Verona Pharma Plc (VRNA) Opciones

Probably a moot point. If it's a 200 billion dollar asset over time the most big pharma will pay is 20b. And they will take it sooner rather than later. Maybe within the next 2 yrs.

Pricing is the US is pretty sweet - ROW not so much. If bicyclical then the motion will be elliptical.

Does anyone have thoughts on yesterday's presentation? I read the slides and come away with the impression that Verona can serve 50% of the market with the focus on 80% of the HCPs intent to Prescribe Ohtuvayre.

With $1.1 billion in sales for each !% or 86K patients, those are BIG numbers down the road as Mega and Hoskuld shared earlier this week.

Just search fintel Duquesne position of 680k shares you can validate this on multiple sites. Use ai in your searches lol

Mega, article is behind a pay-wall for CNBC, so can't see it.

I think he will buy more ... sooner, rather than later.

It is in process. Mixup at doctors office. Verona and Acaria have been very supportive and helpful. Should be straightened out today.

Roger, it appears that folks there liked what they heard as well as Druckenmiller's $20 million purchase would have encourage others to buy now. [I did not find anything, either. Possibly, later today it will be available.]

BTW, how is your situation? Have you received it?

I thought the presentation was to be webcast and found on the investor tab. I didn't find it this morning at 0630. Anyone else?

Verona Pharma Announces December 2024 Investor Conference Participation

https://www.veronapharma.com/news/verona-pharma-announces-december-2024-investor-conference-participation/

Not the PR I was expecting for this morning ... hoping for data being shown today at Jefferies conference.

Mega, great find. He is a top-notch investor.

This guy Druckenmiller bought $20 mil worth vrna last month. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/18/druckenmiller-bought-regional-banks-but-a-healthcare-pick-is-his-biggest-bet.html

It's listed in a fund he manages. Duquesne.

PR in morning before NYSE opens?

Especially if soc in asthma and label expansion seasonal allergies... then it's worth is really high for that spring pollen pop. If international then it will be a bicyclical which would smooth the revenue curve. Lots of if statements of course.

Right - if SOC then this blows up in a good way.

On November 19th, possibly updates on scripts//sales ...

Verona Pharma to Present at Jefferies London Healthcare Conference

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-present-jefferies-london-070000088.html

Hoskuld, any thing new on the scripts? Tough day yesterday.

I'm seeing a lot of soc references in the commentary from the analysts and physicians networks. If that happens in asthma and copd it's 20 billion per month. Obviously that's a long shot but it's possible in 10 yrs. That's the scary thing.

LOL I like your sign off! I don't think most COPD patients will switch to ohtuvayre but will just add Oh (steroids are pretty cheap.) Add 250,000 bronchiectasis patients to probably 1.5m COPD patients and those add up to some immense numbers. Maybe I lack imagination, but I don't think $100b is in the cards - maybe $20b if every single thing goes well.

New valuation of vrna at 218 per share per takeover advocate specialist Caligan.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/09/caligan-takes-a-stake-in-verona-pharma-sees-opportunity-to-generate-more-value.html

I personally feel this estimate is way low. If a big part 4 million copd patients on steroids are switched over to ohtuvayre as fda is pushing, plus other combos in a progressive disease scenario (meaning eventually all copd patients will need something else to supplement their therapy) you're looking at 3300 per 3 month supply or 13 billion per quarter. Double that for the 1 million fibrosis patients plus asthmatic patients once approved, and that's 100 bil per yr + without international or other label expansion. Fairly safe to say it's a 250 billion dollar asset in 10 yrs all imo.

I'd put fair value at 2000 per share minimum. But what do I know I'm just a pirate. Ohtuvayrrrg!

And scripts are trending up in a big way - recently they have been doubling every 4 weeks.

Insider purchases that appear to be about 200 grand worth, possible exercises of options but marked as acquired nov 6

Why the pop over the last 90 minutes or so?

Hi PW! Scripts will just tell us the trend - which is strong right now - but cannot give us the absolute #s...which are about 2.5x-3x the IMS script data. I think the company would consider a buyout at the right price - IMO $100 right now would be OK based on the trend and the upside is huge from there.

Thank you for your reply.

As to 1), will we learn of those higher revenues directly from Verona or indirectly via the weekly script info?

For 2), are the company's actions geared towards a take-out soon or later when more revenue sources are likely? or, will Glaxo and AZ jump the gun and go after Verona now that revenue is coming in strong for a sensational product?

Once again, thank you, Hoskuld.

I think there are 2 catalysts:

1. The continuous catalyst of higher and higher revenues and

2. Acquisition by Glaxo or AstraZeneca etc.

It will take a while for Bronchiectasis trial results but those will help, too.

Hoskuld, thanks for your post, to which I agree. What are the next catalysts for the stock ... or we wait until next year for Q4 and total 2024 numbers?

TYIA

Hi Powerwalker. These were great results. The actually scripts are much much higher than the IMS scripts indicate. This is trending to be a blockbuster by the end of next year. VRNA is going to be one of those big winners - and because it is now backed up by revenue, it is far less risky now from a PPS pov.

Verona Pharma Reports Third Quarter 2024 Financial Results and Provides Corporate Update

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/verona-pharma-reports-third-quarter-070000243.html

One has to like that October sales were HIGHER than Q3's.

Hoskuld, have you seen any numbers?

TYIA

All my best to you Roger. Noticed the earnings which is always on thursdays is now on Monday. Can't help but wonder if Ligand wants a bigger stake than just low single digit royalty on ohtuvayre. Though a takeout by azn is possible I think ligand all stock deal or 5 to 10% buy in is far more likely.

Roger, that will be great. God bless you and your family. Hopefully, you are among the new script numbers for next week.

Hopefully next week. Thanks for asking. 

Roger, thank you for the article. How is your pursuit to utilize ensifentrine going?

https://share.newsbreak.com/9lxcziaz

Happy to see this. 

Thank you, Hoskuld. Looking forward to next Monday, November 4th.

Did we know the next weekly oct 18 script info yet?

Sometimes it is difficult to say what option trades indicate - options are often part of hedging strategies. I am bullish on VRNA but these options sales/purchases could signify different expectations or similar expectations...who knows?

It looks as if someone (not me) is interested in the March 2025 $30 calls. There were 90 contracts traded yesterday and 40 today. Hope the buyer is right!

We should have 10/18 and 10/24 script data by then...

Thank you, Hoskuld.

Verona cc on 11/4 with Q3 stats ... hopefully, it is a good sign being first thing on a Monday morning. They are anxious to talk!

Yes - 324 week ending 10/11

Hoskuld, does that mean the scripts are over 300? Higher?

TYIA

Scripts are trending up strongly now - more than 3x 4 weeks ago.

IMO $70-$100 by the end of 2025.

All the best, Roger.

I sent message via its web site over the weekend asking about Marketing here in the States. I'll let you know when I hear back from them.

Still in process of getting it. Delay is on my end with my Dr. Should be resolved next month with new doc. I can tell you that Verona reached out to me almost immediately after my inquiry in August and have texted and emailed since. They have been very responsive. Very positive feelings about this company. 

So, Roger, are you using Ohtuvayre? If so, is it meeting your expectations? TYIA

Acaria Health is one of the fulfillment pharmacies. They are handling me.

Roger, Hoskuld has access to such data but did not specify the numbers. See post #214.

Do. you have a link to your info by any chance? Release,  conference,  etc? TIA