:
European stock futures were broadly higher early Tuesday, as
investors focus on coming economic data and corporate earnings.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Monday, with the Dow Jones
Industrial Average finishing at a record high. Investors are
watching for the first reading of U.S. fourth-quarter GDP as well
as figures on inflation and spending this week.
Stocks may still have more room to rise for the rest of the
year, according to Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at
Ameriprise Financial.
"I think the outlook for this year was still pretty positive,
particularly if earnings can grow on a year-over-year basis,"
Saglimbene said.
However, some others are more skeptical.
"With forward multiples already at historic peaks and earnings
forecasts for 12 months forward ambitious, equity-market gains may
stall in 2024, as better earnings are met with lower valuation
multiples characteristic of a midcycle or soft-landing
environment," Morgan Stanley Wealth Management said.
Earlier Tuesday, the Bank of Japan kept its policy rates
unchanged as it waits for more solid evidence of improving wage and
price trends.
Forex:
The dollar weakened slightly but several developed market and
emerging market central banks meetings this week, including the
European Central Bank, should bring more action to currency
markets, said Brown Brothers Harriman's currency analysts.
The euro is likely to stay steady ahead of the European Central
Bank's meeting on Thursday but could get something of a boost from
interest rates being left unchanged amid recent talk of future rate
cuts, said Bas Kooijman, CEO and asset manager of DHF Capital.
Money markets are pricing in the first ECB interest-rate cut in
April, according to Refinitiv.
--
The yen weakened after the Bank of Japan maintained its
extraordinary easing program earlier Tuesday, which puts downward
pressure on the yen.
Investors will be focusing on BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda's press
conference later in the day for any cues on any future policy
shifts.
Bonds:
Treasury yields were broadly lower as markets delayed
projections for an initial interest-rate cut by the Fed.
The CME's FedWatch tool prices increasing odds that the Fed will
keep rates unchanged next week and in March, with an expectation of
a first cut pushed down to May.
Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast December
core annual PCE slowing only slightly, to 3% from November's 3.2%,
in data due Friday.
--
High-yield and investment-grade bonds offering yields of around
8% and 5% respectively appear more attractive than equities,
CreditSights analysts said adding that in the long-term, U.S.
corporate bonds look attractive ahead of the expected interest-rate
cuts.
Energy:
Oil futures were mixed in a possible technical correction after
settling at their highest price levels in around a month.
Prices could get support from geopolitical tensions, analysts
said with Saxo Markets' APAC strategy team noting Ukrainian drone
attacks against oil facilities on Russia's Baltic coast, and
escalating tensions in the Red Sea as the U.S. and U.K. launched
fresh strikes against Houthi targets.
Metals:
Gold gained early Tuesday. There is strong physical demand ahead
of the Lunar New Year holidays, together with signs of speculative
buying activity out of China, TD Securities said.
TD Securities' tracking of the top 10 market participants in
Shanghai continues to indicate more aggressive buying than would be
expected by its tracking of gold withdrawals, signaling some
speculative buying, it said.
--
Copper prices were lower in early Asian trading, weighed by the
Chinese stock market's selloff a day earlier, Nanhua Futures
analysts said.
While China's copper demand is weak amid production halts ahead
of Lunar New Year, the overseas market will likely also be tepid in
the short term, they said.
--
Iron-ore prices gained in Asia. Demand is rising as the Lunar
New Year is approaching, CRU senior analyst Liz Gao said, adding
that prices may also be supported by a media report on a potential
two trillion yuan stimulus to stabilize the stock market.
However, ANZ Research analysts remain cautious on the outlook
with the property sector still showing signs of stress.
Beijing has ordered the most indebted local governments to delay
or halt some infrastructure projects, they noted.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
BOJ Keeps Rates Unchanged as It Examines Wage, Price Trends
TOKYO-The Bank of Japan kept its policy rates unchanged on
Tuesday as it waits for more solid evidence of improving wage and
price trends.
The Japanese central bank decided to maintain short-term
interest rates at minus 0.1%. It said it would continue to set 1%
as its reference point for the upper bound of the 10-year Japanese
government bond yield. In October, the bank decided to make the 1%
level a reference instead of a hard cap.
