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6 días hace
Crude Oil Sharp Rebound Sets Stage for Further Upside
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025
🔸 After a 31.6% drop, crude rebounded sharply and is now consolidating, setting the stage for a possible second rally leg above resistance.
Crude oil has been consolidating for the past four days or so following a sharp one-day bullish reversal last Wednesday. A corrective low of $55.23 was established on that day thereby completing a $25.52 or 31.6% decline in the price of crude when measured from the most recent swing high of $80.76 from mid-January. That low completed a 127.2% extension (close enough) of the largest advance (from May 2023 swing low) since the 2022 peak and touched the lower line of a descending parallel trend channel.
Consolidation Sets Stage for Next Run
On Tuesday, the price of crude oil continued to compress as the day’s trading range was the smallest since the early-April interim swing high, which was followed by a sharp drop to $55.23. At the time of this writing, crude is set to end the day’s session with a narrow range inside day with a low of $60.92 and a high of $62.12.
A decline below the low of the day has Monday’s low of $60.68 as the next lower target, followed by Friday’s low of $59.54. On the upside, there is initial potential resistance around Monday’s high of $62.74, followed by last Thursday’s high of $63.45. Thursday’s high just about completed a 50% retracement of the latest downswing.
Second Leg up on Horizon?
An intraday chart (not shown) provides more clues about what price levels to watch. There has been one sharp rally from the lows so far followed by a pullback that completed a little more than a 50% retracement before crude began to strengthen. Once the current consolidation phase is complete it looks like there could be a continuation of the rally from the bottom.
There has been only one leg up from that $55.23 low so far, and at least a second leg up would better complete the counter-trend rally. A breakout above today’s high could begin the next leg up. However, that depends on support being retained at or above last Thursday’s low of $58.86.
Largest Bearish Correction Since May 2023
The recent decline was the largest bearish correction in crude oil since May 2023, and it ended with a sharp rally and one-day bullish reversal with a strong closing price. It seems like there is a good chance that the subsequent rally may eventually test resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at $66.18, or the 50-Day MA, now at $68.29. Since support was seen at the bottom of the trend channel, there is a chance that resistance may be tested around the top channel line. Nevertheless, channel analysis is one piece of technical evidence for at least a second leg up for the rally.
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6 días hace
Natural Gas Bulls Eye Breakout from Support of Falling Channel
By: Bruce Powers | April 15, 2025
🔸 Natural gas found support near $3.22, forming a bullish hammer that suggests potential reversal, with upside targets near moving averages and prior highs.
Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Tuesday before finding support at $3,22 and bouncing. Support was seen at a lower descending channel line (red highlight) established by extending the original channel (blue trendlines) by 25%. The low for the day essentially completed an 88.6% Fibonacci extension of the prior upswing. Natural gas is on track to close in a bullish position, in the top third of the day’s trading range. If it does so, a bullish hammer candlestick pattern will be generated.
Bull Hammer Breakout Above $3.38
An upside breakout will be triggered on a rally above today’s high. That would put natural gas in a position to eventually test resistance around the top of the channel. For now, the intersection of two trendline at $3.80 can be used as a proxy for the top of the channel. That price level is another price level defined by last Wednesday’s high of $3.83.
Furthermore, better clarity is provided by potential resistance around the 20-Day MA, now at $3.82, and the 50-Day MA at $3.90. Note that the 20-Day MA is falling and will continue to represent a lower price area. It becomes a more significant potential resistance zone if a similar price level is indicated by other analysis.
Rally From Bottom of Channel Targets Top of Range
There is a chance that bullish signs following the completion of an 88.6% retracement may mark the end of the bearish correction. Keep in mind that advances from current levels are counter-trend rallies within a decline trend channel. A rally above the 20-Day MA, followed by a daily close above it would be supportive of the bullish thesis. Earlier signs of strength would be indicated on a rally above Monday’s high of $3. 61. That price would be an initial short-term target following a breakout above today’s high.
Bullish Signs Need Confirmation
Despite the potential for a bullish reversal from a key support zone, a trigger above today’s high is needed for confirmation of strength. There is always a possibility that the bulls cannot maintain control and the bearish correction continues to lower prices. An area of potential support confluence is shown on the chart from $3.08 to $2.99. That price range includes the potentially significant 200-Day MA as possible support at $3.05.
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6 días hace
Crude Oil Continues to See Basing Pattern
By: Christopher Lewis | April 15, 2025
🔸 The crude oil market continues to see a lot of noisy trading, as the market continues to see a lot of traders trying to form a bottom in this market that has been slammed as of late.
CL/WTI Technical Analysis
The light sweet crude oil market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Tuesday but has turned right back around. I really think at this point in time, we are probably more or less looking at this as a potential consolidation area, maybe a basing pattern. It is worth noting that the volume has picked up a little bit. So that helps with the idea of accumulation as well.
I think the $63 level remains somewhat important, and I’m pretty sure we’re $60 itself as well. If we can break above $63, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $65 level, which, of course, had previously been support and should now be resistant. There are still a lot of concerns about global demand, so that, of course, continues to keep this market somewhat subdued.
Brent Technical Analysis
Brent looks very much the same as it is trading just below the $65 level, an area that of course has a little bit of psychology attached to it, but if we can break above $66, then it opens up the possibility of a move to the $70 level. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time are buying opportunities, especially with the $60 level hanging out just below, which, of course, is a large round psychologically significant figure that a lot of people would be paying close attention to.
And of course, an area where we had seen a lot of volume the last time we were there. So, with that being said, I think you have to like the idea of a consolidation area here. Now we have to see if we can get some type of good news to get the idea of demand picking up to drive prices higher.
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7 días hace
Natural Gas Slumps Toward 200-Day Moving Average Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 14, 2025
🔸 Natural gas broke to $3.31 with bearish signals increasing, likely setting up a test of multi-indicator support around the 200-Day MA near $3.05.
Further bearish signs were indicated for natural gas on Monday as it dropped to a new corrective low of $3.31. Signs of weakness will likely to be confirmed today by a new lower daily closing price, which may be below the 78.6% support zone at $3.40, and possibly below the lower line of a falling trend channel. Note that the channel is extended on the bottom by 25%. The extended lower line is where support for the decline was previously, from last Wednesday.
Bearish Momentum Dominates
Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks poised to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Currently, the low for the day is $3.31. Monday’s session began with a brief rally above Friday’s high to a high of $3.61. A retest of resistance around the center line of a falling parallel trend channel occurred before sellers took back control. A bearish outside day subsequently formed as Friday’s low was busted. Furthermore, the lower line of the descending parallel channel has also failed to hold as support.
Test of 200-Day Moving Average Likely
This puts natural gas in a position to possibly test support around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.05. There are several other indicators pointing out that price zone as possible support. A falling ABCD pattern completes at $3.08, while a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level is at $3.03, coinciding with support from the January 31 swing low at $2.99. In addition, a breakout of a symmetrical triangle pattern triggered on a move above $3.02 in November. Therefore, along with the last-January swing low, the current decline may provide a retest of that breakout zone.
Multiple Signs of Support Around $3.05
The 200-Day MA was last reclaimed in September of last year and that was followed by a successful test of the line as support later in October. Since then, the price of natural gas has not approached the 200-Day line. Therefore, given the indicator confluence around the 200-Day line, the expectation is for support to be seen. Moreover, although a decline below the line is a bearish sign. Natural gas has been falling since a high of $4.90 and it may run out of bearish momentum by the time it tests the 200-Day MA.
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7 días hace
Oil rises marginally on tariff exemption, Chinese crude imports
By: Reuters | April 14, 2025
HOUSTON (Reuters) -Oil prices settled slightly higher on Monday on exemptions for some electronics from U.S. tariffs and data showing a sharp rebound in China’s crude imports in March, but gains were limited by concerns that the trade war could weaken global economic growth and dent fuel demand.
Brent crude futures closed 12 cents, or 0.2%, higher at $64.88 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled 3 cents higher at $61.53.
Late on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration granted exclusions from steep tariffs on smartphones, computers and some other electronic goods imported largely from China. It was the latest in a series of policy announcements that imposed tariffs and then walked them back, spurring uncertainty for investors and businesses.
Trump said on Sunday he would announce the tariff rate on imported semiconductors over the next week.
Meanwhile, China’s crude oil imports in March rebounded sharply from the previous two months and were up nearly 5% from a year earlier, data showed on Monday, boosted by Iranian oil and a rebound in Russian deliveries.
However, Brent and WTI have lost about $10 a barrel since the start of the month and analysts have lowered oil price forecasts as the trade war between the world’s two largest economies has intensified.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in a monthly report on Monday that global oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, down by 150,000 bpd from last month’s forecast, citing trade tariffs among the reasons.
"OPEC cutting its global demand forecast just underscores the troubled outlook we have here from the tariffs and all the other uncertainty in the market," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital.
"Markets are still continuing to sort out the impact of the tariffs and this escalation with China," Kilduff said.
Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $63 and WTI to average $59 for the remainder of 2025, with Brent averaging $58 and WTI $55 in 2026.
It sees global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 rising by only 300,000 bpd year on year, analysts led by Daan Struyven said in a note, adding that slowing demand is expected to be most pronounced for petrochemical feedstocks.
UBS reduced its Brent forecasts by $12 a barrel to $68. At the same time, it expects WTI to trade at $64 a barrel. JPMorgan lowered its oil price forecasts for 2025 and next year, citing higher production from OPEC+ and weaker demand.
The Brent price spread between December 2025 and December 2026 has flipped into contango as investors have priced in oversupply and demand concerns, said BMI, part of Fitch Solutions. In a contango market, front-month prices are lower than those in future months, indicating no shortage of supply.
Potentially supporting oil prices, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on Friday the United States could stop Iranian oil exports as part of Trump’s plan to pressure Tehran over its nuclear programme.
Iran and the U.S. held "positive" and "constructive" talks in Oman on Saturday and agreed to reconvene next week, officials said over the weekend.
