Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA) Opciones

🙏Thank you dewophile.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge here. And to be fair, his term was clinical benefits not necessarily mean meeting primary endpoint in the study.

Yes. Odd indeed, although iirc, they later found 935 failed the meet primary because healthy patients usually recovered themselves after day 2 anyways so adminstering them the drug after 48 hrs wasn’t useful … or something to that effect

if now even PED and high risk, which would have weaker immune, also failed to show clinical benefits, that would put the whole RSV program in doubt as one can easily imply 235 will run into same issue as well - Which would make his answer even more odd and somewhat foolish.

I linked to a prior post where I sort of answered that
I would guess divincenzo would say something along the lines of:

1. zeli failed in rsvp bc VL were already dropping by the time tx was initiated and all patients were already on the mend by the time drug was started
2. fusion inhibitors (except ziresovir) failed because they can't target the large number of already infected cells when you start treatment later during the course if infection versus challenge study patients
3. lumicitabine was underpowered because they had to halt the study due to safety

These are mostly things the company has already said by the way, but it is far from a slam dunk that zeli will succeed where others have failed

Dewophile, let’s suppose Dr. DeVincenzo was pushed back by a response similar to what you just provided here. What would be his retort, if any? Regards…

Apparently, a positive / safe RSVPEDs trial will be a milestone event.

re peds data for some other antivirals including lumicitabine

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175293176

The odd thing is that there were several failures in this space of drugs that clearly have good antiviral activity. The analyst just didn’t push back. I’m fact zelicapavir itself failed in the standard risk RSVP study. The most notable failure was Lumicitabine which JNJ picked up from Alios which had challenge data on par with zelicapavir , was a replication inhibitor too (Nuke targeting polymerase), and failed to show an effect in their peds study. The drug was terminated for safety but there is a paper summarizing the clinical data among those that did get enrolled.

(I’m going to put the question back to you…)

Yes.. if he had seen the data then and the data was not good, he absolulely wouldn't say that... as then the answer for that question would now be Zelicapavir...

2B isn’t entirely impossible. Solid RSV data and a nice patent settlement would bring us there.

Some dated info on Dr. John P DeVincenzo:
(I’m going to put the question back to you…)

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210105005335/en/Enanta-Pharmaceuticals-Announces-the-Appointment-of-John-P.-DeVincenzo-M.D.-as-Vice-President-of-Translational-Virology

Extended hours volume 926K

Drug development is hard eom

and would be rewarding I guess.. otherwise, why we are here :)

Nice to see 895,546 block trade done after hours.Will see if the non-sense dumping continues into next week.

Earning should be out next Monday.
Based on an event alert from my brokerage.

Drug development is hard eom

8B, I thought Enanta would be an 8B dollar company by now. I can accept that I was wrong, but I would like to know what others understood that I did not. All of those big targets, antibiotic resistant bacteria, NASH, PBC, HCV, HBV, RSV, development of unique assays; I was really enthusiastic. Now I just want it to be a 2B company. At least I did not go for the RVNC thing, I know a lot of people made money here and there as long as they got in and out at the right moments.

I am thankful that I could learn from this experience without any catastrophic outcomes.

That would be tragic!!
…blue has 3 fda approved drugs*, and c-ste blew thru billion$ over last decade (not unusual to burn but seriously), barely any revenue generated considering one of the indications (sickle cell) has a ~$3mm price tag!! Now company begging shareholders to approve 1:15/20 clock back so they can continue to pay themselves handsomely…smh

*57 patient starts completed to date in 2024 (35 ZYNTEGLO, 17 LYFGENIA, 5 SKYSONA).

$50/sh—>EV of ~$900M, which is actually quite modest. The arithmetic is in #msg-174935596 and #msg-174935610.

I was responsible for a portion of that :- )

>> at best an offer north of 50 dollars which is what really good RSV data would probably garner. Good luck

That’s exactly why i am holding on.

Dont want to wake up one day to see i missed out the buyout, and downside is very limited with the cash cushion. So its like a free call opton on RSV.

Obviously, the market doesnt see what we see.

Volume picked up to 237K today, the most since 8 October.

So the opportunity cost to buy now is much lower than a year ago.

yes you don't need to keep money sunk while waiting a year for trials to read out etc. There should be visibility on the lawsuit and even the adult study in 6 months or so, so no matter what all the cards are turned over soon. My thinking is at worst you have a well funded early stage immunology company, at best an offer north of 50 dollars which is what really good RSV data would probably garner. Good luck

Fair point, just now many unknowns are going to be known next few months. So the opportunity cost to buy now is much lower than a year ago.

yeah I agree but it went down to low 8s last year when there was more cash in the bank so it is not like we haven't seen this script before
I added 10K yesterday at 9.1 average, and 6k so far today at 8.8 fwiw

Never seen a company with such a promising program and yet selling way before current asset values.

