Canada’s luxury real estate market eased into spring with modest
sales gains across key metropolitan cities, as the dynamic between
prospective home sellers and buyers improved, and pricing
expectations continued to come into alignment. Despite
strengthening consumer confidence and an increase in early-stage
market engagement in the initial months of 2024, the expectation of
additional property listings supply and potential interest rate
declines prompted some buyers and sellers to defer transactions
into the spring market. As a result, the country’s major
metropolitan areas are expected to see a moderate improvement in
sales activity across the luxury and conventional markets in the
months ahead.
According to Sotheby’s International
Realty Canada’s Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2024 State of Luxury
Report, consumer dynamics in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) evolved
in the first quarter of 2024, setting the stage for measured sales
gains and a balanced market this spring. As the price expectations
of home sellers and prospective buyers came into better alignment,
both pre-transactional and sales activity increased across the
region’s luxury market. As a result, residential real estate sales
over $4 million (condominiums, attached and single family homes)
between January 1 – March 31 climbed 18% year-over-year from the
first quarter of 2023. In these preliminary months of the year,
there were no property sales over $10 million recorded on Multiple
Listings Service (MLS), in contrast to the single property sold in
the same period of 2024. Overall GTA residential sales over $1
million rose 11% year-over-year.
Vancouver’s luxury residential real
estate market experienced a notable increase in pre-transactional
activity in the first quarter of 2024, as consumer and real estate
industry confidence continued to strengthen within a market that
remained in balance. However, a significant cohort of prospective
purchasers continued to await a wider selection of property
listings inventory in the spring market to follow. As a result,
residential sales over $4 million were down 17% year-over-year in
the first quarter of 2024, with none of these recorded over $10
million on MLS compared to four transactions in the first quarter
of 2023. Overall, $1 million-plus residential sales were largely on
par with previous year’s levels, with a marginal 1% year-over-year
shortfall.
Luxury sales activity in Montreal
reflected a stronger-than-anticipated start to 2024, as residential
sales over $1 million between January 1– March 31 increased 53%
year-over-year within a market that maintained balanced conditions
overall. Residential real estate sales over $4 million were on par
with first-quarter 2023 levels at eight units sold.
Record in-migration, a bold economy
and soaring end-consumer and investor confidence in housing
continued to strengthen Calgary’s luxury real estate market
performance in the first quarter of 2024. Between January 1– March
31, residential sales over $1 million surged 63% year-over-year,
positioning the city as one of Canada’s most dynamic and
top-performing luxury markets. $4 million-plus sales were also up
year-over-year in the first quarter to two properties sold, in
contrast to the quiet market experienced in the first quarter of
2023.
"Over the past two years, as conventional and luxury real estate
market conditions softened under the influence of climbing interest
rates and changes to taxes and regulations relating to home
ownership, persistent tension defined the interactions between home
sellers holding onto lofty pricing expectations from previous
peaks, and buyers seeking properties priced for the current market.
This stand-off slowed transactional momentum in several of Canada’s
major metropolitan luxury real estate markets in 2023, particularly
in Vancouver and Toronto, where hyper-inflation of luxury housing
prices was the previous norm,” says Don Kottick, President and CEO
of Sotheby’s International Realty Canada. “Luxury market dynamics
at the start of 2024 reflect a progressive shift in consumer
psychology: sellers are now engaging in the market with more
realistic pricing strategies, and in some cases, greater motivation
to sell. This is setting the stage for productive negotiations with
buyers and investors. We expect to see higher transactional volumes
and improved market fluidity throughout the spring market."
According to Kottick, Alberta’s luxury real estate market has
continued to defy national trends and outperform other major
metropolitan areas as its major cities, Calgary and Edmonton,
continue to attract new residents motivated by favourable costs of
living, comparatively affordable top-tier home prices and a dynamic
business climate.
