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5 días hace
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 14, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 275.6k, up 15.9k.
Gold rallied hard in the first three sessions, tagging $2,760 by Wednesday, but only to then unravel to finish the week up only 0.6 percent to $2,676/ounce. As a result, the weekly left a rather large upper wick. Seven weeks ago, when the metal reached a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30, a gravestone doji formed on the weekly. This week’s candle has a similar look to it.
More selling pressure likely lies ahead. On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
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5 días hace
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 14, 2024
The NY Gold Futures closing today at 26758 is immediately trading down about 0.37% for the year from last year's settlement of 26858. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26679 and overhead resistance forming above at 26807. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 8.648%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25685. Additional support is to be found at 26503. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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7 días hace
Gold Stocks Big Bargains
By: Adam Hamilton | December 13, 2024
Gold stocks remain big bargains, still priced for bygone much-lower gold prices. Gold miners are earning enormous record profits, fueled by gold’s powerful bull market. Yet traders have been slow to recognize this, leaving gold stocks seriously undervalued relative to their underlying earnings. This striking anomaly won’t last, as eventually stock prices always mean revert to some reasonable multiple of corporate profits.
One year ago this week, gold was trading around $2,000. Those levels were considered very high then, as gold had just achieved its first nominal record close in 3.3 years of $2,071! Traders were generally still fairly bearish on gold then. But my essay written that week was quite bullish, arguing “While $2,450 is achievable, personally I’m more comfortable looking for a conservative 25% upleg taking gold near $2,275.”
That contrarian call came to pass in early April, and gold kept on blasting higher. In mid-September this gold upleg grew to monster status at 40%+ gains, before peaking in late October skyrocketing 53.1% in 12.9 months! Gold clocked in with an amazing 43 record closes in that span, the last being $2,786 six weeks ago. That left gold extremely-overbought and speculators’ gold-futures positioning extremely-overextended.
Thus gold was at high risk for a healthy selloff to rebalance sentiment and technicals, which soon came to pass. But it merely stretched to an 8.0% pullback at worst by mid-November, showing gold’s monster upleg remains alive and well. This year’s strong gold price action has been fueled by big global demand, from Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian jewelry buyers. Gold is shifting into a higher-price regime.
With 2024 almost over, gold has averaged $2,378 on close this year. That’s way higher than preceding years, with 2021, 2022, and 2023 averaging $1,798, $1,801, and $2,077. Gold-stock prices should reflect these higher prevailing gold prices which overwhelmingly drive their underlying earnings. Yet across these same four years starting in 2021, the leading GDX gold-stock ETF averaged $33.76, $29.88, $35.85, and $34.79.
From 2021 to 2024, average gold prices soared 32.2%. Yet average gold-stock prices per GDX only edged up 3.1%! This is a stunning anomaly, as historically major gold stocks dominating this ETF have usually amplified material gold moves by 2x to 3x. That’s driven by gold-mining profits really leveraging higher gold prices. As mining costs only rise slowly, gold outpacing them fuels outsized earnings growth.
After every quarterly earnings season, I dive deeply into the latest results reported by GDX’s 25 largest component stocks. The latest published a month ago covers Q3’24, where gold averaged a dazzling record $2,477. Yet the GDX top 25’s average all-in sustaining costs ran far lower at $1,431 per ounce, implying sector unit profits of $1,046. Those skyrocketed 74.0% YoY, the fifth quarter in a row of huge growth!
Starting in Q3’23, GDX-top-25 implied unit profits soared 87.2%, 42.3%, 34.9%, 83.7%, and 74.0% YoY! During 2024’s first three quarters, those averaged $980 per ounce. That was a whopping 94.1% higher than 2022’s average, when prevailing gold prices were 24.3% lower! With earnings nearly doubling, it makes no fundamental sense at all for yearly-average GDX prices to only be running 16.4% better this year.
This unsustainable valuation anomaly is even more shocking when charted with another proxy. Since prevailing gold prices overwhelmingly drive gold-mining profits, looking at gold-stock price levels relative to gold reveal undervaluation and overvaluation. Dividing GDX’s daily closes by the mighty GLD gold ETF’s yields the GDX/GLD Ratio or GGR. It shows if gold stocks are relatively-cheap or relatively-expensive.
Here this GGR in blue along with key technicals are superimposed over the raw GDX in red. The major gold stocks certainly haven’t had a bad run, with GDX surging 70.2% at best during gold’s monster upleg. But that made for fairly-dismal 1.3x upside leverage to gold, far behind that historical 2x-to-3x range. Gold stocks have so greatly lagged their metal that relative to it they are still trading at secular-bottoming levels!
In late October GDX surged to a 4.2-year high, and was less than 1% under its best close in a whopping 11.8 years! That magnitude of secular breakout would’ve worked wonders to improve sentiment and attract traders to gold stocks. But that was torpedoed by the world’s largest gold miner’s Q3 results the next day, as analyzed in my latest quarterlies essay. Newmont missed big on AISCs, so its stock crashed 14.7%!
