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surfer44 6 horas hace

Gold vs. GDX: The Best Way to Play Gold Right Now

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surfer44 11 horas hace

Gold is a great insurance policy.

I play the ratio. So it just makes sense to buy silver.
I do love the small 1/10 oz gold bullion coins. That's my favorite.

It's all just insurance against my long term debt.

I'll get all my Dads one day as I'll pass mine to my kids if I never have to use it. My entire SS check goes to metals every month. If not, it would go to hookers and booze then waste the rest.

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trunkmonk 12 horas hace

Graddhy not only knows the metals industry, he knows how to make charts like few other. By the way, he is spot on, nailed it....accept its going to 33k not 15k, and the epicenter of wave 3 is happening this year.

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surfer44 12 horas hace

Yes indeedy. Poor Man's gold. What is amazing to me is that India, a poor country, they LOVE gold and silver.

And probably China too.

USA will catch up

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fink 13 horas hace

I'm still adding silver.
Not untill the ratio is under 80oz. Then I'll trade all my heavy shit for gold.
But how I love buying the yellow stuff.

End to the Ukraine war, and Fort Knox could cool gold off and see a rise in silver.

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DiscoverGold 15 horas hace

NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | March 1, 2025

NY Gold Futures closed today at 28485 and is trading up about 7.85% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Caution is required for this market is starting to suggest it may now decline on the MONTHLY level. Up to this moment in time, this market has been rising for 2 months going into March reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 28970 and support forming below at 27671. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 24th at 29740, which was up 15 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29740 to 28441. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29740 made 0 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 25890 and 29394. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29740. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 28580 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 27035 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.

Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 28022. Additional support is to be found at 27156. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 10 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 16 months since the low established back in October 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 25400 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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DiscoverGold 1 día hace

Gold Drops to $2,833, Confirming Bearish Reversal Signals
By: Bruce Powers | February 28, 2025

• A weekly breakdown below $2,853 signals further bearish pressure, with gold eyeing key support at $2,813, $2,769, and a potential monthly breakdown.

Gold continued its bearish retracement on Friday with a drop to a new low of $2,833. At the time of this the decline triggered another weekly breakdown below the three-week low of $2,853 and further confirmed the transition to a bearish retracement. If the week ends with gold below that weekly low, another bearish signal will be confirmed.

Nonetheless, gold will complete a reversal week with a close likely near the lows of the week and below last week’s low of $2,878, if not the three-week low. In summary, this week’s price action shows increasing selling pressure and a greater chance of testing lower support levels before the correction is complete.

Selling Pressure Intensifies

Although the next lower target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813 the decisiveness of the bears will likely lead to a test of lower price. The prior trend high of $2,790 is an obvious target but if selling pressure is retained that price level may be broken. Lower price levels are identified by at least two indicators as possible support zone.

The first is the 50-Day MA at $2,769, which has converged with the 50% retracement, also at $2,769. Since the next lower uptrend line is rising toward the 50% retracement zone, by the time gold approaches that potential support zone, the trendline may also need to be considered. This is assuming there is not a failure of the trendline to remain support.

Monthly Bearish Shooting Star for February

The longer time frame pattern is a concern given that the month of February ends today. Gold is set to complete the month with a potentially bearish shooting star candlestick pattern. However, it is not bearish until a breakdown triggers thereby confirming the pattern. Nonetheless, it shows the month ending in a relatively weak position relative to the month’s trading range.

The low for the month is $2,772, near where the 50-Day line is now. This will leave gold in a precarious position where a monthly breakdown could be triggered. Nonetheless, follow-through will be key. If the monthly bearish shooting start triggers to the downside, it opens the possibility of an eventual test of prior monthly resistance at $2,726 from December.

20-Day MA Marks Key Potential Resistance

Interim rallies can be watched for signs of resistance that may develop into bearish intraday reversal patterns. The 20-Day MA is an obvious line to be tested as resistance and it is now at $2,896. It can be combined with Tuesday low of $2,888 for a potential resistance zone.

