Why Bitcoin Bears Might Not Get To Buy New Lows
24 Septiembre 2021 - 04:47PM
NEWSBTC
The crypto community is locked in debate over: Is Bitcoin in a bull
or bear market? The debate will rage on until either a new high or
new low is made. The current price action is bearish, which gives
the impression that sellers are in charge. The news cycle, and
sentiment doesn’t help the picture for bulls. But there is one
“theory” that suggests a lower low won’t be made. Mapping Out From
The Bear Market Bottom To The Bull Cycle Top Recently, Elliott Wave
International held an Open House on their Crypto Pro Group led by
analyst Tony Carrion. Tony nailed the recent 20% crypto market
plunge as part of a C-wave and a short-term call. A longer term
play looks ahead toward a positive Q4, where the analyst expects a
wave five to develop and “greater price appreciation to occur.” If
it fails to do so, then the pattern might not be valid. Related
Reading | Build Base Or Bust? Bitcoin Touches Down On Parabolic
Support The recent accurate call of a C-wave prompted a deeper
analysis of the longer term play. According to Elliott Wave Theory
a primary motive wave consists of five waves, with odd-numbered
impulse waves following the primary trend. This is Bitcoin we’re
talking about, so the primary trend has almost always been up. A
new motive wave and series of impulse waves began at a bear market
bottom. Waves two and four are also bearish consolidation phases
that move counter to the trend. Tony’s idea is that the run up in
early 2019 was wave one, wave two ended with Black Thursday (take
note of this), and wave three ended at $65,000 in April. Wave four
should move sideways, while wave two was sharp | Source: BTCUSDT on
TradingView.com Why Bitcoin Bears May Salivate Over New Lows
Forever What isn’t yet clear, is when wave four ends, and wave five
begins. However, when reviewing some facts regarding Elliott Wave
rules and guidelines, along with several important factors related
to the current market cycle, things begin to fit the mold. The best
argument bears have for more downside in Bitcoin, is a crash back
to $20,000 and a lower low scenario – because that’s what happened
after the 2019 peak to Black Thursday. However, Elliott Wave rules
state that wave two and four will alternate in severity. Out of
wave two and wave four, one correction will be sharp, the other
sideways. Looking at the top and bottom of the last correction,
sharp is an understatement, especially compared to the most recent
“top.” Each impulse wave also behaves similar with five smaller
sub-waves | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com If wave two was
sharp, then wave four will be sideways, according to the
alternation in an impulse rule. “It primarily instructs the analyst
not to assume, as most people tend to do, that because the last
market cycle behaved in a certain manner, this one is sure to be
the same.” Related Reading | Astro Crypto: Summer Bitcoin Slump
Could Bring Bountiful Fall Harvest Also as part of the alternation
rule, wave one, three, and five will alternate to a certain degree.
Elliott Wave theory says that wave one and five will made in both
time and magnitude, especially have wave three was an extended
wave. When comparing what would be wave one with wave three, it is
easy to see how extended wave three would have been. All of this
information suggests that there won’t be a lower low, and wave five
should rally around 350% from where wave four ends. This is all
great news for bulls who were hoping for $100,000 Bitcoin. The only
problem? When it is all over, if the pattern is accurate, the worst
bear market ever is coming next. Follow @TonySpilotroBTC on Twitter
or via the TonyTradesBTC Telegram. Content is educational and
should not be considered investment advice. Featured image
from iStockPhoto, Charts from TradingView.com
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