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15 horas hace
Oil Misinformation? The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | October 3, 2024
Is the Biden Administration creating fake oil news to manipulate oil prices? Are they conspiring with hedge funds to crash prices? This is an explosive charge being floated by Zero-Hedge after a series of articles in recent years from unnamed sources that failed to prove to be true but have had major impacts on prices led by massive hedge fund market participation.
Zerohedge Tweeted “So the Biden admin is now pretending to be “OPEC sources” and rotating Reuters, FT and WSJ to leak fake news that hammer oil.” While there is no proof of wrongdoing by anybody, Zero Hedges charges has some eyebrows are being raised.
Especially after some recent stories that did not make a lot of sense and unprecedented short hedge-fund short positions that were starting to be amassed during a light volume Labor Day holiday trade. Zerohedge also did not provide any evidence of its charge.
3 days ago, it was a story from the Financial Times that OPEC had abandoned its $100 barrel price target, A target I pointed out, did not exist in the first place.
The FT Story was not bullish for oil prices, and it wrote that “officials in the kingdom are committed to bringing back that production as planned on December 1, even if it leads to a prolonged period of lower prices, the people said. The Ft said that that ‘The prospect of Riyadh ditching its unofficial target hit the price of oil and the shares of oil companies on Thursday.”
The Problem is that no one in the OPEC plus cartel confirmed that they were committed to bringing production back online. In fact, Russian Minister Alex Novak denied that any decision on that was made.
Yet the FT reported that “The shift in thinking represents a major change of tack for Saudi Arabia, which has led other Opec+ members in repeatedly cutting output since November 2022 in an attempt to maintain high prices.”
Yesterday it was a story from the Wall Street Journal that ‘The Saudi oil minister has said prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if so-called cheaters within OPEC+ don’t stick to agreed-upon production limits, according to delegates in the cartel. The remarks were interpreted by other producers as a veiled threat from the kingdom that it is willing to launch a price war to keep its market share if other countries don’t abide by the group’s agreements, they said.”
Yet while you must trust that OPEC is telling ther truth, but they denied that story.
OPEC put out a long tweet on X that started ‘With reference to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) article, dated 2 October 2024, titled “Saudi Oil Min Said Prices May Fall to $50/B if Others Cheat, Sources Say,” the OPEC Secretariat categorically refutes the claims made within the story as wholly inaccurate and misleading.”
OPEC has been critical of many press services even banning some reporters from meetings because of what they view as false and misleading reporting.
There are two sides to every story there have been many questionable unnamed soured oil stories over the years that have been just to convenient.
Like for example during the Biden nuclear talks with Iran, when every oil got to resistance, a story would come out that the Biden Administration was lifting all sanction on Iranian oil. While Biden failed to enforce sanctions, the stories were not true but did cause some big price dops every time the headline came out.
I could sight other examples over the last few years, but we are a futures market that looks forward and not backward.
Headlines move oil prices, today oil prices pumped on war- risk pulled back on a report that Libya’s largest oil field to resume output Thursday. Libya to resume oil production today after a settlement of a political dispute. Oil was waiting of Israel’s response to the Iranian attack. As Reuters reported Iran fired hundreds of missiles at Israel on Tuesday in response to Israeli airstrikes and attacks. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Iran made a big mistake and would pay for it, and Iran threatened a crushing response if Israel retaliated.
Yesterday oil ran right up to resistance and was looking for an excuse to break out higher but pulled back to support after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a surprise crude oil supply increase of 3.9 million barrels from the previous week. That was different from the supply draw that was reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
EIA puts us crude supply in commercial inventories at 416.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year.
The SPR of course is still way down but increased by 700,00 barrels.
EIA said gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from last week, different from the draw reported by the API.
and distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.3 million barrels last week and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year.
Gasoline demand is rocking as EIA reported that over the past four weeks, motor demand averaged 8.7 million barrels a day, up by 4.9% from the same period last year.
Of oil is still concerned about an increasing risk of a supply disruption coming from Iran. President Biden yesterday said he did not support Israel attacking Iranians nuclear sites if they can’t attack the nuclear sites the best way to send them a message is to attack their oil infrastructure.
Yet Reuters says not to worry. Reuters reports that “OPEC has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for a full loss of Iranian supply if Israel knocks out that country’s facilities, but the producer group would struggle if Iran retaliated by hitting installations of its Gulf neighbors.
The energy reports base case for some time it’s at the price of oil and products seem to be out of whack with the tight global supply situation and demand that continues to be at record highs around the globe we think the market could be sleepwalking into a supply spike if we find out that the emperor has no clothes , Be careful about a big upside extension the big spike
The potential risk has seen option prices really start to increase in the value Hopefully those that took advantage of the options here starting to feel a little bit of reward.
Natural gas prices as well are starting to make their move higher the tropical storm situation is an issue that the market must keep an eye on. Today we will get the Energy Information Administration objection report. Reuters says that U.S. utilities likely added a smaller-than-usual 57 billion cubic feet (bcf) of natural gas into storage last week, according to the average estimate in a Reuters poll on Wednesday.
That compared with an injection of 87 bcf during the same week a year ago and a five-year (2019-2023) average increase of 98 bcf for this time of year. In the prior week ended Sept. 20, utilities added 47 bcf of gas into storage USOILN=ECI. If correct, the forecast for the week ended Sept. 27 would increase stockpiles to 3.549 trillion cubic feet, about 3.8% above the same week a year ago and around 5.7% above the five-year average for the week.
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23 horas hace
3 Oil Stocks to Watch Amid Middle East Conflict
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 2, 2024
• Iran yesterday launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel
• Israel's air strikes recently killed Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon
Oil stocks are back in focus, but not because of the U.S. presidential election. Rising tension in the Middle East put black gold back in the spotlight, after Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel. This follows Israel's air strikes, which killed several Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon, where militants and Israeli troops are currently fighting.
The conflict could disrupt crude production and distribution, thus lowering supplies and hiking prices. Below, let's dig into how sector giants Marathon Oil Corp (NYSE:MRO), Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY), and Exxon Mobil Corp (NYSE:XOM) are faring amid the escalation.
MRO was last seen trading near breakeven at $27.62, losing steam after rallying from a pullback to familiar support at the $25 level, which contained losses in early September. Shares now sport a 27.6% year-to-date lead, and added 7.9% in the past 12 months.
OXY is down 1% to trade at $52.74 at last glance. The shares recently bounced off their lowest level since 2022, but carry a 12.1% deficit for 2024, and a 15.2% year-over-year loss.
XOM is within striking distance of its April 12, year-to-date high of $123.75, last seen up 0.5% at $120.47. The equity also conquered resistance at the $120 level, which capped several rallies since that peak. Exxon Mobil has tacked on 17.7% so far this year.
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2 días hace
Crude Inventories Rise By 3.9 Million Barrels, Exceeding Analyst Expectations
By: Vladimir Zernov | October 2, 2024
Key Points:
• Gasoline inventories increased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve grew from 381.9 million barrels to 382.6 million barrels.
• Oil prices moved away from session highs as traders reacted to the report.
On October 2, 2024, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories increased by 3.9 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of -1.3 million barrels. At current levels, crude inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of the year.
Total motor gasoline inventories grew by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst forecast of -0.1 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories declined by 1.3 million barrels.
Crude oil imports increased by 171,000 bpd, averaging 6.6 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.6 million bpd.
Domestic oil production increased by 13.2 million bpd to 13.3 million bpd as companies got back to work after the hurricane.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 381.6 million barrels to 382.6 million barrels as U.S. continued to buy oil for reserves.
WTI oil moved away from session highs as traders reacted to the report. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle below the $71.50 level. It remains to be seen whether the bearish report puts significant pressure on oil prices today. Traders stay focused on the situation in the Middle East and wait for Israel’s response to Iran’s attack.
Brent oil pulled back below the $75.50 level after the release of the EIA data. Most likely, Middle East tensions will remain the key driver for Brent oil in today’s trading session.
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2 días hace
Thunderstruck. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | October 2, 2024
Record oil shorts seemed thunderstruck that the rising threat of a direct conflict between Iran and Israel could impact oil prices in a world where demand is at record highs and supplies are tightening. The wake-up call and oil realty check came to short sellers after Iran unleashed the largest ballistic missile attack against Israel in history. The Wall Street Journal reported that many the missiles were intercepted but there were impacts in central and southern Israel, officials said. Health authorities there reported no deaths and only minor injuries with the help of the US. Yet this raises the stakes and the risk to global oil supply.
Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu said Iran made a big mistake and ‘will pay’. Israel in the past has warned Iran that any attack on Israeli soil would be met by Israel with attack on their nuclear facilities and or their oil producing and refining capabilities.
