U.S. Consumer Sentiment Held Steady in Early July -- Update
19 Julio 2019 - 11:22AM
Noticias Dow Jones
By Harriet Torry
WASHINGTON -- American households remained relatively confident
about the economy in early July, and their expectations for
longer-run inflation firmed.
The University of Michigan said Friday its index of consumer
sentiment was 98.4 in July, up slightly from June's final reading
of 98.2.
That fell short of the 99.0 economists expected for the month's
preliminary reading; a final figure for July will be released Aug.
2.
"Consumers continue to feel very good about their personal
finances," said Amherst Pierpont Securities economist Stephen
Stanley, "but somewhat less positive than before about the broad
economic outlook."
The details of Friday's report were mixed. An index tracking
sentiment about current economic conditions declined slightly in
July, while an index tracking expectations about the future picked
up marginally from June.
A wide partisan split persists in the Michigan survey between
downbeat Democrats and upbeat Republicans. The overall sentiment
index for self-identified Democrats was 75.5 in July, versus 121.5
for self-identified Republicans. Independents were in the middle,
clocking in at 100.5 for the month.
In the July survey, longer-term inflation expectations reversed
a dip seen in the prior month. Consumers now expect inflation of
2.6% in five to 10 years, up from 2.3% in June, while household
expectations for near-term inflation weakened slightly in July to
2.6%.
"The Federal Reserve cannot cite these data as evidence of any
worrying shift in inflation expectations," said Ian Shepherdson,
chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, in a note to
clients.
The Fed is widely expected to lower what is now a federal-funds
target-rate range of 2.25% to 2.50% at the end of this month. Weak
inflation is one factor giving central-bank officials concern,
alongside risks from general business uncertainty and trade-policy
worries.
Year-over-year inflation, as measured by the Commerce
Department's personal-consumption expenditures price index, was
1.5% in May, falling short of the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Write to Harriet Torry at harriet.torry@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
July 19, 2019 12:07 ET (16:07 GMT)
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