The only gold stock included in the S&P 500 suffering its worst daily drop in 27 years in the best of times for gold miners seriously tainted sentiment. Gold was still surging to more records, yet GDX rolled over dragged down by NEM. The GGR was decisively breaking out of its multi-year downtrend before that Newmont debacle! GDX’s selloff was soon exacerbated by gold’s own overdue pullback, slamming gold stocks.
GDX naturally bottomed with gold in mid-November, falling 19.5% to the metal’s 8.0% for normal 2.4x downside leverage. But the resulting GGR read of 0.150x was jaw-dropping! While gold stocks had been lower relative to gold earlier in its monster upleg, that was exceedingly-anomalous too. In late February after gold had started surging but gold stocks hadn’t really followed, the GGR slumped to an incredible 0.137x...
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2 semanas hace
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 7, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 3, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 259.7k, up 9.4k.
Gold bugs were repelled at the 50-day ($2,681) for six successive sessions including the first four this week. They lost the average on November 11 and have since closed above it only once.
Earlier on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
On November 14, the metal ticked $2,542 intraday and reversed higher. The rally since has now stalled at the 50-day. This week, it lost 0.8 percent to $2,660/ounce. The longer it takes to reclaim the average, which is now flat to slightly falling, the higher the odds of continued downside pressure. There is support at $2,610s immediately ahead.
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2 semanas hace
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 7, 2024
At this time, the NY Gold Futures closed today at 26596. As of now, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains neutral with resistance standing at 26784 and support forming below at 26566. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 3 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 5.528%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25415. Resistance is to be found starting at 27369. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 8 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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2 semanas hace
Signal Says Target This Gold Stock Right Now
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | December 4, 2024
• Gold mining stock Newmont could finish the year strong
• NEM historically outperforms in December in the last decade
Since running into $2,700 in October, gold prices have cooled off, consolidating below this mark, though still elevated compared to the last 12 months. Gold traders have joined the the safe-haven asset in pulling back, but if past is precedent, one industry heavyweight could be ready to rally.
Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM) is one of the top stocks on the SPX to own in December going back a decade. Per Schaeffer's Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White, the miner averages a 4.4% return in December, and has finished the month higher eight times in the last 10 years.
Last seen trading at $41.42, a move of similar magnitude would help NEM put some separation between its year-to-date breakeven level. The shares hit a more than two-year high of $58.72 on Oct. 22, but have since taken a 29% cut off that peak. The round-number $40 level has stepped up as support, while the 320-day moving average could be a pivot point going forward.
Options traders remain call skewed on NEM. On the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), 12,737 calls have changed hands in the last 10 days, compared to just 2,926 puts. However, this ratio ranks in the middling percentile of its annual range, suggesting the rate of bullish bets may be tapering off.
Premium is affordable though, per the equity’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 29% that now ranks in the 11th percentile of its annual range. The stock has also tended to outperform these expectations over the past year, per its Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 97 out of 100.
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3 semanas hace
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 30, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26810 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26701 and overhead resistance forming above at 27185. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 2 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 7.149%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26503. Resistance is to be found starting at 27221. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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4 semanas hace
Gold Mid-Tiers’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 22, 2024
The mid-tier and junior gold miners in this sector’s sweet spot for upside potential just finished reporting a spectacular record quarter! All-time-high gold prices combined with relatively-contained costs catapulted unit earnings to another epic record. Those incredibly-rich profits leave mid-tiers even more undervalued relative to prevailing gold prices, portending massive catch-up rallying coming in this high-flying sector.
The leading mid-tier-gold-stock benchmark is the GDXJ VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF. With $5.1b in net assets mid-week, it remains the second-largest gold-stock ETF after its big brother GDX. That is dominated by far-larger major gold miners, though there is much overlap between these ETFs’ holdings. Still misleadingly named, GDXJ is overwhelmingly a mid-tier gold-stock ETF with juniors having little weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Today only one of GDXJ’s 25 biggest holdings is a true junior!
Its Q3 output is highlighted in blue in the table below. Juniors not only mine less than 75k ounces per quarter, but their gold output generates over half their quarterly revenues. That excludes streaming and royalty companies that purchase future gold output for big upfront payments used to finance mine-builds, and primary silver miners producing byproduct gold. But mid-tiers often make better investments than juniors.
These gold miners dominating GDXJ offer a unique mix of sizable diversified production, excellent output-growth potential, and smaller market capitalizations ideal for outsized gains. Mid-tiers are less risky than juniors, while amplifying gold uplegs more than majors. So we’ve long specialized in the fundamentally-superior mid-tiers and juniors at Zeal, actively trading these smaller gold miners for a quarter-century now.
