Earnings Preview: Coach - Analyst Blog
01 Agosto 2011 - 12:05PM
Zacks
Coach Inc. (COH), the designer and marketer of
fine accessories and gifts, is scheduled to report its
fourth-quarter 2011 financial results on August 2, 2011. The
current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter is 65 cents a
share. For the quarter under review, revenue is $1,009 million,
according to the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Third-Quarter 2011, a Synopsis
Coach, the maker of handbags, wallets, shoes and other
accessories, posted better-than-expected third-quarter 2011 results
on April 26, on the back of healthy sales in North America and
China. However, the recent catastrophe in Japan dented the
company’s performance to some extent.
The quarterly earnings of 62 cents a share beat the Zacks
Consensus Estimate of 60 cents, and came ahead of 50 cents earned
in the prior-year quarter buoyed by strong top-line growth.
The New York-based Coach said that total net sales for the
quarter came in at $950.7 million, up 14.5% from the year-ago
quarter, and outpaced the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $947
million.
Fourth-Quarter 2011 Zacks
Consensus
Analysts considered by Zacks, expect Coach to post
fourth-quarter 2011 earnings of 65 cents a share. The current Zacks
Consensus Estimate reflects a growth of 1.6% from the prior-year
quarter earnings. The current Zacks Consensus Estimate for the
quarter ranges between 60 cents and 68 cents a share.
Zacks Agreement & Magnitude
Of the 20 analysts following the stock, 2 analysts revised the
estimates upwards in the last 30 days, and 2 analysts raised their
estimates in the last 7 days. Both the revisions did not have any
material impact on the Zacks Consensus Estimate.
Positive Earnings Surprise History
With respect to earnings surprises, Coach has topped the Zacks
Consensus Estimate over the last four quarters in the range of 3.1%
to 14.6%. The average remained at 8.8%.
This suggests that Coach has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate
by an average of 8.8% in the trailing four quarters. Given the past
performance we expect the company to outperform the Zacks Consensus
Estimate.
Coach Recommendation: Neutral
Coach’s sustained focus on store sales productivity,
merchandising, marketing and strategic pricing have helped it
remain afloat in a difficult consumer environment as well as drive
comparable-store sales. Management remains confident of sustaining
a double-digit growth momentum in both top and bottom lines, after
posting better-than-expected third-quarter 2011 results on the back
of healthy sales in North America and China.
The company’s long-term growth drivers include expansion of its
global distribution model and venture into under-penetrated
markets. Moreover, a healthy balance sheet with a significant cash
balance and a negligible debt load, positions it to drive future
growth.
We remain concerned about Coach’s operations in Japan, which was
recently hit by the earthquake and tsunami. The company highlighted
that the recent devastation in Japan hurt third-quarter 2011
results, and will further impact the fourth quarter
performance.
Currently, we have a long-term Neutral rating on the stock.
However, Coach, which competes with Polo Ralph Lauren
Corporation (RL), holds a Zacks #2 Rank that translates
into a short-term Buy rating.
COACH INC (COH): Free Stock Analysis Report
POLO RALPH LAUR (RL): Free Stock Analysis Report
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