TORONTO and MONTRÉAL, April 23,
2024 /CNW/ - FP Canada and the Institute of Financial
Planning (the Institute), formerly the Institut québécois de
planification financière (IQPF), today announced the joint release
of the 2024 Projection Assumption Guidelines and Addendum for
professional financial planners across Canada. The new guidelines take effect
April 30, 2024.
"The Projection Assumption Guidelines are established using a
variety of trusted and publicly available external data sources, as
well as results from a survey of investment and financial services
firms," says Julie Seberras,
CFP®, MBA, FCSI and Chair of the FP Canada Standard
Council™ Standards Panel. "Use of the Projection Assumption
Guidelines is strongly encouraged to promote trust and confidence
in the financial planner's projections, given their objectivity and
basis in reliable sources."
Designed to look beyond the current day rate environment, the
Guidelines are intended to be used when making long-term
projections of 10 years or more. For shorter-term financial
projections (less than 10 years), financial planners may use actual
rates of return on fixed-term investments held to maturity and
dividend yields on equities. When applying the Projection
Assumption Guidelines to client situations, professional financial
planners must always use their professional judgement and should
document and clearly communicate the assumptions used to the
client. In times when markets or economic conditions are changing,
including in high-interest-rate environments, it is particularly
important to note the long-term nature of these
projections.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines for 2024 are as
follows:
Inflation
rate
|
2.1 %
|
Return
rates
|
|
Short-term
|
2.4 %
|
Fixed-income
|
3.4 %
|
Canadian domestic
equities
|
6.4 %
|
Foreign developed
market equities
|
6.5 %
|
Foreign emerging
market equities
|
8.3 %
|
Year's maximum
pensionable earnings (YMPE) or Maximum pensionable earnings (MPE)
growth rate
|
3.1 %
|
Borrowing
rate
|
4.4 %
|
New Considerations for
2024
While stability is an important consideration in setting the
Projection Assumption Guidelines, significant changes in expected
returns may occur from year to year. To account for this, as of
2024, the market-based expected returns reflected in
asset prices are included in Projection Assumption
Guidelines. Asset class yields have historically varied in their
ability to predict future asset class returns. Fixed income yields
have historically been strongly predictive of 10+ year fixed income
returns, Shiller earnings yields, which is the ratio of 10-year
smoothed real earnings to market prices, have been moderately
predictive of 10+ year future equity returns, and cash yields have
had low predictive power over future cash returns. This information
is reflected in the Guidelines which include a market-based
expected return figure in the calculation of fixed income and
equity expected returns. Due to the stronger observed predictive
power in fixed income, a 40% weight has been assigned to the
market-based expected return for this asset class. A market-based
expected return has not been included in the calculation for
cash.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines are accompanied by
an Addendum containing the data sources on which they are
based. The Addendum offers financial planners an opportunity to
fully understand and replicate the recommended calculations. The
Addendum now includes a correlation matrix demonstrating the
relationship of return patterns between asset classes. Further, the
Addendum includes a chart outlining the Projection Assumption
Guidelines results from 2009 and how they've tracked compared to
real rates of return over the years. "When looking at the actual
rates from January 2009 to
January 2024, the Projection
Assumption Guideline rates are within the expected range of
outcomes, which speaks to the reliability and validity of the
projections," says Derek Dedman,
CFP®, M.Sc., CFA, and Chair of the Projection Assumption
Guidelines Committee. FP Canada also publishes an FAQ document,
which is a useful resource for those who wish to learn more about
the development and appropriate usage of the Guidelines.
The Projection Assumption Guidelines Committee is comprised of
individuals who are professional financial planners (through either
Certified Financial Planner® certification or the
F.Pl. designation in Québec) in addition to being actuaries or
Chartered Financial Analyst charterholders. The Standards
Panel is an independent panel comprised of CFP professionals, at
least one licensed financial planner from Québec, and a member of
the public. The Panel's mandate includes oversight of the
Projection Assumptions Guidelines Committee, which develops and
maintains the Guidelines and Addendum.
You can find the 2024 Projection Assumption
Guidelines the Addendum,
and the FAQs on the FP Canada website.
About FP
Canada
Established in 1995, FP Canada is a national not-for-profit
education, certification and professional oversight organization
working in the public interest. FP Canada is dedicated to
championing better financial wellness for all Canadians by leading
the advancement of professional financial planning in
Canada.
About the Institute of Financial
Planning
In 2023, in keeping with its new mission and vision, the
Institut québécois de planification financière became the Institute
of Financial Planning. As a leader in developing and promoting
personal financial planning, the Institute's mission is to ensure
that today's and tomorrow's financial services professionals have
the knowledge, the know-how and the social skills required to
contribute to the financial well-being of people, families, and
communities. For more information, visit
institutefp.org.
SOURCE FP Canada