Unprecedented population gains are dramatically reshaping Canada’s
conventional and luxury real estate market, according to Sotheby’s
International Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: 2024 Mid-Year
State of Luxury Report. According to the most recent Statistics
Canada data, all major Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) saw their
fastest growth since 2001–2002 in the year ending July 1, 2023.
Calgary led with a 5.9% growth rate, followed by Edmonton and
Vancouver at 4.1%, Toronto at 3.3%, and Montreal at 2.9%. However,
according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts,
interprovincial and interregional migration trends are also leading
indicators for local economic confidence and consumer sentiment, as
well as conventional and luxury housing market performance.
Notably, the Vancouver CMA experienced its largest net loss to
interprovincial migration in over 20 years (-4,795 people), while
all Ontario CMAs including Toronto saw net losses in
interprovincial migration. Conversely, Alberta surpassed British
Columbia in net interprovincial migration gains, with Calgary
leading the CMAs (+26,662). Toronto (-93,024), Montreal (-20,624),
and Vancouver (-18,399) continued to see significant net losses to
regional migration. These trends were reflected in the performance
of the luxury market in the first half of 2024.
Buoyed by the country’s most significant population gain of
221,588 people in the Toronto CMA in the year ending July 1, 2023,
Canada’s largest metropolitan luxury real estate market defied the
headwinds of elevated interest rates, economic uncertainty, and
stifling housing taxes and regulations to maintain steady activity
and balanced conditions in the first half of 2024. While
pre-transactional and sales activity gained steady traction,
accumulating supply empowered prospective homebuyers and investors
to prolong home searches and delay transactions. Overall, the
Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) saw
residential real estate sales over $4 million increase by a modest
8% year-over-year from the first half of 2024. Three ultra-luxury
properties sold over $10 million on MLS, all in the City of
Toronto, compared to seven residences sold above this price point
across the GTA in the same period last year. GTA residential sales
over $1 million fell 10% year-over-year in the first half of 2024.
Within the City of Toronto, residential real estate sales over $4
million rose 4% year-over-year, while three ultra-luxury properties
sold over $10 million on MLS compared to five properties sold above
this price in the first half of 2024. $1 million-plus sales were
down 7% in the City of Toronto.
A surge in immigration, as well as record inter-provincial
migration drove sales activity and housing prices across Calgary’s
conventional and luxury real estate markets to new highs in the
first half of 2024. Population gains also placed unprecedented
pressure on the city’s housing supply and ignited concerns
regarding housing affordability. With population surging 6% and an
influx of 95,784 people into the Calgary CMA, competition for
limited listings inventory steadily intensified amidst increasingly
heated sellers’ market conditions across all spectrums of the
market. Top-tier residential real estate sales over $1 million
climbed 46% year-over-year in the first half of 2024, while $4
million sales saw annual gains of 75%, eclipsing the annual sales
gains of other major metropolitan real estate markets.
Moderate gains in luxury property inventory and activity helped
to sustain balanced conditions within Montreal’s luxury market in
the first half of 2024. Overall, $4 million-plus residential sales
volume were up 29% from levels seen in the first half of 2023,
while sales over $1 million rose by 25% year-over-year. Prospective
home buyers and investors continued to navigate the market at a
leisurely and empowered position, with extended home searches and
negotiations the norm.
Despite an uptick in pre-transactional and sales activity in the
first quarter of the year, consumer sentiment and sales in
Vancouver’s luxury market were muted throughout the spring as
listings inventory continued to climb. Between January 1– June 30,
luxury residential sales over $4 million fell 16% from the same
period last year, while seven ultra-luxury properties sold over $10
million, down 50% from the number sold in the first half of 2023.
Despite a modest annual gain of 27% in $4 million-plus condominium
sales in the first half of 2024, demand for luxury condominiums in
the city remained soft as the confluence of elevated prices and
carrying costs, a shift in luxury consumer preferences towards
single family homes and problematic conditions in the city’s
downtown core, combined to deter purchases. The net loss of 18,399
people from the Vancouver CMA to other regions of B.C. also
dampened demand for conventional and top-tier housing within the
city.
