Poll was conducted after Donald Trump's RNC Speech, but before President
Biden's announcement he won't seek reelection
Vice President Harris performs similarly to
President Biden but is better able to sway undecided voters and
alleviates concerns among the democratic base
GOP has doubled its congressional ballot
performance downrange, now winning 44% to 39% for the
Democrats
WASHINGTON, July 22,
2024 /PRNewswire/ -- A national survey released
today by HarrisX and Forbes Breaking News shows former
President Donald J. Trump more than
doubling his lead over both President Joe
Biden and Vice President Kamala
Harris in the aftermath of the Republican National
Convention (RNC). The poll, taken before Biden officially dropped
out of the race, indicates Trump leading Biden among registered
voters 48%-40%, up from 45%-42% prior to RNC, and leading Harris
50% to 41%.
Among likely November voters, Trump's lead increases to double
digits: 49%-39% against Biden, with 12% undecided and 51%-40%
against Harris, with 9% as undecided voters.
The poll, which was conducted July 19-21,
2024 with 2,753 registered voters, also shows that voters
expect Trump to win in November. Nearly two in three (65%) expected
him to win against Biden and nearly as many (63%) say he would win
against Harris.
"Kamala Harris starts her 2024
battle behind Trump, who is enjoying a strong post-convention bump
and leads her by almost digits in our polling," commented Dritan
Nesho, CEO and chief pollster at HarrisX, on the findings. "If the
polls don't start to close and show better traction for her,
Biden's decision to step aside for Harris may be a case of 'too
similar, too late.' That said, Vice President Harris alleviates
concerns among the democratic base and is better able to sway
undecided independents and suburban women, showing some
promise."
C.W. Benston, VP of ForbesTV, added: The Forbes Newsroom is
committed to bringing its audience real-time, actionable and
accurate intelligence on the state of markets and the economy,
politics and the 2024 election, and momentous events like this past
weekend. That's why we have partnered with Dritan and HarrisX, the
most accurate pollster in the 2020 presidential cycle, to present
an anchored, data-driven view of the world to our audiences."
Other results from the HarrisX/ Forbes poll include:
VOTERS SHOW POSITIVE REACTIONS TO DONALD TRUMP'S RNC
SPEECH
- Trump's RNC speech broke through with voters. 78% percent
watched or heard about the speech, including 87% of Republicans,
74% of Democrats and 72% of Independents.
- Among those aware of Trump's RNC speech, a slight majority
(56%) reacted favorably to it. However, voters were divided on
whether the speech was uniting (52%) or divisive (48%).
- One-in-three (33%) voters said the speech made them more likely
to vote for the former president compared to 22% who said it made
them less likely to support the Republican candidate. Nearly half
(46%) said it made make no impact on their vote. Among Independent
voters 52% said it made no impact on their vote, 19% said it made
them less likely to support Trump while 28% said they were more
likely to vote for him.
VICE PRESIDENT HARRIS POLLS SIMILARLY TO BIDEN
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT
- The poll also shows that prior to Biden's announcement to drop
out of the race and endorse Vice President Harris, Harris was
performing similarly to President Biden across key metrics.
- President Biden's job approval is at 38%, the same as those who
say they approve of the job Harris has been doing as Vice
President. Both Biden and Harris are also seen unfavorably by a
majority of voters (58% and 53% respectively).
- However, Harris shows slightly higher job approval among young
voters (18-34) at 42% versus Biden's 36% and Hispanic (42% vs.
38%). Independent voters also appear to lean more towards Harris
than Biden, with 29% of independents saying they are leaning
towards support her over Trump versus 28% leaning towards Biden
over Trump.
GOP DOUBLES ITS LEAD IN THE GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL
BALLOT
- Republicans lead Democrats by 5 percentage points (44% to 39%)
in the generic congressional ballot among registered voters, and 8
percentage points (49% to 41%) among likely voters.
Survey Methodology
This survey was conducted online within the United States from July 19th – July 21st,
2024, among 2,753 registered voters via the HarrisX
Overnight Poll. Respondents for the HarrisX Overnight Poll are
recruited through opt-in, web-panel recruitment sampling.
Recruitment occurs though a broad variety of professional,
validated respondent panels to expand the sampling frame as wide as
possible and minimize the impact of any given panel on recruiting
methods.
The results reflect a nationally representative sample of
registered voters. Results were weighted for age, gender, region,
race/ethnicity, income, political party, education, ideology and
area type where necessary to align them with their actual
proportions in the population. The margin of error for the total
sample is +/- 1.9 percentage points.
About HarrisX
HarrisX, a Stagwell company, is a leading global market research
and data analytics company that conducts multi-method consumer and
voter research across the U.S. and over 40 countries. With offices
in Washington, D.C., New York City, London and Toronto, HarrisX advises Fortune 100
companies, public policy institutions, global leaders, NGOs, and
philanthropic organizations. According to The Washington Post and
American Research Group, HarrisX was the most accurate pollster of
the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The HarrisX Overnight Poll
runs 365 days a year in the United
States as an omnibus survey.
About Forbes Breaking News
Forbes Breaking News is a premier source for up-to-the-minute
news coverage, delivering the latest headlines on politics,
business, technology, and more. As part of Forbes Media, Forbes
Breaking News provides reliable, real-time information to keep the
public informed on key issues shaping the world today.
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SOURCE HarrisX