Also hurting prices, South Bow detailed plans for a controlled restart of the Keystone pipeline on Monday after an oil leak last week forced it to shut the key conduit for crude oil between Canada and the United States.
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1 semana hace
WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 12, 2025
🔸 Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 8, 2025.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 157.4k, down 32.5k.
Last week’s downward momentum continued until Wednesday this week when West Texas Intermediate crude found buyers at $55, where horizontal support goes back a couple of decades. If this was breached, the next layer of support would lie at low-$50s, and then low-$40s.
Wednesday, the crude printed $55.12 intraday, only to reverse higher to close the session at $62.35. By the end of the week, it closed at $61.50/barrel, down 0.8 percent for the week.
A rally is possible near term. The best that could happen for now is strength toward $65-$66, which was breached six sessions ago. This horizontal support goes back years, with buyers also having shown up there last September.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to April 4th decreased 122,000 barrels per day week-over-week to 13.458 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6th. Crude imports dropped as well, down 277,000 b/d to 6.2 mb/d. As did stocks of gasoline and distillates – down 1.6 million barrels and 3.5 million barrels respectively to 236 million barrels and 111.1 million barrels. Crude inventory, however, rose 2.6 million barrels to 442.3 million barrels. Refinery utilization increased seven-tenths of a percentage point to 86.7 percent.
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1 semana hace
NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 12, 2025
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 6150 is immediately trading down about 14% for the year from last year's settlement of 7172. Up to now, this market has been declining for 3 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 6522 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in April is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 7228 and it has broken last month's low falling to 5512 while it is still trading below last month's low of 6522.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during January. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2023 moving into 2025. Prominently, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6175 and support forming below at 5788. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of April 7th at 5512, which was down 12 weeks from the high made back during the week of January 13th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed lower. We are trading below the Weekly Momentum Indicators warning that the decline is very significant and we need to pay attention to the timing and reversals. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. The broader perspective, this current rally into the week of January 13th reaching 7939 has exceeded the previous high of 7288 made back during the week of November 4th. Nonetheless, that high was actually lower than the previous high made the week of October 7th suggesting this market has really been running out of sustainable buying for right now. We have seen a rally thus far from the last low of 6653 for the past 20 weeks. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune, however, the market remains strong at this time. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 20 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2024. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7939 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 8767 back during April 2024. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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1 semana hace
Natural Gas Forms Bullish Pattern After Retesting Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 11, 2025
🔸 A failed breakdown and bullish hikkake pattern suggest natural gas may be reversing higher, with key resistance levels and Fibonacci targets coming into play.
Natural gas pulled back to retest support on Friday around the bottom of a descending trend channel and a 78.6% retracement level. Once a low of $3.39 was established buyers took back control and drove the price of natural gas back above Thursday’s low of $3.47. Notice that the lower channel line and 78.6% retracement are marking approximately the same potential support level today. The fact that two methods, including one dynamic trend indicator, mark the same potential support area is a bullish sign. And more so given the subsequent intraday advance that followed.
Forms Potentially Bullish Hammer
At the time of this writing, natural gas continues to trade above the midpoint of the day’s trading range and looks likely to end the day with a potentially bullish hammer or doji hammer candlestick pattern. The high for the day was $3.58. Earlier in the session a breakdown of an inside day pattern from Thursday triggered, resulting in a test of support as mentioned above. Since a potentially bullish one-day pattern followed, today’s closing price is likely to be above Thursday’s low of $3.47. This sets up a potentially bullish pattern heading into next week.
Three-Day Bullish Combo Forms
Nonetheless, it is not just today’s pattern that is potentially bullish, it is also the combination with the patterns of the prior two days. Since natural gas is likely to close inside yesterday’s range and in the top half of today’s price range, the bearish breakdown shows signs of a failed pattern. The three-candle combination is a potentially bullish hikkake pattern. It can be both a reversal or continuation pattern and it will trigger on a rally above Thursday’s high of $3.75.
However, an advance above today’s high can provide an earlier valid bullish signal regardless of the hikkake pattern being present. Given the three-period combination, it is a potentially powerful short-term pattern. Of course, a drop below today’s low is short-term bearish and indicates a failure of the potentially bullish pattern
Potential Resistance at 50-Day Moving Average
Initial upside targets start with the four-day high of $3.83 and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.89. A declining trendline at the top of the channel may also be around the 50-Day line when approached, and it may provide clues. Subsequently, if an upside breakout of the downtrend line triggers the 50% retracement at $4.12 becomes a potential target, followed by an interim swing high and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4.26 and $4.30, respectively.
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2 semanas hace
Crude Oil Rebounds After Testing Long-Term Channel Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 10, 2025
🔸 A sharp rebound after testing a long-term channel suggests crude oil may be stabilizing, though further volatility and support tests remain possible.
Crude oil completed a $25.53 or 31.6% decline from the most recent swing high of $80.76 on Wednesday, with a low of $55.23. That price level was a successful test of support at the lower line of a long-term descending parallel trend channel. Given the subsequent bullish reaction following the low it seems that the market recognized the price represented by the lower channel line. The subsequent intraday rally surpassed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the internal downswing and got halfway to the 50% retracement at $63.86 on Thursday, today, and established a higher daily high of $63.45 and higher daily low of $58.86.
Volatility Likely to Continue
Given the significant increase in volatility seen since the start of the one-day bearish reversal last Thursday, volatility may continue for a while longer as the market digests the implications. Further tests of recent lows as support, if it occurs, should begin to provide some indication of what might come next. However, in general, since the lower end of the channel was reached, followed by a sharp bullish reversal and after a significant decline, it seems likely that a bottom, or close to a bottom has been established.
Additional Declines to Test Support Remains a Risk
Nonetheless, since the lower channel line is falling, additional tests of the line as support could occur below the $55.23 low. Therefore, a drop below that low may not see the same response as a continuation signal that occurs earlier in a trend. There is also potential support a little below Wednesday’s low at $55.00. That is the 127.2% (square root of 161.8%) extension of the bearish retracement starting from the 2023 peak of $95.50.
Largest Decline Since 2023
The current correction was the largest on a percentage basis since May 2023. It surpassed the two prior corrections that saw declines in the price of crude oil of 25.3% and 29%. Since the correction occurred along with a breakdown below long-term support and reached a 50-month low, it adds to a bearish thesis. However, that could take some time to play out and, in the meantime, it favors rallies to test prior support levels as resistance, or consolidation. A weekly closing price below the prior long-term support of $62.07 would further confirm a long-term breakdown on the weekly time frame.
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2 semanas hace
Natural Gas Faces Bearish Pressure Below Key Trendlines
By: Bruce Powers | April 10, 2025
🔸 Despite recent buying near $3.34, natural gas struggles beneath resistance, and failure to rally above $3.88 could lead to a deeper corrective move.
Natural gas pulled back on Thursday, falling below Wednesday’s closing price to reach a low of $3.47. The low for the day was $3.47 and therefore natural gas is set to end the day with an inside-day pattern. It will also likely close below an uptrend line that is the bottom of a parallel trend channel (blue). At the time of this writing, natural gas continues to trade in the lower half of the day’s trading range and looks likely to close in a similar position.
Back Below Trendline
The likely daily close below the uptrend line is bearish, and more so since it follows a decline after finding resistance around a key short-term price zone. Wednesday’s high of $3.83 found resistance a little below the 50-Day MA, which had previously denoted as trend support. That is potentially bearish by itself as the progression of a bear trend typically rises to test prior support as resistance before it continues lower.
Also, notice that resistance was seen both yesterday and today around the middle line within the falling channel (red). There are also two prior interim price swing lows at $3.73 and $3.74, that now mark potential resistance. Finally, potential resistance around the 20-Week MA is at $3.71.
Bearish Continuation Remains a Risk
In other words, since a close below the trendline is bearish, and resistance was seen over several days in an area of confluence, there remains the potential for a bearish continuation of the corrective decline that followed the recent peak of $4.90. Moreover, a declining channel remains in place and natural gas continues to trade below both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.
Therefore, although a rise above today’s would be a sign of strength given that the uptrend line and middle channel line would have been reclaimed, natural gas would be heading into prior consolidation and potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, now at $3.88, and the 20-Day MA, at $3.92 currently. Moreover, the relative strength index (RSI) remains in a downtrend and may establish a lower swing high.
What Happens Next More Helpful
One or a few days more of price action should begin to clarify the developing patterns. A 78.6% retracement was completed yesterday on the way to support at $3.34. Since a sharp rally followed, it showed buyers back in charge. Therefore, new bullish signs, starting with a rally above today’s high, should be seen as follow-through to renewed strength. If not, indicated by a drop below $3.46 and $3.34, then further downside becomes likely.
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2 semanas hace
EIA Natural Gas Storage Build Of +57 Bcf Misses Estimates
By: Vladimir Zernov | April 10, 2025
Key Points:
🔸 Working gas in storage increased by +57 Bcf from the previous week.
🔸 At current levels, stocks are -40 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
🔸 Natural gas prices are moving lower after the release of the EIA report.
On April 10, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage increased by +57 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +60 Bcf.
More information in our economic calendar
At current levels, stocks are -450 Bcf less that last year and -40 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
Natural gas prices moved lower after the release of the EIA report. The storage build missed analyst estimates, but traders also focus on general outlook for the economy.
Oil markets and equity markets are under strong pressure in today’s trading session as traders continue to evaluate the recent moves on the tariff front. Tariffs on China remain intact, and traders worry that a trade war between the world’s biggest economies will hurt economic growth and put pressure on demand for energy.
From the technical point of view, natural gas did not manage to settle above the resistance at $3.70 – $3.75. If natural gas pulls back below the $3.60 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $3.35 – $3.40 range.