With gold blasting higher, this year’s pickings have been good. Our recent realized gains triggered by gold’s overdue and healthy pullback have run as high as +158%! We just started reloading our newsletter trading books this week, adding five fantastic mid-tiers and juniors with imminent big production growth from expansions and mine-builds. GDXJ itself has soared 79.5% higher at best over this past year, big gains!
Yet even they are small compared to historical precedent, really lagging gold. Its monster upleg since early October 2023 has rocketed up 53.1% at best! Before big gold uplegs give up their ghosts, the better mid-tiers and juniors often see their stock prices triple or quadruple. So the best gains in the cream-of-the-crop smaller gold miners are still ahead. Their latest quarterly fundamentals support way-higher stock prices.
For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDXJ’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly mid-tiers, they now account for 65.4% of this ETF’s total weighting. While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding smaller gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector. This research is essential.
This table summarizes the GDXJ top 25’s operational and financial highlights during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDXJ over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their recent GDXJ weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
Back in mid-October before gold miners started reporting Q3 results, I wrote an essay predicting they’d achieve an epic record quarter. That indeed proved correct, with smaller gold miners well-outperforming their larger major peers. Yet despite practically printing money at these lofty gold prices, the smaller gold miners still remain largely-unknown. That should change soon with the huge numbers they are putting up!
These fundamentally-superior smaller miners’ phenomenal Q3 performances trounced those of the major-dominated GDX top 25 I analyzed in depth in last week’s essay. The mid-tiers and juniors’ epic quarter is easier to understand compared to the majors’ still-mostly-great results. That contrast begins with gold miners’ Q3 production. The GDXJ top 25’s collective output sure looks weak, falling 9.0% YoY to 3,075k ounces.
That’s much worse than the GDX top 25’s only slumping 1.4% YoY to 8,491k in Q3. And both shrinkage rates fell way behind global gold mining output according to the World Gold Council. It publishes the best-available worldwide gold fundamental data, which showed total global production actually surged an impressive 5.8% YoY to 31,824k ounces in Q3’24! But GDXJ’s shrinking output is a composition thing.
As this table shows, there’s lots of shuffling among GDXJ’s top component stocks. This ETF’s managers periodically add or remove components for various reasons. A year ago in Q3’23, the heaviest-weighted stock in this mid-tier gold-stock ETF was super-major Kinross Gold. While one of the best larger gold miners with a higher weighting in GDX too, KGC was far too big to include in GDXJ. So it was finally booted.
If KGC’s colossal 585k ounces mined in Q3’23 is replaced with the 26th-largest GDXJ component then, the GDXJ top 25’s aggregate production actually surged 10.0% YoY in Q3’24! That is wildly better than the GDX top 25’s lagging 1.4%-YoY shrinkage. Unlike majors often struggling to overcome depletion, the mid-tiers and juniors are firing on all cylinders on the output front. And this is nothing new for smaller miners...
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4 semanas hace
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 23, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27122 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. As of now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 yet it is trading below last month's close of 27493.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26882 and overhead resistance forming above at 27127. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 6.964%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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4 semanas hace
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 23, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 19, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 234.4k, down 2.1k.
Four weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Gold then dropped the next couple of weeks. Last Thursday, it ticked $2,542 intraday, and that generated buying interest.
Earlier, on October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802, having begun to rally in June at $2,305. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s.
Last Thursday’s defense of $2,540s-50s laid the foundation for this week’s 5.5-percent jump to $2,712/ounce. More gains are likely ahead, with immediate resistance at $2,740s, which was decisively breached on the 6th.
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1 mes hace
Gold Miners’ Q3’24 Fundamentals
By: Adam Hamilton | November 15, 2024
The major gold miners’ latest quarterly results proved epic! Thanks to record gold prices, they achieved record revenues, record bottom-line earnings, and record operating cash flows. Such amazing profits drove down gold-stock valuations to their most-undervalued levels in many years. These super-strong fundamentals combined with gold’s healthy and overdue pullback are creating excellent buying opportunities.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF remains this sector’s dominant benchmark. Birthed way back in May 2006, GDX has parlayed its first-mover advantage into an insurmountable lead. Its $13.2b of net assets mid-week dwarfed the next-largest 1x-long major-gold-miners ETF by nearly 19x! GDX is undisputedly the trading vehicle of choice in this sector, with the world’s biggest gold miners commanding most of its weighting.
Gold-stock tiers are defined by miners’ annual production rates in ounces of gold. Small juniors have little sub-300k outputs, medium mid-tiers run 300k to 1,000k, large majors yield over 1,000k, and huge super-majors operate at vast scales exceeding 2,000k. Translated into quarterly terms, these thresholds shake out under 75k, 75k to 250k, 250k+, and 500k+. Those two largest categories account for over 53% of GDX.
Gold stocks have been correcting hard in recent weeks, exacerbated by gold plunging in the wake of the US elections. Traders view Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs as inflationary, slashing Fed-rate-cut odds. The prospects of higher yields going forward catapulted up the US Dollar Index a massive 2.9% in just six trading days! That shook lose colossal gold-futures selling, hammering gold 6.1% lower since Election Day.
