Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAP) Cotización

today Greed's gonna WIN over flippers & da SHORTS

transition day back to ACCUMULATION after profit taking yesterday

Jan 16th w Bill Ackman can't come soon enuf !

Quite the battle! 💚💚💚

"Why doesn't anyone ever interview Tim Howard? "

Probably because of the stigma attached to him concerning his employment.

"CRUSH the f'riggin Naked SHORTS ! "

Hard to do. This is the Wild West, you know! Anything and everything goes.

"I suspect he thinks giving concessions is a way out of conservatorship."
Yes I think this is his plan. As a shareholder he would be very happy having the warrants cancelled.
Step one get the GSE's out of conservatorship no matter what the Government deal maybe.
Then let the shareholders have their day in court.
He probably thinks the Supreme Court would never side with the Government on this one and I agree.

MM's doing a stop loss raid again..

This is all the news any investor needs to know...

$FMCC~ $FNMA~ Take a Fatman Scoop!

Monthly $6.35 BREAKOUT coming
to a chart near you SOON! "
Welcome back to da future

"UPDATE 1-Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac shares surge after federal agencies reveal privatization path"

What good is a path if nobody is willing to walk it? And, a path revealed by the U.S. Government probably has a sheer cliff drop at its end.

Ffffact is hogging the line.
Fnma

Buy FMCC lots in 2200 please

Thank you, much appreciated.

Finally some common sense thinking, thank you.

If it is clean to exercise the warrants, then it should have happened already.
There is a reason. It is not legal!

You and me can say it out.. Ackmann cannot say it out loud, as he will be called a greedy hedge fund, trying to milk the tax payer and not worried about safety and soundness blah bla blah.

But there is a good chance that warrants may not be executed (its always an option).. But Ackman cannot say it..

JM2C

Zero chances of Warrants getting executed. The new administration will make this right!!

Bill Ackman’s Bold Case for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Written by Ryan Hasson - January 7, 2025

https://www.marketbeat.com/originals/bill-ackmans-bold-case-for-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac/

Key Points

-- Bill Ackman predicts massive gains for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac if they exit conservatorship.

-- The GSEs have repaid $300 billion since their 2008 bailout but remain under government control with significant political and regulatory challenges.

-- Ackman foresees potential IPOs valuing the stocks at $31-$34 but warns of dilution, delays, and high risks for investors.

Billionaire investor and Pershing Square Holdings founder Bill Ackman recently made waves on X (formerly Twitter) by doubling down on his bullish outlook for Fannie Mae OTC: FNMA and Freddie Mac OTC: FMCC. Ackman, whose investing acumen earned him comparisons to Warren Buffett and the “Baby Buffett” nickname, believes these government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) are nearing a pivotal moment that could deliver massive returns for investors.

Ackman’s renewed enthusiasm stems from his confidence in the policies of a potential second Trump administration, which he argues could create a regulatory environment favorable to ending the GSEs’ long-running conservatorship. With predictions of triple-digit upside, Ackman’s thesis has sparked interest but also underscores the substantial risks involved.

History of Conservatorship

In 2008, amid the global financial crisis, the U.S. Treasury placed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under conservatorship due to their exposure to risky subprime mortgages. This intervention provided a $187 billion lifeline but came with stringent conditions: the GSEs were required to pass all profits to the Treasury under a "net sweep agreement." Over time, they have returned nearly $300 billion, surpassing the initial bailout.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play critical roles in the U.S. housing market. They purchase mortgages from lenders and package them into securities sold to investors. Fannie focuses on larger banks, while Freddie works with smaller institutions. Despite their financial recovery, both remain under government control. The Treasury holds warrants equivalent to 80% of their common stock and senior preferred shares valued at $193 billion.

Momentum Toward Independence

Under the first Trump administration, significant steps were taken toward reforming the GSEs. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin ended the net sweep agreement, allowing the entities to retain earnings and rebuild capital reserves. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) also introduced new capital requirements, setting the stage for a potential exit from conservatorship.

Ackman believes a second Trump administration would pick up where these reforms left off. He estimates that a successful exit could yield an additional $300 billion in profits for the government while removing $8 trillion in liabilities from its balance sheet. Furthermore, Ackman projects that the GSEs’ initial public offerings (IPOs) in late 2026 could price shares at around $31, with valuations reaching $34 per share by 2028. This represents potential gains of 679% for Fannie Mae and 705% for Freddie Mac as of Monday’s close.

The Case for and Against the GSEs

Ackman’s optimism hinges on several assumptions. First, he anticipates that the Treasury will credit past profit distributions toward senior preferred stock, easing the path to privatization. Second, he expects the FHFA to set the capital requirement at 2.5%, which he argues is achievable given the GSEs’ earnings power and ability to accumulate capital quickly.

