ITS Logistics August Port Rail Ramp Index: Shippers Concerned Upcoming Election Result Could Bring Back 2018 Tariff Increases
19 Agosto 2024 - 8:08AM
ITS Logistics today released the August forecast for the ITS
Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index. This month the
index reveals that significant bottlenecks are continuing to occur
in Asia for U.S. imports, especially in Southeast Asia. For
transpacific trade lanes being shipped to North America, the lack
of vessel space and container availability continues to increase
spot rates by almost 10 times from earlier this year. The recent
closure of Ningbo Beilun’s Phase III Terminal due to an explosion
on August 9th is also expected to have a significant impact on the
main transpacific trade lanes out of Asia as well as the overall
supply chain globally.
“This lack of vessel space and container
availability is creating the potential for a significant wave of
container traffic on the back end of Q3 and early Q4, as more
capacity is deployed and rates lower within a range to keep
shippers profitable,” said Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global
Supply Chain for ITS Logistics. “There is also anecdotal evidence
that some shippers are concerned about potential tariff increases
due to the potential of a second Trump presidency.”
Just last month, the former President confirmed in
a Bloomberg interview that if elected for a second term as
President, he plans to propose a new 10% tariff on all imported
goods with a 60% tax on all goods from China. These goods
specifically accounted for about 15% of all U.S. imports last
year.
While China was the main priority for tariffs
during Trump’s first term, the interview confirmed that a new term
may place more emphasis on the European Union and the
UK. Regardless of which countries become the focal point
should Trump become president again, economists are warning that
such actions could very likely become inflationary.
“To avoid a similar situation to Q4 2018, some
shippers may increase inventory in the back half of 2024,
especially if transpacific trade lane shipping rates decrease,”
continued Brashier. “Shippers may also want to get ahead of
increased consumer demand, which could be influenced by potential
interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Perception usually
drives reality in shipping, and just the potential of changes in
the economy can shift freight activity.”
This month’s forecast also reveals that strike
activity, or the potential of it, will affect the West Coast and
inland rail legs of ocean container traffic entering
Canada. Due to last week’s ruling by the Canada Industrial
Relations Board (CIRB), rail is not an essential service in Canada,
and a strike or disruption is more likely to occur. As a
result, the West Coast ocean region has been categorized as a
SEVERE concern, and inland rail ramps are an ELEVATED
concern.
Lastly, an increase in revenue per outbound
containers is causing them to be expedited back to Asia, which is
starting to adversely affect exports. In response, ITS is
urging exporters to be cautious as they navigate making cuts for
export.
ITS Logistics offers a full suite of network
transportation solutions across North America and distribution and
fulfillment services to 95% of the U.S. population within two days.
These services include drayage and intermodal in 22 coastal ports
and 30 rail ramps, a full suite of asset and asset-lite
transportation solutions, omnichannel distribution and fulfillment,
LTL, and outbound small parcel.
The ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index
forecasts port container and dray operations for the Pacific,
Atlantic, and Gulf regions. Ocean and domestic container rail ramp
operations are also highlighted in the index for both the West
Inland and East Inland regions. Visit here for a full comprehensive
copy of the index with expected forecasts for the US port and rail
ramps.
About ITS LogisticsITS
Logistics is one of North America's fastest-growing,
asset-based modern 3PLs, providing solutions for the industry’s
most complicated supply chain challenges. With a people-first
culture committed to excellence, the company relentlessly strives
to deliver unmatched value through best-in-class service,
expertise, and innovation. The ITS Logistics portfolio features
North America's #19 asset-lite freight brokerage, the #12
drayage and intermodal solution, a top 50 dedicated fleet, an
innovative cloud-based technology ecosystem, and a nationwide
distribution and fulfillment network.
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