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DiscoverGold 1 día hace

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DiscoverGold 1 día hace

Trump, Tariffs, and the Transatlantic Gold Rush
By: Markets & Mayhem | February 28, 2025

The gold market, long revered for its stability, has recently found itself in an unusual state of flux. The culprit? A widening price disparity between New York and London, an anomaly that has sent shockwaves through the bullion trade and turned normally sedate gold traders into transatlantic logistics experts. What began as a few dollars’ difference per ounce escalated into a $20-$50 price gap, creating an arbitrage opportunity too lucrative to ignore. Since November, hundreds of tonnes of gold have made the voyage across the Atlantic, shifting the balance of one of the world’s oldest financial markets.

To understand the scale of this phenomenon, imagine a scenario where New York’s stock market suddenly priced Apple shares $20 higher than London’s exchange. Traders, sensing an easy profit, would immediately snap up shares in London and sell them in New York, repeating the process until prices equilibrated. Gold operates on a similar principle. Typically, the price gap between London spot and New York futures is a negligible few dollars. But in late 2024, as markets absorbed Trump’s tariff rhetoric and growing U.S. economic nationalism, this gap exploded, creating a classic arbitrage play: buy gold in London, ship it to New York, and cash in on the higher price.
At first, the shift was subtle. November saw only a modest 62-tonne outflow from London’s vaults, a blip in the vast gold market. But by December, as the price divergence persisted, traders ramped up shipments, moving another 29 tonnes. Then came January—the watershed moment. In a single month, 151 tonnes of gold were withdrawn from London’s vaults, the largest monthly outflow on record. The trend continued into February, with another 43 tonnes scheduled for shipment by JPMorgan alone. In total, at least 285 tonnes of gold—worth over $25 billion at current prices—have made the journey since October.

This trade, however, was not without complications. The mechanics of shifting hundreds of tonnes of gold across the Atlantic involve a logistical ballet rivaling any high-stakes financial operation. Unlike stocks, which move at the speed of electrons, gold is a stubbornly physical commodity. It must be withdrawn from high-security vaults in London, transported under armed guard to airports, flown to the U.S. in specially secured cargo holds, and then delivered to COMEX-approved storage facilities in New York. Each step involves costs—transport, security, insurance—all of which nibble away at the profit margin. But with the price gap holding steady above $20 per ounce, traders calculated that the gains outweighed the headaches.

Further complicating matters is the difference in bar sizes. London’s gold market operates primarily with 400-ounce “Good Delivery” bars, the gold standard (literally) for international trade. But New York’s COMEX futures contracts require delivery in 100-ounce bars or kilo bars. This mismatch meant that much of the gold arriving from London had to be melted down and recast before it could be delivered into futures contracts. Swiss refiners, already operating near capacity due to central bank demand, suddenly found themselves inundated with orders for recasting. This added another layer of complexity and cost to an already intricate trade.

Why, then, did this price gap emerge in the first place? The simplest explanation is tariffs—or rather, the mere specter of them. President Trump’s rhetoric about sweeping tariffs on foreign goods, including raw materials, injected uncertainty into global markets. While gold itself was unlikely to be directly targeted, traders feared disruptions in trade flows and supply chains, leading to a rush for U.S.-based gold. Safe-haven demand, already heightened by inflationary concerns and geopolitical instability, compounded the issue. Investors preferred to hold gold in New York rather than London, bidding up U.S. futures prices while leaving London’s spot market comparatively subdued.

As gold streamed out of London, the secondary effects rippled through the market. Lease rates for gold—essentially the cost to borrow bullion—spiked to multi-decade highs as available supply dwindled. Traders seeking to roll over short positions found themselves paying a hefty premium to source gold. Meanwhile, COMEX inventories swelled, reaching their highest levels since 2022. By late January, COMEX-registered gold stocks had doubled in just a few months, reflecting the influx of metal from abroad.

