By Laura Mandaro
U.S. stocks in the week ahead face another round of reports on
how consumers are dealing with tough but recently improving job
prospects, information that could a swing market shown to make
sudden reversals on minor shifts in sentiment.
A push by Congressional Democrats to pass a new jobs-spending
package, combined with weekly jobless claims, will give investors
fresh sense at whether the 15.4 million unemployed in the U.S. will
still soon start to find work.
Then, retail sales and consumer sentiment reports, plus a
handful of quarterly results from retailers including Costco
Wholesale Corp. (COST), will show whether they're confident enough
to start spending again. And Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke
speaks Monday.
Stock strategists said factors that dominated trade in the past
week -- optimism about the improving job market, mixed reads on
consumers' buying abilities, and nervousness on the market's 66%
rise since early March -- are likely to crop up in the week
ahead.
"We're trying to come back to normalcy, with this constant fear
of the next shoe to drop," said Erik Davidson, managing director of
investments for the western U.S. for Wells Fargo & Co.'s
private bank unit.
Caution by investors looking to preserve gains by cashing out on
profits has held the market from making a bolder move higher, say
some analysts.
"It's been a long two years," Davidson said. "It's time for
people to take a deep breath."
Plus, the market is wrestling the downside of a recovering
economy - the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may raise
interest rates, now near zero percent, over the next year. Higher
benchmark rates would borrowing costs and make the U.S. dollar more
valuable, possibly curtailing gains in high-flying investments.
Stocks surged early after Friday's jobs report showed nonfarm
payrolls dropped by 11,000 in November, blowing away expectations
for a 100,000 drop.
But stocks gave up much of those gains by day's end, and even
dropped into the red for a while, in part because a surge in the
U.S. dollar sank commodities prices and stocks in resource
firms.
For the week, notable for below-average volume, the Dow Jones
Industrials Average (DJI) gained 0.8%, the S&P 500 (SPX) added
1.3% and the Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) advanced 2.6%.
The U.S. dollar ended the week 1.1% higher as measured by the
U.S. dollar index (DXY). Its nearly 16% drop this year has helped
stoke the recent rally in stocks and commodities, in part by
providing cheap credit to buy equities, oil, metals and emerging
markets currencies.
Any of these factors could change investors' daily take on where
they want to place their money - in stocks and oil, on the hope of
more gains tied to a recovery, or in assets thought to preserve
value while offering little yield, including bonds, gold and the
dollar.
"The market has had a good move, it's one of these periods where
anything could push it easily," said Andrew Brooks, head of U.S.
equity trading at T. Rowe Price & Co.
At the end of the day, said Brooks, improving economic
fundamentals will help propel stocks higher. But, he cautioned, "it
will grind higher, it won't be a moonshot."
Week ahead
Events that could sway sentiment include efforts by
Congressional Democrats to pass a $170 billion jobs-spending
package. President Barack Obama will deliver a speech Tuesday at
the Brookings Institution, where he intends to lay out his own
ideas for a narrowly targeted jobs bill, says the Wall Street
Journal.
Investors are likely listen closely to a speech Monday by Fed
chief Bernanke.
In past speeches he's reaffirmed that the Fed is likely to keep
its policy of near zero interest rates in place for an extended
period, as the central bank waits more signs the economy is firmly
in recovery mode.
But Friday's jobs report fed speculation that the Federal
Reserve would be able to raise interest rates as soon as
mid-2010.
The report "was a game changer," wrote Stephen Stanley, chief
economist for RBS Securities.
Stanley kept his outlook unchanged, that the Fed would start
raising rates in June, but said now he expects some market
participants might be "more receptive to our view."
Economists will be looking at Thursday's report on claims filed
for unemployment insurance for signs of whether the pace of layoffs
is starting to slow.
The government's report on retail sales in November is likely to
show a modest rise after a jump in October. The first report on
December consumer sentiment survey, also out Friday, may show some
recovery after a drop in the prior two months.
Plus, alternative energy stocks could bounce into the limelight
as policymakers gather in Copenhagen starting Monday for two weeks
of climate-change talks.
The world's top politicians have lowered their original goal of
setting a new global agreement on climate change to update the 1997
Kyoto Protocol.
Still, even a less ambitious resolution on lowering global
emissions could throw a spotlight on shares of many renewable
stocks, such as First Solar (FSLR), wind-power producer Iberdola
Renewables and exchange-traded Market Vectors Global Alternative
Energy ETF (GEX).
And votes by Senate lawmakers on amendments to a 10-year, $848
billion health-care bill - including amendments on abortion and the
creation of national insurance plan option - could sway health-care
stocks such as Humana Inc. (HUM), WellPoint Inc. (WLP), Aetna, Inc.
(AET) and Cigna Corp. (CI).
It's also expected to be a busy week for capital raising, both
by the U.S. government and companies selling stocks.
The Treasury Department will sell $74 billion in notes and
bonds, including $40 billion in 3-year notes (UST3YR) on Tuesday,
$21 billion in 10-year notes on Wednesday and $13 billion in
30-year bonds (UST30Y) on Thursday.
Plus, several companies are making their U.S. stock market
debuts and issuing secondary offerings.
And eight S&P 500 companies are scheduled to announce
quarterly earnings results, including Ciena Corp. (CIEND), National
Semiconductor Corp. (NSM), Kroger Co. (KR), AutoZone Inc. (AZO) and
H&R Block Inc. (HRB)