The Iranian attack overshadowed the bearish factors for oil such as the Longshoreman’s port strike and reports that Saudi Arabia warns of $50 a barrel oil and supposedly hinted that if OPEC overproducers did not adhere to production targets, they might increase crude volumes to teach them a lesson.
Yet the company the oil market has been historic as the market ignored rapidly tightening oil supplies. The argument that demand from China has been slow to be tempered by the massive stimulus package in China and the fact that the Chinese stock market has had one of the biggest price explosions since the 2008 financial crisis.
The latest data from the American Petroleum Institute showed yet another drawdown in US oil supply as they reported the crude supply last week fell by 1.451 million barrels continuing the US supply drain. Diesel supply fell by a more than expected 2.666 million barrels and gas supply eked out a slight 909,000-barrel increase. Yet hedge-funds downplayed any real risk to oil supply and had a pessimistic outlook on demand even as report after report seemed to suggest that that pessimism was unwanted. Short sellers in Brent crude oil exceeded longs for the first time in recorded history while us oil inventories in the Cushing, Oklahoma delivery point near multi-year lows and Gulf Coast refiners were paying a premium to the WTI futures for supply.
Now with the rising risk of war it makes some wonder about the wisdom of drawing down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to near a 40-year low. Oh sure, they are starting to buy oil back for the reserve but fail to have the money to bring back the reserve to its former glory, reducing its effectiveness as a deterrent or its ability to respond to an emergency.
Now we’ll wait for response by Israel that has effectively destroyed much of Hezbollah’s capabilities and attacking Israel they say they thwarted another attack on their country by their aggressive actions against Hezbollah and warn that they will respond to Iran’s aggression on their country. Iran’s missile attack on Israel was over barring further provocation, they also said that any Israeli response to the attack, would be met with “vast destruction”. The Wall Street Journal said Israel’s military signaled it would retaliate, though it didn’t provide details of how or when it would respond.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) also is reporting news that Saudi Arabia may be close to starting a production war. The WSJ wrote, “The Saudi oil minister has said that prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if so-called cheaters within OPEC+ don’t stick to agreed-upon production limits, according to delegates in the cartel. The statements were interpreted by other producers as a veiled threat from the kingdom that it is willing to launch a price war to keep its market share if other countries don’t abide by the group’s agreements, they said. Key members of an alliance made of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, are set to discuss whether to ease production curbs in December at a scheduled online gathering Wednesday.”
I agree that Saudi Arabia is showing a little bit of frustration with the OPEC cheaters, but we are seeing better signs of compliance. I don’t think that this talk was a veil threat to increased production but obviously if the cheaters like Iraq don’t rein in overproducing, then maybe the Saudis will raise output. At this point I think that would be unwise because the supply and demand fundamentals should start to turn these prices and if we see a disruption in Iranian supplies, which is increasingly likely, we could see a massive turn around and need more production anyway.
As far as OPEC tension…Amena Bakr reporting from the Gulf Intelligence Energy Markets Forum in Fujairah show the United Arab Emirates agreed with Saudi Arabia that they will see and should see better compliance to production cuts. UAE Minister of Energy & Infrastructure Suhail Al Mazrouei said that “OPEC plus + countries are trying to balance supply and demand as much as possible, we are not perfect, but imagine the world without this group, we would be in chaos.
Well, I think the world is in chaos. Partly because of terrible short sighted energy policy in the US.
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5 días hace
Brown Loafers. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | September 27, 2024
In the world of commodities, oil is a brown loafer in a world of tuxedos, to steal a line from the late Geoge Gobel.
After China unleased its massive stimulus, the Chinese stock market soared along with almost every commoity from copper and aluminum zinc grains and steel rebars, yet oil languishes on the heels of a dubious story that Saudi Arbia is going to abandon a $100 a barrel price target that they never had in the first place.
Oil also bought into the possibility that Saudi Arbia would start a production war to regain market share that, they have been regaining anyway as US shale output goes flat.
This come as OPEC over producers are reigning in over production and making good on promises to make compensation cuts on previous over production in the past.
So, for Saudi Arbia to start a production war now would be like punting on third down on the goal line. It would not make any sense.
Oh yes, there will be an increase in production in December, but as former OPEC cheaters make compensation cuts the increase will only reflect the seasonal uptick in oil demand and not substantially build global oil inventories.
In fact, the net increase might only be about 300,00 to 500,000 barrels a day and that should keep us in a supply deficit and would not lead to any increase in global oil inventories in fact quite the opposite.
Pointed out earlier this week global inventories are tightening significantly it’s almost like there is a concerted effort to keep oil prices low and they were pulling out all the stops to do so. As we pointed out the hedge funds have been heavily on the short side of the market.
Yet we are seeing some signs that the markets getting ready to turn for example the crack spreads especially in diesel have started to turn and had a pretty good day yesterday even though oil was under pressure we also saw an uptick and the gasoline crack spread is as well. And while the market has been technically broken, we believe that the fundamentals ultimately will rule the day and oil prices have a chance to turn around the same way the copper market did in recent days.
The impact of hurricane Helene um energy demand has been substantial. Over a million people in Florida were without power after this storm hit.
Fox Weather Reported that Helene continues to weaken and is now a tropical storm after it made landfall along Florida’s Big Bend region late Thursday night as a powerful Category 4 hurricane, unleashing deadly effects on the Southeast including destructive hurricane-force wind gusts, an “unsurvivable” storm surge and torrential, flooding rain.
At least two people have reportedly been killed because of the storm in Wheeler County, Georgia, after a mobile home was damaged during one of the many Tornado Warnings that were issued. According to a report from FOX 5 in Atlanta, a third death in Georgia is also being investigated after reports of a vehicle that crashed into a tree in Colquitt County.
And at least one person was killed in Florida after a crash on Interstate 4 in the Tampa area that involved a highway sign on top of a vehicle. Helene made landfall about 10 miles west-southwest of Perry, Florida, at 11:10 p.m. ET Thursday, and impacts have been felt across the Southeast and into portions of the Mid Atlantic. T the monster storm pushed farther inland and began to weaken.
While wind does remain a concern, the greatest threat from Helene continues to be the flash flooding as torrential rain falls across the region, sending rivers and streams out of their banks, onto roads and into communities, trapping residents according to Fox Weather, Download the Fox Weather ap to keep up with the latest because Hurricane season is not done.
The concerns about oversupply in the natural gas world are real but easing a bit. Producers have been warning about the possibility of a supply glut as big producers in associated gas producers can’t seem to restrain themselves when it comes to producing more natural gas.
Scott Disavino at Reuters writes that “U.S. energy company EQT (EQT.N), opens new tab plans to reverse some natural gas production curtailments in October and November as demand for the fuel and prices increase, CEO Toby Rice told Reuters on Wednesday.
EQT, the biggest U.S. gas producer, has along with other U.S. drillers curtailed output in 2024 after prices collapsed to multi-year lows in the spring following a mild winter that left a tremendous oversupply of fuel in storage.
Yet John Kemp points out that “US natural gas stocks are still rising much more slowly than average for the time of year as low prices encourage maximum consumption by generators. Inventories were just 226 billion cubic feet (+7% or +0.80 standard deviations) above the prior ten-year seasonal average on September 20 with the surplus shrinking from 538 bcf (+20% or +1.44 standard deviations) as recently as July 5. Stocks are on course to start the winter of 2024/25 at a plentiful but not excessive level.
So, in other word if we get a cold winter, it might challenge the notion of oversupply. Yet if we do not the possibility of a glut will come back into focus. WE Also need the government to stop with these LNG export reviews as it is doing harm to the US gas industry and down the rad the global economy.
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5 días hace
WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | September 28, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of September 24, 2024.
WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 172.1k, up 29.9k.
Oil bulls went after a well-established, but broken, range between $71-72 and $81-$82, but to no avail. This continued for five sessions through Wednesday, with Tuesday even tagging $72.40 intraday, but the bulls could not quite pull it off. By the end of the week, West Texas Intermediate crude dropped four percent to $68.18/barrel.
The crude is now down in nine of the last 12 weeks. This week’s drop ended a couple of positive weeks, after it fell to $65.27 intraday on the 10th (this month). Earlier, WTI turned back down after hitting $84.52 in July, preceded by highs of $87.63 in April and $95.03 last September. Given this pattern of lower highs, the breach of $71-72 could prove to be important the longer it stays down. This month’s low has gained in significance, as does the May 2023 low of $63.57.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to September 20th was unchanged week-over-week at 13.2 million barrels per day. In August, weekly output hit a record 13.4 mb/d twice. Crude imports increased 134,000 b/d to 6.5 mb/d. Stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates all dropped – by 4.5 million barrels, 1.5 million barrels and 2.2 million barrels respectively to 413 million barrels, 220.1 million barrels and 122.9 million barrels. Refinery utilization declined 1.2 percentage points to 90.9 percent.
