Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAM) Cotización

Over the period 2008 to 2012, it became easy to assess that Fannie and Freddie were not going away, even with the best efforts of the TBTFs and the politicians. A person who studies the stock market like Ackman made that assessment and invest accordingly. But so did you and me. In the ensuing 12 years, his influence has meant nothing; strangely similar to our influence.
He's not Moses coming down from the mount. He's a hedge fund manager, and a classic example.

Done and retweeted

DJT wants CASH

Others are telling him - I am sure dozens !! - to squash common to 1% by converting the SP/LP to common and then Executive owns 99% of F and F and will issues an SPO for 200-300B CASH to GOV

Ackman - needs a way to show DJT 200B ++ or Ackman might as well not show up

Ackman has decided - right or wrong or whatever - that he can convince DJT to kill the 200B that others argue is paid and to more easily get his 200B via Warrants

Ackman will not try and leave DJT without 200B new cash --- he is not that stupid

Gov gets to exercise the WTS as they (Treasury) negotiated for them and won

NOWHERE (I hope) will you see me say what the GOV did was correct . I understand how in times of MASSIVE fear due to the mess that TBTF banks caused that GOV over stepped using national emergency as both excuse and rationale

The agreement between Treasury and F and F calls for Treasury to get WTS to use as it wishes

One can try and argue that everything was false AND KNOWINGLY false !!! ---- but right now those WTS are owned by the GOV to use as they wish

What is is -- and I am not saying it is fair or just . The whole conservatorship and its lasting 15 years is IMO wrong and embarrassing in a true democracy . Yet - the warrants were issued and are legit - IMO

I just did.👍

It's hard to read Ackman's mind, but it's good to remember that he generally hits for the fences. His FNMA & FMCC investment, without warrants and SPS, could be the greatest all time. Attaching an article about how he made money during Covid.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/antoinegara/2020/03/25/billionaire-bill-ackman-100-fold-return-on-coronavirus-hedge-2-billion/

X link to set reminder for Ackman Space call.
https://x.com/billackman/status/1874134352696909935?s=46&t=VcFxDZRhIQTg6a6x1QQawA

"Then let the shareholders have their day in court."

That's more scary than Friday the 13th, Halloween, and all that genre!

He benefits from the warrant not being executed too. Not just me. He also gets 31 per share vs 140 per share for his current commons..  

Trump is on the toob

"There is a reason. It is not legal!"

Correct . . . but when in the last decade or so has the law made any difference with corruption running rampant?

"Ackmann cannot say it out loud, as he will be called a greedy hedge fund, trying to milk the tax payer and not worried about safety and soundness blah bla blah."

LOL! I see him as a hyena around a fresh kil by the lions, I seriously doubt he cares if you get a piece of the meat or not.

today Greed's gonna WIN over flippers & da SHORTS

transition day back to ACCUMULATION after profit taking yesterday

Jan 16th w Bill Ackman can't come soon enuf !

Quite the battle! 💚💚💚

"Why doesn't anyone ever interview Tim Howard? "

Probably because of the stigma attached to him concerning his employment.

"CRUSH the f'riggin Naked SHORTS ! "

Hard to do. This is the Wild West, you know! Anything and everything goes.

"I suspect he thinks giving concessions is a way out of conservatorship."
Yes I think this is his plan. As a shareholder he would be very happy having the warrants cancelled.
Step one get the GSE's out of conservatorship no matter what the Government deal maybe.
Then let the shareholders have their day in court.
He probably thinks the Supreme Court would never side with the Government on this one and I agree.

MM's doing a stop loss raid again..

This is all the news any investor needs to know...

$FMCC~ $FNMA~ Take a Fatman Scoop!

Monthly $6.35 BREAKOUT coming
to a chart near you SOON! "
Welcome back to da future

"UPDATE 1-Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares surge after federal agencies reveal privatization path"

What good is a path if nobody is willing to walk it? And, a path revealed by the U.S. Government probably has a sheer cliff drop at its end.

Ffffact is hogging the line.
Fnma

Buy FMCC lots in 2200 please

Thank you, much appreciated.

Finally some common sense thinking, thank you.

If it is clean to exercise the warrants, then it should have happened already.
There is a reason. It is not legal!

You and me can say it out.. Ackmann cannot say it out loud, as he will be called a greedy hedge fund, trying to milk the tax payer and not worried about safety and soundness blah bla blah.

But there is a good chance that warrants may not be executed (its always an option).. But Ackman cannot say it..

JM2C

Zero chances of Warrants getting executed. The new administration will make this right!!

Bill Ackman’s Bold Case for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Written by Ryan Hasson - January 7, 2025

https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/bill-ackmans-bold-case-for-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac/

Key Points

-- Bill Ackman predicts massive gains for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if they exit conservatorship.

-- The GSEs have repaid $300 billion since their 2008 bailout but remain under government control with significant political and regulatory challenges.

