BEIJING, May 8, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- After China's
economy mounted an impressive start to the year, global attention
has now shifted to what China
plans to do to sustain the great momentum in the recovery of the
world's second-largest economy for the rest of the year.
During a meeting at the Xi Jinping Thought on Economy Study
Center, which is affiliated with the National Development and
Reform Commission (NDRC), the top economic planning agency, experts
painted a bright picture for the economic recovery heading into the
rest of the year, citing emerging positive trends across a wide
range of areas such as consumer spending, industry, and regional
development.
Above all, experts said China's
continuously strengthening policy measures are acting as a source
of confidence in the continued recovery of the Chinese economy,
which they said will help achieve annual development goals, even
though the economy still faces challenges and risks.
"Currently, positive factors are continuously increasing in the
economic operation, but the economic recovery still faces several
challenges," Li Hui, deputy director
of the Department of National Economy of the NDRC, told reporters
at the meeting on Monday. "At the same time, we must also see the
favorable conditions for economic development, correctly understand
that a good start and a solid recovery are the basic
characteristics and trends of the current economic operation."
Going forward, Li said that solid efforts must be taken to
sustain the positive trend and maintain policy continuity to avoid
relaxation, so as to effectively consolidate and enhance the
positive trend of the economic recovery.
Despite challenges and risks, China's economy rebounded strongly in the
first quarter of the year. In the first three months of 2024,
China's GDP grew by 5.3 percent
year-on-year, beating market expectations and laying a solid
foundation for the economy to achieve the pre-set goal of growing
by around 5 percent for the whole year.
Beyond headline GDP data, China
also saw strong recovery momentum across a range of sectors,
including consumption and industrial profits. Retail sales, a main
gauge of consumption, surged by 4.7 percent year-on-year in the
first quarter, providing a main boost for the overall economic
recovery, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
"We believe that consumption has played a fundamental driving
force for the good start of the economy and solid progress of
high-quality development," Gu Yan,
head of the Research Department I at the Xi Jinping Thought on
Economy Study Center, said on Monday, noting that consumption
contributed 73.7 percent of economic growth in the first quarter of
the year.
Another major boost for the economic recovery came from the
industrial sector during the first quarter. Profits of China's major industrial firms increased 4.3
percent year-on-year over the three-month period, reversing a
2.3-percent decline registered in 2023, according to the NBS.
Value-added industrial output, an important indicator, went up 6.1
percent year-on-year in the first quarter, NBS data showed.
Mao Kejun, head of the Research Department III at the Xi Jinping
Thought on Economy Study Center, said that in the first quarter,
the industrial sector has not only seen continuous expansion in
scale, but also accelerated transition and upgrade.
"The resilience of industrial and supply chains has further
strengthened, with integrated circuit output surging 40 percent
year-on-year," Mao told reporters on Monday, noting China's complete, large-scale industrial
system is a source of confidence in the country's long-term
economic development.
Looking ahead
While Chinese experts have highlighted the impressive economic
recovery in the first quarter of the year, the main focus has been
shifted to keeping up efforts to further consolidate the recovery
momentum for the rest of the year.
A meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of
China Central Committee in April noted that the economy had secured
a good start this year, while cautioning against challenges, such
as insufficient demand, high operational pressure facing
enterprises, and an external environment that is more complicated,
grimmer and more uncertain.
Among others, the meeting stressed the need to assess the
consistency of macro policy orientation, advance large-scale
equipment renewals and trade-ins of consumer goods, introduce more
consumption scenarios, promote people-centered new urbanization,
and implement a new mechanism for cooperation between the
government and private capital, while fully stimulating private
investment.
Effectively implementing various macro policies to further
consolidate economic growth has become a top priority for the rest
of the year, according to experts.
"We will make continuous efforts in effectively implementing
macro policies, developing new quality productive forces in
accordance with local conditions, unswervingly deepening reform and
opening-up, continuing to prevent and resolve risks in key areas,
solidly promoting green and low-carbon development, and effectively
ensuring and improving people's livelihood, and promote
high-quality completion of the overall economic and social
development goals and tasks for the year," Li said.
China has set a GDP growth
target of around 5 percent for 2024, and many institutions and
experts are increasingly confident that such a target will be
achieved despite challenges, thanks to China's solid economic recovery and sufficient
policy tools.
John Ross, a senior fellow at the
Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, said in an article
published by the Global Times, that based on observations and
research over the past 30 years related to China's economy, the country will be able to
achieve its GDP growth target of around 5 percent, and will
undoubtedly remain the main driver of global economic growth.
Among the major economic drivers, consumer spending will remain
the biggest source of growth and will likely further rebound
throughout the rest of the year, experts said.
"Looking at the full year, consumption is expected to continue
to show a positive trend of recovery," Gu said, pointing to strong
policy support and solid fundamentals.
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SOURCE Global Times