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6 días hace
Natural Gas Rallies to Trendline Resistance, Breakout Possible
By: Bruce Powers | September 27, 2024
• With a new high of 2.93, natural gas rallies toward resistance, raising the possibility of a breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern in the coming days.
Despite a potential bearish reversal day yesterday, natural gas continued to ascend on Friday to a new trend high of 2.93. However, it continues to trade near the highs of the day and may yet show further gains before trading closes for the week. The advance followed an initial dip below Thursday’s 2.73 low earlier in Friday’s session, to the day’s low of 2.72. Subsequently, buyers took back control to help drive the price of natural gas to a new trend high. The day shows characteristics like a bullish reversal day and therefore the rally may continue heading into next week.
Possible Symmetrical Triangle Breakout
As discussed previously in this column, natural gas has been tracing out a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern for over six months. The first lower boundary line rises from the February trend low, but a new and higher bottom line was added once the late-August higher swing low was established.
Once price reverses from the low end of a consolidation pattern, the chance for a move to the opposite side of the pattern increases. Support was successfully tested at the low end of the natural gas symmetrical triangle at the late-August low. The subsequent rally opened the possibility of an eventual test of resistance at the top downtrend line.
Bullish Reversal Today Shows No Sign of Stopping
Today’s high may be that test as natural gas is very close to the top trendline. So far today, it has found resistance at the interim swing high from May 23. However, given the clear bullish momentum that has followed the drop below yesterday’s low from earlier today, the top trendline may be hit in the coming days or a breakout through the line could occur. Today is likely to end with a wide range green candle and the close is on track to be strong, in the top quarter of the day’s trading range, which also means it closes near the highs for the week.
Can Natural Gas Breakout and then Keep Rising?
Since upward momentum began after price was rejected to the upside from the 200-Day MA support area last week, a breakout above the trendline in the coming days may not see enough buying pressure to continue to support higher prices in natural gas before a pause or retracement. There is also a good chance the top line will retain resistance and lead to a retracement before an attempt at an upside breakout occurs. Keep in mind that such a move would also trigger a bullish breakout of the triangle formation as well as a trendline. Nonetheless, other than prior swing highs the first higher target looks to be around 3.45.
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6 días hace
NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | September 28, 2024
The NY Crude Oil Futures closing today at 6818 is immediately trading down about 4.84% for the year from last year's settlement of 7165. As of now, this market has been declining for 5 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's low of 7146 on a closing basis, then it will remain weak for now. This price action here in September is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking under the previous month's low dropping to 6527 intraday and remains trading beneath that level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 6913 and support forming below at 6797. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 7240, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of September 9th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 7240 to 6695. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of September 23rd reaching 7240 failed to exceed the previous high of 8016 made back during the week of August 12th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 6717. Resistance is to be found starting at 7452. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in April at 8767. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8070, it made last high in April. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in September, this market has held above last month's low of 7146 reaching 7146.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 8767 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 9503 back during September 2023. Critical support still underlies this market at 6760 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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1 mes hace
Natural Gas Nears Critical 50-Day MA Test Amid Rally
By: Bruce Powers | September 2, 2024
• As natural gas continues to rally, key resistance at the 50-Day MA looms, with a double bottom pattern hinting at further upside potential.
Natural gas continued to rally on Monday with a new trend high of 2.20. It is now very close to completing a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA, currently at 2.215. There is a chance that the moving average line may be exceeded, especially given today’s advance and the early successful test of support at the 20-day MA.
The 20-Day line was busted seven days ago and today will be the first day with a low above the 20-Day line. That is a sign of strength that needs further confirmation. Tuesday’s session may be more telling as both the United States and Canada are on holiday today and that takes liquidity out of the market.
Next Pivot, 50-Day Moving Average
Nonetheless, today’s price action looks like it may lead to the first touch of the 50-Day MA since July 2, the day natural gas fell below both the 50-Day MA and 200-Day MA on the same day. That is because they were crossing, the 50-Day line rising above the 200-Day. Note that the recent swing high, a key pivot, is also located at an intersection of the 50-Day MA crossing below the 200-Day MA. Moreover, the breakdown on July 2 also triggered a decline below a previous swing low that had significance of its own.
The same thing may be about to happen soon as natural gas looks poised to attempt to recapture the August high of 2.30. If it does, a breakout through the intersection of the 50-Day and 200-Day MAs will also occur. That would mirror what happened during the bearish reversal from the June 3.16 peak.
Double Bottom Pattern Forming
In addition, there is a double bottom bullish reversal pattern setting up in the daily chart of natural gas. A breakout of the pattern would also occur on a rise above the 2.30 swing high. Subsequently, a daily close above that level would confirm that breakout and put the price of natural gas back above both the 50-Day and 200-Day MAs. That would leave it in a strong position to eventually challenge potential resistance around the top trendline. Depending on when it is approached, there are two Fibonacci retracement levels for reference. The 61.8% retracement is at 2.87 and the 78.6% retracement at 2.89.
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 31, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 27, 2024.
WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 216.4k, down 3.6k.
West Texas Intermediate crude began the week strong with a rise of 3.7 percent at Monday’s high, but sellers showed up just under the 200-day ($77.71), with the average once again attracting offers on Tuesday. In the end, the crude finished the week down 1.7 percent to $73.55/barrel.
Monday’s high $77.60 did not quite test the top end of a months-long range between $71-$72 and $81-$82. WTI just bounced off the bottom of the range in the prior week. Odds favor a test – again – of the support in the sessions ahead.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to August 23rd decreased 100,000 barrels per day from the prior week’s record output of 13.4 million b/d. Crude imports declined 92,000 b/d to 6.6 mb/d. As did stocks of crude and gasoline, which respectively fell 846,000 barrels and 2.2 million barrels to 425.2 million barrels and 218.4 million barrels. Distillate inventory, on the other hand, grew 275,000 barrels to 123.1 million barrels. Refinery utilization grew one percentage point to 93.3 percent.
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NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 31, 2024
Next Monday is Labor Day, which is a holiday in the United States. NY Crude Oil Futures closed today at 7355 and is trading up about 2.65% for the year from last year's settlement of 7165. This price action here in September is suggesting that this has been a bear market trend on the monthly level.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
From a perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7535 and support forming below at 7352. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time. An opening below this level in the next session will imply a decline is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of August 19th at 7146, which was down 7 weeks from the high made back during the week of July 1st. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of August 19th, which has been a move of 8.592%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of July 1st reaching 8452 failed to exceed the previous high of 8767 made back during the week of April 8th. That rally amounted to only twelve weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 7167. Resistance is to be found starting at 7859. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 12 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in April at 8767. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8070, it made last high in April. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has held above last month's low of 7146 reaching 7146.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 8767 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 9503 back during September 2023. Critical support still underlies this market at 6760 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak.
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Natural Gas Eyes 50-Day MA Amid Bullish Signals
By: Bruce Powers | August 30, 2024
• A daily close above the 20-Day MA could reinforce a bullish trend for natural gas, with the 50-Day MA and 2.30 swing high as the next targets.
Natural gas rose on Friday to trigger a one-day continuation signal for the bull trend. Subsequently, resistance was seen at the day’s high of 2.17, leading to a pullback below the opening price of 2.145. At the time of this writing, it continues to trade below the open but a little above the 20-Day MA.
It has been flirting with the 20-Day line for several days. On Tuesday, natural gas closed at resistance of the 20-Day line and then clearly above it yesterday. If it can close above the 20-Day line today, a short-term bullish outlook can be maintained. Moreover, the week is set to end with a bullish green candlestick pattern, primed for upside follow-through next week
Watching for Progressive Signs of Strength
There needs to be additional signs of strength following yesterday’s bullish breakout above the 20-Day MA to add confidence that an advance may be sustainable. A daily close above the 20-Day line would provide a new piece of evidence for a continuing bullish scenario, while a close below the line puts short-term price behavior into question as a pullback could be coming. It would also increase the possibility of an eventual failure of the bull breakout of the moving average line. This is particularly the case when Thursday’s close was strong, near the high of the day.
Double Bottom Breakout Potential
The price of natural gas looks to be heading to the 50-Day MA at 2.23 before it may encounter resistance. A key price level is the most recent swing high of 2.30 as it is part of the price structure of the downtrend. Once it is exceeded to the upside, a bullish trend reversal will be indicated. By then additional signs of strength will have occurred regarding the 200-Day MA, at 2.275 currently. In addition, an advance above the 2.30 swing high will trigger a bullish reversal of a double bottom pattern given that the second bottom was established this week.
A double bottom reversal pattern as it forms could see additional consolidation before a bullish breakout occurs. If resistance is seen around the price levels noted above, there could still be a bearish reversal and drop to lower price levels, and possibly the internal uptrend that is shown on the chart.
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Crude Oil Consolidates as Range Narrows Forming Symmetrical Triangle
By: Bruce Powers | August 29, 2024
• Crude oil tests key trendlines within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling a pending breakout that could determine the next major market move.
