Here’s When Bitcoin Could Peak In This Accelerated Bull Run: Analyst
06 Mayo 2024 - 3:15AM
NEWSBTC
The current Bitcoin price behavior and its deviations from expected
cyclical patterns remain a central theme of analysis. Crypto
analyst Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) recently shared new insights on
X concerning Bitcoin’s potential peak during the ongoing bull run,
which is progressing at an atypical pace compared to historical
data. When Will Bitcoin Peak This Cycle? In a detailed post, Rekt
Capital pointed out that as of mid-March 2024, Bitcoin had not only
reached new all-time highs but had done so approximately 260 days
ahead of its traditional halving-induced cycles. This marked a
significant acceleration. “When Bitcoin rallied to new All Time
Highs in mid-March 2024, Bitcoin was accelerating in its cycle by
260 days compared to traditional Halving Cycles,” stated Rekt
Capital. However, this rapid pace has not been sustained. Over the
past two months, Bitcoin has been in a phase of consolidation,
which has altered its trajectory. The acceleration advantage has
decreased to about 210 days compared to previous cycles. This
deceleration is a critical factor, as it could lead to a
re-synchronization with the typical halving cycle. Typically, BTC
peaks 518-546 days after a halving event. Related Reading: Bitcoin
Relative Strength Jumps To 40%: 10x Research Reveals Next Steps
From Here The analyst suggests shifting the predictive focus from
just halving events to the periods after Bitcoin surpasses its
previous all-time highs. Historically, BTC price tends to reach a
bull market top within 266 to 315 days after breaking these
thresholds. Given that this milestone was achieved again in
mid-March 2024, the projected window for the next bull market peak
could be set between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
Nevertheless, a notable trend is the increasing duration for which
Bitcoin maintains levels beyond its old highs. In 2013, this period
lasted 268 days, in 2017 it extended to 280 days, and by 2021, it
had increased to 315 days. This pattern suggests an incremental
extension of approximately 14 to 35 days per cycle. “Historically,
the amount of days that Bitcoin has spent beyond old All Time Highs
has increased by approximately 14 days to 35 days,” explained Rekt
Capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom In? Retracement From
$73,800 Is Deeper And Took Longer To Form Adding these increments
to the initial range of 266 to 315 days post-old highs, the peak
could potentially extend to between 280 and 350 days post-breakout.
This adjustment shifts the expected peak time frame to between
mid-December 2024 and early March 2025. Potential Synchronization
With Halving Cycles Despite the current accelerated cycle, there
remains a possibility that further deceleration could align Bitcoin
more closely with its halving cycle. In past cycles, such as those
between 2015-2017 and 2019-2021, Bitcoin peaked at 518 and 546 days
post-halving, respectively. If Bitcoin’s rate of acceleration
continues to decrease, the cycle may eventually resynchronize,
potentially delaying the peak to between mid-September and
mid-October 2025. Rekt Capital elaborates, “But if Bitcoin
continues to reduce its current acceleration in the cycle, it would
resynchronize with traditional Halving cycles.” This could result
in a peak more aligned with historical patterns, diverging from the
current accelerated timeline. At press time, BTC traded at $64,262.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD)
Gráfica de Acción Histórica
De Abr 2024 a May 2024
Bitcoin (COIN:BTCUSD)
Gráfica de Acción Histórica
De May 2023 a May 2024