A soft jobs report and recession jitters sent
mortgage rates down last week. Despite the small improvement in
affordability, pending sales still posted their biggest
year-over-year decline in 9 months–but the rate drop prompted some
prospective buyers to start the house-hunting process.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest level
since April 2023 early this week, falling to a daily average of
6.34% on August 5, according to a new report from Redfin, the
technology-powered real estate brokerage. Rates fell after a
weaker-than-expected jobs report stoked recession fears; they have
since ticked up, but they're still near the lowest level in over a
year.
Home prices are also falling from their peak: The median sale
price was $389,750 during the four weeks ending August 4, more than
$6,000 below early July’s all-time high. While that’s a typical
seasonal decline, the year-over-year increase of 3.2% is the
smallest in nine months, indicating that price growth has eased
slightly.
Home sales have yet to improve as the affordability crunch
eases. Pending sales are down 6.7% year over year, the biggest
decline in nine months, and there wasn’t an increase in offers
written with Redfin agents this past weekend after rates fell on
Friday. But there are some signs that house hunters are coming off
the sidelines at early stages of the homebuying process, and that
pending sales could improve soon. Mortgage-purchase applications
rose slightly over the last week on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Redfin’s Homebuyer Demand Index–a measure of requests for tours and
other buying services from Redfin agents–is down 13% year over
year, but that’s the smallest decline in three months.
Additionally, Redfin agents report rising interest in touring
homes.
“Many of the buyers I’m working with are excited because they’ve
been casually house hunting for a year, waiting for rates to come
down before they make an offer. Now a lot of those buyers want to
get in now, before rates get too low and cause more competition,”
said Redfin Premier agent Shoshana Godwin. “One of my listings,
which went on the market last week, had over 100 parties come
through and received nine offers. Buyers are securing lower rates
than they were a few months ago, but costs are still high enough
that buyers are picky. If they're going to have a high monthly
payment, they want a move-in ready home so they don't have to pay
for upgrades.”
On the supply side, new listings are re-gaining some of the
momentum they had lost in recent weeks. New listings of homes for
sale are up 5.9% year over year, the biggest increase in five
weeks. Redfin economists say now is a good time to jump into the
market, while there’s a pile of stale inventory and rates have
started dropping.
For more on Redfin economists’ takes on the housing market,
please visit Redfin’s “From Our Economists” page.
Indicators of homebuying demand and
activity
Value (if applicable)
Recent change
Year-over-year change
Source
Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.58% (Aug. 7)
Near lowest level since spring 2023; down
from 7.14% a month earlier
Down from 7.04%
Mortgage News Daily
Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage
rate
6.73% (week ending Aug. 1)
Down from 7.22% in early May
Down from 6.9%
Freddie Mac
Mortgage-purchase applications
(seasonally adjusted)
Increased 1% from a week earlier (as of
week ending Aug. 2)
Down 11%
Mortgage Bankers Association
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index
(seasonally adjusted)
Essentially unchanged from a month earlier
(as of week ending Aug. 4)
Down 13%
Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure
of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin
agents
Touring activity
Up 13% from the start of the year (as of
Aug. 4)
At this time last year, it was up 8% from
the start of 2023
ShowingTime, a home touring technology
company
Google searches for “home for
sale”
Up 4% from a month earlier (as of Aug.
5)
Down 15%
Google Trends
Key housing-market data
U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending
August 4, 2024
Redfin’s national metrics include data
from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or
sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back
through 2015. Subject to revision.
Four weeks ending August 4,
2024
Year-over-year change
Notes
Median sale price
$389,750
3.2%
$6,373 below all-time high set during the
4 weeks ending July 7
Smallest increase in 9 months
Median asking price
$401,500
6%
Median monthly mortgage payment
$2,665 at a 6.73% mortgage rate
4%
Lowest level since March; $169 below
all-time high set during the 4 weeks ending April 28
Pending sales
82,075
-6.7%
Biggest decline in 9 months
New listings
95,968
5.9%
Active listings
1,002,695
18.9%
Months of supply
3.4
+0.6 pts.
4 to 5 months of supply is considered
balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market
conditions.
Share of homes off market in two
weeks
36.8%
Down from 44%
Median days on market
34
+6 days
Share of homes sold above list
price
30.2%
Down from 35%
Share of homes with a price
drop
7.2%
+2 pts.
Highest level on record
Average sale-to-list price
ratio
99.4%
-0.4 pts.
Metro-level highlights: Four weeks
ending August 4, 2024
Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50
most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time
to time to ensure data accuracy.
Metros with biggest year-over-year
increases
Metros with biggest year-over-year
decreases
Notes
Median sale price
Detroit (16.8%)
Anaheim, CA (11.4%)
Providence, RI (11.1%)
New Brunswick, NJ (11%)
Nassau County, NJ (10.3%)
Austin, TX (-3.3%)
Dallas (-0.8%)
Tampa, FL (-0.5%)
Nashville, TN (-0.3%)
San Antonio, TX (-0.1%)
Declined in 5 metros
Pending sales
San Francisco (9.1%)
Los Angeles (4.4%)
Newark, NJ (2.5%)
Riverside, CA (0.8%)
Providence, RI (0.6%)
Sacramento, CA (0.4%)
Houston (-30.5%)
Atlanta (-17%)
Detroit (-15.1%)
Minneapolis (-14.4%)
West Palm Beach, FL (-14.3%)
Increased in 6 metros
New listings
San Jose, CA (21.9%)
New Brunswick, NJ (18.7%)
Montgomery County, PA (18.4%)
Baltimore (18.1%)
San Diego (17.9%)
Atlanta (-16.4%)
Houston (-12.1%)
Austin, TX (-6.6%)
Detroit (-3.1%)
Warren, MI (-1.1%)
Declined in 8 metros
To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-fall-tours-increase
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240808412530/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Tana Kelley press@redfin.com
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