“While record-setting population gains in Canada’s largest
metropolitan areas continue to be powerful influences on the local
real estate market, interprovincial and interregional migration
patterns are now leading signals for local economic sentiment, core
housing demand, and conventional and luxury real estate market
performance overall,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO,
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “The migration of residents,
and their talent and financial capital away from cities like
Toronto and Vancouver to communities in surrounding regions or to
provinces such as Alberta foreshadow trends in sales activity,
housing prices and real estate market performance. This applies to
the cities they are leaving and the markets they are moving to, and
it applies across the conventional and luxury markets."
According to Kottick, sales activity across the vast majority of
Canada’s major metropolitan luxury real estate markets has remained
steady but subdued in recent months because still-elevated prices
and interest rates continue to weigh on consumer decision-making,
and an accumulation of top-tier listings supply empowers
prospective homebuyers to extend decision-making and delay
transactions. However, Alberta’s major metropolitan housing markets
continue to reflect exceptional performance as record-setting
population gains drove conventional and luxury sales to new highs
in the first half of 2024.
Vancouver
Following a year that saw luxury residential sales over $4
million edge up 8% year-over-year in 2023, and despite a promising
improvement in pre-transactional and sales activity in the first
four months of 2024, sales activity in the City of Vancouver’s
luxury real estate market slackened in May and June, closing the
first half of the year on a muted note. Although strengthening
economic indicators in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area
(CMA), including a population increase of 3.8% and employment
growth of 3.3% year-over-year, were conducive for potential home
sales, high housing prices and interest rates continued to deter
housing mobility. This delayed sales transactions and tempered
luxury property prices over the first half of the year.
According to data from the Canadian Real Estate Association
(CREA), the sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) for the overall
Vancouver CMA resale homes market has been trending lower since
peaking in April 2023. By the end of April 2024, the ratio had
fallen to 43.2%, indicating a balanced market. While sales
increased by 7.2% over the first four months of 2024 compared to
the same period last year, new listings increased by 3.7-fold
(26.6%). Within the City of Vancouver’s luxury housing market, the
accrual of inventory, particularly in its condominium segment, has
meant that prospective buyers have ample choice, are being more
selective and are wielding more negotiating power than in years
past. With this, the median price per square foot in the City of
Vancouver for residential properties priced between $4 million and
just under $10 million fell to $1,179 per square foot in May 2024,
the lowest level in three years, signalling the imbalance of supply
over demand, the need for sellers to adjust pricing expectations
and opportunities for astute homebuyers.
Overall, in the first half of 2024, luxury residential real
estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single
family homes) fell 16% to 160 properties sold between January 1–
June 30 compared to the same period last year. During this time,
all price segments saw a reduction in sales but the most
significant drop in sales activity occurred in the ultra-luxury
segment of homes sold for $10 million and above, which declined 50%
to seven properties sold in the first half of 2024. 2,216
properties priced over $1 million sold in the first half of the
year, a nominal annual decline of 3%.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, the
slowdown in luxury sales reflects underlying consumer unease
regarding the cascading effect of Vancouver’s elevated housing
prices, the city’s capacity to attract and retain human capital and
investment as a result, and subsequent repercussions for the local
economy and top-tier housing market. Notably, the Vancouver CMA
experienced its largest net loss to interprovincial migration in
over 20 years (-4,795 people) and a net loss of 18,399 people from
the Vancouver CMA to other B.C. regions according to the latest
data released by Statistics Canada.
Sales of luxury single family home sales over $4 million
experienced the sharpest year-over-year decline of the three
housing types, down 19% to 143 homes sold. Sales of single family
home sales in the ultra-luxury segment of $10 million and above had
the steepest percentage decline of the $1 million-plus price
segments reported on, with only seven homes sold in the first half
of 2024, down 46% from the same period last year. Overall, single
family home sales over $1 million fell 8% year-over-year to 891
sales between January 1– June 30.
