RE/MAX Canada
expects average residential prices to rise by 0.5 per cent in
2024
- Three-quarters of Canadians (73 per cent) believe that home
ownership is the best long-term investment (unchanged from last
year)
- While average residential sale price in 61 per cent of regions
is expected to increase between two and 7.5 per cent in 2024, 18
per cent of markets analyzed are anticipating a decrease between
two to five per cent, while 18 per cent will remain flat in
2024
- Housing market conditions are anticipated to be varied in 2024,
with 42 per cent expected to balance out, while 29 per cent are
expected to favour sellers, 21 per cent to favour buyers, and four
per cent to experience mixed conditions.
TORONTO and KELOWNA,
BC, Nov. 28, 2023 /CNW/ -- Canadians' outlook
on home ownership remains positive, according to a new report from
RE/MAX Canada, despite challenging
market conditions in 2023, including a persistent housing shortage,
and a tricky interest rate environment. According to
the RE/MAX 2024 Housing Market Outlook Report, the
majority of Canadians (73 per cent) are confident that home
ownership is the best investment, a sentiment that remains
unchanged year-over-year. Looking ahead, the RE/MAX network of
brokers and agents expects the market to be slightly more active in
2024, with national average residential sale prices likely to
increase by 0.5 per cent and 61 per cent of regions surveying
anticipating unit sales to increase in 2024.
Download the 2024 Housing Market Outlook Report Data
Table
"It's been a challenging year for Canadian homebuyers and
sellers, who have been feeling the effects of a severe housing
shortage and the high cost of living, but much like Canada's housing market, Canadians have stayed
resilient. Historically, real estate has given owners excellent
returns and strong financial security – and that hasn't changed,"
says Christopher Alexander,
President, RE/MAX Canada. "The
slower market we've been experiencing across the country this fall
could be an early indicator of an active 2024, as reflected in the
modest price increase and sales outlook for next year, and the
balancing of conditions in several regions across the country."
Canadian Consumer Insights
According to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX Canada as part of the report, the majority of
Canadians (72 per cent) believe that as municipal, provincial and
federal governments make plans to increase housing supply, it's
important that they consider the diversity of the new housing
that's developed.
When it comes to home-buying trends in 2024, the Leger survey
reveals that more than four in 10 Canadians believe climate
change will impact their decision on where to buy a home next year
(41 per cent); while approximately one in five (21 per cent) are
exploring alternative home ownership, or opting for
inter-provincial/city moves (17 per cent) in search of greater
affordability in the neighbourhood they love.
Regional Market Insights
RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada were asked to provide a year-over-year
analysis of their local market between
January 1 and October 31, and share their estimated outlook
for 2024. Based on their insights, the majority of regions surveyed
noted many homebuyers are looking for primary residential
properties with rental potential, to get the most out of their
investment and offset the rising cost of living and reduce mortgage
payments. This is likely to be a leading influential factor heading
into 2024, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents across the
country.
Western Canada
In Western Canada, average
residential prices are anticipated to rise by two per cent in Metro
Vancouver, BC, Nanaimo, BC and Saskatoon, SK, and by four per cent in
Edmonton, AB next year. Meanwhile,
regions such as Victoria, BC, and
Regina, SK are anticipating a
modest two-per-cent decrease in average residential sale prices in
2024. Although most regions are currently considered to be balanced
markets, Saskatoon, SK is an
outlier and currently a seller's market. In 2024, Edmonton, AB, and Saskatoon, SK are expected to favour sellers,
Victoria, BC is anticipated to
shift to a buyer's market and Metro Vancouver, BC and Regina, SK foresee continuing balanced
conditions. Meanwhile the market in Nanaimo, BC is anticipated to be a mix of
buyer's and balanced in 2024.
Amid ongoing economic pressures and rising interest rates,
affordability and the cost of living continue to be top liveability
considerations for potential homebuyers in Western Canada. This has led to an increase in
demand from first-time homebuyers for primary properties that also
have the capacity to provide them with rental income, in places
such as Victoria, BC; Vancouver, BC; Edmonton, AB; Nanaimo, BC; and Saskatoon, SK. The only outlier to this trend
is Regina, SK, as the relative
affordability of the region provides homebuyers with greater
financial flexibility, as compared to other provinces.
Looking ahead to 2024, interest rates and low inventory are
likely to continue placing pressure on the market, particularly
among first-time homebuyers in regions such as Edmonton, AB, Nanaimo, BC and Saskatoon, SK. However, these same conditions
may allow Metro Vancouver, BC to
remain balanced. Although Regina,
SK provides many aspiring homeowners with a pocket of
affordability, demand and supply are not expected to skew market
conditions significantly.