The arbitrage play was straightforward but required deep pockets. To execute the trade, a bank or trading house had to front the capital to acquire physical gold, arrange transport, navigate the recasting process, and manage the timing risk inherent in moving a commodity that doesn’t teleport. Hedging was essential—any shift in the price spread during transit could erode or eliminate profits. The financing costs alone limited participation to the most well-capitalized players, with JPMorgan, HSBC, and a handful of other global banks leading the charge.
Now, as February unfolds, signs are emerging that the arbitrage window is beginning to close. With so much gold having already moved, the supply imbalance is correcting. The price spread, while still elevated compared to historical norms, is narrowing. Some traders are finding that by the time their gold reaches New York, the profit margin has diminished. Others, wary of tying up capital in an increasingly crowded trade, are stepping back. Market forces, as they always do, are restoring equilibrium.

Still, the episode raises broader questions about the modern gold market. The fact that such a significant price divergence persisted for months underscores the challenges of moving physical commodities in a world dominated by electronic trading. It also highlights the outsized role of policy uncertainty in shaping financial markets. The mere threat of tariffs was enough to trigger a massive reallocation of one of the world’s oldest and most stable assets. If gold, the ultimate safe-haven commodity, is this sensitive to political maneuvering, what does that suggest about the stability of other asset classes?

In the end, the transatlantic gold migration of 2024–25 will likely be remembered as a rare and lucrative moment for those who seized the opportunity. For the traders who successfully navigated the maze of logistics, financing, and market timing, the rewards were substantial. For the broader financial world, it serves as a reminder that even in the age of algorithmic trading and instant market access, some opportunities still require an old-fashioned approach: buying low, shipping carefully, and selling high.

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trunkmonk 2 días hace

What most all investors don’t follow nor understand is that hi volume is just a small portion of a bull cycle. When volume drys up, no matter what the shorts want, is when the largest portion of the vertical climb occurs. I’m reading several signs like this occurring recently. Buckle up in a few markets. March is coming.

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DiscoverGold 2 días hace

The 1-year Sharpe ratio for gold has just surpassed 1.6, ranking in the top 1% of all days since 1975...
By: SentimenTrader | February 27, 2025

The 1-year Sharpe ratio for gold has just surpassed 1.6, ranking in the top 1% of all days since 1975.

Gold tended to suffer poor intermediate returns the few other times its Sharpe ratio climbed this high.

The ratio is high in part because a fifth of all days in the past year have recorded a new high. This pace has not been sustainable.

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DiscoverGold 2 días hace

Gold Bearish Reversal Triggered as Sellers Take Control
By: Bruce Powers | February 27, 2025

• Gold broke below key support at $2,893, signaling bearish momentum. Further downside targets include $2,813 and $2,764, while resistance looms at $2,892 and $2,888.

Gold triggered a bearish reversal on Thursday as it fell through the 20-Day MA at $2,893 and a prior weekly low at $2,853. This is the first lower weekly low in eight weeks and when combined with the moving average breakdown shows sellers in control.

A reversal week is indicated if this week ends with gold below last week’s low of $2,878. The low for the day was $2,868 and gold continues to trade near the lows of the day, at the time of this writing. It looks likely to end today’s session in a bearish position, below the 20-Day MA and in the lower third of the day’s trading range.

Next Lower Target is $2,813

The next downside target is the three-week low at $2,813. However, given today’s bearish momentum and decline below key price levels, it looks likely that the three-week low will also fail as support. Further down is the minimum anticipated 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $2,813, which may show signs of support.

Nevertheless, once one key moving average is broken the next higher moving average becomes a potential target. Therefore, the 50-Day MA is a maximum lower target for the correction. It is currently at $2,764 and rising, therefore close to converging with the 50% retracement level at $2,769.

Lower Potential Targets

A long-term bull trend continuation signal was generated in late-January on a breakout above the prior trend high at $2,790. That price level was resistance for the uptrend for approximately 13 weeks before it was surpassed. Therefore, it could easily be tested as support during a bearish retracement. Furthermore, since the 50-Day line is rising, it could converge with the former $2,790 high before it is reached.

Or certainly be in the vicinity of that price level. Nonetheless, it can also be considered the top of a potential support range going down to the 50% retracement at $2,769. This is assuming that the 50-Day line matches or exceeds the 50% retracement in the coming days or weeks.

