Oil Bull Market Is No Place For MLP ETF Investors - ETF News And Commentary
19 Marzo 2012 - 5:01AM
Zacks
Thanks to an improved economic outlook, promise in the Greek
debt deal, and tensions with Iran, energy commodity prices have
been on the rise in 2012. WTI crude has added about $10/bbl. so far
this year while gains from the past six months are equally
impressive, coming in at about $20/bbl. Many analysts expect that
this is just beginning for the vital commodity as economic trends
continue to be favorable while the Iranian crisis doesn’t appear to
be ending anytime soon either.
As a result of this reversal in outlook for the oil sector,
strong gains have also been in the equity side of the oil market as
well. Oil service ETFs as well as those in the exploration sector
have seen double digit gains so far in 2012, led by
PXE’s 16.6% gain and IEO’s 12.7%
surge. Meanwhile, the jump in oil has also helped the beaten down
clean energy sector too, as the Progressive Energy ETF
(PUW) added about 17.2%
in year-to-date terms, while the most popular Solar ETF
(TAN) added 13.3% in the
same time period (read Time To Consider The Small Cap Oil ETF).
However, this strength has not filtered over into the MLP ETP
space as well. These securities have lagged behind their peers by a
wide margin in 2012, although they have still managed to squeak by
in the positives so far. In fact, of the ten worst performing
energy ETFs so far this year—including alternative energy, coal,
etc.—MLP products occupy half of the spots. Only the UBS
E-TRACS Wells Fargo MLP ETN
(MLPW) managed to place
outside of the bottom ten, coming in 20th overall.
This significant underperformance may be a surprise to many
investors given the increased popularity of the product in recent
years. Two MLP funds—AMJ and
AMLP—both have more than $2.5 billion in AUM while
another two have amassed more than $200 million. Additionally, the
sector has been a top performer from a one year perspective, as MLP
funds take up all six of the top spots from a 52 week return view
(Read Is An Oil Sands ETF On The Horizon?).
Beyond this solid performance from the one year level, MLPs have
become very popular among investors due to their higher levels of
income which can often crush dividend payouts of comparable
equities. This is because MLPs are generally pipelines or other key
infrastructure assets which pay out solid rates back to investors
on a regular basis.
Unfortunately, however, this strategy means that when oil prices
are surging they do not benefit as much as some of their peers.
This is because the oil tends to flow through the pipelines no
matter the price of the commodity, a situation that promotes safety
but can hurt total returns in bull market environments (read Three
ETFs For An Iranian Crisis).
This has especially been the case so far in 2012 as oil futures
ETFs have seen solid performances in the first two months of the
year. This has pushed exploration and service focused stocks and
ETFs into a leadership role, leaving MLP funds and notes by the
wayside. So while MLP ETNs and ETFs may be extremely popular among
many investors, surging oil prices aren’t exactly their best friend
(read Closer Look The Canadian Energy Income ETF).
MLPs tend to perform similarly no matter what the price of oil
is and can be better performers in times of weak prices. Thanks to
this, which is evidenced by recent performance in both the MLP and
equity markets, investors who are expecting a further run in oil
could be better served by exploration and service firms while those
expecting a bear market in crude, but still want to remain in the
space, could be better off looking at MLP products instead.
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