BOSTON, July 1, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Electric buses are
booming, with sales growing in Europe, America, India, and other key regions. Transport
operators have shown themselves keen to electrify urban transport
and cut greenhouse gas emissions. As emissions regulations tighten,
city buses are likely to be all-electric within the next few years.
IDTechEx's report, "Electric and Fuel Cell Buses 2025-2045:
Markets, Players, Technologies and Forecasts", shows that over half
of all city bus sales in Europe in
2023 were electric (battery and fuel cell) and that some regions
are well ahead of the EU's target for 100% of new city buses to be
zero emission by 2035. However, in the coach segment, only around
1% of sales were electric across the same period, so what is
driving the excellent growth in the city segment, and will it be
replicated for coaches?
City buses are the perfect candidates for
electrification
Buses were one of the first transportation sectors to
demonstrate that they could be completely electrified. In
China, sales began at pace in the
early 2010s and reached a peak in 2016 when almost 140,000 electric
buses were sold in a single year. While the sales figures have
since declined and then plateaued – the overall bus fleet is now
over 77% electric. With over 3 quarters of buses electric, these
are not pilot projects or early successes but established incumbent
technology. Electric buses now have well over a decade of use,
transporting millions of people safely and efficiently. But what
are the unique aspects of city bus transport that have allowed
electrification to outpace other bus sectors?
Predictability: City buses, by their nature,
follow predetermined routes with set schedules every day that they
are in service. For electric buses, this means that routes can be
optimized such that range anxiety is effectively removed. Compare
this to a private passenger car, where the daily mileage might vary
substantially, and routes longer than the range of the vehicle may
be desired.
Opportunity charging: City buses are
typically confined to a single metropolitan zone, and to be useful,
transit services must stop regularly for passengers to
embark/disembark. This presents a perfect chance for opportunity
charging, where either overhead pantographs or wireless charging
can quickly top up the batteries. This allows operators to
potentially use a smaller Li-ion battery pack yet achieve the same
range. This brings cost and weight savings.
Concentration of infrastructure: Buses are
typically parked overnight in depots, and many buses may use a
single site. This allows for the concentration of infrastructure,
as building out grid capacity for a single site may allow the
charging of an entire fleet of buses. Buses typically operate
during the day, meaning they have a much longer period to charge.
Thus, lower-level trickle charging can be used rather than
grid-intensive fast charging – this also slows the battery
degradation. When the busses are operating the daily routes, this
infrastructure can then be utilized by other vehicles such as
public charging or eLCV fleets. This generates revenue for the bus
operator and recoups some of the investment in the
infrastructure.
In summary, electric city buses are here to stay. They have
demonstrated that they can operate in a wide range of conditions –
with buses in operation from Northern
China to Southern Spain.
With correct route optimization and clever infrastructure
utilization, they can comfortably operate most routes operators
require.
What about coaches?
While city bus sales have turned increasingly electric, the
coach market, by contrast, is stagnant and almost entirely diesel.
IDTechEx research has assessed some of the challenges that hold
back electrification, both technical and economic.
Range: One of the larger technical hurdles to
overcome is range. Although energy density improvements have
allowed onboard battery storage to increase, electric vehicles
still have shorter ranges than their ICE counterparts. As battery
pack size increases, weight and volume become a challenge.
Improvements in energy density can help overcome this, but current
state-of-the-art packs are insufficient to provide adequate range.
Coach journeys are typically much longer and travel interurban,
intercity, and even international routes. As such, the limited
range is a much greater challenge than that of a city bus, which
may have a much lower daily required mileage.
Charging infrastructure: These coaches will
typically leave built-up areas behind and travel long distances on
highways without stopping. As recharging will be required, the
necessary highway infrastructure needs to be put in place for
coaches to recharge en route. Unlike city buses, which can charge
slowly overnight, these coaches are likely to need fast charging to
avoid passengers having to wait multiple hours in a remote service
station, which would increase journey times and reduce customer
satisfaction. The non-concentrated nature of coach travel (fewer
coaches will travel to a much wider range of destinations) means
that more charging infrastructure will need to be developed.
Funding: Currently, battery electric buses
are about twice as expensive as a comparable diesel bus. While
large metropolitan transport operators may be able to afford the
investment, regional coach transport operators are often much
smaller entities and thus struggle to absorb the increased costs
associated with electrifying. Government support is also less
prominent. The UK's successful ZEBRA (Zero Emissions Buses Regional
Areas) has contributed to the strong growth in electric sales, but
it explicitly excludes coaches from any subsidy support.
What options are left in this challenging environment? Fuel cell
buses, with their greater range and quicker refueling, are
considered alternatives to battery electric buses by some, but
challenges with hydrogen production and distribution remain.
Increases in Li-ion cell density will translate into greater ranges
for fully electric buses, but to what extent can these overcome the
challenges of long-haul travel? What is the regulatory outlook for
coach travel compared with city buses? IDTechEx explores these
questions and more in its in-depth review of the topic, "Electric
and Fuel Cell Buses 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Technologies and
Forecasts".
To find out more about this IDTechEx report, including
downloadable sample pages, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Buses.
For the full portfolio of electric vehicles market research
available from IDTechEx, please see
www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV.
About IDTechEx
IDTechEx provides trusted independent research on emerging
technologies and their markets. Since 1999, we have been
helping our clients to understand new technologies, their supply
chains, market requirements, opportunities and forecasts. For more
information, contact research@IDTechEx.com or
visit www.IDTechEx.com.
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