-- Ackman foresees potential IPOs valuing the stocks at $31-$34 but warns of dilution, delays, and high risks for investors.

Billionaire investor and Pershing Square Holdings founder Bill Ackman recently made waves on X (formerly Twitter) by doubling down on his bullish outlook for Fannie Mae OTC: FNMA and Freddie Mac OTC: FMCC. Ackman, whose investing acumen earned him comparisons to Warren Buffett and the “Baby Buffett” nickname, believes these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are nearing a pivotal moment that could deliver massive returns for investors.

Ackman’s renewed enthusiasm stems from his confidence in the policies of a potential second Trump administration, which he argues could create a regulatory environment favorable to ending the GSEs’ long-running conservatorship. With predictions of triple-digit upside, Ackman’s thesis has sparked interest but also underscores the substantial risks involved.

History of Conservatorship

In 2008, amid the global financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under conservatorship due to their exposure to risky subprime mortgages. This intervention provided a $187 billion lifeline but came with stringent conditions: the GSEs were required to pass all profits to the Treasury under a "net sweep agreement." Over time, they have returned nearly $300 billion, surpassing the initial bailout.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play critical roles in the U.S. housing market. They purchase mortgages from lenders and package them into securities sold to investors. Fannie focuses on larger banks, while Freddie works with smaller institutions. Despite their financial recovery, both remain under government control. The Treasury holds warrants equivalent to 80% of their common stock and senior preferred shares valued at $193 billion.

Momentum Toward Independence

Under the first Trump administration, significant steps were taken toward reforming the GSEs. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin ended the net sweep agreement, allowing the entities to retain earnings and rebuild capital reserves. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also introduced new capital requirements, setting the stage for a potential exit from conservatorship.

Ackman believes a second Trump administration would pick up where these reforms left off. He estimates that a successful exit could yield an additional $300 billion in profits for the government while removing $8 trillion in liabilities from its balance sheet. Furthermore, Ackman projects that the GSEs’ initial public offerings (IPOs) in late 2026 could price shares at around $31, with valuations reaching $34 per share by 2028. This represents potential gains of 679% for Fannie Mae and 705% for Freddie Mac as of Monday’s close.

The Case for and Against the GSEs

Ackman’s optimism hinges on several assumptions. First, he anticipates that the Treasury will credit past profit distributions toward senior preferred stock, easing the path to privatization. Second, he expects the FHFA to set the capital requirement at 2.5%, which he argues is achievable given the GSEs’ earnings power and ability to accumulate capital quickly.

However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) previously suggested higher capital thresholds and political resistance could complicate the process. Additionally, Ackman acknowledges that raising the necessary $30 billion through equity issuance would dilute existing shareholders, potentially tempering returns.

While Ackman’s projections are compelling, they are far from guaranteed. The GSEs’ future depends on numerous factors, including regulatory decisions, political dynamics, and market conditions. A higher capital requirement or failure to resolve the Treasury’s senior preferred shares could derail efforts to exit conservatorship.

Moreover, the timing of reforms is uncertain, and any delays could undermine the investment thesis. For these reasons, Ackman warns investors to risk only what they can afford to lose, as he mentioned in his X post.

The Bottom Line

Ackman’s latest push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac highlights his belief in their long-term potential, especially under a pro-deregulation administration. With the possibility of high triple-digit returns, the GSEs offer an exciting or “asymmetric” opportunity, as Ackman put it, but only for those prepared to navigate the significant uncertainties.

For investors willing to take on the risk, these stocks represent a high-stakes bet on regulatory reform, political will, and the resilience of the U.S. housing market. As the debate over their future unfolds, the coming years could mark a turning point for these GSEs and their shareholders.

"I suspect we will see $3.50 sometime this week and then stabilize. End of month we should be at $8 or thereabouts."

$8 seems a bit ambitious. Maybe shoot for a stable $5.

"I read in X that Ackman was talking about an IPO. Has this already been discussed here? F&F is already on the stock exchange."

For a long time, Ackman has had access to the soapbox and has said a lot of things that I, and others, might not agree with or agree to. I suspect he thinks giving concessions is a way out of conservatorship. It hasn't worked so far. Allowing the warrants to be exercised is foolish as they were being held as insurance should the GSEs not be able to repay the money they received. Not only was it paid back but paid back generously, Exercising the warrants means shareholders would be screwed over twice so the hell with Ackman's ideas. Cancellation is the only acceptable solution.

I used to ask my kids not to cry. Not that it worked, but... LOL. They always needed motivation - a cookie or milk, etc. In this case the Govt gets warrants, which equals $$$, so they should be onboard.

We all need to push ackman to persuade trump in any way possible and I mean any way to get trump and others in hi positions to see that we have already more than paid back the government and tax payers. Ackman needs to do what ever it takes.