Signs of Strength to Face Downward Pressure

Rallies will likely be used by investors to exit long positions and enter shorts. The 20-Day MA at $2,892 is an obvious potential resistance along with the lows of the previous couple of days at $2,888. Finally, since the month of February ends tomorrow, gold is at risk of ending the month in a relatively weak position in the lower half of the month’s trading range.

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DiscoverGold 3 días hace

Gold Continues to Look Rangebound
By: Christopher Lewis | February 27, 2025

• The gold market fell hard in the early hours of Thursday, as the markets continued to look very rangebound overall. At this point, gold continue to look very much a “buy on the dip” scenario.

Gold Markets Technical Analysis

Gold markets have fallen a bit during the trading session early Thursday morning, but we are approaching an area that is in fact supported as we have seen over the last couple of weeks. So I do think it’s very likely that we could see a bit of interest in gold here. Whether or not we can bounce enough to break back above the $2,900 level is the question. And if we do, then I think we just go back towards the top of the range near $2,950 or so. Anything above opens up the possibility of a move to the $3,000 level.

That being said, if we were to break down below the $2,870 level, then we might have a little bit of a deeper correction, perhaps down to the 50-day EMA and the $2,800 level. This, of course, is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a lot of people would be paying close attention to it. The 50-day EMA being there, of course, lends more credence, but it’s also worth noting that it was a major swing in late October of last year, and therefore I think a lot of people will be paying attention to that region, perhaps trying to pick up cheap ounces.

All things being equal, this is a market that I do like still, and I do think that there are plenty of global shocks out there that could come into the picture that people will be watching. Ultimately, this market is one that does tend to be very noisy. But we are very much in an uptrend, and that is going to continue to be the way going forward. So, with that, I think dips continue to offer buying opportunities.

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silver_bars 3 días hace

US Treasury Debt/Bonds VS. Holding Gold ..... summed up by Garrett Goggin .....

SKIP FORWARD TO 12:20 OF VIDEO .....

TRANSCRIPT ......

"the reason why Gold is such a superior asset to treasury bonds ... is

because if you're a country, any country, and you own treasury debt and

you run a foul of American foreign policy it's like; "Boop" (press of a button) gone ...

all your billions are gone ...

where'as Gold, you hold it in a vault underneath your Central Bank,

guarded by the military ... no one's taking your Gold ...

so a lot of countries - China has been moving away from treasuries ...

China's buying gold ... Russia's buying gold ... BRICS are buying Gold"

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DiscoverGold 3 días hace

Gold Struggles Near Highs, Testing Critical Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | February 26, 2025

• Gold’s bullish trend faces pressure as support at $2,888 is tested. A break lower could lead to further declines toward the 50-Day MA.

Gold dropped to a low of $2,891 on Wednesday and thereby successfully tested support around the 20-Day MA, which is at $2,888 currently. An intraday bounce followed, and gold is back trading around the opening price, at the time of this writing. Nevertheless, bullish momentum has declined as gold consolidated near highs over the past couple of weeks. It is at risk of breaking below key trend support represented by the 20-Day MA, as well as an internal uptrend line. But the 20-Day line provides the more significant dynamic support levels.

Trend Support at Risk

Monday’s new record high of $2,956 completed a $373 or 14.5% advance when measured from the December swing low at $2,582. Notice that the angle of ascent of the trend steepened following that low and the subsequent reclaim of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs. An upside breakout of a short resistance trendline also helped improve demand further. As the trend continued to rise following the December low, the rate of change in the price of gold increased. This dynamic can also be seen by the widening of the spread between the 20-Day MA and 50-Day MA.

Bearish Potential

The accelerated advance is contained within a rising trend channel that shows the underlying angle of ascent for the larger bull trend pattern. Therefore, a decisive trend reversal signal could eventually see a test of support around the 50-Day MA or the lower trendline. Notably, there is a bearish divergence in the relative strength indicator (RSI) and it is trending down following some time in overbought territory.

If 20-Day MA Fails, the 50-Day MA Becomes a Target

Following the reclaim of the two moving averages, there has not yet been a pullback to test those lines as support until today when the 20-Day MA was tested. If the 20-Day line fails to hold, the 50-Day line becomes a potential target. This doesn’t mean that it will be achieved, but it certainly could be.