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2 semanas hace
The Economic Wall Around China. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 10, 2025
President Trump just built the great economic wall around China. After all the criticisms surrounding President’s Trump’s tariff war against our friends, by isolating China it is a reminder to our allies that perhaps the trade enemy was never the US that had the lowest tariff in the world but really against China. In fact, it might be a reminder to all our trade partners that they too have been treated unfairly by China who steals intellectual property puts on ridiculously high tariffs and creates barriers for them to trade in China. The move by President Trump to raise tariffs on China was so inspiring that it caused Goldman Sachs to rescind their recession calls because now they are starting to understand President Trump’s big picture strategy.
Trump set off a stock market buying short covering fire storm after he reported on Truth Social, “Based on the lack of respect that China has shown to the World’s Markets, I am hereby raising the Tariff charged to China by the United States of America to 125%, effective immediately. At some point, hopefully soon, China will realize that the days of ripping off the U.S.A., and other Countries, is no longer sustainable or acceptable. Conversely, and based on the fact that more than 75 Countries have called Representatives of the United States, including the Departments of Commerce, Treasury, and the USTR, to negotiate a solution to the subjects being discussed relative to Trade, Trade Barriers, Tariffs, Currency Manipulation, and Non-Monetary Tariffs, and that these Countries have not, at my strong suggestion, retaliated in any way, shape, or form against the United States, I have authorized a 90 day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period, of 10%, also effective immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter! What a nice, classy way to end that note. The world is paying attention.
Is the world going to start paying attention to oil inventories. Even though we love that oil prices came down reducing gasoline prices and inflation, we still must be concerned that the amount of the drop could cause some U.S. shale oil production. The son of shale pioneer, Scott Sheffield, the founder and former chief executive officer (CEO) of Pioneer Natural Resources, Bryan Sheffield, warned that America’s shale drillers need to cut drilling immediately. He said it’s a bloodbath and that shale producers need to hunker down until this tariff war situation plays out. Mr. Sheffield is understandably concerned about the recurring price drops, noting that producers often maintain production levels despite fluctuations in market prices. Several other producers I consulted expressed similar worries, pointing out that producers sometimes fail to adjust their output quickly enough in response to price changes, resulting in overproduction.
Other producers believe that some shale producers will be more cautious. Andy Stauffer of “Ozark Gas LLC” mentioned that volatility has occurred before, and he thinks producers will take a careful approach before cutting drilling. Others suggest that cutting should begin sooner and that shale oil producers may be overly optimistic about prospects. Despite the volatility, supply and demand indicate that supplies in the United States remain tight, as confirmed by yesterday’s Energy Information Administration weekly report. The Short-Term Energy outlook was not released yesterday because the numbers are being updated to reflect recent market developments.
Yet the volatility beyond all the tariff report was very friendly for petroleum. EIA Reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.6 million barrels from the previous week. At 442.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five-year average for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels from last week and are the same as the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels last week and are about 9% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.6 million barrels a day, down by 1.9% from the same period last year. Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.6 million barrels a day, down by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 7.3% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied was up 5.2% compared with the same four-week period last year.
Natural gas is also bouncing back on the risk on situation with more countries committing to buy US natural gas. This is going to be a huge win for producers. Natural gas report today!
Once again, I want to thank all the loyal readers of the Energy Report for your kind comments and input! Starting tomorrow I will be traveling until Easter Monday so I wish you all the best and will resume the reports then. I hope everyone has a happy and Blessed Easter. The Energy Report will take a bit of a hiatus, but we’ll be back ready to rock!
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2 semanas hace
Natural Gas Rebounds After Pullback to Key Support
By: Bruce Powers | April 9, 2025
• Natural gas reversed higher after hitting key support, forming a bullish outside day, but needs to close above $3.78 to confirm breakout momentum.
Natural gas fell to a new corrective low of $3.34 on Wednesday before turning up and triggering a one-day bullish reversal. The decline completed a 78.6% retracement at $3.40 before the bulls took back control. A bullish outside day was subsequently established and a two-day high of $3.83. During the advance natural gas rose above potential resistance around an uptrend line and a previous interim swing low and potential resistance at $3.73 (B). A daily close above Tuesday’s high of $3.78 will confirm the one-day breakout. Furthermore, a closing price above $3.73 will show strength but not as much as a close above Tuesdays high.
Resistance Seen Below 50-Day Moving Average
The day’s high of $3.83 attempted to test the 50-Day MA as resistance following a daily close below line last Friday. Although the recovery above the trendline is positive, the 50-Day line needs to be reclaimed if natural gas is going to have a chance to further strengthen. There is also the 20-Day MA that is a little higher at $3.94. Since the 20-Day line is falling there is the potential for it to drop below the 50-Day line. That would be a bearish sign if it is sustained.
Quick Recover Above Trendline
Since natural gas recovered the trendline in less than two days, and it followed a retracement to a key 78.6% retracement level, an eventual advance to test resistance around the downtrend line seems likely, at a minimum. Notice that support was found yesterday at the lower channel line, and it was again tested today with a brief undercut of the lower channel.
Moreover, although the middle line (dashed) of the channel was exceeded today, natural gas may close at or slightly below that line. If it does so, it will be the second day that the middle line was recognized. Notice that Tuesday’s low found support at the lower end of the channel.
Daily Close Above 20-Day Moving Average Needed for Bulls
Until there is a daily close above the 20-Day MA and the top falling trendline, there remains the possibility that bearish correction has not completed, and further tests of lows could occur. Another drop below the trendline would indicate that it was not successfully tested as support, reflecting continued underlying downward pressure.
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Crude Inventories Rise By 2.6 Million Barrels; Oil Markets Remain Under Strong Pressure
By: Vladimir Zernov | April 9, 2025
Key Points:
• Gasoline inventories declined by -1.6 million barrels.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 396.4 million barrels to 396.7 million barrels.
• Domestic oil production decreased from 13.58 million bpd to 13.458 million bpd.
On April 9, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by +2.6 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +2.2 million barrels.
More information in our economic calendar
Total motor gasoline inventories declined by -1.6 million barrels, compared to analyst forecast of -1.7 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 3.5 million barrels from the previous week.
U.S. crude oil imports declined by 277,000 bpd from the previous week, averaging 6.2 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.1 million bpd.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 396.4 million barrels to 396.7 million barrels. The U.S. continues to buy oil for strategic reserves, but replenishes them at a moderate pace despite the recent pullback in oil prices.
Domestic oil production decreased from 13.58 million bpd to 13.458 million bpd. It should be noted that production fell below the psychologically important 13.5 million bpd level.
WTI oil is trying to settle below the $56.50 level as traders react to the EIA report. It remains to be seen whether traders will focus on falling U.S. oil production as China introduced 84% tariffs on U.S. goods.
Brent oil pulled back below the $60.00 level as traders remained focused on tariff drama.
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China Slowdown. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 9, 2025
It could be the greatest economic showdown in history. The world’s largest economy is standing up for free trade in the world and while turmoil is raising concerns about a global economic slowdown, the reality is we’re seeing a readjustment to the global economy that could sharply reduce inflation, lower interest rates and get the government’s debt of the United States under control. President Trump slapped a 104% tariff on China over and above existing tariffs. Why, you might you ask? Because China dared to retaliate against the United States for standing up for free trade, not to mention the protection of intellectual property rights, but I digress.
Stock markets that were recovering yesterday on reports that countries were willing to negotiated soaring as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Larry Kudlow on Fox Business that President Trump “going to be directly involved in those negotiations”. The Treasury secretary said he hadn’t seen any specific offer from Japan but told Kudlow that, “50, 60, maybe almost 70 countries” have gotten in contact with the Trump administration looking to negotiate.
Stocks then plummeted in one of the biggest reversals in the S&P 500 futures history, on reports that China would not back down, raising concerns of a global economic slowdown. Yet while the panic is still running rampant there are things that the Federal Reserve could do to calm the waters, so it is not all doom and gloom. For example, cut interest rates! Are you out there Jerome? And there is the possibility that China could actually be blinking in this economic showdown even as it was announced China decided to respond by adding an 84% tariff on us goods.
Elizabeth MacDonald of Fox Business reported that that Dow, S&P, Nasdaq futures all turning around now as China calls for dialogue on tariffs and trade. Nasdaq futures are now in the green, others down fractionally. EMAC said that the, “rapid spike in 10-year and reports indicate that hedge funds have been selling substantial amounts of U.S. Treasury holdings. This is largely due to the unwinding of the “basis trade,” a leveraged arbitrage strategy that exploits price differences between treasury bonds and their futures contracts. Now she says that, “China’s top leaders have scheduled an emergency meeting to address economic concerns and stabilize capital markets. According to MacDonald this marks the first public high-level gathering since the tariff escalation.
Attendees will include members of the Chinese State Council and key regulatory bodies such as the People’s Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance, and commerce and securities regulators. Discussions are expected to focus on strategies to boost domestic consumption, support capital markets, and potentially introduce export tax rebates. No talk yet if dropping tariffs or trade barriers. China so far only offering existing tariff exemptions.
China’s stimulus package may provide temporary relief, but a deeper issue remains: China’s economy heavily relies on exporting goods to the United States. Although many may dislike the market turmoil, early indications suggest that the trade war is addressing some of the United States economy’s significant issues. One major concern for US consumers has been inflation, which has reached levels unseen since the 1970s.
Paul Volcker faced criticism for raising interest rates, causing initial discomfort, but ultimately helping to reduce inflation and increase consumer savings. Inflation diminishes prosperity for Americans, and if it can be controlled, the trade war might prove beneficial. Consumers will be getting big savings at the gas pump, that’s for sure. Yet with gas there is always a “but”.
That “but” was a report that the Keystone oil pipeline had to be shut down on Tuesday because of a leak in North Dakota. Some are concerned that the shutdown of the pipeline if it’s for an extended period of time could halt the flow of millions of gallons of crude oil from Canadian refineries to US refineries which could lead to higher gasoline prices.