However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) previously suggested higher capital thresholds and political resistance could complicate the process. Additionally, Ackman acknowledges that raising the necessary $30 billion through equity issuance would dilute existing shareholders, potentially tempering returns.

While Ackman’s projections are compelling, they are far from guaranteed. The GSEs’ future depends on numerous factors, including regulatory decisions, political dynamics, and market conditions. A higher capital requirement or failure to resolve the Treasury’s senior preferred shares could derail efforts to exit conservatorship.

Moreover, the timing of reforms is uncertain, and any delays could undermine the investment thesis. For these reasons, Ackman warns investors to risk only what they can afford to lose, as he mentioned in his X post.

The Bottom Line

Ackman’s latest push for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac highlights his belief in their long-term potential, especially under a pro-deregulation administration. With the possibility of high triple-digit returns, the GSEs offer an exciting or “asymmetric” opportunity, as Ackman put it, but only for those prepared to navigate the significant uncertainties.

For investors willing to take on the risk, these stocks represent a high-stakes bet on regulatory reform, political will, and the resilience of the U.S. housing market. As the debate over their future unfolds, the coming years could mark a turning point for these GSEs and their shareholders.

"I suspect we will see $3.50 sometime this week and then stabilize. End of month we should be at $8 or thereabouts."

$8 seems a bit ambitious. Maybe shoot for a stable $5.

"I read in X that Ackman was talking about an IPO. Has this already been discussed here? F&F is already on the stock exchange."

For a long time, Ackman has had access to the soapbox and has said a lot of things that I, and others, might not agree with or agree to. I suspect he thinks giving concessions is a way out of conservatorship. It hasn't worked so far. Allowing the warrants to be exercised is foolish as they were being held as insurance should the GSEs not be able to repay the money they received. Not only was it paid back but paid back generously, Exercising the warrants means shareholders would be screwed over twice so the hell with Ackman's ideas. Cancellation is the only acceptable solution.

I used to ask my kids not to cry. Not that it worked, but... LOL. They always needed motivation - a cookie or milk, etc. In this case the Govt gets warrants, which equals $$$, so they should be onboard.

We all need to push ackman to persuade trump in any way possible and I mean any way to get trump and others in hi positions to see that we have already more than paid back the government and tax payers. Ackman needs to do what ever it takes.

Dr. Bend Over is back. Line up!

Since you are posting this, why do you believe that gov can get all of these shares? Can you respond to my last post to Kt? He decided not to answer. Also, how do I see all of my posts in this crappy app without having to scroll through thousands of posts to my last post and then click on my profile name? There has to be an easier way? What am I missing?

Waiting for more funds to clear. Need to add more before she really takes off and heads into the teens.

Well at least the opening Gap was filled. Traders are sure having fun.

Mars

YESSSSS

and the easiest way to convince the "cleansing" of 200B is to show DJT how he gets 200B a simpler faster way

yes
and Ackman understands the GOV under DJT wants to monetize $$$$$$ F and F for GOV

GOV can decide to dilute and own 99% of the commons --- (it can do it)

or

GOV can decide to dilute to own 79.99% via Warrants

Ackman is arguing for Warrants as to how DJT gets CASH CASH CASH for his Budget

Freddie Mac Appoints James Whitlinger Chief Financial Officer

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freddie-mac-appoints-james-whitlinger-150000271.html

cool

I do not see why a court would void profit

can anyone summarize the sentiment?

will take Warrants

what does that mean --- ?

are you saying - this administration will exercise?

Barrons also has carried a bunch on Ackman

not sure it was a hit piece per say ---- or just the opinion of an author

Freddie Mac Appoints James Whitlinger Chief Financial Officer
Ten-year company veteran named EVP & CFO effective immediately

January 07, 2025 10:00 ET

MCLEAN, Va., Jan. 07, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today announced the appointment of James Whitlinger as executive vice president and chief financial officer (CFO), effective January 1, 2025. Whitlinger previously served as the company’s senior vice president and Single-Family CFO since 2014. He has served as interim CFO since June of 2024, following the departure of Christian Lown, who served as CFO from June of 2020 to June 2024.

“It’s with great pleasure that we announce Jim Whitlinger as the company’s new chief financial officer,” said Diana Reid, Chief Executive Officer of Freddie Mac. “Jim is a proven leader with more than 30 years of financial management and accounting experience. As a 10-year veteran of Freddie Mac, he is well positioned to assume the CFO role and maintain the strength and continuity of our Finance functions.”

Whitlinger has worked in the real estate finance industry for more than three decades, most recently serving as senior vice president at Univest Bank and Trust Co. Prior to Univest, he served as executive vice president and CFO at GMAC ResCap, Inc.

“I am excited and humbled to be chosen as Freddie Mac’s next CFO,” said Whitlinger. “I thank Freddie Mac’s Board and the company’s outstanding senior leadership team for their confidence, and I look forward to leading the talented and hardworking individuals who make up our Finance Division,” said Whitlinger.