Crude oil continued to consolidate on Thursday between two trendlines that define a developing symmetrical triangle type consolidation pattern. The top internal trendline was tested as resistance today with the day’s high of 77.90 and it held. That high was also a successful test of resistance of the 200-Day MA (blue) as it was relatively close and follows Monday and Tuesday’s highs, which were each above the 200-Day line. The 200-Day MA is currently at 78.15. The high today also continues a series of lower swing highs that are marked by the declining trendline.
Fractal Nature of the Market
The developing small symmetrical triangle is a fractal of the larger pattern in crude. For over six months crude oil has been forming a large symmetrical triangle consolidation formation. Currently, the smaller triangle looks like it may test lower support levels before crude is ready to break out of that formation.
The lower trendline of the pattern also defines the low end of the larger symmetrical triangle. It is the closer price area that has larger implications if broken to the downside. An upside breakout through the internal downtrend line keeps crude inside the larger pattern and heading towards the top line of resistance of that pattern.
Long-term Crude Oil is Trending Up
An eventual breakout of the larger symmetrical triangle, either up or down, should see crude start to trend again. There is strong support that has defined the lower portion of the large triangle formation. Starting with the swing low in May 2023, support has been tracked by the 50-Month MA. It has been successfully tested as support numerous times since May 2023, including this month.
Although on some months crude traded below the 50-Month line, it closed above the line every month. It has not closed below the 50-Month line since January 2021. This is bullish behavior on the monthly chart. Further, the 50-Month MA crossed above the 200-Month MA in June and continues to trend higher. Meanwhile, for each of the past three months, crude has recognized support of the 200-Month MA and mostly traded above it.
Remains Above Long-term Downtrend Line
Further, the swing low in May 2023 found support around the long-term downtrend line that starts from the peak in 2008. The lower boundary line of the large symmetrical triangle starts there. Subsequently, the large symmetrical triangle that has been forming is also above support of the long-term downtrend line and the 50-Month MA. Given these long-term bullish indications it seems more likely that crude oil eventually breaks out and up from the triangle. However, a decisive drop below 72.24 gives a bearish signal and is likely to lead to lower prices.
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Comply And Repent. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | August 30, 2024
I have said many times that this is not your daddy’s OPEC. Oil prices have another reason not to break out to the downside of the lower trading range as OPEC scofflaw Iraq has seen the errors of their ways.
Iraq is repenting and making amends by announcing compensation cuts for previous offenses against the OPEC quota. And it is not just lip service but an announcement that that had cancelled a 1.0-million-barrel spot crude sale but will also defer two other 1.0 million barrels sales. In fact, S&P Global reported that, “statement posted on OPEC’s website recently revealed that the OPEC Secretariat had received “updated compensation plans from Iraq and Kazakhstan for their overproduced volumes for the first seven months of 2024”. These overproduced volumes totaled around 1.440 million barrels per day for Iraq and 699,000 barrels per day for Kazakhstan, “according to assessments made by the independent sources approved in the Declaration of Cooperation”, the statement outlined. The statement highlighted that the “entire overproduced volumes will be fully compensated for by September 2025”.
A statement posted on OPEC’s website last month revealed that the OPEC Secretariat received compensation plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and the Russian Federation “for their overproduced volumes for the first six months of 2024”. So, worry about OPEC tapering off production cuts should be offset by OPEC cheaters repentance.
Vice President Kamla Harris also repented against her call for a fracking ban that she called for back when she first ran for President but had to bow out because hardly anyone voted for her. Now that she is the Democrat Nominee for President with hardly anyone voting for her, she now says in her first sit down edited CNN interview that she made it clear that she would not ban fracking. She seemed to suggest that you should not listen to what she says, and you should ignore the fact that she was the sponsor of the ‘Green New Deal” that she really did not mean this stuff. When she said she would ban fracking on her first day as President and somehow you should be clear on how she felt, even though she never said that.
In fact, she pointed out that as Vice President she did not ban fracking. That is a bold statement considering that a Vice President does not have the authority to ban fracking in the first place. As President she could, like her current boss, offer a range of executive orders, like drilling moratorium, banning drilling on Federal lands ,and reverse all of Trump’s border policies and open the borders, but why would you think she would repeat the short sighted and dangerous policies? Just because she said her values have not changed, it does not mean she has the integrity to stand up for those values as her policies that she is touting do not seem to match her values. Unless her values are elected at any cost then it might make sense.
Oil prices are also trying to put the Libyan oil dispute in perspective even as the loss of Libyan barrels will become increasing more difficult to replace. As of yesterday, Libyan oil production was down 700,000 barrels of light crude per day. The market is hoping that the loss oil revenue to both of Libya’s political factions will bring a swift resolution to the political standoff but if not, get ready for a Labor Day price spike. Reuters reported that, “the move to shut off Libya’s main source of revenue comes in response to the Tripoli-based Presidency Council sacking Central Bank of Libya (CBL) chief Sadiq al-Kabir, prompting rival armed factions to mobilize. Prime Minister Abdulhamid al-Dbeibah, installed through a U.N.-backed process in 2021 and head of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity, said this week that oilfields should not be allowed to be shut “under flimsy pretexts”.
On Tuesday, U.S. Africa Command General Michael Langley and Chargé d’Affaires Jeremy Berndt met Khalifa Haftar, the head of a force called the Libyan National Army that controls the country’s east and south.
Strong demand and the upcoming winter seem to turn the crack spreads around after its recent plummet. Refiners continue to refine oil at a breakneck pace and there’s an assumption that the crack spreads are still fat enough to keep the refiners occupied.
All of these stories should have oil testing the upper end of its trading range soon. We still believe with the supply situation tightening dramatically because oil supplies have fallen seven out of the last eight weeks, that we could see a major upside breakout in the very near future and while we may fail again in the $80.00 handle be prepared for an even higher move if we don’t see a quick resolution to the Libyan political oil crisis.
Natural gas prices have pulled back as the shoulders season approaches. As we get into the heart of the hurricane season the market is looking at the Atlantic and the potential to add a couple of storms that may or may not turn out to be an issue next week.
Yesterday the Energy Information Administration said that w working gas in storage was 3,334 Bcf as of Friday, August 23, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 35 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 228 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 361 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,973 Bcf. At 3,334 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
With the Atlantic heating up, oil trades need to download the Fox Weather ap to see how things develop.
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Natural Gas Breaks 20-Day MA, Eyes Stronger Resistance Ahead
By: Bruce Powers | August 29, 2024
• Natural gas continues to rise, closing above the 20-Day MA, and targets higher resistance zones, but faces challenges within an expanding triangle pattern.
Natural gas advanced slightly above Wednesday’s high on Thursday, reaching a high of 2.15. It generated a higher daily high and higher low and continues to trade near the highs of the day at the time of this writing. Today is set to end with natural gas closing above the 20-Day MA for the first time in six days. By recapturing the 20-Day line natural gas is showing strength and a recovery from this week’s low, and a slightly new trend low of 1.875.
Resistance Zone from 2.24 to 2.30
There are several initial upside targets for the bounce defined by a top price of 2.30 and starting with the 50-Day MA at 2.24. Within the price range is the 200-Day MA at 2.28 and the interim swing high of 2.27 from July 22. Be aware that as of this week’s low natural gas is forming an expanding triangle pattern.
The two boundary lines of the pattern are purple on the chart and point away from each other. This means that a breakout above the 2.30 swing high may see difficulty in following-through if natural gas subsequently finds resistance a little higher around the rising top line of the triangle.
Daily Close Above 200-Day Line Should Complete Bottom
Nonetheless, a daily close above the 200-Day line should put natural gas in a bullish position to approach higher potential targets, the first being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.37. If that level can be surpassed the 50% retracement zone at 2.52 becomes the next higher target beginning with the interim swing low of 2.48 from May.
Trading Inside Large Symmetrical Triangle Pattern
Natural gas has been forming a large symmetrical triangle pattern since the April bottom. If it continues to strengthen, an eventual test of resistance at the top line of the triangle is likely. The 78.6% retracement at 2.89 can be used as a proxy for now. However, a little lower and above the 50% retracement is another potential resistance zone at 2.67 as that price would complete the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Be aware that since natural gas is trading inside a consolidation pattern in the form of an expanding triangle, it is subject choppy trading until a decisive breakout of the pattern occurs.
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EIA Natural Gas Storage Build Of +35 Bcf Misses Analyst Estimates
By: Vladimir Zernov | August 29, 2024
Key Points:
• Working gas in storage increased by 35 Bcf from the previous week.
• At current levels, stocks are 361 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of the year.
• Natural gas received support in the $2.00 - $2.05 range.
