Eurozone PMI Signals Easing Economic Downturn
21 Mayo 2020 - 03:39AM
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The euro area private sector remained stuck in its deepest
downturn ever in May, but the pace of decline slowed as the economy
began to partly emerge from the coronavirus lockdown, flash survey
results from IHS Markit showed Thursday.
The composite output index rose to 30.5 in May from a record low
13.6 in April. The score has remained below 50 no-change mark
signaling third consecutive fall in output.
The prior low of 36.2 was seen during the peak of the global
financial crisis in February 2009. Nonetheless, the latest reading
was above economists' forecast of 25.0.
The services Purchasing Managers' Index advanced to a
three-month high of 28.7 from 12.0 in the previous month. This was
the highest score since February and above forecast of 25.0.
However, social distancing and other control measures continued
to hit businesses such as hotels, restaurants, travel and
tourism.
At the same time, the factory PMI climbed to 39.5 from 33.4 in
April. The expected score was 38.0.
Ongoing measures to control the spread of the coronavirus, or
Covid-19, were cited as the major cause for falling output,
resulting in widespread closures of businesses, disrupting supply
chains and hitting demand.
GDP is likely to fall at an unprecedented rate in the second
quarter, down by around 10 percent compared to the first quarter,
but the rise in the PMI adds to expectations that the downturn
should continue to moderate as lockdown restrictions are further
lifted, Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit
said. The partial rebound in the composite PMI suggested that the
economy is now on a slow road to recovery, Jessica Hinds, an
economist at Capital Economics, said. But even as lockdown measures
are gradually lifted, the level of activity is likely to be well
below "normal" for some months yet.
Looking by region, rates of output decline eased across France
and Germany.
The French private sector contracted in May but the pace of
reduction eased considerably from April's unprecedented fall as
some firms began to reopen.
The flash composite output index rose sharply to 30.5 in May
from 11.1 in April. However, the score was moderately below
economists' forecast of 32.0.
The softer decrease in output was driven by slower declines in
output in both the manufacturing and service sectors.
The services PMI advanced to 29.4 in May from 10.2 in April. The
expected reading was 27.8.
Likewise, the manufacturing PMI came in at 40.3 in May versus
31.5 a month ago and the forecast of 36.1.
Germany's private sector continued to shrink in May, albeit the
rate of decline eased from the record fall seen in April.
The headline flash composite output index climbed to 31.4 from
April's record low of 17.4. But the score was below economists'
forecast of 34.1.
Despite an improvement, the score was the second-lowest figure
since comparable data first compiled in 1998.
Data showed steep falls in manufacturing production and services
business activity, though in both cases the rates of contraction
were discernibly slower than in April amid the reopening of parts
of the economy.
The services PMI improved to 31.4 from 16.2 in the previous
month. The expected level was 26.6.
At the same time, the manufacturing PMI came in at 36.8 versus
34.5 in the previous month and below forecast of 39.2.
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