- Third month running: LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Legal Index
signals victory for President Biden
- But, sharply rising bankruptcy and consumer finance legal
trends in battleground states could turn tables
- Overall, benchmark Consumer Stress Legal Index holds steady
nationally as inflation holds
For the third month running, LegalShield’s Consumer Stress Legal
Index (CSLI) indicates that consumer stress levels in battleground
states are favoring a re-election for President Biden. However,
significant shifts in LegalShield’s bankruptcy and consumer finance
indices hint at a possible reversal of that trend.
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Consumer stress levels in key states hint
at potential Democratic victory in 2024 election (Graphic: Business
Wire)
In the last five presidential election years, a Democrat secured
or maintained the White House when consumer stress in battleground
states remained lower than the national average in October and
November. In May, consumer stress in battleground states was lower
than the national CSLI average which currently indicates a Democrat
win in November.
“The three-month trend is pointing to victory for Democrats,”
said Matt Layton, LegalShield senior vice president of consumer
analytics. “But, in 2016, battleground stress told a similar story
until the trend reversed in late summer signaling a Republican
win.”
LegalShield’s CSLI is based on a dataset of more than 35 million
consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002. On average,
LegalShield receives approximately 150,000 contacts each month from
consumers seeking legal help in more than 90 areas of law,
including key consumer issues.
Battleground States and the CSLI
This election cycle, LegalShield is reviewing consumer stress
levels on a politically geographic basis, separating red, blue, and
purple battleground states. LegalShield classified states based on
the outcome of the 2020 election. Battleground states for 2024 are
Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania
and Wisconsin.
In May, battleground state consumer stress ticked up by 0.4
points to 61.1, still 1.7 points below the national consumer stress
level. Blue state stress increased by 1.2 points, maintaining a
consistently higher level than the national index, while red state
stress remained relatively flat with a 0.1-point increase, staying
well below the national average.
Rising Battleground Bankruptcy and Consumer Finance Issues
Could Flip the Trend
A closer examination of the subindices feeding the benchmark
CSLI reveals an uptick in bankruptcy inquiries in battleground
states, diverging from the national average. Additionally,
consumers in these states are experiencing significantly more
stress related to consumer finance issues than those in red and
blue states, with stress levels more than 12 points higher than in
blue states and about 16 points higher than in red states. In May,
the Consumer Finance subindex in battleground states was more than
10 points higher than the national average.
“If the Bankruptcy or Consumer Finance subindex accelerate
specifically in battleground states, as they did in 2016, the CSLI
in battleground states is likely to rise above the national
average,” said Layton. “The mixed results of the subindices are a
sign that we might see a shift in the presidential
frontrunner.”
National CSLI Holds Steady with Inflation and Interest
Rates
Nationally, LegalShield’s benchmark CSLI remained almost flat in
May at 62.8, just 0.1 points below April.*
Macroeconomic indicators showed cooling inflation, strength in
hiring, and no change in interest rates.
“We expect consumers to face continued stress with interest
rates staying put,” said Layton. “With mounting debt, I expect our
network of attorneys will be spending a lot of time on these
household issues if we don’t see a change in the interest rate
environment.”
National Subindices: Bankruptcy’s Steady Climb, Consumer
Finance and Foreclosure Flat
Nationally, the Bankruptcy subindex saw little month-over-month
change, declining by 0.6 points to 31.2. However, the index has
seen a 21.5% year-over-year increase, continuing a steady rise in
bankruptcy inquiries since the end of 2021.
While May’s Consumer Finance subindex numbers show a 2.9%
year-over-year decrease, the subindex rose two points over April to
102.1, and has remained relatively flat in 2024.
The Foreclosure subindex retreated by 1.4 points in May to 36.4,
continuing a steady decline since last August, down 19.5% in that
period. Historically, inquiries regarding foreclosure have been
consistent since the spring of 2020, averaging 37.2.
*The April 2024 CSLI and subindices were slightly adjusted to
include inquiries not initially tallied in April’s index.
About the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index:
As part of LegalShield’s mission to ensure every person has
equal access to justice, we mine our data for insights policymakers
can use to make a real, positive impact in their decision making.
Released monthly, the LegalShield Consumer Stress Legal Index is
comprised of three subindices which reflect the demand for various
legal services. LegalShield’s dataset includes more than 35 million
consumer requests for legal assistance since 2002, averaging
approximately 150,000 calls received monthly. The CSLI uncovers the
daily challenges people are facing and provides actionable
intelligence to help policymakers and industry leaders bridge those
gaps.
About LegalShield:
For more than 50 years, LegalShield has provided everyday
Americans with easy and affordable access to legal advice, counsel,
protection, and representation. Serving millions, LegalShield is
one of the world's largest platforms for legal, identity, and
reputation management services protecting individuals and
businesses across North America. Founded in 1972, LegalShield, and
its privacy management product, IDShield, has provided individuals,
families, businesses, and employers with tools and services needed
to affordably live a just and secure life. Through technology and
innovation, LegalShield is disrupting the traditional legal system
and transforming how and where people receive legal guidance and
services, with access to thousands of qualified, trusted attorneys
and law firms. LegalShield and IDShield are products of Pre-Paid
Legal Services, Inc. To learn more about LegalShield and IDShield,
visit LegalShield.com and IDShield.com.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240626369146/en/
LegalShield Media Contact: Hollon Kohtz, Director of
Communications hollonkohtz@pplsi.com