Other price levels that could see support include the prior trend high at $2,790 and a lower previous resistance zone starting around $2,726. However, if it is reached it shows a failure of support from both the 50-Day MA and the uptrend line. That would be bearish and open the possibility of testing the lower trend indicators represented by the 200-Day MA at $2,579 and an uptrend line.

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surfer44 3 días hace

6 TOP GOLD STOCKS for 2025

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trunkmonk 4 días hace

I think gold futures paper market is gonna collapse, never seen such signs like lately, with buy volume, dumping, and physical demand put on the market. Insane things will get understood over time, so lets see what is causing all the insanity. maybe soon

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DiscoverGold 4 días hace

Gold Pulls Back After Failed Breakout
By: Bruce Powers | February 25, 2025

• After an unsuccessful breakout, gold is testing key support levels. A deeper correction could follow if $2,853 breaks, with downside targets at $2,790 and $2,754.

Gold has failed to follow through on a bull breakout of a pennant pattern triggered last week. On Tuesday, it fell sharply to a six-day low of $2,888 thereby triggering a breakdown of the pennant as the lower boundary line was broken. Support for the day was subsequently seen around a rising trendline. Gold looks set to end the day in a bearish position in the lower third of the day’s trading range. Since a failure of the bull breakout just occurred, it seems likely that potential support levels will be further tested before buyers take back control again.

20-Day MA is Key Trend Support

Key dynamic trend support is established by the 20-Day MA, currently at $2,880. The uptrend line provides a guide, but the 20-Day line deserves greater respect as the trendline could be broken while support of the 20-Day line is retained. Therefore, the 20-Day line along with previous price levels may help determine the potential scope of a pullback.

Last week’s low at $2,878 and the three-week low at $2,853 are weekly support levels to be aware of. The weekly pattern shows eight consecutive weeks of higher weekly highs and higher lows, including this week. However, this week is not over and if last week’s low fails to hold as support, the bullish weekly pattern will start to change. That could lead to a deeper correction or further consolidation.

Bearish RSI Divergence

There is a bearish divergence showing in the relative strength index (RSI) and a decline below a minor swing low on the RSI line just triggered. This would seem to be supportive of deeper or longer correction. Certainly, it shows a weakening of demand. Nonetheless, the reaction around key price levels will help provide a roadmap.

If the three-week low at $2,853 is broken, lower prices become more likely. A test of support at the prior trend high of $2,790 from October is an obvious potential downside target. It is followed by the 50-Day MA, around $2,754 currently. There is also an uptrend line slightly below the 50-Day line currently. It should also provide guidance if approached.

Strong Recent Performance

From the interim swing low of $2,582 in December, gold advanced by as much as $374 or 14.5% in 45 trading days, as of Monday’s new trend high of $2,956. That is a solid performance but also an indication some degree of rest is needed before gold it read to trend higher again.

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trunkmonk 4 días hace

Paper slugs brought it down to their strike prices.

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trunkmonk 5 días hace

Gold acting weird today.

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DiscoverGold 5 días hace

London Offloading Gold to New York
By: Martin Armstrong | February 25, 2025

Capital is unsafe in Europe as the war drums beat louder by the day. Looming tariffs have many questioning if they will spread to precious metals and smart money has selected the USA as its safe haven. Moreover, gold is selling at a premium in the US leading to an uptick in arbitrage. Gold has been on the rise since the outbreak of the Ukrainian war and we’ve seen a 10% rise in the past year alone. Now, the Bank of England is working quickly to move a large portion of its gold reserves from London to New York.

Gold prices have been about $20 lower per troy oz in London compared to New York. J.P. Morgan, for example, moved $4 billion in gold reserves from London to NYC this February. The central bank is especially eager to send its reserves off to America. London’s largest gold reserve currently holds 310 tonnes of gold or 420,000 gold bars. England only owns 5.4% of its gold holdings with major banking institutions and foreign central banks accounting for the bulk.