U.S. and U.K. Launch Major Strike on Houthi Sites in Yemen
WASHINGTON-The U.S. and U.K. launched strikes against eight
Houthi targets Monday, the two countries said, in a continuing bid
to stop the Yemeni rebel group's attacks on ships transiting the
Red Sea.
The strikes marked the second major assault by a joint force of
the two countries and the eighth time overall that the U.S. has
targeted the group, which is armed, funded and supported by
Iran.
BlackRock Warns Markets Not Appreciating Worsening Geopolitical
Backdrop
SYDNEY-The world's largest investment manager BlackRock has
warned of further deterioration in the geopolitical backdrop for
financial markets in 2024, adding that asset markets aren't fully
appreciating the risks.
"We expect deeper fragmentation, heightened competition and less
cooperation between major nations in 2024," BlackRock said in a
note to clients.
Gucci Owner Buys Fifth Avenue Property in New York City for $963
Million
The owner of Gucci and Yves Saint Laurent is acquiring property
comprising multi-level luxury retail spaces in New York City's
Fifth Avenue for almost $1 billion, expanding its retail locations
in one of the world's most iconic avenues.
Kering said Monday that it had agreed to pay $963 million for
the roughly 115,000 square foot property in a push aimed at
securing what it called highly desirable locations for its fashion
houses. The group recently acquired property on Avenue Montaigne
and Rue de Castiglione in Paris, France.
Australia Sanctions Russian Individual for Medibank
Cyberattack
Australia has sanctioned a Russian individual for his role in a
cyberattack on health insurer Medibank, the first time that
Australia's cyber sanctions framework has been used, officials
said.
Nearly 10 million records were stolen in the 2022 attack,
including names, dates of birth and sensitive medical information,
and some of those records were published on the dark web,
authorities said.
Arab Peace Proposal for Gaza Takes Shape as Top Biden Adviser
Lands in Region
Arab countries are working on a proposal for postwar Gaza that
would create a pathway toward a Palestinian state in exchange for
Saudi recognition of Israel, according to Arab officials.
The proposal, submitted to Israel via the U.S., is the first
joint plan by Arab states to end the war in Gaza and set a pathway
toward a two-state solution. Saudi Arabia, which is one of five
Arab countries making the proposal, is offering to normalize ties
with Israel in return, a process derailed by the Hamas-led attack
on Oct. 7.
Tiny Gaza Is Home to Most of the World's Hungriest People
After more than three months of war, Gaza City resident Samir
Muhammad recently received his first bag of flour since the
conflict broke out.
His son fought off hundreds of other desperate Palestinians to
grab it off the back of an aid truck-one of only a small number
that has succeeded in reaching northern Gaza in recent weeks.
United sees bigger-than-expected first-quarter loss after 737
Max groundings. Here's why the stock is rallying anyway.
United Airlines Holdings Inc. said it expected to lose more
money than expected in the first quarter, after the government this
month ordered dozens of Boeing 737 Max 9 jets grounded following a
mid-air blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight.
But shares of United UAL rallied 6% after hours on Monday, after
the air carrier forecast a full-year profit that was better than
expected. That forecast followed a jump in fourth-quarter results
that beat expectations, helped by both United's premium-cabin
offerings and its cheaper basic economy fares.
Amazon Hopes to Dominate the World of Streaming Ads. It Faces
Some Challenges Along the Way.
The arrival of ads on Amazon Prime Video this month is expected
to upend the already crowded streaming television market in the
U.S. But it also won't be an entirely smooth transition for
Amazon.
The e-commerce giant is now the world's third-largest digital ad
seller, behind tech companies Alphabet and Meta Platforms, with ad
revenue surpassing $12 billion in the third quarter, up 26% from
the period a year earlier. Its data and insights on millions of
customers give Prime Video a long-term advantage by allowing
marketers to target ads based on variables from shopping history to
location.
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Expected Major Events for Tuesday
07:00/DEN: Jan Consumer expectations
07:00/DEN: Dec Central Government Finance & Debt
07:00/UK: Dec Public sector finances
15:00/EU: Jan FCCI Flash Consumer Confidence Indicator
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 23, 2024 00:15 ET (05:15 GMT)
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