ATLANTA, Jan. 26, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- January is
normally the quietest month of the year for vehicle sales as buyers
take a break after holiday shopping, but according to a Cox
Automotive forecast released today, January
2021 U.S. auto sales are expected to be healthy, up from
last month and down less than 4% from January 2020.
The forecast volume decline of 3.7% from last year—a drop of
nearly 40,000 units—is relatively mild and driven in part by one
less selling day versus 2020. The January
2021 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of sales is
forecast by Cox Automotive to be 16.4 million, down from last
January's 16.9 million level but up from last month's 16.3
million pace. According to Cox Automotive senior economist
Charlie Chesbrough, "The expected
month-over-month uptick in sales pace suggests the vehicle market
is starting the year on solid ground even with so much uncertainty
in the economy."
Consumer activity has kept the vehicle market on a strong
recovery path in recent months. Retail sales, which generally
account for 4-out-of-5 vehicles sold in the U.S. market, are
expected to remain strong in January. Positive economic news,
coupled with improving consumer confidence, is helping rebuild both
interest and ability to buy.
Fleet sales, on the other hand, were a large drag on auto sales
volume in 2020, and the trend is expected to continue in January.
Business and family travel remains well below 2020 levels, leading
rental car companies to delay fleet purchasing. Cox Automotive is
forecasting fleet sales to begin recovering later this year as
vaccine distribution improves over the next few months and more
travel is likely to follow.
Vehicle sales held up relatively well in 2020. The full-year
result, while down 14.5% year over year, was better than expected
thanks mostly to strong retail demand through the second half of
the year. Cox Automotive is forecasting full-year 2021 sales near
15.7 million, an increase of 8% from 2020, but the outlook remains
uncertain with many potential threats and unknowns facing vehicle
buyers.
Vehicle supply is one of the largest concerns. Thin inventories
remain a reality for many dealers and consumers, a result of
COVID-19 production disruptions, although the worst inventory
issues are in the rearview mirror now that most manufacturing sites
are operating near pre-pandemic levels. Issues in the global supply
chain persist, however, as news of a recent computer chip shortage
reveals. Other risks to auto sales include large waves of COVID-19
cases during the winter and a second dip in the economy.
January 2021 Sales Forecast
Highlights
- Vehicle sales are forecast to fall nearly 40,000 units, or
3.7%, compared to January 2020. The
volume drop from last month, however, is forecast to be
significant, nearly 32%. The month-over-month comparison is skewed
though, as December 2020 was among
the 10-best months for auto sales in the past decade, and December
is typically among the strongest sales months each year, whereas
January is among the weakest. A sizable month-over-month drop was
expected.
- The January 2021 SAAR is
estimated to be 16.4 million, below last year's 16.9 million level
but slightly above last month's 16.3 million pace. Car share is
forecast to fall further, while pickup trucks are forecast to gain
market share.
January 2021 Forecast
|
Sales
Forecast1
|
Market
Share
|
|
Segment
|
Jan-21
|
Jan-20
|
Dec-20
|
YOY%
|
MOM%
|
Jan-21
|
Dec-20
|
MOM
|
|
Mid-Size
Car
|
65,000
|
93,472
|
100,249
|
-30.5%
|
-35.2%
|
5.9%
|
6.2%
|
-0.3%
|
|
Compact
Car
|
65,000
|
87,039
|
99,239
|
-25.3%
|
-34.5%
|
5.9%
|
6.1%
|
-0.2%
|
|
Compact
SUV/Crossover
|
195,000
|
201,089
|
260,316
|
-3.0%
|
-25.1%
|
17.7%
|
16.1%
|
1.6%
|
|
Full-Size Pickup
Truck
|
185,000
|
165,824
|
261,744
|
11.6%
|
-29.3%
|
16.8%
|
16.2%
|
0.6%
|
|
Mid-Size
SUV/Crossover
|
195,000
|
187,605
|
277,381
|
3.9%
|
-29.7%
|
17.7%
|
17.1%
|
0.6%
|
|
Grand
Total2
|
1,100,000
|
1,142,543
|
1,617,670
|
-3.7%
|
-32.0%
|
|
|
|
|
|
1 Cox Automotive Industry
Insights data
|
2 Total includes segments
not shown
|
All percentages are based in raw volume, not daily selling
rate.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive Inc. makes buying,
selling, owning and using vehicles easier for everyone. The global
company's more than 27,000 team members and family of brands,
including Autotrader®, Clutch Technologies,
Dealer.com®, Dealertrack®, Kelley Blue Book®,
Manheim®, NextGear Capital®,
VinSolutions®, vAuto® and
Xtime®, are passionate about helping
millions of car shoppers, 40,000 auto dealer clients across five
continents and many others throughout the automotive industry
thrive for generations to come. Cox Automotive is a subsidiary of
Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately-owned, Atlanta-based company with annual revenues of
nearly $20 billion. www.coxautoinc.com
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SOURCE Cox Automotive