Gold stocks per GDX plunged 11.3% in sympathy, actually making for fairly-mild 1.9x downside leverage to the metal which overwhelmingly drives their profits. Usually GDX tends to amplify material gold moves by 2x to 3x. At worst since late October, gold’s total pullback is running 7.6%. That selloff was overdue and expected. Just a few weeks earlier, I wrote a whole essay analyzing why gold’s selloff risk was high.
At best gold had soared an incredible 35.0% year-to-date, trouncing the S&P 500’s 21.9% gains! That left gold extremely-overbought, and speculators’ gold-futures positioning exceedingly-overextended. So a sentiment-rebalancing selloff on these hyper-leveraged traders normalizing their bets was inevitable. We ratcheted up trailing-stop-loss percentages on our gold-stock trades to prepare, soon realizing big-to-huge gains.
While gold stocks have surged dramatically this year, they still really lagged gold with GDX up 42.2% YTD at best in late October. Gold stocks were starting to catch up with their metal, accelerating towards that 2x-to-3x upside leverage. But GDX’s correction ignited before gold’s, after the world’s largest gold miner reported disappointing and misleading Q3 results. There’s much more below on Newmont’s latest debacle.
Gold stocks’ total correction extended to 19.3% as of mid-week, which is perfectly-normal 2.6x downside leverage to gold. Speculators and investors rushing to buy gold stocks in mid-October as GDX made a dazzling secular breakout and challenged a far-bigger one ought to be licking their chops! Being able to now buy in about 20% cheaper with gold miners printing money in this gold environment is awesome.
For 34 quarters in a row now, I’ve painstakingly analyzed the latest operational and financial results from GDX’s 25-largest component stocks. Mostly super-majors, majors, and larger mid-tiers, they dominate this ETF at 85.0% of its total weighting! While digging through quarterlies is a ton of work, understanding the gold miners’ latest fundamentals really cuts through the obscuring sentiment fogs shrouding this sector.
This table summarizes the operational and financial highlights from the GDX top 25 during Q3’24. These gold miners’ stock symbols aren’t all US listings, and are preceded by their rankings changes within GDX over this past year. The shuffling in their ETF weightings reflects shifting market caps, which reveal both outperformers and underperformers since Q3’23. Those symbols are followed by their current GDX weightings.
Next comes these gold miners’ Q3’24 production in ounces, along with their year-over-year changes from the comparable Q3’23. Output is the lifeblood of this industry, with investors generally prizing production growth above everything else. After are the costs of wresting that gold from the bowels of the earth in per-ounce terms, both cash costs and all-in sustaining costs. The latter help illuminate miners’ profitability.
That’s followed by a bunch of hard accounting data reported to securities regulators, quarterly revenues, earnings, operating cash flows, and resulting cash treasuries. Blank data fields mean companies hadn’t disclosed that particular data as of the middle of this week. The annual changes aren’t included if they would be misleading, like comparing negative numbers or data shifting from positive to negative or vice-versa.
In mid-October well before this latest earnings season got underway, I predicted gold miners’ epic quarter in an essay. That concluded “dazzling record gold prices combined with forecast lower mining costs will catapult unit earnings to astounding levels. They are likely to about double to amazing records, extending gold stocks’ massive-earnings-growth streak to five consecutive quarters.” Indeed that mostly came to pass.
Despite their epic quarter, as long-time readers know I’ve never been a fan of most of the world’s largest gold miners that dominate GDX. They perpetually fail to organically grow their production at their vast operational scales, unable to overcome depletion. They’ve mostly been able to boost output only through expensive acquisitions. And paradoxically their mining costs have been rising faster than their smaller peers’.
So for a quarter-century now, our very-profitable subscription-newsletter gold-stock trading has focused on fundamentally-superior smaller mid-tiers and juniors. Operating fewer gold mines often at lower costs, they are better able to consistently grow production through expansions and new mine-builds. Both their earnings growth and stock-price appreciation have long proven way better than GDX’s super-majors and majors...
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.
The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.
A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.
Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.
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Gold Mining ETF (GDX) Sees Huge Volume Surge
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | November 13, 2024
• Options volume for GDX surpassed 90,000 in the top two contracts
• GDX sports a solid year-to-date lead despite a 10% pullback this quarter
Market volatility stemming from the presidential election, geopolitical conflicts, interest rates, as well as dollar and Treasury yield fluctuations have sent gold prices on a wild ride this year. While the yellow metal was last seen lower amid a surge in the dollar index, it wasn't long ago it was stringing record highs, as traders sought a safe haven from instability.
VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) was last seen 1.3% lower to trade at $35.63, but still sports a 15.1% year-to-date lead after hitting an Oct. 22, four-year high of $44.29. Though the exchange-traded fund (ETF) is on track for its fourth-straight loss, it has maintained its popularity with options traders.