VancouverOn the heels of a year that saw luxury
residential real estate sales over $4 million (condominiums,
attached and single family homes) rise a modest 8% year-over-year
in 2023, the City of Vancouver’s luxury market reflected a marked
increase in pre-transactional activity in the initial months of
2024. Bustling open houses, an uptick in property enquiries,
heightened buyer engagement in the home search process and an
increase in property listings signalled cautious consumer and
industry optimism for the spring market ahead. Despite solidifying
confidence, the traditional seasonality of the real estate market,
which typically experiences a pullback in property listings supply
from December to March, limited the conversion of this heightened
interest into tangible transactions in the first quarter of the
year, even as it established the foundation for improving sales
activity in the months to come.
As Greater Vancouver REALTORS® reported that residential sales
across the Metro Vancouver region were up a notable 15.9%
year-over-year in March 2024, while new listings across the region
were up 22.5%, the City of Vancouver’s luxury market remained
poised at balanced market conditions overall. In the first quarter
of 2024, residential sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached
and single family homes) pulled back by 17% year-over-year from the
first quarter of 2023 to 54 properties sold. There were no
ultra-luxury $10 million sales on Multiple Listing Services (MLS)
during this time, compared to four units sold in this ultra-luxury
price range in the first quarter of 2023. 877 residential
properties sold over $1 million between January 1– March 31, a
nominal 1% year-over-year shortfall. Property sales between $1
million– $2 million continued to comprise the majority of the
city’s $1 million-plus residential real estate market, accounting
for 64% of these top-tier sales.
Following a year that saw luxury consumer preference swing in
favour of detached housing, driving single family home sales over
$4 million and $10 million to rise 14% and 36% year-over-year in
2023, demand for single family dwellings continued to dominate the
city’s luxury real estate market, according to Sotheby’s
International Realty Canada market experts. With this underlying
demand, a relative shortfall in luxury single family home supply
between $1 million– $4 million in the first quarter of 2024 tipped
this segment of the market to the cusp of sellers’ market
conditions, while deterring transactions as prospective buyers
anticipated new property listings and expanded options in the
months ahead. 48 single family homes sold over $4 million from
January 1– March 31, down 21% from the same period of 2023. There
were no single family home sales reported over $10 million on MLS,
compared to three sold in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, sales
of single family homes over $1 million were down 16% year-over-year
in the first quarter of 2023, with 325 homes sold. According to
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, multiple offers for premier
single family homes located in the city’s most prestigious
Vancouver Westside neighbourhoods also returned, albeit
selectively, and at muted levels in comparison to historical market
highs.
Although Vancouver’s market for luxury condominiums over $4
million remained subdued considering elevated interest rates and
changing luxury housing preferences, the first quarter of 2024
ushered in a notable uptick in property listing enquiries, buyer
engagement and transactions. Five condominiums sold over $4 million
between January 1– March 31, up from four units sold in the first
quarter of 2022; however, there were no transactions recorded over
$10 million on MLS in the first quarter of 2023, compared to one
ultra-luxury condominium sales in the same period of 2023. Overall,
condominium sales over $1 million in the first quarter of the year
saw a modest annual 11% increase to 278 units sold.
The City of Vancouver’s longstanding deficit of attached home
inventory continued to severely limit the housing mobility of its
residents and deter potential sales transactions. In the first
quarter of 2024, one attached home sold over $4 million, compared
to a quiet market in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, attached
home sales over $1 million climbed 13% year-over-year to 274
properties sold between January 1– March 31.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts,
consumer confidence is strengthening across Vancouver’s luxury
market, however, conditions are expected to remain balanced and
competition for properties will remain tempered relative to the
city’s history of frenzied bidding wars and historic highs. As a
result, for discerning buyers, the spring market will remain an
advantageous window for a property purchase in advance of a widely
anticipated interest rate decline and corresponding market
resurgence before the end of the year.