Out of all the housing types in the Vancouver top-tier real
estate market, the attached homes segment was the only one to
report growth in the $1 million-plus price range over the first
half of 2024 compared to the same period last year, however, these
gains were not sufficient to offset declining transactions in other
top-tier home types. Between January 1– June 30, 647 attached homes
over $1 million were sold, an increase of 10% compared to the first
half of last year. Although homes priced $4 million and above
increased to three homes from two homes sold in the first half of
2023, the majority of activity occurred in luxury attached homes
priced between $1 million and just under $4 million. In the first
half of 2024, 644 homes were sold in this price range up 10% from
the same period last year. No sales of ultra luxury attached homes
priced $10 million and above took place between January 1– June 30,
on par with sales volumes in the first half of 2023.
The city’s top-tier condominium market remained stagnant in the
first half of the year. Overall, 678 condominiums sold over $1
million in the first half of 2024, down 5% compared to the same
period last year. Sales of luxury condominiums priced between $1
million and just under $4 million fell 6% compared to sales volumes
in the first half of 2023, with 664 units sold. However, luxury
condominium sales over $4 million increased 27% year-over-year in
the first half of 2024 to 14 units sold, with no sales of ultra
luxury units priced $10 million and above compared to one unit sold
in the first half of 2023.
The outlook for the City of Vancouver’s luxury real estate
market over the summer of 2024 is expected to be balanced, with
steady but restrained activity; however, regional and
interprovincial migration trends suggest headwinds for conventional
and luxury real estate activity in the months ahead. With
diminished competition from a smaller-than-usual pool of
prospective top-tier homebuyers, luxury property prices are
expected to soften in a market poised to offer potential purchasers
favourable opportunities.
Calgary
Record immigration and inter-provincial migration have
transformed the City of Calgary's housing market into a heated
sellers’ market, catapulting both conventional and luxury home
sales to unprecedented heights in the first half of 2024. According
to Statistics Canada, the Calgary Census Metropolitan Area (CMA)
experienced a record population gain of 5.9% from July 2022 to July
2023. The population boom of 95,784 new residents compounded
pre-existing local housing demand and intensified pressure on
supply. This has led to brisk price gains and a surge in $1
million-plus property sales that outstripped the pace of growth in
other major metropolitan markets.
In the first half of the year, according to the Calgary Real
Estate Board (CREB), Calgary saw significant price gains across all
housing types, with the benchmark price of single family homes and
condominiums increasing 12% and 17% year-over-year to $767,600 and
$344,700 respectively in June 2024. Bidding war practices from
buyers moving from the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver areas,
including full-price and cash-dominant offers, heightened
competition for available properties.
Overall, Calgary’s top-tier real estate market (condominiums,
attached and single family homes) saw strong activity between
January 1 – June 30, with residential sales over $1 million
increasing 46% year-over-year to 1,130 properties sold. 91% of
these properties sold between $1 million – $2 million, and within
this price segment sales climbed 50% year-over-year. Sales of
luxury properties over $4 million increased to seven properties
sold January 1– June 30, up from four properties sold in the same
period last year. There were no residential property sales over $10
million on MLS in the first half of 2024, as was the case in the
first half of the previous year.
Single family home demand continued to dominate the city’s
luxury housing market, accounting for 83% of total residential
sales above $1 million between January 1 – June 30, a decrease from
88% during the same period last year as higher-density housing
sales claimed a larger share of the top-tier market. Overall,
luxury sales over $1 million increased by 39% year-over-year to 943
properties sold in the first half of 2024. Of these homes sold,
seven did so in the luxury $4 million-plus segment, an increase of
75% year-over-year. Consistent with the first half of the year
prior, no ultra-luxury single family sales above $10 million were
reported.