Ontario
Much like Western Canada,
shifts to average residential prices are a mixed bag in
Ontario. Specifically, prices are
anticipated to increase by two per cent in Thunder Bay, ON and Ottawa, ON; three per cent London; 3.5 per cent in Hamilton, Niagara and York Region; four per
cent in Sudbury and Burlington; 4.5 per cent in Kingston; five per cent in Muskoka and
Haliburton; seven per cent in
Oakville and Simcoe County; and
7.5 per cent in Windsor and
Sault Ste. Marie. Meanwhile,
prices are anticipated to remain unchanged in Mississauga, Brampton, North
Bay, and Kenora in 2024.
Looking ahead to 2024, Peterborough and the Kawartha's and the
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are
both anticipating a slight decline of three per cent in average
residential prices, while Durham Region and Grand Bend are anticipating a decline of five
per cent. Kitchener-Waterloo is
anticipating a decrease of eight per cent in average residential
sale prices.
Despite various markets in Ontario favouring sellers or
experiencing balanced conditions in 2023, the majority of regions
are currently buyers' markets including, Kitchener- Waterloo, Hamilton, Burlington, Niagara, Mississauga, Durham Region, Brampton, Grand
Bend, North Bay, Muskoka,
Haliburton and Kingston. Although Hamilton and Burlington experienced varying conditions
throughout the year, both have shifted toward buyer's markets in Q4
of 2023. Looking ahead to next year, Mississauga, Hamilton, Burlington, Brampton, Simcoe County, Muskoka and
Haliburton are likely to balance
out from their current buyer's or seller's conditions. The GTA
market is anticipated to gain balance in 2024 but is also expected
to favour buyers at certain points of the year. Considering the
interest rate environment and the cost of living this year, housing
market conditions in 2023 have fluctuated. As interest rates have
recently paused, many markets are stabilizing with several regions
in Ontario (54 per cent), expected
to remain unchanged in 2024 from their current market conditions.
Despite cost of living becoming a more prominent consideration
for homebuyers and sellers, additional emerging liveability
trends in Ontario include the
desire for greater access to public transportation and green space,
as well as proximity to preferred schools. In tandem with
Western Canada and Atlantic Canada, both cost of living and
interest rates are the most prominent factors impacting
Ontario markets. These factors are
leading many Canadians to become resourceful and focus their
home-buying search on properties that can accommodate additional
tenants, as a means to offset mortgage costs and ongoing
affordability challenges.
Quebec
Market conditions are aligned in the Quebec province, with both Quebec City and Montreal favouring sellers. In Quebec City average residential sale price is
anticipated to remain unchanged in 2024, but the market is expected
to shift into greater balance next year. Meanwhile, Montreal is expected to move toward a buyer's
market in 2024, but that is dependent on interest rates. Although
many sellers are taking a wait-and-see approach to the market,
pressure from rising rates could encourage more homeowners to list
their properties for sale. Average residential sale prices in
Quebec City are anticipated to
remain unchanged.
Much like the rest of Canada,
the cost of living is a top consideration for Canadians in the
Quebec region. Additionally, the
return to in-person work post-pandemic has prompted rising in
properties with proximity to workplaces and public transport. In
2024, rising interest rates could limit the purchasing power of
potential homebuyers, weighing on the Quebec market.
Atlantic Canada
In Atlantic Canada, the
majority of regions are anticipating a modest increase in average
residential sale prices, including, Fredericton, NB (+3.6 per cent); Saint John, NB (+3.5 per cent); Moncton, NB (five per cent); and St. John's
& surrounding area, NL (three per cent). The only exception is
Halifax, NS, where average
residential sale price in unlikely to waiver. Currently, all
markets are considered to be seller's markets, a condition that is
expected to hold firm in 2024, with the exception of the
St. John's, NL area, where the
market is expected to regain balance in the coming year.
Looking ahead to 2024, low inventory will continue to impact
local housing market conditions in Atlantic regions. Despite this
being the most dominant factor impacting the market, rising
interest rates also hold the potential to rattle buyer confidence.
When it comes to liveability, cost of living is one of the most
prevalent trends in the Moncton,
St. John's, Fredericton, Saint
John and Halifax markets.
Current economic conditions and ongoing affordability challenges
have led first-time homebuyers in particular to expand their
homebuying search to include semi-detached homes or properties with
rental income potential.
