IDC: Artificial Intelligence Will Contribute $19.9 Trillion to the Global Economy through 2030 and Drive 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030
17 Septiembre 2024 - 7:30AM
Business Wire
Every Dollar Spent on AI Will Generate $4.60 Into the Global
Economy
New research from IDC entitled, The Global Impact of Artificial
Intelligence on the Economy and Jobs, predicts that business
spending to adopt artificial intelligence (AI), to use AI in
existing business operations, and to deliver better
products/services to business and consumer customers will have a
cumulative global economic impact of $19.9 trillion through 2030
and drive 3.5% of global GDP in 2030. As a result, AI will affect
jobs across every region of the world, impacting industries like
contact center operations, translation, accounting, and machinery
inspection. Helping to trigger this shift are business leaders who
almost unanimously, 98%, view AI as a priority for their
organizations.
AI's Net Positive Global Economic Impact
According to the research, in 2030, every new dollar spent on
business-related AI solutions and services will generate $4.60 into
the global economy, in terms of indirect and induced effects. This
is determined by:
- Increased spending on AI solutions and services driven by
accelerated AI adoption
- Economic stimulus among AI adopters, seeing benefits in terms
of increased production and new revenue streams
- Impact along the whole AI providers supply chain, increasing
revenue for the providers of essential supplies to AI solutions and
services providers
"In 2024, AI entered a phase of accelerated development and
deployment defined by widespread integration that's led to a surge
in enterprise investments aimed at significantly optimizing
operational costs and timelines," said Lapo Fioretti, senior
research analyst, Emerging Technologies and Macroeconomics, IDC.
"By automating routine tasks and unlocking new efficiencies, AI
will have profound economic consequences, reshaping industries,
creating new markets, and altering the competitive landscape."
Impact on Employment - New Roles Emerge While Others Remain
Resilient
The majority of respondents to IDC's Future of Work Employees
Survey expect some (48%) or most (15%) parts of their work to be
automated by AI and other tech over the next two years, while only
a minority (3%) of employees expect their jobs to be fully
automated by AI.
While some work will be negatively impacted by the proliferation
of AI, new positions such as AI Ethics Specialists and AI Prompt
Engineers will emerge as dedicated roles within global
organizations.
The research further indicates that a "human touch intensity,"
combined with the level of "task repetitiveness" by which each job
is characterized, will inform organizations about roles that are
subject to a full AI and automation replacement, versus those where
tech's role will be to augment human capabilities. As such,
positions where human social and emotional capabilities are
critical, such as nursing and roles where decision-making
encompasses ethics and comprehension beyond numbers will remain
robust.
"Understandably, we're all curious to know if AI will replace
our jobs," said Rick Villars, group vice president, Worldwide
Research, IDC. "As a CEO interviewed by IDC's Andrea Siviero said,
'Based on this research it's clear that we should be asking
ourselves how our jobs can be made easier and better by AI. AI will
not replace your job but someone who knows how to use AI better
than you will.'"
Research Methodology
To estimate the overall economic impact of a technology or a
service, IDC developed an economic impact methodology that combines
IDC knowledge of the market and internal data with a standard
analytical framework, known as an Economic Impact Analysis. It
leverages an input-output (I/O) framework, using the most updated
input-output official tables of a specific economy: through I/O
tables, specific multipliers are determined and applied to the
specific technologies to calculate the related effect. This IDC
Economic Impact Analysis evaluates three types of impact on the
economy. In this AI-specific model, these are:
- Direct Effect - includes revenues from artificial
intelligence business solutions/services providers directly selling
their products to end users.
- Indirect Effect - refers to the economic impact related
to the AI supply chain and AI adopters' benefits. It includes the
effects that organizations/tech providers have on the region or
country due to their operations related to AI provision.
- Backward indirect effects refer to the economic effects on
supply chains and industries that provide inputs to AI-driven
sectors — in other words, revenues generated in local industries
impacted by AI.
- Forward indirect effects refer to the effects on AI adopters,
excluding consumers, that benefit from the adoption of AI
technology, in terms of productivity, revenue growth, and other
business parameters.
- Induced Effect - these are effects induced by the
increase in production. It refers to the impact, due to economic
stimulus, from an increase in household income, including existing
and new employees linked to the AI value chain across direct and
indirect effects layers. People will spend part of their wages in
the economy, thus generating additional economic impact.
"The importance of economic impact models is increasing. This
type of analysis can be of importance for any vendor who wants to
understand the impact of its specific products or services in a
short or medium-term period. It helps not only businesses but also
governments and other stakeholders make informed decisions by
evaluating the potential benefits of a technology investment, for
example, to the economy," said Carla La Croce, research manager,
Data and Analytics, IDC.
The IDC report, The Global Impact of Artificial Intelligence on
the Economy and Jobs: AI will Steer 3.5% of GDP in 2030 (Doc
#US51057924), assesses the impact of artificial intelligence in
terms of economic output and employment. This assessment leverages
IDC's knowledge of the market and internal data, as well as IDC's
Economic Impact model, which considers the direct, indirect, and
induced effects of AI in the economy. The study delves into the
global impact of AI on the economy, diving deep into specific
regions, technology layers, and industries. The goal is to assess
AI's cumulative contributions to the economy with respect to the
forecast global GDP in 2030.
About IDC International Data Corporation (IDC) is the
premier global provider of market intelligence, advisory services,
and events for the information technology, telecommunications, and
consumer technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts
worldwide, IDC offers global, regional, and local expertise on
technology, IT benchmarking and sourcing, and industry
opportunities and trends in over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and
insight helps IT professionals, business executives, and the
investment community to make fact-based technology decisions and to
achieve their key business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a
wholly owned subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the
world's leading tech media, data, and marketing services company.
To learn more about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on
Twitter at @IDC and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for
industry news and insights.
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Michael Shirer, IDC 508-935-4200 press@idc.com
Escalate PR for IDG idg@escalatepr.com