Freddie Mac’s mission is to make home possible for families across the nation. We promote liquidity, stability, affordability and equity in the housing market throughout all economic cycles. Since 1970, we have helped tens of millions of families buy, rent or keep their home. Learn More: Website | Consumers | X | LinkedIn | Facebook | Instagram | YouTube

MEDIA CONTACT: Chris Spina
703-388-7031
Christopher_Spina@FreddieMac.com

Of course, you're right! The only thing needed for release from conservatorship is for the government to stop stealing the profits from these companies. But.....That's like asking a baby not to cry. 

Latest Research Paper released today ...

https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/AgencyMBS-Privatization-of-Fannie_Freddie_Jan2025.pdf.

Why doesn't anyone ever interview Tim Howard? He's the former CFO of Fannie, he clearly has more intimate knowledge of the agencies than most (if not all) - yet he's rarely quoted and never part of any interviews or expert panels?

You are the media. Use X and other platforms to share FNMA news.

Let me ask an over simplified question. While the GSEs are in conservatorship and need approval from the Govt to wipe their noses, why is it so tough to release them as private companies. They ARE publicly traded companies currently so they are, by definition, private companies. We just need the govt to leave them alone. They ran for 70 years as public companies until they were force fed $192B with the mandate to save wall street from all their bad loans then to take the fall for it. Yes, this is all over simplified but so many of they articles make it sound like releasing these companies from conservatorship is more complex than creating time travel.

Boooom ! - DoubleLine Asks: Will Trump Reprivatize Fannie and Freddie in His Second Term?

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DSL/double-line-asks-will-trump-reprivatize-fannie-and-freddie-in-his-eyrpivwp9zf9.html


FAQ

What are the potential impacts of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reprivatization on Agency MBS markets?
According to DoubleLine's research, reprivatization attempts could trigger sporadic volatility in the Agency mortgage-backed securities market, though the exact impact remains uncertain.

How long would it take to privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under Trump's potential second term?
The research indicates it would be a massive and complex project taking multiple years and requiring coordination among all three branches of government.

What are the main challenges identified in DoubleLine's research for Fannie and Freddie reprivatization?
The research highlights significant risks, unclear political and economic upside compared to the status quo, and the need for extensive coordination across government branches as major challenges.

How likely is Trump to attempt Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac privatization in a second term?
According to DoubleLine's analysis, while full privatization faces challenges, there is a good chance parts of it will be attempted by the incoming administration.

Noted yesterday - Baron's

If not mentioned

late afternoon Baron's article came out warning privatization adds zero for consumer and might increase costs to consumer

SO ?

seems to have had a time limited negative impact ? (likely an excuse for profit taking )

Boooom ! - DoubleLine Asks: Will Trump Reprivatize Fannie and Freddie in His Second Term?

https://www.stocktitan.net/news/DSL/double-line-asks-will-trump-reprivatize-fannie-and-freddie-in-his-eyrpivwp9zf9.html

Rhea-AI Summary

TAMPA, Fla., Jan. 7, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- While the upcoming launch of Trump 2.0 has generated a lot of public speculation about the incoming administration's policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs, another area of policy focus from President Trump's first term could be revived: reprivatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In a new research paper, DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Kunal Patel, CFA, and Analyst Alex Shvartser take a look at the history of the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) under conservatorship, the challenging pathway to reprivatization and such a move's impact on the Agency mortgage-backed securities market.

DoubleLine has released a research paper analyzing the potential reprivatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under a possible second Trump administration. Portfolio Manager Kunal Patel, CFA, and Analyst Alex Shvartser examine the GSEs' history under conservatorship and evaluate the challenges of reprivatization.

The authors note that privatizing the GSEs would be a complex, multi-year project requiring coordination across all government branches. While acknowledging significant risks and unclear political or economic benefits compared to the current situation, they suggest the incoming administration might attempt aspects of privatization, potentially causing volatility in the Agency mortgage-backed securities market.


Insights

Financial Policy Analyst neutral
The potential reprivatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac under a second Trump administration represents a significant policy shift that could fundamentally reshape the $7.6 trillion agency mortgage-backed securities market. The complexity of such an undertaking cannot be understated - it would require extensive coordination between Congress, the Executive branch and regulatory bodies, likely taking several years to execute.
The current conservatorship structure, implemented during the 2008 financial crisis, has provided stability to the mortgage market through government backing. Any privatization effort would need to carefully address capital requirements, regulatory oversight and the transition of credit risk from government to private shareholders without disrupting the housing finance system.

