Global supply chain continuity index continues to decline
amid disruptions in trade routes
LONDON, April 3,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Dun & Bradstreet (NYSE:DNB),
a leading global provider of business decisioning data and
analytics, today released its Q2 2024 Global Business Optimism
Insights report. The latest quarterly report highlights a sustained
positive trend in the global business outlook, with the Dun &
Bradstreet Global Business Optimism Index rising 5.4% quarter over
quarter.
While there has been continued improvement in business optimism,
Dun & Bradstreet's forward-looking report reveals a
persistently declining optimism in the Global Supply Chain
Continuity Index, which slipped 8% for Q2, following a 6% decline
in Q1. The primary reason for this decline is the forced rerouting
of shipments due to geopolitical events across major trade routes.
Dun & Bradstreet's survey data shows that 1 in 7 businesses
find their operations were impacted by supply chain disruption.
However, businesses are adapting by implementing contingency plans
and diversifying their supplier base across different regions.
"The continued improvement in overall business optimism
indicates that businesses are regaining stability after grappling
with inflationary pressures and global monetary tightening," said
Neeraj Sahai, President of Dun &
Bradstreet International. "Today's supply chains face unprecedented
risks from volatile trade relations, civil unrests, extreme
weather, and disasters such as the recent incident in Baltimore. Increasingly businesses are
mitigating these risks by leveraging data to identify opportunities
for reshoring, nearshoring, and friend shoring."
Key findings from the Q2 report reveals:
- The Global Business Optimism Index increased 5.4%,
with businesses feeling more optimistic about the global
macroeconomic environment, particularly regarding inflation. For
the first time since the launch of the survey in 2023, businesses
are optimistic about input costs, aiding a recovery in optimism for
manufacturers globally.
- The Global Supply Chain Continuity Index continues
to slip, declining 8% in the quarter. Geopolitical tensions are
causing supply chain disruptions across major trade routes,
compelling businesses to adopt lengthier alternative routes. Nearly
1 in 6 businesses are increasing investments in supply chain risk
management to mitigate disruptions.
- The Global Business Financial Confidence Index was
essentially unchanged for the quarter, falling 0.4%. Firms remain
optimistic about operating conditions supporting balance sheets.
Among advanced economies, the index fell 2.3% but improved 5.5% for
emerging economies.
- The Global Business Investment Confidence Index
fell 5.4%. The largest drop in confidence was with small businesses
in advanced economies, recording a 17% decline. The index decline
signals a realigned consensus that major central banks in advanced
economies will begin to start a period of looser monetary policy
around mid-year – later than previously anticipated – delaying
investment decisions. Nearly 1 in 6 businesses report that recent
geopolitical events have impeded their investment plans.
- The Global Business ESG Index dipped 3%, though
firms maintain a favorable view toward adopting sustainability. ESG
sentiment in both emerging and advanced economies declined 3%,
although the former maintains a higher optimism level.
*Descriptions and information about the indices can be found on
page 25 of the report.
"Optimism regarding input costs has reached an all-time high,
contributing to a surge in optimism among manufacturers worldwide,
which has increased by 17%," said Arun
Singh, Global Chief Economist, Dun & Bradstreet.
"Nevertheless, persistent geopolitical disruptions have made
significant impacts on supply chains, and now they may also impede
investment decisions. With half of the world set to vote in 2024,
businesses are anticipated to closely monitor the evolving policy
landscape throughout the year. It is crucial for them to
strategically prepare for and navigate these challenges."
About the Global Business Optimism Insights Report
The Global Business Optimism Insights report is a synthesis
of data from a comprehensive survey encompassing 32
economies, covering approximately 10,000 businesses and 17
sectors, alongside insights from Dun & Bradstreet, leveraging
the firm's proprietary data and economic expertise. The report is
an amalgamation of five indices which reflect overall business
optimism and expectations about supply chain continuity, financial
and investment conditions and ESG initiatives. The indices range
from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an improvement
and a reading below 50 indicating a deterioration in optimism.
View the full report here.
About Dun & Bradstreet
Dun & Bradstreet, a leading global provider of business
decisioning data and analytics, enables companies around the world
to improve their business performance. Dun & Bradstreet's Data
Cloud fuels solutions and delivers insights that empower customers
to accelerate revenue, lower cost, mitigate risk, and transform
their businesses. Since 1841, companies of every size have relied
on Dun & Bradstreet to help them manage risk and reveal
opportunity. For more information on Dun & Bradstreet, please
visit www.dnb.com.
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