The London Bullion Market Associated stated that 150 tonnes of gold were shipped out to the Big Apple in January alone, with 100 tonnes of that coming directly from the Bank of England’s massive vaults. Transporting tangible assets is no easy feat, even for a central bank. The Bank of England stockpiles massive gold bars weighing 400 troy oz each. New York’s gold exchange only accepts smaller ingots of 100 oz, so the bullion must be sent to Swiss refiners to be melted and recast.

There is a rush to get gold out amid war and geopolitical tensions. Swiss exports of gold to the US reached a 13-year high this January and has no signs of slowing. The risk of war in Europe is very real and that can take gold prices up dramatically. Banks are often severely restricted during times of war and it certainly would not be as simple to move precious metals across the Atlantic.

In both world World Wars, capital fled Europe for the US, strengthening the dollar and driving up gold demand as a hedge against uncertainty. Gold doesn’t necessarily move with inflation but reacts to geopolitical instability and loss of trust in institutions. If conflict escalates in Europe, capital outflows could once again drive gold higher, similar to historical patterns. There is a reason we are witnessing a mass exodus of gold into the US. As far as a matter of confidence is concerned, DOGE’s search into Fort Knox could have many questioning if gold is indeed safe in the US. We are certainly living in a time of mass political uncertainty.

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NYBob 5 días hace

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trunkmonk 5 días hace

BOOM, physical gold getting sucked up like there is no tomorrow

We could see gold at $5,000. We could still have uncertainty and disorder, but the world wouldn't be ending.”
Gold telegraph

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fink 5 días hace

What will happen if the golds not there?

They need to hit all the vaults at the same time.

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NYBob 5 días hace

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trunkmonk 6 días hace

Go for the Gold

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Bigfootbud 6 días hace

Love 2 U!! 1 Timothy 4:8 For bodily exercise profiteth little: but godliness is profitable unto all things, having promise of the life that now is, and of that which is to come.

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NYBob 7 días hace

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trunkmonk 7 días hace

Rafi knows what he is talking about. he has a proven record and he tests his theories and posts his results.

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NYBob 7 días hace

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trunkmonk 7 días hace

yup, the evidence is there, when you can transfer gold anywhere in the world in seconds, and 90% of the world trusts Gold over anything else including crypto it makes sense. Billions have gold, want gold, and now they can avoid corrupt losers as in almost every Dem in DC, its a way to get around their greed too. Trump understands the value of Gold, always has. Cryptos unlocks its ability to move around the world and avoid toilet paper futures contracts too. its a win win for gold.

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silver_bars 7 días hace

A rumor from a VC in Canada .....

"Spoke to a client today… That client is one degree away from Donald Trump and I’ve seen him in multiple pictures with Don Jr. So I know he’s legit. He told me that Trump and Elon are planning a gold backed crypto utilizing America’s gold at Fort Knox. This would be the second coming of a gold standard currency and a top global asset to play proxy to gold"....

https://ceo.ca/@KilconaVC?id=c1714305a23b

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NYBob 1 semana hace

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DiscoverGold 1 semana hace

$Gold - This was the the 8th up week in a row. The decline into the next 14-15 week cycle low has been delayed but is still coming next week, though we're talking about a mild decline with support at 2790...
By: CyclesFan | February 22, 2025

• $Gold - This was the the 8th up week in a row. The decline into the next 14-15 week cycle low has been delayed but is still coming next week, though we're talking about a mild decline with support at 2790. The options are either a big down week next week or 2 smaller down weeks.

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starboy 1 semana hace

Worth a quick scan to see how prognosticators 'calls' on gold prices actually panned out. https://www.goldpriceforecast.com/gold-price-analysis/gold-price-2025-is-the-new-2011/

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DiscoverGold 1 semana hace

Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | February 22, 2025

• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of February 18, 2025.

Gold: Currently net long 268.7k, down 15.8k.

Gold bugs are clearly not in a mood to catch their breath. They have been rallying the metal since it ticked $2,608 on December 30. This week, it rallied 1.8 percent to $2,953/ounce. This was the eighth week in a row of positive weekly gains.

The yellow metal touched as high as $2,973 intraday Thursday – just past last week’s high of $2,969.