Dr. Bend Over is back. Line up!

Since you are posting this, why do you believe that gov can get all of these shares? Can you respond to my last post to Kt? He decided not to answer. Also, how do I see all of my posts in this crappy app without having to scroll through thousands of posts to my last post and then click on my profile name? There has to be an easier way? What am I missing?

Waiting for more funds to clear. Need to add more before she really takes off and heads into the teens.

Well at least the opening Gap was filled. Traders are sure having fun.

Mars

YESSSSS

and the easiest way to convince the "cleansing" of 200B is to show DJT how he gets 200B a simpler faster way

yes
and Ackman understands the GOV under DJT wants to monetize $$$$$$ F and F for GOV

GOV can decide to dilute and own 99% of the commons --- (it can do it)

or

GOV can decide to dilute to own 79.99% via Warrants

Ackman is arguing for Warrants as to how DJT gets CASH CASH CASH for his Budget

Freddie Mac Appoints James Whitlinger Chief Financial Officer

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freddie-mac-appoints-james-whitlinger-150000271.html

cool

I do not see why a court would void profit

can anyone summarize the sentiment?

will take Warrants

what does that mean --- ?

are you saying - this administration will exercise?

Barrons also has carried a bunch on Ackman

not sure it was a hit piece per say ---- or just the opinion of an author

Freddie Mac Appoints James Whitlinger Chief Financial Officer
Ten-year company veteran named EVP & CFO effective immediately

January 07, 2025 10:00 ET

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today announced the appointment of James Whitlinger as executive vice president and chief financial officer (CFO), effective January 1, 2025. Whitlinger previously served as the company’s senior vice president and Single-Family CFO since 2014. He has served as interim CFO since June of 2024, following the departure of Christian Lown, who served as CFO from June of 2020 to June 2024.

“It’s with great pleasure that we announce Jim Whitlinger as the company’s new chief financial officer,” said Diana Reid, Chief Executive Officer of Freddie Mac. “Jim is a proven leader with more than 30 years of financial management and accounting experience. As a 10-year veteran of Freddie Mac, he is well positioned to assume the CFO role and maintain the strength and continuity of our Finance functions.”

Whitlinger has worked in the real estate finance industry for more than three decades, most recently serving as senior vice president at Univest Bank and Trust Co. Prior to Univest, he served as executive vice president and CFO at GMAC ResCap, Inc.

“I am excited and humbled to be chosen as Freddie Mac’s next CFO,” said Whitlinger. “I thank Freddie Mac’s Board and the company’s outstanding senior leadership team for their confidence, and I look forward to leading the talented and hardworking individuals who make up our Finance Division,” said Whitlinger.

Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website | Consumers | X | LinkedIn | Facebook | Instagram | YouTube

MEDIA CONTACT: Chris Spina
703-388-7031
Christopher_Spina@FreddieMac.com

Of course, you're right! The only thing needed for release from conservatorship is for the government to stop stealing the profits from these companies. But.....That's like asking a baby not to cry. 

Latest Research Paper released today ...

https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/AgencyMBS-Privatization-of-Fannie_Freddie_Jan2025.pdf.

Why doesn't anyone ever interview Tim Howard? He's the former CFO of Fannie, he clearly has more intimate knowledge of the agencies than most (if not all) - yet he's rarely quoted and never part of any interviews or expert panels?

You are the media. Use X and other platforms to share FNMA news.

Let me ask an over simplified question. While the GSEs are in conservatorship and need approval from the Govt to wipe their noses, why is it so tough to release them as private companies. They ARE publicly traded companies currently so they are, by definition, private companies. We just need the govt to leave them alone. They ran for 70 years as public companies until they were force fed $192B with the mandate to save wall street from all their bad loans then to take the fall for it. Yes, this is all over simplified but so many of they articles make it sound like releasing these companies from conservatorship is more complex than creating time travel.

Boooom ! - DoubleLine Asks: Will Trump Reprivatize Fannie and Freddie in His Second Term?

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DSL/double-line-asks-will-trump-reprivatize-fannie-and-freddie-in-his-eyrpivwp9zf9.html


FAQ

What are the potential impacts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reprivatization on Agency MBS markets?
According to DoubleLine's research, reprivatization attempts could trigger sporadic volatility in the Agency mortgage-backed securities market, though the exact impact remains uncertain.

How long would it take to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under Trump's potential second term?
The research indicates it would be a massive and complex project taking multiple years and requiring coordination among all three branches of government.

What are the main challenges identified in DoubleLine's research for Fannie and Freddie reprivatization?
The research highlights significant risks, unclear political and economic upside compared to the status quo, and the need for extensive coordination across government branches as major challenges.

How likely is Trump to attempt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac privatization in a second term?
According to DoubleLine's analysis, while full privatization faces challenges, there is a good chance parts of it will be attempted by the incoming administration.