Market participants should prepare for potential volatility in agency MBS spreads as policy details emerge. Key considerations include the GSEs' capital structure post-privatization, changes to their credit guarantee business model and the impact on mortgage rates for consumers. The most likely scenario would involve a gradual transition rather than an abrupt shift to minimize market disruption.


Market Research Analyst neutral
While this research paper highlights an important potential policy shift, several market dynamics warrant attention. The agency MBS market's reaction would likely be measured initially, as any privatization effort would face significant legislative and practical hurdles. Historical precedent suggests that major structural changes to the GSEs typically result in temporary spread widening followed by normalization as implementation details become clearer.

The timing of this discussion is particularly relevant given current market conditions. With mortgage rates at elevated levels and housing affordability challenges persisting, any policy changes affecting the GSEs must be carefully calibrated. The research appropriately identifies the lack of clear economic advantages to privatization over the current model, suggesting that market participants may view initial policy proposals with skepticism.

For investors in DoubleLine's mortgage-focused products, this analysis provides valuable forward-looking insights into potential market risks and opportunities, though immediate portfolio adjustments may not be warranted given the preliminary nature of these discussions.

DoubleLine Logo (PRNewsfoto/DoubleLine)

The research paper, "Agency Mortgage-Backed Securities: Fannie and Freddie Private Again Under Trump 2.0?," can be accessed here: https://doubleline.com/wp-content/uploads/AgencyMBS-Privatization-of-Fannie_Freddie_Jan2025.pdf.

"Privatizing the GSEs, if pursued, would be a massive and complex project that would take multiple years and likely require coordination among all three branches of government," Messrs. Patel and Shvartser write. "While privatization has significant risks and unclear political or economic upside relative to the status quo, it is certainly possible, and there is a good chance parts of it will be attempted at some point by the incoming administration, which might be a catalyst for sporadic volatility in the Agency mortgage-backed securities market."

Kunal Patel, CFA, is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine's Structured Products team. Mr. Patel joined DoubleLine in 2016 as a Mortgage Trader specializing in Agency RMBS and was later promoted to Portfolio Manager in 2021. Prior to DoubleLine, he worked as a Managing Director responsible for CMO and specified pool trading at Cantor Fitzgerald. Prior to that, Mr. Patel worked as a CMO, ARMs and Specified Pool Trader and Deal Structurer at Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas and RBS Greenwich Capital. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Cornell University. Mr. Patel is a CFA® charterholder.

Alex Shvartser is an Analyst on DoubleLine's Structured Products team. Mr. Shvartser joined DoubleLine in 2020 as an Analyst on the Agency RMBS team. Prior to DoubleLine, he was with TCW as a Senior Vice President, Investment Analytics. Prior to TCW, Mr. Shvartser was a Quantitative Analyst at ICE Canyon. Prior to ICE Canyon, he was Vice President at BlackRock in the Financial Modeling Group. Mr. Shvartser holds a B.S. in Electrical Engineering from the California Institute of Technology and an M.S. in Mathematics in Finance from New York University.

About DoubleLine

DoubleLine Capital is an investment adviser registered under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. DoubleLine's offices can be reached by telephone at (813) 791-7333 or by email at info@doubleline.com. Media can reach DoubleLine by email at media@doubleline.com. DoubleLine® is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP.

©2025 DoubleLine Capital LP.

SOURCE DoubleLine

Morning bump, now falling. I fear a SOLID red day. But would LOVE to be incredibly wrong.

It was up.1999, MM games?

Yellow sticky this plz.

Only way to do that is to get back on a regulated exchange.

Our beloved Sammy boy needs a translator to explain to him what he just said. When you see his post, give it a thumbs up and move to the next one.

March? Too slow. I prefer sprint.

CRUSH the f'riggin Naked SHORTS ! -

Here's to hoping today is real and not another head fake like yesterday. I have my resignation in my DRAFTS folder and really want to send it!!! LOL.

Head fake by the MMs in PM to sucker in more buyers at this level or we move back up? I sure don't know...no one but the MMs know. I just know to add on the BIG dips and ride it out. Same as the last 16 effing years

The big question is whether Ackman can persuade
TRUMP & Treasury that the govt's fiscal balance —
which includes hundreds of billions of dollars owed
by GSEs to Treasury Department is a function of
bad accounting, and the money borrowed should
be considered to already been repaid in full.

Treasury’s Phillips Says GSEs Have Paid Back Taxpayers

by Alex J. Pollock - May 20, 2019



In the video above he’s responding to a question from Alex Pollock, who put together an article on the 10% moment. The theory behind the 10% moment is to ignore the accounting fraud and the net worth sweep and to calculate the cash ROI on taxpayer dollars invested into Fannie and Freddie. Alex suggests that the current cash on cash ROI is 11.5%. His logic is that because this exceeds the original 10%, the government can say it’s been paid back. Craig Phillips calls Alex his hero for coming up with this concept and says that taxpayers have been paid back.