On August 29, 2024, EIA released its Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report. The report indicated that working gas in storage increased by 35 Bcf from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of +38 Bcf. In the previous week, the working gas in storage has also grown by 35 Bcf.
At current levels, stocks are 228 Bcf higher than last year and 361 Bcf above the five-year average for this time of the year.
Natural gas prices continued to rebound from session lows as traders reacted to the EIA report. EIA natural gas storage build missed analyst estimates of +38 Bcf, which may provide some support to natural gas markets.
The current demand for natural gas is high. Weather forecasts indicate that demand should be high during the weekend. However, demand is expected to decline next week, which may put pressure on prices.
From a big picture point of view, oversupply remains a key problem for natural gas markets. The market needs significant positive catalysts to gain sustainable upside momentum.
Technically, natural gas settled above the nearest support at $2.00 – $2.05. This support has already been tested several times and proved its strength. In case natural gas manages to settle above the $2.10 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the $2.25 – $2.30 range.
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China Continues to Weigh. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | August 29, 2024
Once again very tight oil supply and very good demand is being overshadowed by China oil demand concerns. The latest worry is coming from UBS that is predicting that China’s GDP will miss its 5% target and grow at only 4.6% this year which was lowered from earlier forecast of 4.9% for 2025. Yet here at home the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed petroleum draws across the board with gasoline inventories continuing to plummet at a breakneck pace. US gasoline demand is near a record high for this time of year hitting 9.307 million barrels a day as overall petroleum demand surged to 21.592 million barrels a day as we head into what is supposed to be a record-breaking Labor Day Holiday travel weekend.
Gas price going into Labor Day is at a three-year low that could see travel shatter some records. By air, the TSA is predicting that 17 million people will go through airport security, the busiest on record for the travel period. It is a fact that gas prices are down even as supply is less than a year ago and demand is higher. Part of that is slowing industrial usage in China and weaker demand for diesel.
The EIA put total demand at 20.6 million barrels a day, down by 2.9% from the same period last year. Gasoline demand averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 1.1% from a year ago. Distillate demand, because of weak global demand, was down 3.6% while jet fuel demand was up 2.6% from a year ago.
Yet while gas prices are down supplies are getting tighter. John Kemp at Reuters reported that U.S. gasoline inventories have depleted much faster than normal since the middle of July. He says that gasoline inventories fell by 15 million barrels between July 12 and August 23, the largest seasonal draw since 2008. That is compared with a prior ten-year average of just -5 million barrels. So, enjoy the low gas prices because they may not last.
In fact, it’s probably time to revisit Exxon and their warning about a looming oil shortage. Exxon Mobil said that, “Our Outlook reflects oil production naturally declining at a rate of about 15% per year. That’s nearly double the IEA’s prior estimates of about 8%. This increase is the result of the world’s shifting energy mix toward “unconventional” sources of oil and natural gas. They warn that, “These are mostly shale and dense rock formations where oil and gas production typically decline faster. To put it in concrete terms: With no new investment, global oil supplies would fall by more than 15 million barrels per day in the first year alone. That means at that rate, by 2030, oil supplies would fall from 100 million barrels per day to less than 30 million – that’s 70 million barrels short of what’s needed to meet demand every day.
The Democrat presidential nominee was for total electrification of the US car fleet before she was against it, well at least we think she is and should maybe probably read the Exxon report. They say, “If every new car sold in the world in 2035 were electric, oil demand in 2050 would still be 85 million barrels per day. That’s the same as it was in 2010.”
Instead of the short-sighted assault on fossil fuels that has led to higher prices and global instability Exxon Mobil is calling for governments, companies, universities, and others to work together to achieve a transition that increases the supply of energy for everyone while steadily and thoughtfully reducing emissions. Given the need to do more and do it faster at a lower cost, progress will need to occur in parallel, supported by durable policies that are focused on: • More transparency to give the market more lead time to adapt to changes • Outcomes to keep the market focused on the best technologies to reduce the most emissions at the lowest price. Collaboration is key to finding the right application of technology to lower emissions in specific industries.
That’s why we believe governments should create a level field in which all technologies can compete without fear or favor so that the best choices emerge. Where no market exists and initial costs are high, incentives make sense to get things started. Butgovernment incentives cannot – and should not – be in place forever. To get to net zero, markets must be developed to encourage reduced emissions. “To get serious, three things are needed: supportive public policy, significant technology advancements, and a smooth transition from government subsidies to market-based mechanisms.”
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Natural Gas Tests 20-Day MA Amid Potential Bullish Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | August 28, 2024
• Natural gas shows signs of recovery but must clear 2.30 resistance to confirm a bullish reversal and target higher retracement levels.
Natural gas turned higher on Wednesday as it rallied to a high of 2.14 as it attempted to recapture the 20-Day MA (purple), currently at 2.10. The 20-Day line was exceeded intraday but natural gas is currently trading at or a little below that line, at the time of this writing. A daily close today above the 20-Day MA will be a slightly stronger indication than a close below the line. Certainly, resistance may continue to be seen around the 20-Day line leading to a pullback.
Trend Resistance Zone from 2.25 to 2.30
Before natural gas can advance to test higher areas of potential resistance it first needs to first breakout above a potentially formidable price zone from around 2.25 to 2.30. It includes the recent swing high of 2.30 and an earlier interim swing high of 2.27. The price zone begins with the 50-Day MA (orange) at 2.25 and is joined by the 200-Day MA (blue) at 2.28. Whether upward momentum can continue in the near-term or the price of natural gas consolidates further with the recent price range.
Expanding Triangle Developing
As of this week’s new trend low, there is potential expanding triangle (purple) taking shape. It is a consolidation pattern where the price range expands rather than contracts, such as in a symmetrical triangle. As it expands false breakouts may be experienced either at the bottom or top of the pattern. Currently, the price range is from yesterday’s low of 1.875 to the 2.30 prior swing high.
Correction May be Complete
This week’s low of 1.875 had natural gas down by 40.65% from the June swing high of 3.16. That is a healthy correction that stalled around the 78.6% retracement zone (1.92). However, it exceeds all but one of the bearish corrections that have occurred since February 2023. The largest was a decline of 55.0% from the January swing highs. Also, notice that there is a bullish divergence with the relative strength index (RSI) momentum oscillator, which is a bullish indication.
If natural gas can get above the 2.30 swing high and stay above it, it will have a chance to eventually test resistance around the top trendline. Other interim potential targets are lower starting with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.37, and the 50% retracement of 2.52.
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Crude Inventories Drop By 0.8 Million Barrels
By: Vladimir Zernov | August 28, 2024
Key Points:
• Gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels.
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 377.2 million barrels to 377.9 million barrels.
• WTI oil climbed back above $74.50 as traders reacted to the report.
On August 28, 2024, EIA released its Weekly Petroleum Status Report. The report indicated that crude inventories declined by 0.8 million barrels from the previous week, compared to analyst consensus of -3 million barrels. At current levels, crude inventories are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of the year.
Total motor gasoline inventories declined by 2.2 million barrels, while analysts expected that they would drop by 1.5 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels from the previous week.
U.S. crude oil imports declined by 92,000 bpd, averaging 6.6 million bpd. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million bpd.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve increased from 377.2 million barrels to 377.9 million barrels as U.S. continued to buy oil for reserves.
Domestic oil production decreased from 13.4 million bpd to 13.3 million bpd. From a big picture point of view, it looks that domestic producers are not ready to push production towards 13.5 million bpd at current oil price levels.
WTI oil moved away from session lows as traders reacted to the EIA report. Currently, WTI oil is trying to settle above the $74.70 level. Traders are worried about demand in China, but falling crude and gasoline inventories may provide some support to the market.
Brent oil climbed back above the $78.50 level after the release of the EIA data.
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Tight Places. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | August 28, 2024
Oil inventories continue to tighten even as crack spreads crack under seasonal pressure and hopes that Libyan oil production won’t be down for too long. Sadly, summer and the summer driving season, is coming to an end.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a larger than expected 3.4-million-barrel drop in crude supply, coupled with a 1.86-million-barrel drop in gasoline supply and a 1.4-million-barrel drop in distillate.
Now one might think that the market would be concerned about the rapid tightening of oil supply, but the trade keeps pushing the short side betting that supplies will be adequate even if the line between supply and demand is razor thin and could flip into a major deficit if Libya’s oil supply stays off-line. Bloomberg reports that Libya’s oil output has almost halved this week as fields reduce operations amid a stalemate over who controls the country’s central bank. Output has fallen at least 400,000 barrels a day since eastern authorities ordered a shutdown of all production, according to people with knowledge of the situation. Cuts include at Sarir, operated by Arabian Gulf Oil Co., which was producing 145,000 barrels a day and has now shut down. Oil supplying the Ras Lanuf terminal has also dropped by at least 130,000 barrels a day.