Calgary
Following robust sales gains in 2023, the City of Calgary
continues to outperform in 2024 as one of the leading metropolitan
luxury real estate growth markets in Canada. The city is riding a
wave of economic growth, with three consecutive years of increasing
GDP. This momentum is expected to continue in 2024, with the
Calgary Economic Development forecasting a 2% increase in GDP and a
fourth year of economic expansion for the city in its 2024 Economic
Outlook. The gains in Calgary and Alberta’s economy have not only
cultivated an optimistic sentiment towards housing investment
across the province’s key metropolitan areas, but have also
attracted an influx of new residents at record-setting numbers who
are invigorating tangible demand for conventional and luxury
housing. In fact, as of January 1, 2024, Alberta had seen a 4.4%
annual increase in population (202,324 people) according to the
Government of Alberta, with net migration eclipsing other
provinces’ gains. This establishes the foundation for robust
housing demand in the year ahead.
In the first quarter of 2024, the City of Calgary's residential
real estate market experienced a surge of activity, with the
Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) reporting that the sales-to-new
listings ratio rose to 84% in March and that inventory levels
remained at near-record lows. Against this backdrop, the brisk and
consistent absorption of available top-tier inventory by buyers and
investors reinforced seller's market conditions in the city’s
luxury segment. According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada
experts, the quarter was marked by a healthy balance between supply
and demand, and a rise in luxury property sales.
Despite facing a shortage of high-end inventory, overall luxury
residential real estate sales over $1 million (condominiums,
attached, and single family homes) in Calgary saw an increase of
63% to 441 properties sold from January 1–March 31, 2024, with
property sales between $1 million–$2 million comprising 92% of
overall $1 million-plus sales. Notably, two luxury properties
priced over $4 million were sold in this period, compared to an
inactive first quarter of 2023. As was the case in the first
quarter of 2023, there were no transactions over $10 million on MLS
recorded in the first quarter of the year.
In the initial months of 2024, Calgary’s single family home
market maintained its position as the city’s most sought-after
housing type, accounting for 83% of $1 million-plus residential
real estate transactions from January 1—March 31. However, this
share was down from 89% in the first quarter of 2023 as
higher-density housing sales gained a greater percentage of the
top-tier market. Single family home sales over $1 million rose by
52% year-over-year to 366 properties sold during this period. Sales
of single family homes above $4 million increased to two properties
sold, in contrast with the lack of activity in this segment in the
first quarter of 2023.
The luxury attached home market in Calgary showed sustained
growth in the initial months of 2024, as the relative affordability
of this property type in comparison to single family homes
attracted a wide range of buyers, including those moving up from
condominiums and those seeking to downsize. Exhibiting the greatest
year-over-year gains of the city’s housing types, luxury attached
home sales of over $1 million surged a remarkable 200% to 60
properties sold between January 1—March 31. Consistent with 2023,
no transactions were reported in the $4 million-plus luxury segment
during this time.
Calgary's top-tier condominium market has experienced a steady
rise in demand, largely due to their comparative affordability,
particularly for individuals migrating from provinces with a higher
cost of housing. This trend not only underscores a shift in the
city's lifestyle and urban demographic, but also reflects the
increased financial leverage these new residents bring to the
market. Consequently, luxury condominium sales over $1 million
increased 67% year-over-year with 15 transactions recorded in the
first quarter of 2024. Consistent with the previous year, there
were no condominium sales in the market above $4 million.
Looking ahead, the city's strong economy, burgeoning job market,
as well as its livability, accessible cost of living and favourable
conventional and luxury housing prices, will continue to attract
strong interprovincial migration in 2024. These new residents and
investors will require housing and foster positive conditions for
real estate investment and upward housing mobility. According to
Sotheby’s International Realty Canada, all fundamentals point
towards a spring of robust performance and healthy activity in
Calgary's luxury real estate market.
Greater Toronto AreaMarket dynamics and
consumer psychology within the Greater Toronto Area’s (GTA) luxury
real estate market improved in the first quarter of 2024,
signalling escalating sales activity in the months ahead. Since the
inception of the Bank of Canada’s aggressive monetary policy
tightening campaign in March 2022, tension has persisted between
prospective home sellers and buyers, with the former harbouring
pricing expectations anchored in recollections of past market
highs, and the latter seeking properties at realistic, current
valuations. This has resulted in impasses for individual sales
transactions, and muted activity across the luxury market overall.
