Pending Home Sales Dropped 2.1% in May
27 Junio 2024 - 9:24AM
Key Highlights
- Pending home sales
decreased 2.1% in May.
- Month over month,
contract signings declined in the Midwest and South but increased
in the Northeast and West.
- Compared to one year
ago, pending home sales declined in all U.S. regions.
Pending home sales in May slipped 2.1%, according to
the National Association of Realtors®. The Midwest and South
posted monthly losses in transactions while the Northeast and West
recorded gains. Year-over-year, all U.S. regions registered
reductions.The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a
forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings
– decreased to 70.8 in May. Year over year, pending transactions
were down 6.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract
activity in 2001.“The market is at an interesting point with rising
inventory and lower demand,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun.
“Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation
in upcoming months. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating
economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage
rates descend.”U.S. Economic ForecastNAR predicts mortgage
rates will remain above 6% in 2024 and 2025, even with the Federal
Reserve cuts to the Fed Funds rate.The association forecasts that
existing-home sales will rise to 4.26 million in 2024 (from 4.09
million 2023) and to 4.92 million in 2025 (from 2024). Housing
starts are expected to rise to 1.382 million in 2024 (from 1.413
million in 2023) and to 1.492 million in 2025 (from 2024).NAR
anticipates the median existing-home price will increase to a
record annual high of $405,300 in 2024 (from $389,800 in 2023) and
to $412,000 in 2025 (from 2024). NAR forecasts increases in the
median new home price to $434,100 in 2024 (from $428,600 in 2023)
and $441,200 in 2025 (from 2024). “The first half of the year did
not meet expectations regarding home sales but exceeded
expectations related to home prices,” explained Yun. “In the second
half of 2024, look for moderately lower mortgage rates, higher home
sales and stabilizing home prices.”Pending Home Sales Regional
BreakdownThe Northeast PHSI ascended 1.1% from last month to
63.6, a decline of 2.3% from May 2023. The Midwest index dropped
0.4% to 70.4 in May, down 5.6% from one year ago.The South PHSI
lowered 5.5% to 83.7 in May, falling 10.4% from the prior year. The
West index increased 1.4% in May to 56.7, down 2.1% from May
2023.About the National Association of Realtors®The National
Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association,
representing 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the
residential and commercial real estate industries. The term
Realtor® is a registered collective membership mark that identifies
a real estate professional who is a member of the National
Association of Realtors® and subscribes to its strict Code of
Ethics.
# # #*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading
indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of
existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has
been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale
usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.Pending
contracts are good early indicators of upcoming sales closings.
However, the amount of time between pending contracts and completed
sales is not identical for all home sales. Variations in the length
of the process from pending contract to closed sale can be caused
by issues such as buyer difficulties with obtaining mortgage
financing, home inspection problems, or appraisal issues.The index
is based on a sample that covers about 40% of multiple listing
service data each month. In developing the model for the index, it
was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity
parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following
two months.An index of 100 is equal to the average level of
contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be
examined. By coincidence, the volume of existing-home sales in 2001
fell within the range of 5.0 to 5.5 million, which is considered
normal for the current U.S.
population.
NOTE: Existing-Home Sales for June will be released July 23.
The next Pending Home Sales Index will be released June 31. All
release times are 10 a.m. Eastern. View the NAR Statistical News
Release Schedule.
Information about NAR is available at
nar.realtor. This and other news releases are posted in
the newsroom at nar.realtor/lywsroom.
Statistical data in this release, as well as other tables and
surveys, are posted in the “Research and Statistics” tab.
- Pending Home Sales: May 2024
Lauren Cozzi
National Association of REALTORS®
202/383-1178
media@realtors.org