These swing states have not turned blue despite
the influx of people who have moved in from California and other
blue states. And Redfin’s analysis found that Democrats haven’t
gained ground relative to Republicans in the two southwestern swing
states since Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden.
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Two swing states—Arizona and Nevada—have not
turned blue since the last presidential election, despite an influx
of people moving in from California, according to a new report from
Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Instead, Arizona has lost more than 186,000 registered Democrats
since 2020; Nevada has lost 54,000.
Arizona’s blue bleed was much bigger than its loss of about
74,000 registered Republicans over the past four years. Nevada
gained less than 1,000 Republicans.
Changes in Voter Registration in
Arizona and Nevada, 2020 to 2024
Change in number of voters registered as
Democrat, Republican, or Independent
Change in share of registered voters who
are Democrat, Republican, or Independent
2024 data is through April
Arizona
Nevada
Change in number of registered
Democrats, 2020-2024
-186,119
Share: 29.4% in 2024, down from
32.2% in 2020
-54,028
Share: 30.4% in 2024, down from 37%
in 2020
Change in number of registered
Republicans, 2020-2024
-73,796
Share: 35.4% in 2024, up slightly
from 35.2% in 2020
+753
Share: 28.1% in 2024, down from
31.7% in 2020
Change in number of registered
Independents, 2020-2024
+37,083
Share: 35.3% in 2024, up from 32.6%
in 2020
+320,527
Share: 41.5% in 2024, up from 31.3%
in 2020
Joe Biden won Arizona by just about 10,000 votes in 2020; he won
Nevada by about 34,000 votes. In the wake of the 2020 presidential
election, a similar Redfin analysis found that migrants from places
like New York and Washington, D.C. likely helped flip Georgia
blue.
“Four years ago, the pandemic supercharged a trend that has
reshaped the national housing market: People have been leaving
expensive, coastal, liberal places like New York and California for
affordable, inland, politically moderate places like Arizona and
Nevada,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “While a
lot of people were simply moving to where they could afford a home,
some sought a place where they fit in better politically. While
this self-sorting can help explain the voter registration trends,
it’s more likely that a lot of Arizonans and Nevadans have been
feeling very disillusioned by their political choices.”
Arizona has added about 37,000 voters registered with a party
other than Democrat or Republican—referred to as “Independent” in
Redfin’s report—since the 2020 election. That brings Arizona’s
share of registered Independents to 35.3% of all registered voters,
on par with the 35.4% who are Republicans; just under 30% are
Democrats. Research shows that those Independent voters may cancel
each other out: About half of Independent voters tend to lean
Democrat, and half lean Republican, according to the Pew Research
Center.
Nevada, meanwhile, has added hundreds of thousands of
Independent voters. That brings Nevada to a political division with
far more Independent voters than Democrats or Republicans; nearly
42% of registered voters identify as Independent, 30.4% are
Democrats and 28.1% are Republicans.
The 2024 voter registration data reported above goes through
April.
The Democratic candidate changed in July. But Democratic
voter registrations didn’t gain ground relative to Republican
registrations.
The most recent voter registration data available for Arizona
and Nevada shows that the trends observed in April continued after
Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race. Kamala Harris
became the presumptive Democratic nominee in mid-July when Biden
dropped out, and the official nominee in early August. The Redfin
data team hypothesized that analyzing voter registration data
through July would show that Kamala Harris’ entrance brightened the
voter-registration picture for Democrats in Arizona and Nevada. But
that hasn’t happened, at least not through the end of July.
While both states gained roughly 3,000 registered Democrats from
April to July, they gained far more Republican and Independent
registered voters. In fact, the share of voters registered as
Democrats declined marginally from April to July, from 29.4% to
29.1% in Arizona and from 30.4% to 30.1% in Nevada. The share of
registered Republican voters in each state has essentially remained
flat over the same time period, while the share of Independent
voters has increased slightly from 35.3% to 35.5% in Arizona and
41.5% to 41.9% in Nevada.
Reasons for voter registration changes in Arizona and Nevada:
A little political self-sorting, a lot of disillusionment with both
major parties
Here are some factors in the voter registration changes from
2020-2024 in Arizona and Nevada:
1. Political self-sorting
California lost a net 341,866 residents to other states in 2022
(the most recent year for which this data, from the U.S. Census, is
available), more than any other state. Of the residents who left
California, 48,836 moved to Nevada and 74,157 moved to Arizona.
Redfin’s migration data shows a similar trend. Las Vegas is the
10th-most popular destination for U.S. homebuyers moving from one
metro area to another, with movers most commonly coming from Los
Angeles and San Francisco. Phoenix is the third-most popular
destination for homebuyers, with people most commonly moving in
from Los Angeles and Seattle.
But despite gaining tens of thousands of new residents from
California, Arizona and Nevada did not see a blue wave. Rather,
their populations of Independents surged. This suggests that the
people who moved from California were moderate or conservative
voters seeking a place they could better afford, and where they fit
in better politically.
Here are some data points that support that theory:
- Nearly half (45%) of very conservative Californians say high
housing costs have made them seriously consider moving out of the
state, compared to 39% of middle-of-the-road residents and 26% of
very liberal residents, according to a 2022 survey from the Public
Policy Institute of California.
- More than one-third (36%) of U.S. residents say living in an
area where the politics reflect their personal, social and/or
political views is a must-have, according to a February 2024
Redfin-commissioned survey.
- The change in voter registration records in Republican-leaning
Idaho, another popular destination for pandemic-era movers, is also
emblematic of the self-sorting trend: Of the 40,000 new voters who
moved from California to Idaho, nearly 30,000 of them registered as
Republicans, and just about 4,000 registered as Democrats,
according to a 2023 article from the Idaho Capital Sun.
2. Disillusionment with both the Democratic and Republican
parties
In Nevada, there was a six-figure gain in Independent voter
registrations. Many Nevadans have grown disillusioned with both
Democrats and Republicans over the last four years as increased
political polarization and partisan gridlock have driven many
voters away from the major parties.
3. Young, diverse voters leaning away from the Democratic
party
Declining Democratic registration in Arizona and Nevada can be
explained partly by the fact that Democratic registrations are
declining across the country. Newly registered voters—about half of
whom are younger than 30, and half of whom are nonwhite—are less
likely to register as Democrats than they have been in the past.
It’s worth noting that some evidence shows young, diverse voters
may be more likely to vote for Harris than they were for Biden in
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
To view the full report, including methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/voter-registration-nevada-arizona-2024/
About Redfin
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240816061853/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Isabelle Novak, (414) 861-5861
press@redfin.com
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