Now there are some people that are saying that Saudi Arabia’s lowering the oil price to regain market share is trying to take advantage of the market turmoil and put pressure on the US producers. Most producers break even on the average estimated to be somewhere around $60.00 a barrel. Today, while different basins have different break evens, the reality is that we’re already seeing signs that we could see some cutbacks in cap ex. Is OPEC going to try to steal that market share. Stay tuned.
The American Petroleum Institute’s oil inventory data from yesterday would typically provide some support. The API reported a reduction in crude oil inventories by 1.057 million barrels from the previous week. Cushing, OK inventories increased by 636,000 barrels, gasoline inventories rose by 207,000 barrels, but distillate inventories experienced a notable decline of 1.844 million barrels. This decrease is attributed to the cold winter and the chilly start to spring, which forced refiners to continue producing distillate to replenish supplies.
Natural gas prices declined partly due to increasing competition with coal. Fox News reported that President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday to boost coal production amid rising electricity demand. In the United States coal remains the third most used energy source, following natural gas and nuclear power.
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Crude Oil Faces Downward Pressure Despite Oversold Conditions
By: Bruce Powers | April 8, 2025
• A 48-month low and technical symmetry suggests crude oil may be near at least a short-term bottom, though continued weakness remains possible without a confirmed bullish reversal.
Crude oil triggered a continuation of its bearish correction on Tuesday, falling to a new 48-month low of $58.06, at the time of this writing. Trading continues near the lows of the day and will likely end in a bearish position, near the lows of the day. The high for the day was $61.88. Notice that crude is now testing support around the lower line of a declining trend channel.
That line is the 50% extension of the original channel bordered by blue trendlines. It may represent support but is too early to say. Furthermore, there are similarities between the current full decline from the January high at $80.76, and previous larger downswings when measured on a percentage basis.
Measured Moves Matched
As shown on the chart, there have been two previous large downswings since the 2023 peak of $95.50. The first (A) found a bottom after a 29% price correction and the second ended after a 25.3% decline. As of this week’s low, the current bearish correction has crude oil down by 28%. Once there is symmetry between the swings, there is a chance for signs of support and the completion of the correction. It is another piece of technical evidence identifying a potential short-term low in crude oil.
Reaching Oversold Conditions
The relative strength index (RSI) has fallen to oversold levels and the test of support near the lower end of the trend channel is also a sign that the price of crude may be oversold. Nonetheless, selling pressure remains as the closing price today will be a new low for the bearish correction.
Upside Potential?
I decisive advance above Tuesday’s high of $61.88 would be needed for signs of strength that may continue. Once the lower blue channel line is exceeded to the upside the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $63.57 becomes a target. Also, Monday’s high at $64.05 is close by. If strength can be maintained above that level, the next higher target zone is around previous price support and the 50% retracement level at $65.41 to $65.27, respectively.
Since that price zone may have greater significance given the previous long-term support level (now resistance), it looks like there is a good chance it is reached if there is a bullish reversal before new lows. Then, after the 50% level, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $67.37 and the 20-Day MA, now at $67.69, become the next upside target.
Bearish Continuation would Target $57.21
On the downside, the next lower price zone identified for potential support is from $57.21 to $56.37. Crude is well on its way to reaching the price zone and therefore it may do so, and it may be soon.
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Natural Gas Extends Losses Below Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | April 8, 2025
• Natural gas broke trend support, reinforcing a bearish continuation pattern that now targets deeper support levels as momentum remains bearish near session lows.
A bearish continuation in natural gas was triggered on Tuesday as it fell to a new corrective low $3.46, and below an uptrend line, with conviction. Trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and natural gas looks set to end the day in a similar position. A continuation of the bearish correction looks likely given today’s decline and the recent drop below the 50-Day MA and prior interim swing lows around $3.73 (B).
May be Heading To 200-Day Moving Average
The next lower target is the 78.6% retracement at $3.40. However, there is a better-defined potential support zone from $3.08 to $2.98, consisting of the initial 100% target for a falling ABCD pattern and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the upswing beginning in August 2024. Also, within that price zone is the next lower trend indicator, the 200-Day MA, now at $3.04, and a prior swing high and symmetrical triangle breakout level of $3.02.
Monthly Bearish Signal
The monthly chart (not shown) is supportive of further downside as a one-month bearish reversal triggered this month. Support from March is at $3.16 and there could be some signs of support around the price level. Moreover, another bearish monthly signal would be generated on a drop below March. A bearish monthly signal especially increases the chance that the lower potential support level noted above may be reached before the current bearish correction is complete.
Bearish Correction Could Fall Farther Than Expected
If natural gas ends up falling below $2.98 and staying below it, sellers may remain in charge down to the $2.77 price zone or lower. That is the 127.2% extended target for the falling ABCD pattern. A daily close below $2.98 would signal a bearish reversal of the advance that began from the August 2024 interim swing low.
The late-January higher swing low at $2.99 is part of the price structure of that trend therefore a drop below that price level would violate the integrity of the uptrend. Additionally, there appears to be potential support around a long-term uptrend line (purple) originating from the April 2024 swing low. It identifies the next lower trend support area below the 200-Day MA. In general, once one trendline is broken, the next lower line becomes a potential target.
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Direct Talks. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 8, 2025
Calmness and reality are returning to the market as traders recognize that President Donald Trump’s trade war may lead to peace and prosperity. Many countries are eager to make deals with the United States, acknowledging their dependence on its economy. Additionally, there is historic movement between the United States and Iran, as President Trump has encouraged direct talks regarding a final nuclear settlement.
Trump’s actions have made it clear to Iran that their support of terror will not be tolerated. President Trump secured direct talks with Iran, a first since the Iranian revolution. Reports that the direct talks between the US and Iran should reduce the risk premium in oil was propped up by chatter that the US and Israel was on the verge of attacking Iran.
Energy groups want the Trump Administration to buy oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated plans to proceed. The urgency is due to oil prices approaching break-even for many shale producers, causing concern over reduced CapEx for US producers.
Trade war reports caused high volatility yesterday but now the markets are able to put some of these trade war fears in perspective. Fox News reported that CNBC was forced to issue an on-air correction after it amplified a viral falsehood that President Donald Trump was considering a “pause” on his widespread tariffs.
Reuters reported that Trump said he would impose an additional 50% duty on U.S. imports from China on Wednesday if it did not withdraw the 34% tariffs it had imposed on U.S. products last week. Those Chinese tariffs had come in response to 34% “reciprocal” duties announced by Trump. Beijing responded with defiance. Trump’s threat was a “typical move of unilateralism, protectionism and economic bullying,” Chinese embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu said. “We have stressed more than once that pressuring or threatening China is not a right way to engage with us,” he added. “China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.”
The European Commission, meanwhile, proposed counter-tariffs of 25% on a range of U.S. goods, including soybeans, nuts and sausages, though other potential items like bourbon whiskey were left off the list, according to a document seen by Reuters. Officials said they stood ready to negotiate a “zero for zero” deal with Trump’s administration. “Sooner or later, we will sit at the negotiation table with the U.S. and find a mutually acceptable compromise,” EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said at a news conference.
Many countries are willing to compromise, acknowledging the United States’ low tariffs. However, abuses from other trading partners have led to significant trade deficits in the US. Actions have been taken to address these issues, aiming to eliminate waste and fraud in government spending. The Department of Government Efficiency plays a role in continuing to reduce waste and fraud while improving government operations.
Government efficiency should go beyond addressing waste and fraud. The Department of Government Efficiency, with its smart and tech-savvy personnel, must review all government reporting agencies. Accurate reports from agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Energy Information Administration, and the US Department of Agriculture are crucial for the economy. Providing these agencies with the necessary tools to produce precise data will benefit businesses and the global economy. Additionally, it’s vital to remove political biases from these reports, ensuring they serve their true purpose of providing reliable information.
While the stock market recovers, oil prices are declining. The crack spreads indicate no recession is imminent, supported by the bond yield curve. Don’t be swayed by recession fears; look for opportunities.
We anticipate oil prices will recover slightly, not dramatically. Tonight’s American Petroleum Institute report on oil inventories should show seasonal market strength. Meanwhile, the drop in gasoline prices benefits American consumers, offsetting the seasonal blend spike.
Are You Kidding Me! Today is April 8th, and the morning temperature was 18°. There is a forecast for snow next week. This late cold spell may impact efforts to reach normal levels of natural gas storage. Additionally, more countries are planning to buy natural gas from the United States as a response to President Trump’s trade policies. Taiwan and Japan have both offered to increase their purchases of liquefied natural gas. It is important to monitor the weather conditions.
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Natural Gas Risks Deeper Pullback Toward Key Support Zone
By: Bruce Powers | April 7, 2025
• Natural gas fell below $3.73 and is testing a key uptrend line, with a breakdown potentially targeting strong support between $3.08 and $2.99.
Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Monday as it dropped below a prior interim swing low at $3.73. At the time of this writing, natural gas reached a low of $3.61 for the day and it continues to trade near the lows of the day and may still go lower. However, the day’s low tested potential support around an internal uptrend line. So far it is holding but given the likely weak daily closing price, a breakdown below the line could trigger.
Outlook Weakens Below Trendline
If a breakdown below the trendline triggers and it is sustained, the bearish decline may continue to lower potential support areas. A key potential trend support level is around the 200-Day MA, now at $3.03. It turns out that a prior interim swing high of $3.02 from October previously signaled a bull breakout of a large symmetrical triangle and the continuation of a developing uptrend. It would not be unusual to see another test of support around that initial breakout level, or an attempt.
Return to 200-Day MA Looks Possible
Following a reclaim of the 200-Day MA in September last year there was one initial pullback that successfully tested support around the 200-Day line. That low was followed by a steady rise that eventually reached the current trend high and 2025 high of $4.90. Also, following an initial upside breakout through $3.02, natural gas eventually pulled back and successfully found support around the $3.02 price area at the end of January. Since the 200-Day MA has converged around the $3.02 price level, it may act like a magnet if the trendline is broken.