Rising prices and intense competition pushed prospective
top-tier single family home buyers to explore attached homes as
alternatives, leading to a striking surge in sales in the first
half of 2024. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada
experts, demand for this housing segment is anticipated to remain
strong throughout the summer and leading into the fall, with the
construction and completion of new developments building a pipeline
of new supply across the city. Overall, luxury attached home sales
of over $1 million increased by a remarkable 133% to 149 properties
sold in the first half of the year, the most significant percentage
gains of the top-tier housing types. Consistent with the year
prior, there were no attached home sales yet reported above $4
million on MLS during this time.
Changing generational demographics, as well as the in-migration
of urban dwellers from the Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver
areas, invigorated demand for Calgary’s top-tier condominiums in
the first half of the year. Luxury condominium sales over $1
million increased by 27% year-over-year to 38 properties sold;
however, no sales over $4 million were reported on MLS, consistent
with the first half of 2023.
As Calgary’s strong economic performance, relative
affordability, and desirable livability continue to attract new
residents, the city’s conventional and luxury real estate market is
primed for an active summer market. Although this bodes well for
prospective home sellers and the property values of homeowners,
homebuyers will face rising prices and stiff competition that will
require preparation and a strategic approach. Furthermore,
according to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, the
initial reverberations of housing supply strains indicate that the
city should plan for expanded housing options to meet the needs of
a growing population and to avoid the supply and affordability
challenges endemic in Canada’s larger metropolitan areas.
Greater Toronto Area
Bolstered by an annual population gain of 221,588 persons (3.4%)
in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) from July 1, 2022, to
July 1, 2023 according to Statistics Canada, the Greater Toronto
Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and York) luxury housing market
remained confident, active and surprisingly resilient in the first
half of 2024, defying the headwinds of still-elevated interest
rates, a stagnant Canadian economy, global geo-political turmoil
and new housing policies and taxes. However, a concurrent net loss
of 93,024 residents from the Toronto CMA, largely to other regions
of Ontario, weighed on top-tier market sentiment and
performance.
Despite a sluggish start to 2024, the second quarter gained
momentum with the steady return of active, qualified homebuyers to
the luxury segment and a resurgence in pre-transactional and sales
activity. This revival in demand was counter-balanced by a steady
increase in property listings supply. As luxury inventory
accumulated and competition slackened, prospective buyers gained
stronger positions for favourable negotiations, enjoyed ample time
to make decisions and benefitted from a market that leaned in their
favour. Although the GTA luxury market hovered near balanced
conditions throughout the first half of the year, performance
varied by neighborhood, with several areas, especially those
outside the City of Toronto, favouring buyers by mid-year.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, the
current market conditions for luxury buyers to negotiate are the
most favourable since 2017, when the federal government first
implemented the minimum mortgage “stress test” threshold to cool
the overheated housing market. As a result, it is imperative for
properties to be realistically priced for immediate market norms to
achieve the sale of a luxury home.
Overall, in the first half of 2024, luxury residential real
estate sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single
family homes) in the GTA were up 8% year-over-year to 300
properties sold on MLS as inventory accumulated over the spring
months. GTA ultra-luxury sales over $10 million quieted, with three
properties sold on MLS in the City of Toronto between January 1–
June 30, compared to seven properties sold during the same period
of 2023. $1 million-plus sales experienced a 10% annual decline to
17,023 properties sold in the GTA in the first half of the year.
Property sales between $1 million– $2 million comprised 84% of the
region’s $1 million-plus residential market, on par with the first
half of 2023.
Within the City of Toronto, the pace of luxury residential real
estate sales was leisurely as buyers continued to defer purchases
to evaluate spring’s steady influx of property listings. Sales over
$4 million were up a marginal 4% year-over-year to 186 properties
sold in the first half of the 2024, with ultra-luxury transactions
over $10 million declining to three properties sold on MLS,
compared to five sold in the first half of 2023. Overall, top-tier
real estate sales over $1 million saw a 7% annual decline to 5,665
properties sold in the region in the first half of the year.