The move to freeze all output and exports announced Monday by the eastern Libyan authorities came in response to a decision by the internationally recognized government in the west to replace central bank Governor Sadiq Al-Kabir according to Bloomberg.
While the democrat nominee for president seems to be for price controls and subsides, Iran’s president seems to be against it. Reuters reported that President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a video published on Tuesday that fuel subsidies made no sense in Iran, a major oil producer with a struggling economy that has faced protests in the past over price hikes. “There is no rationality in the fact that we buy gasoline with free market dollar prices, and we sell it with a subsidized price,” Pezeshkian, elected in July, said in a video broadcast by state media. Maybe Kamala will adopt that policy the same way she seems to be adopting President Trumps policies.
It also being reported that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stated on Tuesday that there is no harm in engaging with its enemy, referring to the United States and issues related to Iran’s nuclear program. Obviously, he wants to try to cut a deal just in case President Donald Trump returns with his maximum pressure campaign.
And while the market goes up and down, the reality is it seems like crude is stuck in a trading range with 70 on the low end and the 80 on the high end. Product crack spread seems to suggest plummeting demand so it will be very important to keep an eye on the demand numbers when we get today’s Energy Information Administration report at 9:30a.
Meanwhile Reuters is reporting that, “A Ukraine drone attack sparked a fire at an oil depot in the Kamensky district of Russia’s southern region of Rostov, its governor said on Wednesday, confirming media reports that several tanks were on fire.”
Gas markets are already looking ahead to winter. The heat wave is going to give into shoulder season. In Europe there’s still concerns about tight supplies if we get a cold winter one of the key things to remember for natural gas in Europe is that we haven’t had a real challenging winter and that has kept the market somewhat well supplied. Yet as the tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue, the possibility of a fuel shortage in Russia is still real. Of course the market price does not care until it happens.
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Natural Gas Extends Losses, Testing Critical Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | August 27, 2024
• Despite a six-day decline to $1.875, natural gas shows potential for a bullish reversal if it surpasses $1.97, with resistance at $2.02 and $2.09.
The bears remained in control of the price of natural gas on Tuesday as it continued a bearish correction and fell to a new trend low of 1.875. It also dropped below a key trendline support indicator. In early-August natural gas found support at a swing low of 1.88. That low led to a bullish breakout of a falling wedge pattern. However, the target for the wedge is the beginning of the pattern and it was reached on August 14 at 2.27. Natural gas is on track to close weak on Tuesday, in the lower half of the day’s range. A daily close below 2.27 will show greater weakness than a daily close above that price level.
Down for Six Straight Days
Nevertheless, natural gas has been falling for six straight days. It may run out of bearish momentum and yet find support that leads to a bullish reversal around the lows. There are no signs of that yet, but a rally above today’s high of 1.97 may signal a bottom and could lead to a test of higher price levels. Following a rally above today’s high natural gas will be heading towards this week’s high of 2.02, followed by the 20-Day MA at 2.09.
Break Below 1.875 Support Targets Lower Prices
On the downside, a decisive decline below today’s low of 1.875 signals a continuation of the bear trend. Whether the downside momentum stalls or accelerates at that point remains to be seen. Supportive of a bearish continuation are the moving averages. Notice that the orange 50-Day MA broke below the blue 200-Day MA yesterday, a sign that the decline is weakening.
The first area to watch for support would then be around a prior interim swing high at 1.85 from April 23. A little lower is the 88.6% Fibonacci retracement of the larger uptrend that began from the April swing low at 1.58. Depending on when it is reached the 88.6% level will likely be nearby potential support represented by the lower uptrend line.
Despite today’s bearish behavior, natural gas is on track to close above the prior swing low of 1.88. That may provide little comfort to the bulls, but it does provide a small indication that buyers may be returning.
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Crude Oil Price Forecast: Breakout Above 200-Day MA Likely
By: Bruce Powers | August 27, 2024
• Crude oil consolidates between key moving averages, with potential for a bullish breakout targeting $81.96, though risks of a deeper pullback remain.
Following two sharp rallies in the past two days, crude oil consolidates and trades inside day on Tuesday. It has been trading roughly between resistance around the 200-Day MA (blue) and support near the 20-Day MA (purple). At the time of this writing, the high of the day was 78.58 and the low 76.46. Nevertheless, crude is primed to breakout above the 200-Day line and trendline with a rally above Monday’s high of 78.73.
Double Bottom Test of Support
Crude oil looks to have completed a second bottom with last week’s swing low of 72.71. Notice that it generated a higher swing low relative to the prior low at 72.24 in early-August. Each low also successfully tested support around the lower rising trendline that makes up the boundary of a large symmetrical triangle formation. Given the two bullish reversals from the bottom triangle line it is now likely that crude rises to test resistance of the triangle, which would be at the top boundary line. This doesn’t mean it will be reached, just that the chance it will has improved.
Upper Trendline Now a Target
There is a rising ABCD pattern shown on the chart in purple with an initial target of 81.96. That is where the rising CD leg of the pattern matches the price appreciation seen in the first AB leg up. Notice that the target is also around the top downtrend line. The prior advance from the early-August low retraced a little over 61.8% before hitting resistance at 80.33 (B) and falling.
That high was also around the 50-Day MA (orange), now at 79.35. Therefore, a rally above this week’s high of 78.73 is a bull breakout of both a trendline and the 200-Day MA. Resistance may first be encountered around the 50-Day MA and a breakout above that line will provide an additional sign of strength, improving the chance for crude to head towards the August swing high.
Support at 76.17 Needs to Hold
Nonetheless, the bearish correction may not be complete and a deeper pullback below today’s low of 76.46 may yet occur. The 20-Day MA is at 76.49 and Monday’s low was 76.17. Therefore, a drop below 76.17 will signal a bearish continuation of today’s weakness.
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Shock Therapy. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | August 27, 2024
Oil prices seemed shocked that a real oil supply disruption could raise prices while Exxon Mobil is warning of a coming oil shock unless the world ups its investments in fossil fuels. Risk of oil shortages and risks of war rising and falling are dominating the oil trade.
The Libyan supply disruption was a major factor in yesterday’s oil surge. The market realized that light crude is harder to come by. The politically based shutdown of the Libyan oil fields could create an oil price shock if it is extended for weeks. Yesterday Libya’s eastern or parallel government said it would shut down all oil production and exports nationwide, over the status of central bank’s Gov. Siddiq al-Kabir.
Reuters reported that the Benghazi government is not internationally recognized but controls most of Libya’s oilfields. The Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation, which controls oil resources, and the internationally recognized Tripoli government, have not yet confirmed the news. Because this dispute is based on politics, there is a sense by the market it could be resolved. If it is not, then get ready for a price shock.
Exxon Mobil is warning of a “catastrophic” risk of failing to invest in new oil projects. AFP reported that Exxon says that global oil demand is unlikely to fall by 2050 despite progress on renewable energy, the US oil and gas giant ExxonMobil said Monday, pointing to rising population and demand for energy worldwide. ExxonMobil said it, “sees a plateau in oil demand beyond 2030, remaining above 100 million barrels per day through 2050.” This would be roughly in line with oil demand last year of 102.2 million barrels per day, according to the International Energy Agency. The figure is significantly higher than projections from its competitor BP, which predicted earlier this year that oil demand would decrease to around 75 million barrels per day by 2050 on its current trajectory.
In its report, ExxonMobil estimated that around four billion people around the world do not currently have access to the energy they need. The company said that the global population expected to rise from eight billion to almost 10 billion by 2050, meeting the world’s basic energy needs “will drive a projected 15% increase in total energy use worldwide between now and 2050,” the company said. “Renewables will play an important role,” it added. “So will oil and natural gas.”
ExxonMobil estimates that oil and natural gas will still make up more than half of the world’s energy mix by 2050, even as the proliferation of electric vehicles reduces the demand for gasoline at the pump. “The large majority of the world’s oil is and will be used for industrial processes, such as manufacturing and chemical production, along with heavy-duty transportation like shipping, trucking, and aviation,” the company said.
Despite this, ExxonMobil still expects global carbon emissions to decline by around 25 percent by the middle of the century, thanks to greater energy efficiency, more renewables, and the introduction of new “lower-emission technologies” like carbon capture and storage.
While oil prices soar, crack spreads are still weak hitting the lowest level since February 2021. That is a warning sign but it seems out of whack on what we are seeing on the supply side. I expect to see a drawdown in crude supplies of 3 million barrels. Gasoline supplies in distillate supplies should also fall by three million barrels, respectively. Refinery runs should remain steady. Despite the weak crack spread, gasoline demand was close to a record last week. Diesel demand was weaker than normal. If the demand numbers continue to hold up, the crack spread should recover.
War threats are also up and down. Reuters reported that Russia launched several waves of missile and drone attacks targeting scores of Ukrainian regions and killing at least four people, Ukraine’s military said. This came a day after Moscow’s biggest air attack of the war on its neighbor.