Whoever dumping the shares day in and out arent doing it because of fundamentals. Imo

Added again, that’s it for me.
It is ridiculously cheap but already over allocated by fair bit.

Ready for partnership or buyout announcement now LOL.

And pls if the RSV is bad, just be very bad so they will just stop the program and focus on immunology.

Still will have significant upside but less so if that happens.

Good luck everyone

RSV season

Looks like Florida and Georgia are in full swing for RSV now. Texas also has a high rate of test positivity. Hopefully the adult HR study will complete enrollment soon.

https://www.cdc.gov/nrevss/php/dashboard/index.html

As a reminder the only adult HR data w zelicapavir is the terminated transplant study. very small N, but the effect on VL was stark with a -7 log decrease in the treatment arm versus -2 log in the placebo arm. On the clinical side 1 our of 4 on placebo developed lower respiratory tract infection versus 0 out of 5 on treatment.

https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04633187?term=edp-938&aggFilters=status:ter&rank=1&tab=results

For sure a fund or funds are selling out while we dont have enough buyers to step out


Got some more today. Dont see much risk buying here but i thought the same and loaded up at 11s

Painful

Looks like Clubber Lang made the right call for what is ahead for ENTA shareholders.

Yes back to pretty much all time low

Painful

Unbelievable. Down from 13 to 9 last month or so. Only news during the same period was the great challenge data. Feel like a repeat of year end last year indeed

Yes it can take time to get all the data together but this is a small 90 patient study with viral load as primary endpoint I would assume they have at least that top like data for some time. I would think a few weeks not months to scrub data and unlock database but perhaps someone more knowledgeable can chime in

While on vacation here in Maryland, noticed that ENTA has a new patent regarding prevention of coronavirus viruses. Might be the rationale for pre-market up-trades. Please check Enanta patents as of November 19.

Isnt it normal to tak at least 2 to 3 months to do data analysis etc before doing a presentation?

So they might be just not ready yet?

My dream case is a buyout so maybe they are just busy negotiating a deal so no CC and no data presentation yet

Expect an earnings report on Monday 25 Nov and a conference call in December to discuss RSVPEDS trial results et al. IMO ENTA mgt has been sitting on (good) results for several weeks now. I do not see the logic of sitting on bad results. I see a follow through of good results for zelicapavir in the PEDS population.

And the problem is volume is super light especially on a down day

So whoever selling is selling into an vaccum

Less than 50k shares so far

Just no buyers

I don’t get it either but stocks overshoot in both directions all the time amd enta has been out of favor a long time now

Not sure why so much sellers day in and day out even the shares are selling below net cash and less than half of cash plus royalty value

And short interest is up as well it seems

The bounce and uptrend will be awesome ;)

Yes I think management will follow the last quarter's playbook and release a PR w earnings, no call, and guide towards a call with data release (peds and/or immunology update). So while not having a call is generally bearish, in this case I just think they are not bothering to hold a call w analysts until there is something meaningful to discuss

Gotcha, so your guess is ENTA will not have an earnings call for the 4th quarter and end of year, but management will wait till the end of December and then have a call on the PEDS trial results? Thanks.

Seems to be heading back down now. Declining to hold a call will generally do that, but last quarter there were no unpleasant surprises so hopefully this time will be the same

Yes, I understood your post. Best wishes my friend. ENTA had a nice turnaround this am…

I'm not suggesting anyone trade on inside info. I'm just suggesting there is flexibility in when they release data, and 2025 options tend to be priced late December

They cannot trade on inside info… that’s the bottomline //..\\
The tea leaves say ENTA goes up from here.

Imagine they get themselvesn some cheaply priced options, then right after they release good data and get a nice buyout - would they get into insider trading trouble from SEC?

Do they even allow to grant themselves if they are negotiating a buyout deal?

I am sure they will meet all the guidance for data this quarter, but it is less likely to be next Monday if there is no call IMO (I was serious about waiting until end of the quarter for options - i mean if you were management and were sitting on good data why not? Reg FD gives you plenty of leeway)

lol…

I hope the Q release will say they are looking for strategic options for the company due to sluggish stock price

I thought they were going to announce a new program under immunology this year too, so was expecting a info packed call.

I don’t see a PR so probably safe to say no call w earnings next week. So following playbook from last quarter will probably hold a call w peds data figuring not much to discuss otherwise.
Management could try and wait for late q4 after options priced