Leger Survey Results
While the market is anticipated to cool in the first half of
2024, Canadians' perceptions of real estate as a good investment
haven't shifted since 2022. According to a Leger survey
commissioned by RE/MAX as part of the report, Canadians perceive
homeownership as the best investment they could make (73 per cent),
a number that has stayed consistent since last year's report. Yet,
more than half (54 per cent) are concerned that interest rate
increases will impact their ability to engage in the real estate
market. This will impact millennial homebuyers most acutely, with
73 per cent agreeing with this statement.
Additional insights from the Leger survey:
- Over half (54 per cent) of Canadians are concerned that further
interest rate increases will impact their ability to engage in the
real estate market in 2024
- Six in 10 Canadians (59 per cent) feel confident that working
with a professional real estate agent will bring value to the
process
- Almost half (47 per cent) of Canadians believe Canada is one of the best countries in the
world to purchase/own real estate
About the 2024 Canadian Housing Market Outlook
Report:
RE/MAX's 2024 Canadian Housing Market Outlook Report includes data
and insights from RE/MAX brokerages. RE/MAX brokers and agents are
surveyed on market activity and local developments. The overall
outlook is based on the average of all regions surveyed, weighted
by the number of transactions in each region.
About Leger
Leger is the largest Canadian-owned full-service market research
firm. An online survey of 1,516 Canadians was completed
between September 29 and October 1,
2023, using Leger's online panel. Leger's online panel has
approximately 400,000 members nationally and has a retention rate
of 90 per cent. A probability sample of the same size (1,516) would
yield a margin of error of +/- 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of
20.
About the RE/MAX Network
As one of the leading global real estate franchisors, RE/MAX, LLC
is a subsidiary of RE/MAX Holdings (NYSE: RMAX) with more than
140,000 agents in almost 9,000 offices with a presence in more than
110 countries and territories. RE/MAX Canada refers to RE/MAX of Western Canada (1998), LLC and RE/MAX
Ontario-Atlantic Canada, Inc., and RE/MAX Promotions,
Inc., each of which are affiliates of RE/MAX, LLC. Nobody in the
world sells more real estate than RE/MAX, as measured by
residential transaction sides.
RE/MAX was founded in 1973 by Dave and Gail Liniger, with
an innovative, entrepreneurial culture affording its agents and
franchisees the flexibility to operate their businesses with great
independence. RE/MAX agents have lived, worked and served in their
local communities for decades, raising millions of dollars every
year for Children's Miracle Network Hospitals® and other
charities. To learn more about RE/MAX, to search home listings or
find an agent in your community, please visit remax.ca. For the
latest news from RE/MAX Canada,
please visit blog.remax.ca.
Forward looking statements
This report includes "forward-looking statements" within the
meaning of the "safe harbour" provisions of the United States
Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Forward-looking
statements may be identified by the use of words such as "believe,"
"intend," "expect," "estimate," "plan," "outlook," "project," and
other similar words and expressions that predict or indicate future
events or trends that are not statements of historical matters.
These forward-looking statements include statements regarding
housing market conditions and the Company's results of operations,
performance and growth. Forward-looking statements should not be
read as guarantees of future performance or results.
Forward-looking statements are based on information available at
the time those statements are made and/or management's good faith
belief as of that time with respect to future events and are
subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual
performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in
or suggested by the forward-looking statements. These risks and
uncertainties include (1) the global COVID-19 pandemic, which has
impacted the Company and continues to pose significant and
widespread risks to the Company's business, the Company's ability
to successfully close the anticipated reacquisition and to
integrate the reacquired regions into its business, (3) changes in
the real estate market or interest rates and availability of
financing, (4) changes in business and economic activity in
general, (5) the Company's ability to attract and retain quality
franchisees, (6) the Company's franchisees' ability to recruit and
retain real estate agents and mortgage loan originators, (7)
changes in laws and regulations, (8) the Company's ability to
enhance, market, and protect the RE/MAX and Motto Mortgage brands,
(9) the Company's ability to implement its technology initiatives,
and (10) fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, and those
risks and uncertainties described in the sections entitled "Risk
Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial
Condition and Results of Operations" in the most recent Annual
Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q filed with
the Securities and Exchange Commission ("SEC") and similar
disclosures in subsequent periodic and current reports filed with
the SEC, which are available on the investor relations page of the
Company's website at www.remax.com and on the SEC website at
www.sec.gov. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on
forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date on
which they are made. Except as required by law, the Company does
not intend, and undertakes no duty, to update this information to
reflect future events or circumstances.
SOURCE RE/MAX Canada