Development of a new U.S. mine—from discovery to
production—takes nearly 29 years, on average
NEW
YORK, July 18, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- The United States has the second longest lead
times in the world for developing a new mine for the critical
minerals that are vital to the energy transition, according to new
report by S&P Global.* The report, Mine Development Times:
The U.S. in Perspective found that it takes an average of 29
years for such mines to go from discovery to production in
the United States, longer than any
other country except Zambia (34
years).
The long U.S. lead times stand in contrast to the country's
sizeable resource base. The U.S. copper endowment (more than 275
million metric tons in reserves and resources) is comparable to
those of Canada and Australia combined and sufficient to satisfy
domestic demand for the foreseeable future. The United States' endowment of lithium (more
than 43 million tons in reserves and resources) is more than twice
that of Australia, which currently
accounts for half of the world's lithium production.
"This new analysis underscores a fundamental challenge for the
energy transition," said Daniel
Yergin, Vice Chairman, S&P Global. "Building the new
infrastructure and adopting new technologies in the pursuit of
Net-zero 2050 goals will greatly depend on reconciling surging
demand with long lead times and other challenges presently
encountered in scaling up supply of critical materials."
The report also shows that the United
States receives strikingly less in mining exploration
budgets relative to its advanced economy peers. Such investment has
been 57% higher in Australia and
81% higher in Canada over the past
15 years. While Canada's average
lead time (27 years) was found to be only slightly better than
the United States, greater
certainty that a Canadian project will ultimately reach production
may partly explain why it attracts significantly higher
investment.
The report draws on the combined expertise of S&P Global's
Commodity Insights and Market Intelligence divisions, utilizing the
proprietary Global Metals and Mining database. It is the latest
addition to a body of research focused on the supply and demand for
metals and critical minerals that are fundamental to the energy
transition. Previous S&P Global studies found that global
copper demand would have to nearly double over the next decade in
order to deploy the technologies critical to achieving net-zero by
2050 goals and that U.S. energy transition-related demand for
lithium, nickel and cobalt will be 23 times higher in 2035 than it
was in 2021.
The new report examines 268 mines around the world to determine
average development times from discovery to production. Most of
these mines are operating. However, some are non-operating: they
are still in development and not yet productive. For these
non-operating mines, the report assumes a start-up date of 2030.
This (optimistic) assumption provides some consistent basis on
which to capture non-operating mines.
Capturing these non-operating mines provides a truer assessment
of development times, the report says. Only three mines have come
into production in the United
States since 2002, while 10 additional non-operating
projects have remained in development for decades—one having been
in development since 1978.
"This latest research further illustrates that the United States has a vast reserve of
critical minerals," said Mohsen
Bonakdarpour, Executive Director, S&P Global Market
Intelligence. "Pre-production value of the 10 U.S. mines still in
development, though not yet operating, represent a value of more
than USD 100 billion worth of copper,
gold, lithium and zinc."
For more information on additional S&P Global studies,
please visit Inflation Reduction Act: Impact on North America
Metals and Minerals Market and The Future of Copper: Will the
Looming Supply Gap Short-circuit the Energy Transition?
*The study included mines for cobalt, copper, gold, lithium,
nickel, palladium, platinum, vanadium and zinc
About the Study:
Mine Development Times: The U.S. in Perspective is
available at
https://cdn.ihsmarkit.com/www/pdf/0724/SPGlobal_NMA_DevelopmentTimesUSinPerspective_June_2024.pdf
This study offers an independent and objective assessment of the
time taken from first discovery to first production for mines. Its
focus is the U.S. which is compared with peers Canada and Australia. It aims to provide a full
perspective of development times by considering both mines that
have come online and those still in development.
The study was supported by the National Mining Association of
the US (NMA). The Association did not provide data or substantive
input to the report. S&P Global is solely responsible for the
analysis and conclusions in the report.
About S&P Global
S&P Global (NYSE: SPGI) provides essential intelligence. We
enable governments, businesses and individuals with the right data,
expertise and connected technology so that they can make decisions
with conviction. From helping our customers assess new investments
to guiding them through ESG and energy transition across supply
chains, we unlock new opportunities, solve challenges, and
accelerate progress for the world.
We are widely sought after by many of the world's leading
organizations to provide credit ratings, benchmarks, analytics and
workflow solutions in the global capital, commodity and automotive
markets. With every one of our offerings, we help the world's
leading organizations plan for tomorrow, today. For more
information, visit www.spglobal.com
Media Contacts:
Jeff Marn
S&P Global Commodity Insights
+1 202 463 8213
jeff.marn@spglobal.com
Kate Smith
S&P Global Market Intelligence
+1 781 301 9311
katherine.smith@spglobal.com or
press.mi@spglobal.com
View original
content:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/united-states-ranks-next-to-last-in-development-time-for-new-mines-that-produce-critical-minerals-for-energy-transition-sp-global-finds-302199858.html
SOURCE S&P Global