They also reported that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Air Force General C.Q. Brown, says the near-term risk of a broader war in the Middle East has eased off slightly after Israel and Hezbollah exchanged cross-border fire without further escalation. Let’s hope and pray.
Natural gas would see an injection of 33 BCF. The record heat index numbers including portions of the Midwest are not enough to keep the market strong because we’re headed quickly into shoulder season. Still we expect to see record demand and we should be very thankful that some of the Biden administration’s rules on power plants haven’t gone through yet because if it did, there would be people collapsing from heat stroke today.
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Natural Gas Reaches Key Support, Eyes Reversal
By: Bruce Powers | August 26, 2024
• Natural gas hit new lows, breaking key Fibonacci levels, with support possibly forming. A rally above 2.02 could signal a potential bullish reversal.
Lower prices were on the agenda for natural gas on Monday as it fell to a new retracement low of 1.94 before finding intraday support. Monday’s decline exceeded the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.97 and completed a descending ABCD pattern that is extended by the 161.8% golden ratio at 1.95. Those two price targets were mentioned previously, and they represent a maximum potential retracement before the chance of a bearish continuation to challenge support around recent lows of 1.88 increases.
Rising Trendlines Confirms Support Zone
Notice that a rising trendline starting from the April swing low identifies potential support around today’s low. Combined with the 161.8% ABCD target, natural gas has reached a price level where support may be strong enough to turn the price of natural gas back up. But first let’s look at the potential for further downside. A decline below today’s low of 1.94 will signal the possibility for a deeper bearish retracement.
The 88.6% retracement at 1.93 identifies the next lower target. If that price level fails to lead to a bullish reversal, the early-August swing low around 1.88 becomes a target and the potential for a bearish continuation below that price level increases. Also, notice that the orange 50-Day MA is beginning to dip below the blue 200-Day MA. This is a sign of weakening and the significance will depend on the follow-through to the downside or whether a bullish reversal takes command.
Bullish Reversal Above 2.02
On the upside, a potential one-day bullish reversal will be triggered on a rally above today’s high of 2.02. If triggered to the upside natural gas would next be heading towards potentially minor resistance around last Thursday’s low of 2.03, followed by the 20-Day MA at 2.105. The 20-Day line is key relative to the current chart pattern for natural gas. It maintained support for only a limited time recently following a rise back above the line on August 8. This week’s decline is a failure of support at the 20-Day line, and it follows months since June 26 when natural gas dropped back below the 20-Day MA.
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Crude Oil Continues to Rally
By: Christopher Lewis | August 26, 2024
• The crude oil market rallied quite nicely in the early hours of Monday, as the market is very strong with several different reasons for it to go higher. War threats, Libyan slowdowns, and a host of other issues continue to plague the market at the moment.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis
The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has broken above the $76.50 level, and now looks as it might try to get to the $78,50 cents level. Libya holding production has put a charge into the market, but there’s also a lot of concern out there about the Middle East flaring up into further conflict, and that, of course, is a very real possibility.
With that being said, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that will continue to be very noisy, but I think it continues to be more or less a buy on the dip type of scenario. The $75 level underneath should offer a certain amount of support, and I do think that it is probably only a matter of time before we see this market just simply hang about and try to build up enough inertia to break out of the larger consolidation barrier.
Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis
Brent markets look very much the same, although they are closer to threatening their resistance at the $81.50 level. If we can break that, then the market could very well pick up another $6 based on the measured move, but we’ll have to wait and see. That would be somewhere around $87.50. I do think that each pullback ends up being a buying opportunity, because quite frankly, when you look at a long-term chart, we had tested pretty significant support, so oil just got too cheap.
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Pivot Point. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | August 26, 2024
The Fed Pivots while Israel attacks, and Libya shuts down oil production. The pieces are falling into place for a monster oil rally that could have a significant impact on the US Presidential Campaign.
Oil prices stated their move Friday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell admitted it was time to change course and embark on a rate cutting campaign, yet geopolitical risk factors also exploded as Israel on Sunday, conducted what they called a preemptive strike over southern Lebanon to thwart an attack from the Lebanese Islamic group Hezbollah
The Wall Street Journal reported that after a heavy exchange of fire early Sunday between Israel and Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah, the regional military powers signaled a desire to avoid a spiral that could lead to a wider Mideast conflict. Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets and drones at Israel as around 100 Israeli warplanes struck targets in Lebanon in a move Israel said was intended to pre-empt a Hezbollah attack. The exchange was a significant show of force but initially appeared to result in few casualties and limited damage.
Reuters reported that “Iran does not seek to increase Middle East tensions, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi told his Italian counterpart Antonio Tajani, adding that its response to the killing of the Hamas chief in Tehran would be “definite and calculated”.
According to Reuters, no agreement was reached during the Gaza ceasefire talks on Sunday. The meeting, held in Cairo, saw neither Hamas nor Israel agreeing to the proposed compromises. Sunday’s strikes exemplify the failure of ceasefire negotiations and will likely lead to broader regional conflicts.
In recent weeks oil prices have downplayed geopolitical risks because there has been no major disruption of supply. That could change.
Bloomberg News is reporting that “Libya’s eastern government said it will shut down all oil production and exports, after its Tripoli-based rival moved to replace the leadership of the central bank.
The “force majeure” applies to all fields, terminals and oil facilities, the eastern authorities said Monday in a statement on Facebook. Brent crude prices jumped as much as 2.2% to above $80 a barrel.
A row over who leads the central bank, the manager of billions of dollars of energy revenue, has been brewing for over a week now, deepening political divisions and threatening a UN-brokered peace deal. The internationally acknowledged government in the country’s west has been seeking to replace the governor Sadiq Al-Kabir, who has refused to step down. A government delegation entered the regulator’s offices today to take over, according to local media. The country produced a total of about 1.15 million barrels a day of oil last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Since then, the biggest oil field called Sharara, which was pumping nearly 270,000 barrels daily, has halted. The east is home to the Sirte basin where most of Libya’s oil reserves and four of the country’s oil export terminals are located.”
So the oil market cannot any longer ignore these risks because it is taking away real barrels of oil. Now the Fed must ignore higher oil because they were lied to about the labor markets and has fallen behind the curve. With a weak jobs market and higher oil it will be a chore to keep the landing soft.
Look to put on hedges and stayed hedged as the supply squeeze is developing.
Nat gas pulling back as we face the last heat wave of the summer. EBW Analytics reports that “The NYMEX front-month contract initially added 15.5¢/MMBtu (+7%) early last week to climb as high as $2.278 before a bearish EIA storage surprise sent prices plummeting lower to retest support at the $2.00/MMBtu psychological level intraday Friday. Natural gas may still see moderate upside into the 30-45 day window as extended supply shut-ins alleviate storage containment fears-opening the door to an eventual seasonal rally higher. Near-term, however, bearish risks are predominant into September expiry.
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WTI Crude Oil CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | August 24, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of August 20, 2024.
WTI Crude Oil: Currently net long 220.1k, down 19.5k.
Range traders are having a field day. For months, West Texas Intermediate crude has been rangebound between $71-$72 and $81-$82. It just bounced off the bottom of that range.
Most recently, on the 5th this month, WTI bottomed at $71.67 intraday. A week later – on the 12th – it hit $80.16 and headed lower. This Wednesday, the crude ticked $71.46 intraday, followed by Thursday’s $71.58, which was bought, closing the session up 1.5 percent to $73.01. Come Friday, it rallied another 2.5 percent to $74.83/barrel.
Incidentally, a rising trendline from May last year when WTI bottomed at $63.57 was tested this week and remains intact. Above, trendline resistance from last September lies around $82, which approximates the top of the range discussed earlier.
The path of least resistance is up.
In the meantime, US crude production in the week to August 16th increased 100,000 barrels per day week-over-week to match record output of 14.4 million b/d set two weeks ago. Crude imports increased 367,000 b/d to 6.7 mb/d. Stocks of crude, gasoline, and distillates all declined – down respectively 4.6 million barrels, 1.6 million barrels and 3.3 million barrels to 426 million barrels, 220.6 million barrels and 122.8 million barrels. Refinery utilization rose eight-tenths of a percentage point to 92.3 percent.
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NY Crude Oil Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | August 24, 2024
The NY Crude Oil Futures has been in an uptrend for the past 2 days closing above the previous session's high quite significantly by 1.78%. Currently, the market is trading in a neutral position on our indicators but it is trading strongly higher up some 4.87% from the previous session low. Our projected target for closing resistance for the next session stands at 7687, we need to close above that target to imply a further advance. Failure to even exceed this intraday warns that the upward momentum is starting to decline. Nevertheless, this session closed below our ideal projection for closing resistance warning that the market which stood at 7558 may have reached a high. However, keep in mind that any decline from here must be more than just 2 to 3 sessions We see strategic overhead resistance standing at 7486 which means we have not broken out in a runaway market to the upside. A lower opening below 7483 will warn that we may have aa temporary high for this moment.
Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during June. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply that a trend is developing.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Crude Oil Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2020 and 2009 and 2001 and 1998 and 1994. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2022 and 2018 and 2011 and 2000.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical broader tone of the NY Crude Oil Futures has been a bearish consolidation following the high established back in 2008. Since then, this market has created 2 reaction highs which have been unable to break this overall protracted bearish consolidating trend. Still, the major low was made in 2023 and the market has bounced back for the last year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2023.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Nevertheless, it closed last year on the weak side down from 2022. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Crude Oil Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 7570 and support forming below at 7438. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of July 1st at 8452, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 10 weeks reaching a high during the week of August 12th at 7452. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a very dramatic move of 10.85% in a stark panic type decline.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of August 12th reaching 8016 failed to exceed the previous high of 8452 made back during the week of July 1st. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 7297. Resistance is to be found starting at 8081. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 2 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2021 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has declined in price with the last cyclical low formed on 2023 warning that this market remains weak at this time on a correlation perspective declining in both price and Momentum.
Looking at the longer-term monthly level, we did see that the market made a high in April at 8767. After a four month rally from the previous low of 8070, it made last high in April. Since this last high, the market has corrected for four months. However, this market has held important support last month. So far here in August, this market has held above last month's low of 7459 reaching 7459.
Some caution is necessary since the last high 8767 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during April. That high was still lower than the previous high established at 9503 back during September 2023. Critical support still underlies this market at 6760 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, at this time, the market is still weak trading beneath last month's low.
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Natural Gas Key Levels to Watch as Bear Trend Deepens
By: Bruce Powers | August 23, 2024
• Natural gas continues its bearish slide, dropping to 2.00, signaling potential for further declines if key resistance levels aren't recaptured.
Natural gas continued its bearish correction on Friday with a drop to a new retracement low of 2.00 before finding support. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.04 was exceeded to the downside and the 127.2% extended target for a falling ABCD pattern completed at 2.02. Neither managed to sustain support leaving open lower price levels.
At the time of this writing natural gas is on track to close weak, in the lower third of the day’s trading range. If the close today is similar, sellers will have dominated trading into the close and may do so again heading into next week.
Finishing Week in Bearish Position
Today’s bearish behavior in the price of natural gas improves the chance that it may be heading to lower price levels before the retracement is complete. In addition, on the weekly time frame a bearish weekly reversal triggered this week, and the week is set to end with a bearish red candlestick pattern and a close near the lows for the week. This will set up a bearish signal below this week’s low. The next lower price target is at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.97. A little lower is the 161.8% extended target for a small declining ABCD pattern at 1.95.
Rally Above Today’s High Will Show Strength
Nonetheless, natural gas found support today at 2.00 and it could continue to hold above that price level leading to a bullish reversal. A rally above today’s high of 2.07 would be a sign of strength with natural gas first heading towards the 20-Day MA, now at 2.11. If the 20-Day line can be recaptured natural gas will have a chance to proceed higher.
Resistance at Moving Averages
The next higher key resistance zone that would need to be recaptured is the recent swing high and last week’s high of 2.30. However, there are two moving averages nearby that need to be considered as well. The 200-Day MA is also at 2.30 and the 50-Day MA is at 2.305. Therefore, recapturing the 2.30 high and moving averages will put natural gas in a position to proceed higher. Until then, they may continue to identify an area of potential resistance.
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Jerome’s Big Adventure. The Energy Report
By: Phil Flynn | August 23, 2024
The petroleum markets that have crashed despite data showing robust demand and tight supply should be a flashing caution light for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as he goes off on a big adventure to a beautiful valley between the Gros Venter and Teton mountain ranges in the beautiful state of Wyoming to little place known as Jackson Hole. The name of the place is appropriate because the oil market is saying the economy could be headed into a big Jackson Hole if screws his next move up. “Is there something you could share with the rest of us, Amazing Jerome?”
We can go over the current state of US demand where we see some warning signs that while the consumers are holding up the manufacturing and trucking sectors are slowing.
Distillate demand numbers averaged 3.6 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, down by 5.0% from a year ago and that is raising some red flags.
Yet based on total demand we are still averaging an impressive 20.4 million barrels of oil per day and gasoline demand came in at a near record 9.913 million barrels last week which is amazing considering the Biden Administration speding billions on electric car subsides does not seem to be making a dent in gasoline demand.
Maybe because they never asked the consumer whether they wanted them. Sort of like the Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, the voters never said they wanted her they just shoved her down your throat like they did electric cars.
Is it any surprise that Ford announced that it was canceling its electric three-row SUV and delaying the launch of a new electric pickup truck until 2027. Now Ford says it won’t release any new electric vehicles until it can ensure profitability on the models within the first year of launch.
They may release hybrid, but I am not sure that is going to be enough to appease the Biden bunch that believes in energy platitudes but have no real plan for implementation other than to throw your money up in the air and hope that something sticks.
Yet the oil trade and OPEC know that the crash in oil prices has little to do with supply or demand but the financialization of that barrel of oil.
Oil sold off because the Bureau of Labor Statistics lied to us.
Oil sold off because they know they cannot trust the government.
Yet oil also was caught up in the unwinding of the Yen carry trade because oil, like gold, is like real money.’
Jeff Currie, the famed former Goldman Sachs energy analyst said that oil was the unwinding of the ‘oil carry trade.”‘
He explained that traders would borrow paper/physical barrels, and convert into USD, and invest in US treasuries.
He said that that move “squares a record weak financial oil market against a tight fundamental oil market, as the market is liquidating both physical and financial barrels for US dollars.”
He said that a “strong USD and attractive risk-free rate of 5.5% = overall weak financial demand for commodities. He warns that a “Potential for sharp unwind like what happened with Japanese Yen a few weeks ago with Fed cut in September/turn in rate cycle.
Jeff Curries also told Barrons that it might be time to go green again.
He said that ” .lean energy is one of the most rate-sensitive sectors in the global economy.
The peak in clean energy occurred when rates were at 0%. Since rates have moved up, the pendulum has swung back toward traditional energy.
If you think the Fed is going to start cutting rates, it will swing back toward clean energy again, so you’d want to be a buyer of clean energy here. The clean energy sector looks attractive today.
So that brings us back full circle back to Jerome Powel “That’s my name. Don’t wear it out.” big adventure and his speech at 10 am eastern time.
We know that Jerome Powell will signal that we will cut rates in September, but the key is whether they’re going to do a quarter or 50 basis points.
The other key is if he’s going to signal how aggressive he will be in cutting rates in the future.
We may see some more shakedown as the Bank of Japan continues to suggest that their rates are going up as they unwind from their policies of negative interest rates that hobbled their economies for a generation.
In the meantime, the selloff in products is bringing down gasoline prices even in the Midwest. Wavering EPA regulations seem to suggest that lower gas price becomes a political party so you can ignore the eventual threat of climate change for awhile
The EIA said that A series of refinery outages in Chicago and Ohio have generally increased Midwest prices for petroleum products relative to the U.S. average, particularly gasoline. The outages reflect an unusual decline in refining activity near the end of the high-demand summer season and have drawn down regional inventories.
On July 15, ExxonMobil’s Joliet refinery outside of Chicago, with 251,800 barrels per day (b/d) of capacity, was shut down on an emergency basis in response to a power outage brought on by severe weather conditions. The shutdown took the refinery offline for several weeks before it could safely resume operations.
Operators reported they had begun bringing the facility back online as of August 8, and later reports have since indicated that the Joliet facility has resumed normal operations.
In Ohio, operators also reported temporary unit shutdowns at Cenovus’s 183,000-b/d Lima and 150,800-b/d Toledo refineries. Since the week ending July 12, just before the Joliet outage, to August 9, Midwest refinery utilization decreased 11 percentage points to 86% because of the outages, reducing refinery production of gasoline, diesel, and other refined petroleum products. As these refineries reentered service, Midwest refinery utilization increased more than 10 percentage points the following week, to 97% as of August 16.
So, after it’s all said and done if the Fed decides are gonna cut rates more than likely oil is hit the lower end of its trading range.
The expectations are being built into the market of a slowdown in the economy are probably overstated somewhat because the diesel demand numbers were somewhat of influx.
There is no doubt the concerns about the global manufacturing sector slowdown are the number one negative factor on oil prices. Yet these worries come even as global oil demand is at an all-time high and daily oil production can’t keep up.
Geo-political risk factors are still high. The Houthi Rebels are still hitting tankers in the Red Sea and US bases are in high alert. A report overnight that Nato Airbase Geilenkirchen Germany was on high alert due ‘potential threat”. Is it just me our have we seen an uptick in terror threats around the word since Joe Biden was President?
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