BOSTON, May 9, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- In a new report, experts from The Brattle Group
examine the rapidly changing landscape of load drivers and how they
complicate load forecasting for utilities and system operators. The
authors find that improved forecasting – the projection of future
peak demand and energy consumption – with the inclusion of these
new drivers will be an essential component in the transition to a
decarbonized electricity system that is both reliable and
affordable.
The report, Electricity Demand Growth and Forecasting in a
Time of Change, provides an overview of several new and
emerging demand drivers that will affect the growth and patterns of
load in the coming decades and the ways in which utilities are
currently including them in their forecasts. The new drivers
include data centers, the expansion of manufacturing and industrial
processes, the electrification of transportation and buildings, and
cryptocurrency mining. The potential impact of
demand-side resources – including distributed generation (DG),
energy efficiency (EE), and demand response (DR) – that can
partially offset these load drivers is also considered.
"Currently, there is a wide spectrum among utilities in how they
account for these new drivers," said Brattle Principal T. Bruce Tsuchida. "The future net load growth
spurred by the new drivers is vast, and our analyses suggest that –
given this growth, along with the change in load characteristics
and other associated uncertainties – the industry will require a
revamped approach to load forecasting moving forward."
Notable findings from the report include:
- The combined speed and magnitude of the new growth drivers
point towards a sustained period of high electric demand growth for
many parts of the US, though it is likely that growth will vary
substantially across regions and even within a utility's footprint.
This highlights the importance of longer-term forecasting specific
to each area's circumstances.
- The potential to moderate the growth of both electricity
consumption and peak load through DG, EE, and DR programs is
also material; however, the degree of moderation will likely vary
substantially based on the programs implemented in a given area.
With the expected net load growth, advanced and granular
forecasting that fully includes these resources will be
necessary.
- Though public documents show that many utilities have made
significant progress in incorporating these changing drivers into
their forecasts, very few forecasts appear to reflect the full set
of new drivers.
The report also includes a discussion of the costs of over- and
under-forecasting load, both individual drivers and as a whole. The
authors find that, in today's world – where many of the new drivers
are policy-driven (by, for example, decarbonization targets or
industry onshoring policies), the costs and long-lasting impact of
under-forecasting are much larger than those of
over-forecasting.
Electricity Demand Growth and Forecasting in a Time of
Change was coauthored by Principal T. Bruce Tsuchida, Managing Energy Associates Dr.
Long Lam and Akhilesh Ramakrishnan, Senior Advisor
Peter Fox-Penner, Energy Specialists
Sylvia Tang and Adam Bigelow, and Senior Energy Analyst
Ethan Snyder. The full report can be
found on Brattle's website:
https://www.brattle.com/insights-events/publications/electricity-demand-growth-and-forecasting-in-a-time-of-change/.
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SOURCE The Brattle Group