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts report that in the
current market, fully-updated properties in premier neighborhoods
featuring bespoke design, home attributes and lifestyle amenities
such as recreational upgrades, cutting-edge technology and robust
security, remain highly sought-after, occasionally attracting
multiple bids. However, the luxury market is now unforgiving of
properties listed above their market value, with over-priced
listings garnering little interest or offers.
Sales activity across the GTA’s luxury single family home market
continued to moderate outside of the City of Toronto in the first
half of the year, as supply continued to accumulate. Between
January 1– June 30, 271 homes sold over $4 million across the
region, an annual increase of 8%. Three ultra-luxury homes sold
above $10 million, compared to seven sold above this price point in
the first half of 2023. Overall single family home sales over $1
million were down 8% year-over-year to 12,451 homes sold in the
first half of 2024. Within the City of Toronto, consumer sentiment
remained positive and the single family home active; however,
buyers’ extended home searches resulted in slower absorption of
available properties. Single family home sales over $4 million held
steady with a nominal 3% year-over-year uptick to 158 homes sold,
with three of these properties sold above $10 million on MLS,
compared to five ultra-luxury homes sold in the first half of 2023.
Overall, 3,463 single family homes sold over $1 million in the city
in the first half of 2024, an annual decline of 6%.
In light of the region’s prolonged and underlying deficit of
medium-density housing, luxury attached home sales over $4 million
were limited in the first half of 2024 despite enduring demand.
Seven attached homes sold over $4 million between January 1– June
30, all in the City of Toronto, on par with the number sold in this
price range in the first half of 2023. Top-tier attached home sales
over $1 million were down 6% year-over-year to 1,268 properties
sold in the City of Toronto in the first half of 2024, as $1
million-plus sales across the GTA declined 13% to 3,289 homes
sold.
Toronto’s luxury condominium market continued to transition in
favour of buyers in the first half of 2024 as inventory swelled,
buyers hesitated to commit, and price compromises became the norm.
Even still, in the first half of 2024, $4 million-plus condominium
sales across the broader Greater Toronto Area held relatively
steady with a 5% year-over-year gain to 22 units sold, with no
transactions over $10 million, as was the case in the first half of
2023. During this time, condominium sales over $1 million declined
12% year-over-year, with 1,283 units sold in the GTA between
January 1– June 30. 21 of the 22 GTA condominiums sold over $4
million did so in the City of Toronto up 24% from sales in the city
in the first half of 2023. Consistent with the first half of 2023,
there were no sales yet recorded above $10 million on MLS. $1
million-plus condominium sales fell 11% year-over-year to 934 units
sold in the City of Toronto.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, a
steady luxury market is projected for the summer months, as the
Bank of Canada’s overnight lending rate cut of 25 basis points in
June, while not financially significant for luxury homebuyers and
sellers, was a psychologically significant catalyst for some
prospective buyers to re-engage in an increasingly favourable
market. With inventory rising, sellers will be required to align
prices to current realities to enable a sale.
Montreal
The City of Montreal’s conventional and luxury real estate
markets gained traction through the first half of 2024 as both home
buyers and sellers returned to the market in greater numbers,
encouraged by the prospect of improved interest rates. However, a
rise in property listings combined with the reluctance of
prospective sellers to accept market prices lower than the city's
previous peaks and the refusal of buyers to pay above current price
benchmarks, resulted in stalled transactions and only moderate
sales gains.
The latest residential real estate market statistics from the
Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB) for
the month of May 2024 indicate that the Montreal Census
Metropolitan Area (CMA) market is gradually regaining its footing.
Over the first five months of the year, dollar volumes increased by
23.3%, driven by a 16.3% surge in sales. Expectations that the Bank
of Canada will loosen its monetary policy throughout 2024, and
employment gains in key high-income sectors for the Montreal Census
Metropolitan Area (CMA) including health and social services (up
6.5% year-over-year) and finance, insurance, real estate and
leasing (up 0.7% year-over-year), are contributing to a more
positive outlook. In light of improved economic conditions, sellers
have also returned to the market in larger numbers. New listings
over the first five months of 2024 increased by 20.1% over the same
period in 2023. Despite new listings gains outpacing sales growth,
the overall market remained in sellers’ market territory (59.6%)
according to the sales-to-new-listings-ratio (SNLR) over the first
five months of 2024 compared to the same time last year (61.6%) due
to solid transactional activity.
