Barclays Research Examines How Life and Markets May Evolve after COVID in the 2021 Equity Gilt Study
25 Mayo 2021 - 02:00AM
Business Wire
Barclays Research today released the 66th edition of the Equity
Gilt Study (EGS), a flagship annual publication. Combining
market-leading macro analysis with a unique multi-asset dataset
spanning over 100 years, this year’s report examines how markets
and society may evolve after COVID-19.
In a chapter on monetary and fiscal policy, economists and
strategists explore the risks of a disorderly unwinding of
the extraordinary stimulus programmes put in place in the US and
euro area to counter the effects of the pandemic. Inflation spikes
and elevated debt loads could test policy-makers’ credibility as
they navigate the trade-offs between supporting growth and
preventing economies from overheating. Despite these risks,
Barclays’ strategists expect an orderly unwind to be the most
likely outcome.
In a chapter on debt sustainability, Barclays strategists
consider whether the benign outcomes for the US and Europe can be
repeated worldwide. They argue that debt loads eventually matter,
but more in some countries than others. They see low-growth,
high-rate emerging market economies such as Brazil, Turkey and Peru
as especially vulnerable to credit events over the next decade.
Away from debt dynamics, Barclays analysts focus on
restrictions on mobility and how the virus and its variants
have impaired people’s ability to move across international borders
without friction. A state of semi-permanent restrictions such as
testing requirements and vaccine passports could lead global
mobility to contract, affecting emerging economies
disproportionately. Domestic tourism, on the other hand, could
benefit.
The report also digs in to the new world of work. As
employers and employees shift to more flexible models, Barclays
experts weigh the implications for real estate and retail. The
report finds that demand for offices could drop by up to 20%, while
the residential property market will likely be buoyed for years to
come.
Commenting on the launch of this key report, Jeff Meli,
Global Head of Research at Barclays said:
“In this year’s Equity Gilt Study, Barclays experts explore how
the coronavirus crisis has reshaped the macro landscape, posing new
dilemmas for policy-makers in developed and emerging markets, as
they balance the need to support growth while keeping inflation in
check. We also look at how the pandemic has permanently altered
global mobility and office working.”
>>> Clients can gain access to the full Equity Gilt
Study report on Barclays Live >>> To learn more about our
Research offering and view recent insights, click here
Notes to editors:
Since 1956 Barclays’ Equity Gilt Study has provided uniquely
rich data, analysis and commentary on long-term asset returns in
the UK and US. Data for the UK goes back to 1899, while the US
data, provided by the Center for Research in Security Prices at the
University of Chicago, runs from 1925.
About Barclays:
Barclays is a British universal bank. We are diversified by
business, by different types of customers and clients, and by
geography. Our businesses include consumer banking and payments
operations around the world, as well as a full-service corporate
and investment bank.
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Ellie Austin ellie.austin@barclays.com +44 (0)20 7773
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