Support Zone Shows Confluence from $3.08
Furthermore, there is also an initial target for a falling ABCD at $3.08. That target expands the potential support zone from around $3.08 to $2.99. The lower value is the interim swing low from late January. It adds to the potential significance of the support zone since it points to a similar price area.
Since the 50-Day MA was broken to the downside again last Friday, the 200-Day line becomes a potential target. Also, if the trendline also fails as support, the next lower trendline becomes an eventual target. This doesn’t mean that either of the lines will be reached, but it does reflect intensifying selling pressure.
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | April 5, 2025
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of April 1, 2025.
WTI crude oil: Currently net long 190k, up 11.3k.
This was a one-two punch. Thursday, eight OPEC+ producers, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, decided to increase collective crude output by 411,000 barrels per day from next month. This was nearly three times the expected rise of 140,000 b/d. Then, thanks to US tariffs and growing fears of trade wars, there has been a meaningful rise in global growth fears.
West Texas Intermediate crude collapsed 10.6 percent this week to $61.99/barrel, with a crucial breakdown at horizontal support at $65-$66. This support goes back years, with buyers also having shown up there last September.
This week’s action follows three weeks of minor gains, and eight consecutive weekly declines before that. On January 15th, the crude reversed lower after tagging $79.39 intraday.
As things stand, should WTI manage to rally toward $65-$66, this will probably be used as an opportunity to lighten up. Mid- to long-term, there is horizontal support at low-$50s, and then low-$40s.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to March 28th increased 6,000 b/d week-over-week to 13.580 million b/d; output has come under slight pressure since registering a record 13.631 mb/d in the week to December 6. Crude imports rose as well, up 271,000 b/d to 6.5 mb/d. As did stocks of crude and distillates – up 6.2 million barrels and 264,000 barrels respectively to 439.8 million barrels and 114.6 million barrels. Gasoline inventory, however, dropped 1.6 million barrels to 237.6 million barrels. Refinery utilization declined one full percentage point to 86 percent.
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NY Crude Oil Futures (CL) »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | April 5, 2025
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 6199 is immediately trading down about 13% for the year from last year's settlement of 7172. At present, this market has been declining for 3 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 6522 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in April is reflecting that this has been still a bearish reactionary trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made an outside reversal exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 7228 and it has broken last month's low falling to 6045 while it is still trading below last month's low of 6522.
Up to now, we still have only a 2 month reaction decline from the high established during January. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Crude Oil Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2023 moving into 2025. Noticeably, we have elected three Bullish Reversals to date. Currently, the market has dropped back and is trading beneath the previous year's close warning of a potential correction in play. This is especially true since we are facing an outside reversal to the downside by penetrating the previous year's low as well.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6609.
. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7228 to 6045. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of March 31st reaching 7228 failed to exceed the previous high of 7939 made back during the week of January 13th. That rally amounted to only eleven weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 19 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2024. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 7939 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during January. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 8767 back during April 2024. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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2 semanas hace
Natural Gas Bearish Shift Signals Deeper Correction Risk
By: Bruce Powers | April 4, 2025
• With natural gas falling below the 50-Day MA and RSI still bearish, further declines toward the $3.69 support zone appear increasingly likely in coming days.
Natural gas had a bearish change of character on Friday as it fell hard to a six-day low of $3.83. Downward pressure remains, as trading continues near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. The low of the day tested potential support at the 78.6% retracement. That put natural gas back below the 50-Day MA for the first time in five days.
Although this pullback could complete a short-term decline but given the relatively consistent selling throughout Friday’s session, there is a heightened risk of further downside, especially since the weekend is coming next. It is important to note that the trendline on the relative strength index (RSI) remains unbroken, indicating sustained downward pressure on prices.
Sellers in Control
A weak closing price today, near the lows of the day’s trading range, would keep natural gas in a position to easily challenge the prior swing low support of $3.73 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3.72. There is also a 161.8% extended target for a small descending ABCD pattern (not shown) that points to $3.69 as a potential pivot area. Together, these targets identify a possible support zone from $3.73 to $3.69. And the is a rising trendline nearby as well.
Heighted Global Volatility
Given the heightened volatility in the global markets due to an escalating trade war, more significant potential swings in the price of natural gas need to be considered. There is a large rising parallel trend channel that is outlined in purple on the chart. That is a long-term pattern and therefore it can have a dominating impact on shorter patterns. A similar situation may be unfolding in silver relative to its rising channels. Of course, there is always a chance for a breakout through either the top or bottom line of the channel. But if that does not happen and a reversal is indicated instead, there is always the chance that the other side of the channel will eventually be reached.
Trend Channels Point the Way
Natural gas triggered a failed bullish breakout of the large channel on March 10. The subsequent high of the trend at $4.90 was quickly followed by the current bearish correction. Around that top was the top of a second and shorter trend channel starting from an August 2024 interim swing low. The lower end of the shorter channel is the next lower trendline. A break below that line opens the possibility of natural gas eventually testing the long-term lower trend channel line (purple). Whether it reaches there or not it indicates selling pressure on a daily close below the next trendline.
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Whip Inflation Now and Again! The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 4, 2025
Stay Calm and enjoy the price break. Inflation has been a major issue for Americans. President Trump’s trade policies contributed to reducing inflation, which has been challenging for the Federal Reserve and the administration under Biden. Today’s stock market sell-off is taking money out of the market but resulting in lower prices for Main Street. President Trump worked with OPEC to quickly reduce oil production costs by implementing planned cuts within one month instead of three.
This action aligns with the tariff changes, leading to an increased supply of oil in the country, contributing to disinflation. While the stock market adjusts to these changes, it could positively impact stocks overall. There will be winners and losers, but these developments may ultimately prove beneficial.
Global markets are experiencing concern following China’s retaliation against the United States with new sanctions and a 34% tariff on American imports. This has sparked fears of a global trade war. Despite these concerns, President Trump’s tariffs may have addressed inflation by reducing oil prices to multi-year lows and lowering the cost of lumber and building materials.
While some fear an impending recession, market fundamentals suggest otherwise. The tariffs could enable the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, increasing consumer spending power and making housing more affordable. The decrease in commodity prices could assist young people in achieving financial stability by alleviating previous inflation, ineffective trade policies, and challenges related to immigration.
Although the market is reacting negatively, the adjustment in global asset prices may benefit economic recovery. Concerns about rising gasoline prices are prevalent, particularly during periods of economic stagnation.
Globally, the wealth disparity caused by rampant inflation has significantly impacted the poor and middle class. Although there may be short-term pain and stock market volatility, it is anticipated that the tariffs will not dramatically affect the jobs market. On the contrary, they may present more opportunities, especially for Americans. Post-adjustment, this period may lead to one of the most vibrant economies seen in years.
In the past four years, consumers have faced reduced purchasing power and real wages, leading to higher living costs and difficulties in saving and investing. Despite these challenges, the stock market sell-off presents opportunities. Certain stocks might be undervalued because the market has not yet acknowledged their potential advantages from decreasing commodity prices. While a trade war could increase car and food costs, reduced commodity and oil prices might mitigate its impact on most Americans. Stay strong, seek opportunities, and avoid panic.
Oil prices may get a boost from the charged report and it’s going to be very interesting when Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaks today at 10:25a. It’s very possible that Jerome Powell may signal additional rate cuts, or it leaves that possibility and if Mr. Powell does talk about cutting rates that could put a bottom in all the markets.
Natural gas is still getting a boost due to cold weather and seems immune to all of the outside market data. The critical thing is for natural gas to keep an eye on the weather.
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3 semanas hace
Crude Oil Plunges to 17-Day Low
By: Bruce Powers | April 3, 2025
• Oil’s sharp decline triggered a bearish weekly signal, with sellers in control. Fibonacci support at $66.20 may indicate a short-term floor before further moves.
Crude oil fell sharply on Thursday to reach a pullback low of $66.17, before signs of support were seen. That low was a 17-day low, meaning that the decline took out the lows of the prior 16 days with little hesitation. Crude oil fell for most of Thursday’s session until a minor bounce started heading towards the close for the day.
Nonetheless, at the time of this writing, sellers remain in control with crude oil continuing to trade in the lower third of the day’s price range. This is very bearish behavior that triggered a bearish reversal on the weekly chart and established a bearish outside week. A weekly close tomorrow, below last week’s low of $68.25, would confirm the bearish weekly signal.
Volatility Likely Within One-Week Range
Nonetheless, given the wide trading range for this week, crude oil could trade within the range for some time. The high-to-low price range for the week is $66.17 to $72.49 currently, which reflects a decline of $6.32 or 9.6%. Of course, there is also a chance that crude oil could drop below today’s low and head towards long-term support around $65.40. That was a 22-month low for crude oil. Given the strong bearish weekly reversal signal today, it is looking more likely that the price of crude oil eventually resolves to the downside. It has been largely consolidating for almost two years.
Possible Resistance Levels
Price levels to watch during a bounce for potential resistance start with a $68.37 to $68.53 price range, consisting of previous resistance and the 20-Day MA, respectively. That price range is followed by a range from $68.82 to $69.07. The price range starts with an interim swing low and ends with a minor swing low at $69.07 from Monday.
Support Found at 88.6% Retracement
Despite a very sharp decline today, crude oil respected the deep 88.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $66.20 as the low for the day was $66.17. That ratio is the square root of 78.6%, another important ratio, which is the square root of the golden ratio, 61.8%. This could mean that a temporary floor for the price of crude oil may have been established. It also further validates the usefulness of Fibonacci and harmonic ratios regarding price patterns in crude oil.
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Natural Gas Bullish Reversal Signals Further Upside Potential
By: Bruce Powers | April 3, 2025
• Natural gas confirmed a bullish reversal after reclaiming key levels. A breakout above $4.26 would strengthen momentum, with an initial upside target near $4.56.
Natural gas held up well on Thursday given global market turmoil following a new announcement on tariffs from the U.S. It looks like a bearish pullback low was established at $3.93 this week, as a bullish reversal of an inside day triggered on Thursday. Subsequently, a three-day high of $4.20 was reached before an intraday pullback began.