Overall, in the first half of the year, the City of Montreal saw
864 total top-tier real estate transactions (condominiums, attached
and single family homes) over $1 million, an annual increase of
25%. Of those transactions, 18 homes sold in the luxury $4 million
segment, an increase of 29% over the same period in 2023. On par
with the first half of 2023, there were no transactions reported on
MLS in the ultra-luxury $10 million-plus segment between January 1–
June 30. Notably, sales activity for properties priced between $1
million–$2 million increased 27% year-over-year and accounted for
84% of total sales in Montreal’s $1 million-plus residential
market.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Québec experts, a
new generation of affluent, well-resourced local entrants to the
luxury market are largely sustaining market activity. However,
these buyers are adopting a cautious approach, largely attracted to
well-priced, move-in-ready homes. They are not seeking to
overextend themselves and, as a result, are purchasing homes that
align with their luxury needs at a price point that is personally
suitable, and in line with market realities. The influx of young
professionals entering the luxury housing market, in many cases for
the first time, is driving activity for move-in ready luxury homes
in key areas of the city, including the downtown core, Westmount,
Outremont, and Sud-Ouest.
Single family homes accounted for the greatest share (41%) of
all sales in Montreal’s $1 million-plus residential real estate
market in the first half of 2024, and the annual increase of single
family home sales over this price threshold by 26% to 355 homes
sold in the first half of 2024 helped lift the performance of the
luxury market overall. Luxury single family home sales over $4
million increased 9% year-over-year to 12 properties sold. Sales of
luxury single family homes priced between $1 million and just under
$4 million moved up 27% year-over-year to 343 properties sold.
Between January 1– June 30 there were no transactions reported in
the ultra-luxury $10 million-plus segment, on par with last
year.
Sales of luxury attached homes over $1 million rose 13%
year-over-year in the first half of 2024 to 271 homes sold, a
robust rate of growth, yet the lowest rate of the residential
housing types. There was one luxury attached home sold in the $4
million-plus luxury segment in the first half of 2024, compared to
zero properties sold at this price in the first half of 2023.
Overall, luxury condominium sales over $1 million increased by
38% year-over-year to 238 properties sold in the first half of
2024, a faster pace than sales across the overall condominium
market in aggregate, which expanded 16% over a similar period
according to the QPAREB. Of these, five condominiums sold over $4
million compared to three sold in the first half of 2023.
Consistent with the year prior, there were no sales yet reported in
the ultra-luxury $10 million-plus segment between January 1– June
30. The increased supply of brand-new, recently completed luxury
condominium units is attracting a greater number of well-heeled
buyers who are taking advantage of expanded property listing
options to purchase units.
The City of Montreal’s luxury market is projected to maintain
balanced conditions throughout the summer of 2024, according to
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts. This is due to an
increase in new listings enticed back onto the market due to
improved sales activity, and the return of buyers attracted by
ample property choices, improved housing market confidence and
favourable prices and conditions. Despite a slight imbalance
between supply and demand, steady transaction activity for quality,
ready-to-move-in luxury properties is expected to support modest
price gains in the coming months.
For more information on Sotheby's International Realty Canada
and the Top-Tier Real Estate: 2024 Mid-Year State of Luxury Report,
contact:
Talk Shop MediaJenna Querengesser
778-288-1477jenna.querengesser@talkshopmedia.com
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DisclaimerThe information contained in this
report references market data from MLS boards across Canada.
Sotheby's International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data
can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not
indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account
for price differentials within local markets. This report is
published for general information only and not to be relied upon in
any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation
of the information and analysis presented in this report, no
responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby's
International Realty Canada or Sotheby's International Realty
Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of,
reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.