At the International Securities Exchange (ISE), Cboe Options Exchange (CBOE), and NASDAQ OMX PHLX (PHLX), GDX's 50-day call/put volume ratio of 5.55 sits higher than 82% of readings from the past 12 months, indicating calls are getting picked up at a faster-than-usual rate.
Just yesterday, volume at the January, 2025 42- and 47-strike calls -- the top two options contracts -- totaled 91,033. Positions were being opened at the March 21, 2025 38 call, which points to long-term optimism. It's also worth noting that after GDX's 10% quarterly drawdown, the ETF now sports a 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 16.1, deep in "oversold" territory and indicating a short-term bounce could be imminent.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 255.3k, down 23.3k.
Last week, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. It was a sign of exhaustion, and the metal gave back two percent this week to $2,695/ounce. From gold bugs’ perspective, the good thing is that Thursday’s low of $2,650 was bought, with the 50-day ($2,662) breached intraday but defended by close.
On the daily, it is possible gold rallies a bit more, but it remains way overbought on the weekly.
Before this week’s decline, the yellow metal rallied relentlessly from June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts – $2,610s seven weeks ago, $2,540s-50s eight weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August. These are all potential supports now.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 2, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27492 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Prominently, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27291 and overhead resistance forming above at 27520. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 28018 to 27369. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 28018. Here the market is trading weak gravitating more toward support than resistance. We have technical support lying at 27762 which we are currently trading below implying the market is very weak. This infers that this level will now be resistance. Our Major Channel Support lies at 26366 and a break of that level would be a bearish indication for this market.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 3 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 2, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 29, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 278.7k, down 17.6k.
Gold just flashed first signs of exhaustion. This week’s weekly gravestone doji showed up after six up weeks in seven, falling 0.2 percent to $2,749/ounce and posting a new high of $2,802 on Wednesday.
The metal has rallied relentlessly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Six weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
Before the first layer of support at $2,610s gets tested, gold bugs’ mettle is likely to be tested just north of $2,700.
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Bull of the Day: Agnico Eagle Mines (AEG)
By: Zacks Investment Research | October 30, 2024
Although it hasn’t received the airtime it deserves, gold prices have been rocketing higher this year. With more new record highs this week, gold has outperformed the S&P 500 by a significant margin year-to-date and since the start of 2023. Not surprisingly, gold miner stocks like Agnico Eagle Mines (AEG) have also performed well this year.
Agnico Eagle Mines has everything a gold investor could ask for, including a rock-solid balance sheet, strong stock price momentum, huge earnings growth forecasts and a reasonable valuation. Furthermore, the stock boasts a top Zacks Rank, significantly increasing the odds of a further near-term rally.
Image Source: TradingView
Powerful Earnings Revision Trend in AEG
As the price of gold rallies, gold mining stocks enjoy immediate expansion in their margins, Agnico Eagle Mines included. Today, AEG has a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating, reflected by significant revisions higher to its earnings estimates.
Analysts have nearly unanimously upgraded earnings forecasts over the last two months, with FY25 earnings estimates jumping by a hefty 23.4% over the last 60 days. FY24 earnings estimates have also been revised higher by 9.9% and are projected to climb 79.8% YoY to $4.01 per share. Over the next three to five years EPS are expected to grow at an impressive 28.2% annually.
It is also worth noting that the Mining – Gold Industry currently sits in the Top 4% (9 out of 251) of the Zacks Industry Rank, and that the Zacks Earnings ESP is projecting the next earnings period to be analysts estimates by 5.82%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
AEG Stock Technical Setup
Rounding the compelling investment opportunity in Agnico Eagle Mines stock is a technical trading setup. Over the last week or so, the price action has been forming a bull flag from which investors can easily measure a trade.
If the stock can trade above the $88.75 level, it would signal a technical breakout. Alternatively, if the stock loses the $86 level of support, it may be worth waiting for another opportunity.
Image Source: TradingView
Should Investors Buy Agnico Eagle Mines Shares?
Agnico Eagle Mines is currently trading at a one year forward earnings multiple 0f 21.6x, which is below the broad market average and well below its 10-year median of 43x. Additionally, with earnings expected to grow 28.2% annually, AEM has an attractive PEG ratio of 0.77, indicating a discount based on the metric.
For investors seeking exposure to the gold market, Agnico Eagle Mines is a powerful way to express the trade. AEG has a reasonable valuation, top Zacks Rank and even pays a 1.8% dividend.
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Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 26, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 22, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 296.2k, up 9.8k.
There is no stopping the yellow metal, rallying this week 0.9 percent to $2,755/ounce, tagging $2,773 on Wednesday. This was the third up week in a row – and sixth in last seven.
