Bank of Russia Signals Potential Rate Cut This Year Amid Global Slowdown -- Update
22 Marzo 2019 - 8:08AM
Noticias Dow Jones
--The Bank of Russia left its key interest rate at 7.75% but
warned of a potential cut this year amid a global slowdown
--The central bank expects weaker annual inflation than
previously predicted, at 4.7%-5.2% from 5.0%-5.5%
--It could not yet say what impact a value-added tax hike in
January would have on inflationary pressure
By Paul Hannon
The Bank of Russia said it may cut its key interest rate this
year, becoming the latest central bank to change tack in the
presence of slowing global economic growth and weaker inflation
prospects.
Policy makers Friday left their key interest rate at 7.75%, but
said they now expect consumer prices to rise less rapidly this year
than they did previously.
"If the situation develops in line with the baseline forecast,
the Bank of Russia admits the possibility of turning to cutting the
key rate in 2019," they said in a statement.
Bank of Russia's head, Elvira Nabiullina, said following the
rate decision that the bank had adjusted annual inflation
expectations to 4.7%-5.2% from 5.0%-5.5% previously.
"Short-term inflationary risks have softened," she said. "Due to
these tendencies, we expect to see inflation for 2019 on a lower
level."
She also said that the peak of inflation this year will extend
into March and April, but added that the speed at which prices were
rising had slowed.
"There are grounds to assume that decisions taken last year to
boost the key interest rate will likely be sufficient in order to
guarantee the return of annual inflation to its target--close to
4%--in the first half of 2020," she said.
Ms. Nabiullina added that the central bank could not yet say
what kind of influence a value-added tax hike in January would have
on inflationary pressures.
The central bank last raised its key interest rate in December,
when it warned further increases might be needed to keep price
rises in check. Its change of heart since then follows similar
reassessments by the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central
Bank.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve left its key policy rate in a
range between 2.25% and 2.5% and indicated that it is unlikely to
raise rates this year. In late 2018, officials had signaled they
expected between one and three increases this year.
Two weeks ago, the European Central Bank went further, saying it
would launch new stimulus to support the eurozone economy via cheap
loans for banks. It also said it expected to keep its key interest
rate at minus 0.4% at least through 2019, a longer horizon than
before.
Those shifts by the world's most powerful central banks have set
off a domino effect, with policy makers in a number of developing
countries now considering rate cuts, having pushed borrowing costs
higher last year.
Central banks in a number of emerging markets countries followed
the Fed in tightening their monetary policy last year, hoping to
avoid an outflow of capital to the U.S. that would see their
currencies weaken, and inflation accelerate as prices of imported
goods rose.
"The revision of interest rates path by the US Fed and other
central banks in advanced economies reduces the risks of persistent
capital outflows from emerging markets," the Bank of Russia
said.
Thomas Grove contributed to this article.
Write to Paul Hannon at paul.hannon@wsj.com.
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
March 22, 2019 09:53 ET (13:53 GMT)
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