Given the inherent volatility in ethanol, distillers’ grains, non-food grade corn oil, grain and natural gas prices, we cannot predict the likelihood that the spread between ethanol, distillers’ grains, non-food grade corn oil, and grain prices in future periods will be consistent compared to historical periods.
Corn Prices
Corn prices increased significantly in fiscal year 2021, due in part to the improved domestic economy as well as increased demand from China and drought in South America’s corn-growing regions. Average corn prices remained above $5.00 per bushel for the three months ended January 31, 2022.
Because the market price of ethanol is not always directly related to corn, at times ethanol prices may lag price movements in corn prices and corn-ethanol price spread may be tightly compressed or negative. If the corn-ethanol spread is compressed or negative for sustained period, it is possible that our operating margins will decline or become negative and our plants may not generate adequate cash flow for operations. In such cases, we may reduce or cease production at our plants to minimize our variable costs and optimize cash flow.
U.S. Ethanol Supply and Demand
During the three months ended January 31, 2022, domestic ethanol production increased approximately 10% compared to the same three month period a year earlier, with U.S. ethanol plants producing more than 1 million barrels of fuel ethanol per day on average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (“EIA”).
Ethanol production is projected to increase slightly in 2022. The EIA projects fuel ethanol production will average 1.03 million barrels per day in 2022, up from approximately 980,000 barrels per day produced in 2021. Further, EIA projects fuel ethanol production will average 1.02 million barrels per day in 2023. Continued ethanol production capacity increases could also have a negative impact on the market price of ethanol, which could negatively affect our profitability.
Exports of ethanol decreased slightly in our fiscal year 2021, after increasing slightly each of the previous two fiscal years. Export demand for ethanol is less consistent compared to domestic demand which can lead to ethanol price volatility. The decrease in ethanol exports is due to various factors, including a decrease in trading with Brazil, which had been one of the two largest importers of U.S. ethanol, due to the expiration of a Brazilian import quota. The USDA projects that U.S. ethanol exports will increase slightly in 2022 due to both volume and price gains due, in part, to increased renewable fuel blending requirements in the United Kingdom, India, and other nations. Any decrease in U.S. ethanol exports could adversely impact the market price of ethanol unless domestic demand increases or additional foreign markets are developed.
U.S. ethanol exports to China increased during the 2021 fiscal year, following the execution of a “phase one” trade agreement with China. The agreement, signed by former President Donald Trump on January 15, 2020, includes a commitment by China to purchase agricultural products, including ethanol, over the course of two years. There is, however, no guarantee that exports of ethanol to China will continue or increase. Additionally, the imposition of tariffs and duties on ethanol imported from the U.S., as well as increased production of ethanol and similar fuels in other countries, can also negatively impact domestic export demand.
Further, reductions renewable fuel blending requirements or waivers of small refiner renewable volume obligations by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (“EPA”) may also reduce demand for ethanol and thereby adversely affect our profitability.
Changes in the price for crude oil and unleaded gasoline affect the demand for gasoline and may impact the market price of ethanol. According to the EIA projections published in January 2021, U.S. gasoline consumption is forecast to average 9.1 million barrels per day in 2022, up from 8.8 million barrels per day in 2021. Further, according to EIA’s January projections, regular gasoline retail prices in the U.S. were expected to average $3.06 in 2022, up from $3.00 in 2021. However, more recent events, including the conflict in Ukraine, have contributed to increased volatility in global fuel markets.
Management believes that the ethanol outlook in the fiscal year 2022 will remain relatively consistent with the three months ended January 31, 2022. However, it is possible that increased volatility will occur due to the conflict in Ukraine, the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, or other unforeseen factors.