Is This The Reason China Banned Bitcoin Mining? Carvalho’s Mind Blowin Theory
07 Noviembre 2021 - 10:06PM
NEWSBTC
Bitcoin entrepreneur and podcaster John Carvalho might be on to
something. In a recent episode of the Tales from the Crypt podcast,
he posed his theory on why did China shot itself in the foot by
banning Bitcoin mining early in the year. We at NewsBTC have been
racking our brains trying to come up with possible reasons for the
bizarre decision. Are they making way for their CBDC? Is the CPC
cutting the wings of Chinese Billionaires in all areas? Were they
already losing the hashpower battle? Is China having energy
problems? Is this an ESG issue? Were they closing the exit ramps
before the Evergrande collapse? Is Bitcoin just too dangerous? Why
would they retire from a Billion Dollar Business that they
controlled? Why? WHY? It has been a long time since I last joined
TFTC to chat. I had a great time discussing misc Bitcoin and "good
morning tweet" topics. Check it out! https://t.co/TVbOEjHWFD — John
Carvalho (@BitcoinErrorLog) November 2, 2021 The interviewee
summarizes our position with one phrase, “I refuse to believe that
China is stupid.” According to Carvalho, they’ve made too much
money in the mining business alone, and they also control the ASICs
manufacturers. Not only that, mining machines inflate the value of
chips. And they control that business too, alongside Taiwan and
South Korea. Why would they shoot the goose that laid the golden
eggs? It just doesn’t make sense… unless… Carvalho’s Mind Blowin
Theory Warning: the following text is full of speculation and
assumptions. “I can easily be wrong,” was one of the first things
Carvalho said. He doesn’t have any proof that this is what happens
and neither does NewsBTC. Let’s take it as a thought exercise. This
is how Carvalho would “play the game,” though. And if he could come
up with that plan, so did the CCP leaders. According to
Carvalho, every cycle China manipulates the Bitcoin price to get
more BTC. They sell, use the collateral to short Bitcoin, and
reaccumulate when the bear market arrives. This time, though, China
was facing a more mature and sophisticated market. Their FUD
techniques were not working. People weren’t falling for their
tricks. So, they had to turn it up a few notches. The main ASIC
manufacturer, the Chinese company Bitmain, had a new generation of
miners ready. So, the CCP “decided to create a demand for the
aftermaket and combine it with the FUD.” As they usually do, they
sold their Bitcoin and made their shorts. Then, China banned
Bitcoin mining and the whole country turned off the ASICs. The
world perceived the ban as real, just “look at the hashrate.” This
is the first time this happens. Then, China sold a small portion of
its ASICs to the USA. According to the latest stats, the USA now
provides the biggest percentage of Bitcoin’s hashrate… or does it?
“Everybody has this narrative where China has stupidly left mining
and giving it to the US,” Carvalho said unconvinced. A few months
after the China ban, American mining companies are suddenly on
everyone’s radars. But, is this really what’s going on? If The
Theory Holds Up, China Will Come Back To The Mining Game This is
price manipulation on another level. China figured out a way to get
more Bitcoin both against traders and against buyers of ASICs in
outside countries. They got rid of the old equipment, and Bitmain
will provide new machines soon enough. Then, China’ll buy back
their Bitcoin, and turn their next-gen ASICs on. According to
Carvalho, maybe they already did, and they’re just not signing
blocks or signing their blocks differently. If this is true,
they’ll unban Bitcoin mining soon enough, and spin a “the
resurrection of Asian mining” narrative. The Tales From The Crypt
host, Marty Bent, is not convinced. He argues that we have to
separate CCP from the individual Chinese miners. It’s worth noting
that Bitcoin mining is Bent’s field of expertise. He is himself a
miner and is involved with some mayor Bitcoin mining companies.
According to Ben, there definitely have been mining farms that
operated in mainland China and moved to the US. And sizable
operations, at that. He thinks that maybe the Chinese didn’t move
all the hashrate to the U.S., but they definitely moved “a material
ammount.” He also believes that, even after the ban, there’s
definitely hashrate still in China. According to Carvalho, there’s
anecdotal evidence that contradicts the theory, but it’s only
anecdotal. “We don’t have enough information about China,” he says.
Bent agrees and adds that, due to the permissionless nature of the
Bitcoin network, we can never truly know what’s happening. However,
“foreign buyers are getting access to new gen miners.” At least to
the preorders. Take that for what it’s worth. BTC price chart
for 11/08/2021 on Bittrex | Source: BTC/USD on TradingView.com
Conclusion And Other China Theories According to Carvalho, using
web traffic measuring tools, you could check that traffic to the
Chinese mining pools is roughly the same as before the ban. The
signing of blocks is manipulatable. “The only reason we know who
mines what is because they say they mined it,” he says. What does
this mean? Are the Chinese already mining with? Is there an
increase in unsigned blocks? Or are they just signing them as
non-Chinese entities? They could’ve been planning this for a long
time, setting the pieces in place. The TFTC host poses an
alternative theory. This one’s based on his conversation with Edwar
Evenson from Braiins, who lived in China. According to Evenson,
this year marked the 100th anniversary of the CCP, and the theme of
the celebration is “harmony.” And, sadly, they consider Bitcoin
mining as unharmonious. That’s the reason they banned it. Once the
anniversary passes, they’ll quietly allow it back. Maybe, but
according to Carvalho, the Chinese quietly returning to mining is
exactly what would happen if any of the two theories are true. He
admits that, to confirm his theory, serious research that he can’t
perform needs to be done. So, he leaves it open to the public to
step up and do it. NewsBTC did its part by publishing this article.
It’s your turn now. Featured Image by panayota from Pixabay -
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