The bullish one-day reversal also reclaimed the 20-Day MA at $4.07. A daily close above Wednesday’s high of $4.09 will confirm the bullish reversal, and a daily close above the 20-Day line will confirm that breakout. Although weakness followed the daily high, natural gas continues to trade in the top half of the day’s trading range defined by the $4.09 midpoint.
Bullish Price Action
Today’s price movement indicates a possible continuation of the upward trend that originated from the March 27 swing low of $3.73. Since a lower swing high was established at $4.26 in March, that is the next price target for natural gas. However, a bull breakout above that swing high will trigger a continuation of a bull trend and a bullish reversal of the recent declining price correction. Each signal would provide another piece of technical evidence showing Improving demand for natural gas.
Confluence Target at $4.56
If bullish momentum can now be sustained, there is an initial upside target for natural gas around $4.56. That price level is identified by two methods. It is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and it marks the initial target for a rising ABCD pattern. When two or more indicators point to a similar price level, that price area can sometimes act like a magnet, pulling price towards it. Whether that happens with natural gas or not remains to be seen. But it certainly could happen.
On Track for Bullish Weekly Candle Pattern
Since there is only one more trading day left to the week, natural gas looks likely to end the week confirming a one-week bullish reversal that triggered this week on the weekly chart. A weekly close above last week’s high of $4.10 would confirm the breakout on the larger time frame. Also, there is a possibility that the one-week pattern this week will be a hammer candlestick pattern. However, in its current pattern position, it would represent upward momentum rather than the potential for a bullish reversal, as a bullish reversal already triggered.
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EIA Natural Gas Storage Build Of +29 Bcf Exceeds Estimates
By: Vladimir Zernov | April 3, 2025
Key Points:
• Working gas in storage increased by +29 Bcf from the previous week.
• At current levels, stocks are -80 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year.
• Bullish changes in weather forecasts may provide support to the market.
On April 3, 2025, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage increased by +29 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst forecast of +27 Bcf. In the previous week, working gas in storage increased by +37 Bcf.
More information in our economic calendar
At current levels, stocks are -491 Bcf less than last year and -80 Bcf below the five-year average for this time of the year. Low storage levels serve as a bullish catalyst for natural gas markets, although traders have mostly focused on fluctuations of weather forecasts in recent weeks.
Natural gas prices moved away from session highs as traders reacted to the report. The natural gas storage build exceeded analyst expectations, which may put some pressure on the market.
Meanwhile, weather forecasts predict colder weather starting from April 7, which may boost heating demand and provide support to natural gas prices.
From the technical point of view, natural gas is trying to get to the test of the resistance level at $4.25 – $4.30. A move above the $4.30 level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at $4.55 – $4.60. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
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Crude Gets Crushed After Tariffs
By: Christopher Lewis | April 3, 2025
• The crude oil markets got crushed after the tariff announcements in the US. The world looks as if it might be heading into a tariff war, and this will drive down demand for oil.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
At this point, it looks very much like a market that is going to continue to at least stay within the range that it had been in previously, but it’s worth noting that this is a horrific candlestick. A tariff war will certainly have a major influence on how the oil market behaves because quite frankly, the oil market is all about the economic engine of global trade, whether or not it is a thing. So, it’s not a huge surprise to see the reaction that we have had.
That being said, we are getting close to an area that has been well supported for some time. So, I think you have to keep that in mind. The market will continue to look at the $65 level here in the light sweet crude oil market as an area that might be important. With that being said, I like the idea of looking for a bounce, but I don’t want to be the first one to press the button to buy crude oil.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Brent looks very much the same as it is down near the $70 level testing major support. So, I’ll have to wait and see if that holds. So far it has actually bounced just a bit, although we’re still down over 6 % as I record this video, which is a horrific number, to say the least, but Brent has held this line for something like three years. So, my suspicion is as soon as you hear anything remotely conciliatory between world leaders, oil markets will probably react in a very positive light. Until then though, we have to be somewhat cautious. Your position size will be crucial.
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The Topic Was Inflation I Believe. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 3, 2025
For those that told you that tariffs would add to inflation, they are finding out the reality may be exactly the opposite. Somehow the market was surprised that President Trump would have the courage to follow through with what he said he would do when it came to tariffs but once again, they underestimated the President and his resolve. And despite predictions that gas and oil prices would rise, we are instead seeing a big drop after a quick drop giving main street a price break just ahead of the summer driving season. While Wall Street frets and some worry about their 401-k, consumers will get the first positive impact from tariffs from cheaper prices at the gas pump.
President Trump imposed tariffs on various countries but exempted oil, gas, and refined product imports. This exemption reflects his commitment to keep energy prices low for Americans. By lifting domestic production restrictions and streamlining regulations, he aims to attract manufacturing companies to build or expand factories in the U.S., thereby creating higher-paying jobs for Americans.
Refiners got a gift from Canada as they rushed barrels to the US ahead of tariffs last week. That added to a whopping crude oil build that the market tried to dismiss until the tariff hammer fell. The EIA reported that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels from the previous week putting total supply at 439.8 million barrels and are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The EIA said that motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.6 million barrels from last week and are 2% above the five-year average for this time of year. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Total product demand over the past four weeks averaged 20.1 million barrels per day, reflecting a 1.2% decrease compared to the same period last year. Motor gasoline supply averaged 8.8 million barrels per day over the past four weeks, a decrease of 1.9% from last year. Distillate fuel supply averaged 3.8 million barrels per day, an increase of 3.7%. Jet fuel supply was up 4.2% compared to the same period last year.
The band was weaker than it was a year ago has to be brought into questions because the Department of Energy had to upwardly revise their weekly demand numbers dramatically from the month before so we really believe that the demand numbers are better than what they showed in this week’s report we do think that some of the numbers were impacted by weather but we also need to get better data in the coming weeks we expect to see demand upwardly revised.
Although people are concerned about tariffs raising the cost of Chinese goods, lower prices at the pump will benefit consumers immediately. Wall Street may need to adjust to this new tariff environment, which could cause volatility for a while. However, this situation is likely to be beneficial for many companies and the US overall. We can expect a rebound in manufacturing jobs and more investment in the US in the coming months. President Trump’s actions regarding tariffs make sense when considering the tariffs other countries impose on the US.
President Trump displayed a chart comparing tariffs, showing that his tariffs were lower than those imposed by other countries on the US. By putting the facts in front of the American people and the world about how unfairly other countries have treated us made it much more difficult for the world to be outraged for Trump doing to them what they have been doing to us for decades.
President Trump has imposed a 10% tariff on all US imports, effective April 5. Importing companies will pay this tax. Some countries, including the United Kingdom, Singapore, Brazil, Australia, New Zealand, Turkey, Colombia, Argentina, El Salvador, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, will only face the base rate.
The White House will impose reciprocal tariffs on around 60 countries that it believes undermine American economic goals. These countries charge higher tariffs on US goods, use non-tariff barriers, or act against US trade interests. The tariffs take effect on April 9th. The countries that made the Tariff List of Shame include key trading partners subject to these like the European Union: 20%; China: 54% (which includes earlier tariffs)Vietnam: 46% Thailand: 36% Japan: 24% Cambodia: 49% South Africa: 30% Taiwan: 32%.
Despite the US stock market being affected, foreign markets may suffer more, giving the US an advantage. This should prevent the US market from declining too much. Oil prices are likely to find support as demand increases due to lower prices. The Green New Deal scam is still sinking the prospects for Europe’s economy. Bloomberg reports that, “The development of new oil and natural gas resources in the UK isn’t viable due to high taxes, according to Ineos Group. “Tax rates are so punitive that the UK is uninvestible,” Brian Gilvary, chairman of the Ineos Energy unit, said by phone on Wednesday following the company’s acquisition of production assets in the US. The UK introduced what’s known as the Energy Profits Levy in 2022, and the tax increased to 38% last year. Ineos, which has production in the UK, is paying a total tax rate of 78% on its output, according to Gilvary.” Now tack on Trumps Tariff. Zero Hedge reported that Thailand will negotiate with the US on 36% tariffs.
Natural gas came back above $400 as winter wants to stay around. Fox Weather reported that, “A deadly tornado outbreak spawned more than 20 reports of twisters across the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley on Wednesday and Wednesday night. At least two people have died in Tennessee due to the severe weather, the state’s Department of Health confirmed early Thursday. The storms also injured multiple others and destroyed several homes from Arkansas, Missouri and Tennessee through Kentucky, Illinois and Indiana. A massive tornado was spotted by FOX Weather Storm Tracker Brandon Copic as it roared near Lake City, Arkansas. Authorities issued a Tornado Emergency – the most dire of tornado alerts – for towns in the path of the storm, such as Leachville and Monette.
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Natural Gas Consolidates Below 20-Day Moving Average
By: Bruce Powers | April 2, 2025
• Natural gas remains under pressure below the 20-Day MA, with key support at $3.93 and $3.88. A breakout above $4.09 could shift the trend bullish.
Natural gas consolidated just below the 20-Day MA on Wednesday, and it is on course to end the trading session as an inside day. Although the day was up from Tuesday’s closing price, the high of the day at $4.09 found resistance at the 20-Day MA, now at $4.08. That high established a lower daily high, reflecting downward pressure. It has short-term bearish implications that may be amplified by the fact that the 20-Day MA was also near.
Support at Risk
Support for the past two days at $3.93 is near the prior interim swing low from mid-March. Moreover, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement also was completed. However, given today’s lower daily high and the fact that the 20-Day MA has turned down, the next lower potential support level around the 50-Day MA, looks likely to be tested. It is now at $3.88. The 50-Day line is joined by the 78.6% retracement level at $3.84. That price level has added significance as it is this week’s low so far. It begins a pattern of higher weekly lows following the bullish reversal that triggered earlier this week on the weekly chart (not shown).