Gold has rallied strongly since June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts. Five weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, it broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, gold broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
If one were to nitpick, the daily RSI has made lower highs even as gold went on to add $100 in the past month.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 26, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27546 and is trading up about 32% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27726 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Solely focusing on only the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 27378 and overhead resistance forming above at 27633. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 21st at 27726, which was up 20 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27726 to 27221. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27726 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27726. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 27474 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 7 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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Gold Stocks’ Secular Breakout
By: Adam Hamilton | October 25, 2024
The gold miners’ stocks just achieved a rare secular breakout. This huge technical milestone fueled by record gold levels reflects sector sentiment growing more bullish. That is pushing gold stocks closer to the crucial psychological tipping point where more-mainstream traders increasingly chase their strong gains. Multi-year highs generate broader interest, attracting more capital inflows accelerating gold-stock upside.
The GDX VanEck Gold Miners ETF has long been gold stocks’ leading sector benchmark and trading vehicle. This was the original pioneering gold-stock ETF, born way back in May 2006. GDX’s first-mover advantage has grown into an insurmountable lead, commanding net assets of $16.8b midweek. That nearly doubles the 13 next-largest gold-stock ETFs’ combined net assets! GDX is this sector’s juggernaut.
It just enjoyed a rather-remarkable nine consecutive trading days of rallying, blasting 13.7% higher in mid-October! That was fueled by a parallel big 5.3% gold surge, which the major gold stocks dominating GDX amplified by a good 2.6x. Historically GDX has usually leveraged material gold moves by 2x to 3x. While certainly an impressive win streak, it was only its last few days that proved important technical milestones.
Gold rapidly surged to extremely-overbought levels in late September, dramatically upping the odds for a rebalancing selloff. I analyzed gold’s high selloff risk in-depth in an early-October essay. That pullback indeed got to work, although it was retarded by soaring geopolitical risks after Iran lobbed hundreds of ballistic missiles into Israel! Still gold retreated a modest 2.4% over a couple weeks into early October.
That dragged GDX a proportional 6.8% lower, for larger 2.9x downside leverage. That selloff started from this sector ETF’s upleg-to-date peak of $41.64, leaving GDX well lower. But gold stocks were quick to claw back their losses, with GDX rallying back to $41.49 last Thursday the 17th. Both levels remained barely decisively above GDX’s last major peak of $40.87 in mid-April 2022, yet still in that resistance zone.
A decisive breakout is exceeding an old closing high by 1%+, which happened on September 24th when GDX closed over $41.28. But technical analysis is subjective, with most support and resistance lines on charts drawn by hand. So from a visual standpoint on a multi-year chart, gold stocks still looked to be near major upper resistance around GDX $41. They could easily still retreat, forming a double topping.
This gold-stock-technicals chart of recent years illuminates that $41 resistance zone. In order for that minor breakout mathematically to become major psychologically, GDX had to blast considerably higher into new chart territory. New highs had to look visually-striking, which finally happened a week ago on Friday the 18th. GDX soared a huge 4.0% higher that day, indisputably achieving a major secular breakout!
It was the best kind too, happening despite no real news. Gold did rally 1.1% to its third record high in a row of $2,721, but there was no Fed-dovish key economic data to drive that. Mounting geopolitical fears heading into a weekend likely played a role, as the world anxiously awaited Israel’s crippling retaliation against Iran for that ballistic-missile barrage. GDX’s big 4.0% up day amplified gold’s by a huge 3.7x.
Precious-metals sentiment lurched sizably to shifting bullish, thanks to gold’s defiant October rally and that big, round, psychologically-important $2,700 level being exceeded. Gold really should have sold off considerably this month. Leading into October, gold was not only extremely-overbought but speculators’ gold-futures longs had hit their 5th-highest levels on record! So massive mean-reversion selling was likely...
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3 Gold Stocks Surging on Bullish Sector Stance
By: Schaeffer's Investment Research | October 22, 2024
• Canaccord Genuity lifted its long-term price outlook for gold and silver
• All 3 stocks marked fresh highs last session
Canaccord Genuity praised commodities today, raising its long-term price outlook for gold and silver and lifting its price objective on several mining names, including Canada-listed stocks Kinross Gold Corp (NYSE:KGC) and Barrick Gold Corp (NYSE:GOLD) and U.S.-based Newmont Corporation (NYSE:NEM). Below, let's take a look at how these stocks are responding.
NEM is leading the bunch, last seen up 1.7% to trade at $58.54, after the firm lifted its price target to $66 from $59. Shares yesterday hit a two-year high of $58.71 after bouncing off a pullback to the 40-day moving average, and are now trading firmly above former resistance at $56. In the last 12 months, NEM added over 52%.
KGC notched a roughly 12-year high of $10.82 last session after rallying off a floor of support at the $9.20 level. The security is up 1.2% to trade at $10.67 at last glance, and now sports an impressive 99% year over year lead, with a 76.3% gain amassed just this year.