Concurrently, in five of the last eight sessions, gold has found sellers at $2,960s. Not surprisingly, the technicals are overbought – the daily particularly. Continued failure at this resistance will open the door toward a crucial breakout retest at $2,800. After this, there is support at $2,750s, and $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s after that.

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | February 22, 2025

NY Gold Futures closed today at 29532 and is trading up about 11% for the year from last year's settlement of 26410. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into February reflecting that this has been only still, a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 29734 while it is still trading above last month's high of 28629.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2025. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 10 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 28899 and overhead resistance forming above at 29565. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of February 17th at 29734, which was up 14 weeks from the low made back during the week of November 11th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 29734 to 28876. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 29734 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 29734. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 29394 which we are still currently trading above for now.

Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.

Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 15 months since the low established back in October 2023.

Critical support still underlies this market at 26170 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.

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trunkmonk 1 semana hace

and if there is less or even much less then 8,000 Tons, ur talking 100,000/oz possibly. I firmly believe its his plan to Make Americans Wealthy Again. MAWA

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NYBob 1 semana hace

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silver_bars 1 semana hace

Senator Rand Paul's formal written request to inspect & start auditing Fort Knox Gold inventory by March 19, 2025 .....

https://x.com/SenRandPaul/status/1893039226666496502

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surfer44 1 semana hace

The Real Story Behind Gold Shortages | Gold Crisis COVER-UP | Dave Kranzler

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silver_bars 1 semana hace

The Gold price held up surprisingly well today in the face of big sell-offs in all the major US stock indexes.

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trunkmonk 1 semana hace

The big rumor (keyword: rumor) is that gold is due for a revaluation. Will Trump use the revaluation to boost the value of the Treasury's holdings, possibly paying down the national debt? Will his administration attempt a partial return to the gold standard? Will the gold be used to counter China's reported attempt at launching a gold-backed currency to challenge the US dollar?
it’s well known, cause China is going to beat US to the punch cause they get it. And they have been getting all the gold they can, while Biden Admin spent and hoarded as much money as they can trying to nosedive America. Maybe they sold or stole all the gold we have who knows. Attitude will tell us all.

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DiscoverGold 1 semana hace

Gold Bullish Breakout Stalls, Bearish Risks Increasing
By: Bruce Powers | February 21, 2025

• Gold’s breakout momentum stalls, raising concerns of a potential reversal. A decisive move above $2,955 or below $2,917 will shape the next trend direction.

Despite the poor performance of a bull pennant breakout that triggered on Wednesday, gold managed to hold up near trend highs on Friday. Friday was another low volatility day with a relatively narrow range for the third day in a row. Nonetheless, Friday will likely establish a lower daily high and lower daily low for the first time in five days.

And if the closing price is near current levels at the time of this writing, it will close near the close of the prior two days and at the top boundary line of a bull pennant trend continuation pattern. That shows resistance at the top of the bullish pattern and therefore a failed breakout so far.

Failed Breakout

A failed bullish breakout has the potential to follow through in the opposite direction. In other words, the chance for a bearish reversal is increasing. Today’s low of $2,917 is key near-term support as a drop below it may lead to a test of support near the lower boundary line of the pennant and a possible drop through the bottom of the pattern. As of today, the lower line looks to be around Tuesday’s low of 2,892 and therefore it can be used as a proxy for the line.

Support Levels Look Solid

Nonetheless, if the line is broken then there is an interim minor swing low included in the pennant formation at $2.878. A little lower is a lower swing low and the bottom of the pennant at $2,864. Notice that today the 20-Day MA (purple) has risen to $2,862, almost matching the pennant bottom.

Those two indicators are key to the current advance. If either is broken to the downside and gold stays there, the likelihood of a deeper bearish retracement increases. The angle of ascent for the trend will then change, possibly to match the lower 50-Day MA, now at $2,743.

Bullish Possible May Yet Occur

Despite the slow start to the pennant breakout, a decisive advance above this week’s high of $2,955 would trigger a bullish continuation of the trend on the weekly time frame. And that would put gold on track to target higher price levels. A 300% extension shows a possible target at $2,982. Further up is another extended price target at $3,012.