Weekly Bullish Pattern Retained
This means that the weekly chart just began a new potential upswing this week. Therefore, the bias should be towards the upside. However, that doesn’t mean that the current pullback can’t go lower first. But as long as natural gas remains above this week’s low, it retains the weekly bull trend price structure. If there is a sustained reclaim of the 20-Day MA and today’s high prior to a deeper decline, then the near-term outlook would switch to bullish.
Upside Targets
The first advance off the recent higher swing low of $3.73 retraced a little less than 50% of the recent downswing. Therefore, the 50% retracement at $4.32 would mark an upside target, along with the interim swing high at $4.37. Further up is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $4.45. A daily close above today’s high and the 20-Day MA would indicate strength that could then lead to a bullish breakout above the recent swing high at $4.25. It is also possible that natural gas consolidates for a little while and takes a rest by moving relatively sideways.
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The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 2, 2025
Today Is Liberation Day! I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding generations, as the great anniversary festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the day of deliverance by solemn acts of devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with pomp and parade, with shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more.
You will think me transported with Enthusiasm, but I am not. — I am well aware of the Toil and Blood and Treasure, that it will cost us to maintain this declaration, and support and defend these States. — Yet through all the Gloom I can see the Rays of ravishing Light and Glory. I can see that the End is more than worth all the Means. And that Posterity will triumph in that Days Transaction, even although We should rue it, which I trust in God We shall not.
The war for real free trade has begun and as our second President and Founding Father John Adams reminds us of that Freedom and Free trade must be won at some cost. President Adams made those comments when our freedom was far from assured and it should also be put in perspective that the fears of a trade war having devastating impact on stocks and inflation are generally hyped and misguided,
America has faced tougher challenges and prevailed. The United States will win this trade war, and President Trump’s plan to remove unfair trade restrictions, protect intellectual property rights, eliminate waste and fraud, reduce the deficit, and cut unnecessary regulation costs will strengthen the economy and put us in better position to compete in the new artificial intelligence.
Economists can debate the benefits and the pitfalls of tariffs and trade wars; however, historically, tariffs have not resulted in inflation.
Free trade has enabled consumers to benefit from lower-priced goods from other countries. However, unfair practices such as intellectual property theft and dumping commodities backed by exploited labor have distorted the market and harmed businesses that cannot compete against these practices. President Trump aims to level the playing field for fair competition among all parties rather than implementing protectionism.
Should we stand idly by as we see that Ross Perot was right when he said, “We have got to stop sending jobs overseas. It’s pretty simple: If you’re paying $12, $13, $14 an hour for factory workers and you can move your factory South of the border, pay a dollar an hour for labor, … have no health care—that’s the most expensive single element in making a car— have no environmental controls, no pollution controls and no retirement, and you don’t care about anything but making money, there will be a giant sucking sound going south. … when [Mexico’s] jobs come up from a dollar an hour to six dollars an hour, and ours go down to six dollars an hour, and then it’s leveled again. But in the meantime, you’ve wrecked the country with these kinds of deals.”
Should we stand by as global elitist look to the US to piggy bank their agenda, with tariffs taxes and the green deal scam cash. Is that not taxation without representation. While I’d prefer a world with free trade we can’t always just pretend that we have it when we don’t.
China has announced that they will restrict companies from investing in the US, which likely means stopping the purchase of farmland. This may lead to TikTok being sold, and there could be changes regarding technology acquisitions from companies like NVIDIA. Other countries might also announce retaliatory tariffs, like those implemented by President Trump initially. If other countries wish to end the trade war, Israel could potentially remove all trade tariffs on US goods.
Barrons reports that “In a worst-case scenario, there could be a 20% across-the-board increase to tariffs on U.S. imports. The resulting price rises would cost the average household the equivalent of between $3,400 and $4,200, depending on the level of retaliation by other countries, according to the Budget Lab at Yale. More moderate options would include a 10% universal tariff, or a sliding scale of reciprocal levies on a limited number of trading partners, with exemptions in some industries.
Oil prices have been rising due to supply and demand, not concerns about tariffs or trade wars. Yesterday, oil prices faced difficulty after the American Petroleum Institute reported an astonishingly significant 6,0376 million barrels increase in weekly crude supplies. Despite skepticism about these numbers, it has slowed the market’s level. The monthly EIA report indicated a supply deficit as January’s demand hit record highs and supplies fell short of expectations. API reported that Cushing, OK was also up by 2.244 million barrels, Gasoline down 1.628 million barrels and distillates down -0.011 million barrels.
Prices also have been relatively subdued even with heightened geopolitical risks. President Trump has been hammering the Houthi rebels reducing their ability to continue with their pirate and terror attacks, and even though there’s a lot of rumors that the US and Israel will attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, overnight comes news that President Trump is seriously considering Iran’s offer of indirect nuclear talks. My assumption that talks are not going to be like when the Biden administration had nuclear talks and basically gave away the store. President Trump is going to negotiate from a position of strength and make it very clear that Iran’s support of terror groups like the rebels and Hamas must stop.
Today we got the Energy Information Administration report and we’ll see if it confirms the big crude build that we saw from the API. We’re keeping an eye on the big picture. While the tariff announcements may shake up oil and gasoline prices for a little while, the bottom line is is that any increase in prices that we see from the tariff and the retaliation from Canada will be modest. Canada may raise the price of their oil to the United states while other countries may sell it to us at a discount. Not that there won’t be some issues with paying more money for Canadian crude, the impact on overall inflation will be minimal and because oil is a global market and basically undersupplied, we think that we’ll get back to supply and demand fundamentals fairly quickly. In fact if tariffs do raise the cost of oil and gasoline it would be offset by weakening demand. High prices cure high prices and it could impact the demand side thereby putting downward pressure on prices. At the end of the day though the big picture is the fundamentals are still solid for oil and there’s still upside risks in the market.
Natural gas continues to be pushed to and from based mainly on conflicting weather reports and maintenance for some pipelines and LNG export terminals. Natural gas has a love hate relationship with the four dollar level if we close above 4 it will look bullish. If we close below 4 be careful for a further correction.
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Crude Oil Hits $72.32, Signals Potential Pullback Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | April 1, 2025
• Crude oil hit $72.32 but faced resistance, forming a bearish reversal pattern. A pullback is likely if prices drop below $71.34, with support at $70.64.
Crude oil rallied and overshot Monday’s high of $72.07 briefly on Tuesday to reach a new high of $72.32. Resistance was subsequently seen the crude oil began to weaken intraday. It continues to trade near the lows of the day, currently $71.34, at the time of this writing, and it is on track to close in the lower third of the day’s trading range. If it does so, a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern will be established.
Resistance Seen After Targets Hit
During Monday’s advance to a high of $72.07, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of an interim downswing, was completed at $71.84, and the 161.8% extended target for a rising ABCD pattern was reached at $71.01. Signs of strength were shown with a reclaim of the 50-Day MA and a breakout above the 31.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $71.26. The ABCD pattern target is 161.8% of the price appreciation seen in the first leg up of the pattern, labeled AB. It reflects a harmonic relationship between the two swings based on price. Once that occurs there is a greater potential for resistance to be seen.
New Trend High Fails
Notice that the ABCD pattern target was almost an exact match with Monday’s high. Moreover, observe that Monday’s strong 3.37% advance was preceded by an undercut of the prior day’s low and a successful test of support at a lower trendline. That is when buyers took back control and drove the price above the highs of the previous three days.
The line represented resistance previously as shown by an interim swing high (B). This type of behavior before a strong move is not unusual. Therefore, it is a pattern of behavior that will likely be seen again either in crude oil or other financial assets.
50-Day MA Support is Key
Although it looks like crude oil could keep climbing to the next higher price target, the fact that two targets mark a resistance zone and there is a bearish daily pattern, suggests a pullback first. A breakdown below today’s low of $71.34 will trigger the bearish shooting star pattern. The 50-Day MA is currently at $70.64 and it now represents a key potential short-term support area. Higher targets for crude oil include the confluence of the 200-Day MA, now at $73.13, and the 50% retracement at $73.08.
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Natural Gas Declines Toward Key Support at 50-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | April 1, 2025
• Natural gas dropped below key levels, approaching support at $3.88. A bullish reversal remains possible, but a breakdown below the 50-Day MA could trigger further downside.
It looks like a test of support around the 50-Day MA may be in the plans for natural gas. On Tuesday, natural gas dropped below Monday’s low of $4.25 and back below the 20-Day MA. Sellers remain in charge at the time of this writing, as trading continues near the lows of the day, now at $3.93. Potential short-term support at the prior interim swing low of $4.26 seems to be holding so far, but solid selling seems destined to lead to a test of the support near a bull wedge breakout level and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.88.
Normal Pullback Expected
A bull breakout of a descending wedge trend continuation pattern triggered last Thursday and led to a rally into resistance at Monday’s high of $4.25. The current pullback is typical following a breakout as prior resistance areas are tested as support. Once support is found there is the potential for another advance. The weekly chart is also supportive of such a scenario.
On Monday a bullish weekly reversal triggered above last week’s high of $4.10, following a two-week pullback. Although it quickly failed there is the potential for this week to end with a higher weekly high and higher weekly low. Therefore, traders and investors will likely be watching the current bearish pullback for signs of support that may lead to a bullish reversal.
50-Day Moving Average Support
Notice that the 50-Day MA was clearly a support area during the early-March swing low. During the recent correction it was undercut for a couple days and then reclaimed relatively quickly. Therefore, during this decline natural gas could dip below the 50-Day line briefly but should recover quickly. If it does not and there is a daily close below the moving average, then the risk of further downside increases.
Trendline Support Dynamics
Since the higher trendline support was broken mid-March, there is the possibility of eventually testing the next lower trendline before a bearish correction is complete. Since the line is rising it will represent a price above the recent corrective low of $3.73 around April 14 (vertical). Given the overall pattern and potential support around the 50-Day line, there is the possibility of seeing consolidation until then between the recent low and this week’s high.