According to Sotheby’s International Realty Canada experts, this
dynamic improved in the first quarter of 2024 as sellers returned
to the market with more realistic pricing targets and greater
motivation to sell. This change is fostering the potential for
productive negotiations, increased transactional activity and
greater market fluidity in the spring months ahead. New momentum
was foreshadowed at the end of the first quarter, as the Toronto
Regional Real Estate Board reported an 11.2% annual increase in
quarterly home sales across the GTA, as new listings rose
18.3%.
First-quarter luxury residential sales
in the Greater Toronto Area (Durham, Halton, Peel, Toronto and
York) reflected renewed consumer activity and balanced market
conditions overall. Between January 1– March 31, 2024, luxury
residential sales over $4 million (condominiums, attached and
single family homes) were up 18% year-over-year to 99 properties
sold across the GTA, as ultra-luxury $10 million-plus property
sales on Multiple Listings Service (MLS) remained quiet in
comparison to the single property sale in the same period of 2023.
Overall, residential sales over $1 million experienced a 11% annual
increase to 7,345 properties sold in the GTA during this time.
Property sales between $1 million– $2 million comprised 86% of the
region’s $1 million-plus residential market, up from 85% in the
first quarter of 2023.
Within the City of Toronto,
first-quarter luxury sales over $4 million rose a notable 33%
year-over-year to 57 properties sold, with no transactions over $10
million yet recorded on MLS. $1 million-plus residential real
estate sales in the city rose 8% year-over-year to 2,264 properties
sold between January 1– March 31.
According to Sotheby’s International
Realty Canada, luxury pricing trends continued to stabilize in the
first quarter as inventory returned to the market at listing prices
better reflective of current conditions, while qualified home
buyers approached their property search and negotiations with
purpose, pragmatism and reasonable time horizons. In instances
where premier properties attracted multiple offers, bids remained
within realistic limits of current market values.
Demand for single family homes
continued to command the region’s luxury residential housing market
in the first quarter of 2024. GTA sales over $4 million from
January 1–March 31 were up 18% year-over-year to 90 homes sold,
with none of these selling above $10 million on MLS, compared to
one home sold in this ultra-luxury price range in the first quarter
of 2023. Overall, single family home sales over $1 million
increased 9% year-over-year to 5,350 properties sold in the first
quarter of 2024. In the City of Toronto, luxury single family home
sales over $4 million rose 29% year-over-year to 49 properties
sold, with no transactions above $10 million on MLS, on par with
the first quarter of the previous year. Overall, 1,385 single
family homes sold above $1 million in the first quarter of 2024, a
year-over-year increase of 8%.
The GTA luxury attached home market
saw renewed activity in the first quarter of the year as 1,472
properties sold over $1 million, a healthy 21% annual increase.
Although there were no attached home transactions over $10 million,
two attached homes sold over $4 million in the City of Toronto, as
was the case in the first quarter of 2023. Overall, $1 million-plus
attached home sales in the City of Toronto rose 13% year-over-year
to 506 homes sold in the first quarter of 2024.
Although sales activity in the GTA
luxury condominium market was subdued in the first quarter of 2024,
there were indications of consumer re-engagement as an increasing
number of buyers and investors emerged to explore a market that
continues to skew in their favour. From January 1– March 31, seven
condominiums sold over $4 million across the region compared to six
units sold in this price range in the first quarter of 2023. All
transactions took place in the City of Toronto, double the number
of condominiums sold over $4 million in the city in the first
quarter of 2023. As in the first quarter of 2023, there were no
condominiums sales over $10 million on MLS across the GTA in the
first quarter of 2024. Overall, 523 $1 million-plus condominium
units sold in the GTA in the first three months of 2024, up 11%
from the first quarter of 2023. 373 of these units sold within the
City of Toronto, up 6% year-over-year. The region’s luxury
condominium market continues to offer advantageous conditions for
buyers and investors to acquire properties under less competitive
circumstances than in years past, and from a favourable position
for successful negotiation.