GOLD was last seen up 1.5% to trade at $21.17, fresh off its own two-year peak of $21.34 in the last session. The 60-day moving average helped fuel those gains, which contributed to the stock's 27.9% year-over-year lead.
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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 19, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 27300 and is trading up about 31% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Currently, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new high exceeding the previous month's high reaching thus far 27378 while it has not broken last month's low so far of 25027. Nevertheless, this market is still trading above last month's high of 27087.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bullish position at this time with the underlying support beginning at 26947.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 14th at 27378, which was up 19 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 27378 to 26544. Nevertheless, the market is still trading upward more toward resistance than support. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27378 made 0 week ago. This market has made a new historical high this past week reaching 27378. Here the market is trading positive gravitating more toward resistance than support. We have technical support lying at 26596 which we are still currently trading above for now.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 1 week overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading above last month's high showing some strength.
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DiscoverGold
2 meses hace
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 19, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 15, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 286.4k, up 8.3k.
After three tentative weekly candles – shooting star, spinning top and dragonfly doji – gold yet again shone this week, up a solid two percent to $2,730/ounce, which set a fresh high.
The yellow metal has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, it enjoyed one after another breakout.
Four weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20. This followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week’s breakout followed a defense of $2,610s last week.
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2 meses hace
Gold-Stock Tipping Point 2
By: Adam Hamilton | October 18, 2024
The gold miners’ stocks look to be getting even closer to a crucial psychological tipping point. After years of being mired in apathy, this small contrarian sector appears poised to finally return to popularity. When traders flock to gold stocks to chase their upside momentum, massive uplegs ensue where doublings-plus aren’t uncommon. And across entire bull markets, total gold-stock gains can exceed an order of magnitude.
Eleven weeks ago, I penned my original gold-stock-tipping-point essay. My thesis then was gold stocks were on the verge of being noticed by much-broader groups of speculators and investors. They would increasingly pile in to ride mounting sector gains, catapulting gold stocks way higher. Gold miners remain seriously undervalued relative to these record prevailing gold prices, they need to mean revert and normalize.
Much has happened in the several months since, making this case even stronger. The day that essay was published, gold and the leading GDX gold-stock ETF were trading at $2,436 and $36.48. Gold’s last nominal record close of $2,465 was seen several weeks earlier, while GDX’s upleg-to-date best then ran $39.28. It really felt like traders’ interest in gold and its miners’ stocks was growing, a very-bullish omen.
While feelings aren’t empirical, decades of experience hones them into valuable indicators. For a quarter-century now, I’ve been a financial-newsletter guy researching, writing about, and actively trading this gold-stock sector. This is my 1,144th weekly web essay since mid-2000, and I’ve written 291 monthly and 1,118 weekly paid-subscription newsletters in that long span! Active real-world gold-stock trading was a big part.
Both newsletters have recommended and realized 1,531 stock trades as of the end of Q3’24. All those including all losers have averaged excellent +16.0% annualized realized gains! That’s roughly double the long-term stock-market average. After spending the vast majority of my professional life deeply immersed in this realm, my experience and knowledge is world-class. Plenty of signs now point to improving psychology.
Chief among them is gold and GDX continuing to power higher on balance despite formidable challenges. Since that original essay, gold has achieved 14 new nominal record closes including midweek’s latest one at $2,673! That’s another big 9.8% rally despite gold recently facing high odds for a considerable selloff to rebalance sentiment and technicals. Strength contrary to probable weakness reveals shifting psychology.
In early October I wrote an entire essay analyzing gold’s high selloff risk. Two dominant factors fueled that, including gold blasting up to extreme overboughtness. That was driven by massive gold-futures buying by speculators, leaving their positioning way-overextended and their likely capital firepower for buying exhausted. Plenty of catalysts loomed that could spawn cascading gold-futures selling slamming gold.
Specs look to the US dollar’s fortunes to guide their wildly-leveraged and super-risky gold-futures trading. And the US Dollar Index in turn is often bullied around by major US economic-data releases. Depending on how they come in relative to economists’ forecasts, they can really move futures-implied expected Fed rate cuts. Those seemed impossibly-high in early August, at 116 basis points in 2024 then another 100bp in 2025!
That was almost nine quarter-point cuts over 16 months, pretty optimistic. While the FOMC did birth this latest cutting cycle with an outsized 50bp slashing in mid-September, those expected Fed rate cuts have indeed retreated on better-than-expected key economic data. Heavy gold-futures selling has often been spawned in recent years on upside surprises in US jobs, CPI inflation, PPI inflation, and retail sales.
All four latest reads proved Fed-hawkish and boosted the US dollar, which should’ve unleashed big gold-futures dumping! September’s nonfarm payrolls soared 254k, massively beating the +150k expected on top of +72k jobs in past-two-month revisions. All four of the September CPI’s key metrics came in 0.1% hotter than forecasts, and two of the four PPI ones printed 0.2% above consensus. These meant slower rate cuts.