The next lower trendline has three points thereby marking it as a solid line. Therefore, it should act as support the first time it is approached, or a break below could lead to a sharp drop given the potential significance of the trendline.
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No Fooling! The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | April 1, 2025
Oil prices settled at a 5-week breaker. No, it’s not an April fool’s joke! I am not kidding! Oil got hit with a reality check and while President Trump talks of secondary tariffs on Russia and his threat to bomb Iran, the reality was a report about supply and demand and that really mattered.
The market made its move after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US oil demand was much stronger than they previously reported, and U.S. oil production was much lower than they previously reported. In other words, the EIA had to get in line with what we have been seeing all along. Was the EIA playing a joke on us when they underreported demand and overestimated supply? Well, I’ll pick up my guitar and play, just like yesterday, then I’ll get on my knees and pray, We don’t get fooled again.
U.S. oil demand is surging, hitting 20.736 million barrels a day which is up a whopping 5.9% a year ago while U.S. oil production is faltering as crude oil production from Texas hit the lowest level since 2024. U.S. crude oil production fell by 305,000 barrels per day to 13.15 million bpd in January, the lowest level since February 2024.
And if you’re wondering why drill baby drill is working it’s because the prices of oil have been too low due to government manipulation with releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve that distorted the market and kept prices artificially low thereby reducing the incentive for producers to make investments to keep the oil supplies flowing. The distortion in the market has made oil producers reticent to increase production even as U.S. oil inventories are tight and it’s very clear right now that we’re heading into a supply deficit. The EIA showed that US petroleum inventories (crude, SPR, refined products) fell by a massive 25.058 million barrels last month 1,605.857mb.
The increase in oil and product prices is due to supply and demand factors. Historically, prices were undervalued, possibly by around $10 for crude oil. Considering the geopolitical risks and strong market results, we may have significant potential despite facing resistance near current highs.
According to the Moore Research we’re right in the sweet spot for rallies for this market from a seasonal viewpoint. Analysis of historical data reveals that August crude futures have experienced an average increase of over $3 per barrel during the period from March 29th to April 14th in 14 out of the last 15 years. Similarly, for August heating oil, prices have risen 13 out of the past 15 years during the same period, resulting in an average profit of $3093. Furthermore, RBOB prices have increased in 14 out of the last 15 years between March 30th and April 15th. This indicates that the market often begins to move in a seasonal direction almost predictably. Research by Moore indicates that natural gas futures have increased between March 30th and May 20th in 13 out of the past 15 years.
John Kemp Energy reported that, “U.S. gasoline demand increased to 8.5 million barrels per day in January, up from 8.2 million b/d in the same month a year earlier, when it was depressed by Winter Storm Heather.
The EIA also reported that U.S. natural gas consumption set new winter and summer monthly records in 2024.
EIA said gas consumption averaged a record 90.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) U.S. consumption last year increased 1% (0.9 Bcf/d) from 2023. In January, natural gas consumption was up 12% (12.5 Bcf/d) compared with January 2023 consumption, and in July, consumption increased by 3% (2.5 Bcf/d) compared with July 2023. This is why we need to hedged for upside risk.
The EIA said that, “Weather has a significant effect on natural gas consumption patterns. Natural gas consumption peaks in the United States in both the winter and summer. In winter, the most natural gas is consumed in January or February, when demand for space heating in the residential and commercial sectors peaks. In the summer, electricity generation increases in July and August to meet air-conditioning demand, driving more natural gas consumption.
Secretary Chris Wright on X said that that the volume of natural gas in its liquid state is about 600 times smaller than its volume in its gaseous state, making it possible to transport natural gas to places pipelines do not reach. That is why our work on LNG is so crucial! We throw around ‘LNG’ a lot over here @Energy, but what is LNG? Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is natural gas that has been cooled to a liquid state, at about -260° Fahrenheit, for shipping and storage. This gas is then exported to our allies around the world, bolstering America’s Energy Dominance.”
With colder temperatures, natural gas prices have risen above $4.00, creating a supply squeeze not seen in some time. Despite concerns about higher prices due to US LNG exports, we will still have some of the lowest natural gas prices globally, giving us a competitive edge in manufacturing. Therefore, it is crucial for the Trump Administration to continue efforts to revive US manufacturing. It’s going to be good for the globe because of the United States historically low energy prices compared to other countries. Natural gas prices still will be driven by the weather so make sure you keep an eye on that as well. So Don’t Get Fooled again!
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Natural Gas Faces Resistance at $4.25 After Short-term Rally
By: Bruce Powers | March 31, 2025
• Natural gas hit resistance at $4.25, pulling back intraday. A potential $4.40 target remains, but further weakness could lead to a test of lower support levels.
Natural gas continued its advance on Monday to a high of $4.25 before encountering resistance and pulling back intraday. Given the subsequent bearish response, that high was a successful test of resistance at the recent lower swing high of $4.26. Earlier in the trading session the 20-Day MA, now at $4.12, was reclaimed and a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement was completed at $4.18. Although a rise above those two price levels is a sign of strength, the subsequent decline from the day’s high is a sign of weakening bullish momentum.
Moreover, at the time of this writing natural gas continues to trade in the lower half of the day’s trading range. An additional sign of weakness will occur if Monday ends in the lower half of the range, which would be below $4.15. Also, the day’s closing price, relative to the 20-Day MA, may provide a clue as to whether a reclaim of the 20-Day line is confirmed.
Potential Higher Target
An initial target from the bull wedge is the beginning of the wedge at $4.26. That target was essentially satisfied today. Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean the advance is over, but maybe natural gas takes a rest first via a pullback or consolidation before attempting higher prices. Also, when adding the height in price to the breakout level, an alternative potential target of $4.40 is established. As with all targets they are estimates that may or may not be reached.
Drop Below $4.06 Points to a Likely Pullback
A decline below Monday’s low of $4.055 is a sign of further short-term weakening that could lead to a move lower to test prior resistance areas as support. Two initial price areas to watch for signs of support include prior support from the mid-March interim swing low at $3.96, and the 50-Day MA, now at $3.87. It is interesting to note that the breakout of the top line of the wedge occurred at a similar price area.
Following the reclaim of the 50-Day MA on February 13, the 50-Day line successfully tested as support in early-March and a higher swing low was established. Although the recent decline failed to find support at the 50-Day MA, the subsequent quick bullish recovery can be viewed as a successful test of support at the 50-Day line.
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3 semanas hace
On Secondary Thought. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | March 31, 2025
President Trump threatened to put secondary sanctions on Russian oil for anybody who buys Russian oil. President Donald Trump said he was “very angry” and “pissed off” at Vladimir Putin and threatened Iran that if they did not come to a deal, they would start bombing them. President Trump told NBC News that, “If Russia and I are unable to make a deal on stopping the bloodshed in Ukraine, and if I think it was Russia’s fault — which it might not be — but if I think it was Russia’s fault, I am going to put secondary tariffs on oil, on all oil coming out of Russia. That would be that if you buy oil from Russia, you can’t do business in the United States, There will be a 25% tariff on all oil, a 25- to 50-point tariff on all oil.”
It did not have an enormous impact on futures prices right away but as the market started to contemplate the potential bullishness of this situation, the market started to rally. This comes as India’s oil demand hit a record high as their exports averaged five million barrels a day in March according to Kpler. India relies mightily on Russian oil and will feel the impact if President Trump does decide to put on secondary sanctions on Russia. India crude inventories have dropped below eighty million barrels, marking the lowest recorded level since Kpler began monitoring. The 53% utilization rate reflects aggressive crude drawdowns to sustain high refinery run levels. Kpler expects March refinery to approach 5.58 mbd, the highest seasonal rate registered in 2024, ahead of a scheduled April maintenance at the Jamnagar complex.
And if you look at the market supplies they are not that ample, in fact very tight. If you look at the time spreads on the Brent crude oil and the US crude, the market is a lot tighter than people think. India’s oil demand has reached unprecedented levels, with their significant dependence on Russian oil imports potentially being impacted by prospective sanctions. Market supplies are limited, with Brent and U.S. crude tighter than expected.
After Trump’s comments to NBC over the weekend, Iran’s supreme leader says the IRI doesn’t think they will, but if the US and Israel “engage in mischief” as they are threatening, they will, without a doubt, receive a strong reciprocal blow. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned of a “firm retaliatory strike” if attacked by the US or Israel, following Donald Trump’s threat to bomb Iran unless it renounces nuclear weapons. Still, in the televised remarks on Monday, Khamenei downplayed the likelihood of such an outcome, characterizing it as “highly unlikely.”
Despite up-to-date news, oil prices remain stable. The expectation is that the oil supply will continue unaffected by current threats. However, the market remains uneasy. Given tight margins between supply and demand, any disruption, such as reduced Iranian supply or secondary sanctions on Russian oil, could have significant impacts. Therefore, it is prudent to hedge against the worst-case scenario.
China is blocking the sale of its strategic ports owned by a Hong Kong-based company in the Panama Canal. They argue that the United States cannot be allowed to control it.
Refiners are going to start ramping up this week as we get closer to the summer driving season. Inventories are below normal and we get the Energy Information Administration report today. The monthly numbers could be supportive for prices.
Natural gas is popping once again as winter refuses to end either here in the United states or in Europe. On both sides of the Atlantic, winter winds are blowing and the late test of cold is giving natural gas a big surge this morning.
The FOX Forecast Center continues to track a destructive winter storm that brought crippling ice accretions to communities across the northern U.S. from the Great Lakes region to the interior Northeast and northern New England over the weekend. Fox Weather reported extensive power outages, including in Michigan, where over 100,000 power outages were recorded across the state, as stated by FindEnergy.com. Power outages have also been reported to the west in Wisconsin, as well as in northern New York state and Vermont. The FOX Forecast Center said ice totals so far have exceeded a half inch in communities in Michigan and northern New York.
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