The median U.S. sale price is up 5% year over
year. But there are signs that price growth could slow soon, with
the average home selling for under list price, inventory rising and
a high share of listings growing stale.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — The median U.S. home-sale price hit an all-time
high of $397,482 during the four weeks ending July 7, up 4.7% year
over year—the biggest increase in over four months. That’s
according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage. This marks the ninth
straight week the median sale price has reached a new record
high.
Sale prices have remained stubbornly high despite elevated
mortgage rates pushing down homebuying demand; pending home sales
are down 3.5% year over year and mortgage-purchase applications are
down 13%. That’s partly because inventory remains historically low,
pushing up prices and pushing down sales. And it’s partly because
final sale prices are a lagging indicator—they reflect deals that
were struck between buyers and sellers a month or two earlier.
There are signs that price growth may lose momentum soon. The
typical home is selling for 0.4% less than its asking price,
marking the first time the typical home has sold under list price
at the start of July since 2020, when the onset of the pandemic
nearly ground the housing market to a halt. Additionally, just 32%
of homes are selling above asking price, down from 36% a year ago
and the lowest share at this time of year since 2020.
Although inventory is still historically low, it is rising on a
year-over-year basis, which is another sign that price growth may
lose steam in the coming months. New listings are up 7.3% year over
year, and the total number of homes for sale is up 18.3%, with most
homes for sale growing stale: More than 60% of homes are listed for
at least a month without going under contract. More homes are
hitting the market partly because mortgage rates have been sitting
at double pandemic-era lows for nearly two years, and sellers are
tired of waiting for rates to drop before they move on to their
next home.
“Homes are sitting longer than they usually do this time of
year, which has led to some—but not all—homes selling for a little
bit less,” said Julie Zubiate, a Redfin Premier agent in the Bay
Area. “The longer rates stay high, the pickier buyers are getting.
Buyers will jump ship or try to negotiate the price down with any
sort of tiny problem; sellers should take the time to prep, price
and promote their homes correctly to find the right buyer. That
being said, there is one segment of the market that is still moving
fast, with homes going over asking price with multiple offers:
Move-in ready homes with big backyards located in desirable school
districts.”
For Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market, please visit
Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Leading indicators
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed
mortgage rate
6.99% (July 10)
Down from 7.14% a week earlier;
first time in about a month it has dropped below 7%
Down from 7.12%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed
mortgage rate
6.95% (week ending July 3)
Up from 6.86% a week earlier;
first increase after 4 straight weeks of declines
Up from 6.81%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Increased 1% from a week earlier
(as of week ending July 5)
Down 13%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Up 2% from a month earlier (as of
week ending July 7)
Down 16%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a
measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from
Redfin agents
Touring activity
Flat from the start of the year
(as of July 7)
At this time last year, it was up
1% from the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring
technology company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 17% from a month earlier (as
of July 7)
Down 14%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending July
7, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending July 7,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$397,482
4.7%
All-time high; biggest increase
in 4 months
Median asking price
$406,000
5.4%
Lowest level in 3 months
Median monthly mortgage
payment
$2,742 at a 6.95% mortgage
rate
5.3%
$95 below all-time high set
during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
83,410
-3.5%
New listings
93,452
7.3%
Active listings
970,503
18.3%
Smallest increase in over 2
months
Months of supply
3.6
+0.8 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is
considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions
Share of homes off market in
two weeks
41.1%
Down from 45%
Median days on market
32
+4 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
31.9%
Down from 36%
Share of homes with a price
drop
6.5%
+1.8 pts.
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.6%
-0.4 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending July 7, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest
year-over-year increases
Metros with biggest
year-over-year decreases
Notes
Median sale price
West Palm Beach, FL (13.8%)
Fort Lauderdale, FL (13%)
Detroit (12.9%)
New Brunswick, NJ (12.8%)
Anaheim, CA (12.2%)
Austin, TX (-1.9%)
Dallas (-1.2%)
Declined in 2 metros
Pending sales
San Jose, CA (18.8%)
San Francisco (9.4%)
Boston (9.2%)
Montgomery County, PA (3.8%)
Columbus, OH (2.8%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-16.9%)
Houston (-13.8%)
Miami (-13.6%)
Minneapolis (-12.5%)
Atlanta (-11.7%)
Increased in 12 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (29.3%)
Jacksonville, FL (21.2%)
Las Vegas (21.2%)
Miami (19.9%)
Phoenix (16.4%)
Atlanta (-9.8%)
Minneapolis (-6.2%)
Chicago (-5.4%)
San Francisco (-4.9%)
Portland, OR (-4.3%)
Declined in 9 metros
To view the full report, including charts, methodology and
metro-level data, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-home-prices-record-high-rising-supply
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240711467312/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Kenneth Applewhaite
press@redfin.com
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