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Gold and Silver Are Crushing the S&P 500!
By: Karl Montevirgen | February 21, 2025

• Gold and silver are crushing the commodities markets and the S&P 500.
• Gold is hitting record highs, fueled by sentiment and speculation.
• Consider the key levels to watch for investment opportunities in gold and silver.

There's been a lot of wild speculation surrounding gold's bullish run. When you consider a gold investment, you're likely to think of the more common factors that come into play: inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, and central bank demand.

But there's more to the mix now, especially in light of the Trump administration's latest initiatives and policies. These new developments are spurring speculations that are likely to change the context surrounding how investors view gold. Here are a few key things to think about:

• Around 12.5 million ounces of gold have been imported into the US since last November.
• President Trump announced a possible audit of Fort Knox gold reserves which hasn't been done since the early 1970s (is it all still there?).
• The US government's gold valuations remain at an outdated $42.22 an ounce.

The big rumor (keyword: rumor) is that gold is due for a revaluation. Will Trump use the revaluation to boost the value of the Treasury's holdings, possibly paying down the national debt? Will his administration attempt a partial return to the gold standard? Will the gold be used to counter China's reported attempt at launching a gold-backed currency to challenge the US dollar?

Whatever the case may be, a full revaluation is likely to drive bullish sentiment in gold, sending prices higher. If the government sells gold to weaken the dollar, you can expect some short-term price dips before a rebound. And if, by any chance, the Fort Knox audit reveals a shortfall, then that's bad news for the economy and markets but good news for gold, which will likely send prices skyrocketing.

To get some near-term context, let's see how gold has been performing over the last year relative to silver, commodities in general, and the S&P 500.

FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF GOLD, SILVER, COMMODITIES MARKETS, AND THE S&P 500. Gold and silver outperformed both the broader stock and commodities markets over the past year.

Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

It turns out that both gold and silver have been outperforming the broader equities and commodities markets.

Let's take a long-term view of gold. Below is a weekly chart.

FIGURE 2. WEEKLY CHART OF GOLD FUTURES. There are no signs of topping yet, though its ascent has grown increasingly steep.

Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

If volume precedes price, then accumulation, as shown by the Accumulation/Distribution Line (ADL) on the chart, has stayed well ahead of it for a little over three years. Momentum-wise, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) may be registering as "overbought" but the reliability of this indicator in the current environment is anyone's guess.

Trump's policy blitz is transforming the political and economic landscape, and it brings certain shocks that can make technical and fundamental analysis more fluid. For now, there are no clear signs of topping, which makes it difficult for anyone interested in finding an entry point. So, let's zoom in on a daily chart.

FIGURE 3. DAILY CHART OF GOLD. There are still no signs of a top except for the declining buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow indicator.

Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

There are still no clear signs of near-term weakness, aside from a slight drop in buying pressure indicated by the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF). If gold pulls back, the $2,900 high will likely serve as the first support level. Additional support zones, marked by the magenta lines, align with key swing highs and lows based on the Zig Zag lines.

The final three levels define a broad trading range and coincide with the Volume by Price indicator, highlighting areas of concentrated trading activity where support is most likely to hold. If prices retreat, these levels will be crucial to watch for a potential rebound. So, right now, it's a matter of waiting for a pullback.

Silver is another asset that has outperformed commodities and the broader market. Might the grey metal present a tradable opportunity? Below is a daily chart to consider.

FIGURE 4. DAILY CHART OF SILVER. The grey metal has room to run but watch your entry point.

Chart source: StockCharts.com. For educational purposes.

The RSI indicates that silver has more upside to go before reaching an overbought level. Note the relative performance window that I plotted in a manner that replicates the well-known gold/silver ratio (lower panel) .

Historically, this ratio has averaged around 65:1 since the 1970s, meaning it typically takes 65 ounces of silver to equal the value of one ounce of gold. Note that every time the ratio reaches the 90-line silver tends to rally.

Silver is currently rallying, but is another entry point on the horizon? Possibly, but patience is key. This relative performance setup highlights the value of the gold/silver ratio in identifying potential silver entry points, whether for short-term trades or long-term positions.

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surfer44 1 semana hace

Warren Buffett explains his rationale for buying silver

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surfer44 1 semana hace

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