Indeed by Wednesday expected Fed rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 had slumped to 45bp more and 99bp. As of midweek, the USDX had surged 3.2% in several weeks which is a big-and-sharp rally for it. Yet during that time with everything aligning out of favor for gold, it still managed to rally 0.4%! While gold did suffer a minor 2.4% pullback into early October, it rapidly rebounded to that latest record close Wednesday.
September retail sales were released Thursday morning before I started writing this essay, also proving a Fed-hawkish upside surprise. So this past month’s major economic data was certainly dollar-bullish and gold-bearish due to deteriorating expected Fed rate cuts. Yet gold powered higher anyway, likely on big buying from Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian brides’ families. Gold is really defying the odds.
Gold’s defiant march to more record highs is putting it on more traders’ radars. Financial-media coverage is becoming more-frequent and more-bullish, building awareness. Even American stock investors, who have mostly ignored gold’s monster 46.9% upleg over this past year, are increasingly nibbling in GLD and IAU gold-ETF shares. While small, their daily gold-bullion-holdings builds on capital inflows have been relentless.
So gold looks to be nearing its own psychological tipping point, where gains accelerate sparking a fear-of-missing-out rush to pile in. Seasonal tailwinds will soon turn favorable again too. Gold tends to suffer a seasonal pullback from late September to late October, before its biggest seasonal rally powers higher into late February. That has averaged 8.4% over 20 of the last 23 years, which were gold’s bull-market ones.
If gold’s early-October pullback low holds and this year’s winter rally merely proves average, gold would shoot over $2,825 in coming months! And as goes gold, so go its miners’ stocks. They ultimately act like leveraged plays on gold, with the majors dominating GDX usually amplifying their metal’s upside by 2x to 3x. Indeed GDX has rallied with gold recently, achieving another bull-market high of $41.64 in late September.
GDX has powered 60.7% higher over this past year, a good upleg. But it remains quite weak relative to gold, with mere 1.3x amplification. That’s way behind historical precedent. Gold’s last similar monster uplegs both peaked in 2020, averaging 41.4% gains. GDX averaged great 105.4% uplegs during those, doublings-plus at 2.5x leverage! GDX should already be up 95% to 140% in today’s monster gold upleg.
So gold stocks have lots more mean-reversion normalization rallying left to do even at today’s gold levels, let alone where this bull is heading. And GDX just has to inch a little higher to achieve a major technical breakout, which will hasten that crucial psychological tipping point arriving. Forging decisively above $42 ought to fuel increasing and enthusiastic financial-media gold-stock coverage, building greed-driven momentum.
When GDX hit $41.64 in late September, those were gold stocks’ best levels in 4.0 years. As I’m writing this draft midday Thursday, GDX is trading even higher at $41.86. The last time GDX closed over $42 was in mid-September 2020, six weeks after a powerful gold-stock upleg catapulted GDX 134.1% higher to $44.48. Exceed that, and this leading gold-stock benchmark will be at its best levels since January 2013!
Traders love chasing winners, and the financial media love to cover them. Decade-plus gold-stock highs less than 9% above midweek levels should be achieved soon, really boosting popular awareness of gold miners’ upside momentum. That dynamic can quickly become self-feeding, ultimately culminating in a popular speculative mania. It really feels like that process is accelerating, that sentiment tipping point is nearing...
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2 meses hace
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | October 12, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of October 8, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 278.2k, down 21.8k.
Three weeks ago, in a shooting star week, gold printed $2,709 intraday before heading lower. It has had a powerful rally since June when it tagged $2,305. In between, the yellow metal enjoyed one after another breakout.
Three weeks ago, after five sessions of sideways action at $2,610s, gold broke out on September 20; this followed a breakout in the prior week at $2,540s-50s after several unsuccessful attempts since mid-August. Prior to this, after more than three months of sideways action, it broke out at $2,440s-50s in August.
This week, after coming under pressure in the first three sessions, bids showed up Thursday at $2,610s, with an intraday low of $2,619, ending the week up 0.3 percent to $2,676/ounce and forming a weekly dragonfly doji. Having defended the first layer of support, gold bugs deserve the benefit of the doubt in the sessions ahead.
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DiscoverGold
2 meses hace
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | October 12, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26763 and is trading up about 29% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Factually, this market has been rising for 11 months going into October suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26724 and overhead resistance forming above at 26894. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of September 23rd at 27087, which was up 16 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and yet it recovered to close above the previous week's close of 26678. We are still trading above the Weekly Momentum Indicators so we have not undermined critical support as of yet. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 27087 made 2 weeks ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 23386 and 27582. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of September 23rd has been important Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 25704 made back during the week of August 19th. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of July 15th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals.
Right now, the market is above momentum on our weekly models hinting this is still bullish for now as well as trend, long-term trend, and cyclical strength. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 22 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23030 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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