As the spring real estate cycle gains
traction, experts at Sotheby’s International Realty Canada are
forecasting a season of steady activity in a luxury market
positioned for balanced conditions overall. Expanded luxury housing
inventory offered at current market valuations is expected to
encourage a significant cohort of active and qualified buyers to
transact. Furthermore, as Canada’s primary destination for
immigration with 29.5% of recent immigrants to the country settling
in the region according to Statistics Canada, population gains will
continue to buoy both conventional and luxury housing demand and
sales. However, while luxury sales are expected to gain momentum,
the upcoming spring promises a more relaxed environment than in
years past, allowing buyers to navigate their options with
strategic deliberation and with greater potential for success in
securing a desired home.
Montreal The City of
Montreal's luxury housing market experienced a
stronger-than-anticipated start to 2024, as the market showed signs
of awakening after a subdued 2023. Although residential sales over
$1 million and $4 million had experienced annual declines of 14%
and 22% respectively in 2023 as economic uncertainty and high
borrowing costs clouded market sentiment and prompted potential
buyers to postpone home purchases, Sotheby’s International Realty
Québec experts reported a surprising and unseasonably early uptick
in spring market activity in the first quarter of 2024. According
to market experts, there is a renewed demand for opportunities in
the market, and luxury buyers are displaying a greater readiness to
transact on properties favorably priced for current market
conditions.
Although the overall housing market in
the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area remained in a balanced market
position with a sales-to-new-listing ratio of 48.6% in the first
two months of 2024, a slight decrease from the first two months of
2023 (49.3%) according to the latest data from the Quebec
Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers (QPAREB), market
conditions in some of the City of Montreal’s most prestigious
neighborhoods are tilting in favour of sellers as pent-up consumer
demand absorbs available top-tier housing supply. Overall, in the
first quarter of 2024, residential real estate sales over $1
million (condominiums, attached and single family homes) in the
City of Montreal increased 53% year-over-year, with 378 properties
sold. 84% of the city’s $1 million-plus property transactions were
in the $1 million– $2 million range. Luxury sales over $4 million
remained unchanged with eight homes sold in the first quarter of
2024, the same number of transactions as in the first quarter of
2023. No ultra-luxury property sales were reported over $10 million
on Multiple Listing Services (MLS) between January 1 — March 31,
2024, as was the case in the same period of 2023.
Compared to the first quarter of 2023,
single family home sales over $1 million surged 74% with 162 total
home sales in the first quarter of 2024. Of these homes sold, six
did so in the luxury $4 million-plus segment, unchanged from the
same period last year. According to experts at Sotheby's
International Realty Canada, demand for single family homes in the
entry-level price point for top-tier properties, between $1 million
– $2 million has remained robust. In the first quarter of 2024,
this segment represented 75% of total single family sales over $1
million, as was the case in the first quarter of 2023.
As activity in the top-tier single
family home segment heats up, demand has spilled over into the
high-end attached home market, where potential buyers are eager to
secure a property from limited supply before competition
intensifies in the spring. Overall, attached home sales over $1
million increased 39% year-over-year to 118 properties sold. Luxury
attached home sales over $4 million remained consistent with the
first quarter of 2023, posting no transactions.
In the wake of Montreal’s quiet luxury
condominium market in 2023, which saw a 21% annual decline in $1
million-plus sales and a concurrent 33% decline in $4 million-plus
sales, the first quarter of 2024 ushered in renewed sales activity.
Overall, top-tier condominium sales over $1 million increased 42%
year-over-year to 98 properties sold, while luxury condominium
sales in the market over $4 million remained unchanged
year-over-year, with two sales reported in the first quarter of
2024. Consistent with the same period last year, no sales were
reported in the ultra-luxury $10 million-plus segment between
January 1 – March 31.
According to experts at Sotheby’s
International Realty Canada, the renewal of activity in Montreal’s
top-tier housing market in the first quarter of 2024 foreshadows an
active spring ahead. Despite a steady inflow of property listings
inventory, the Montreal Census Metropolitan Area is forecasted to
grow by 2.5%, attracting skilled workers and families with a need
for housing. Furthermore, the consumer price index reading in
February shows topline inflation at 2.8% year-over-year, down from
2.9% year-over-year in January and well within the Bank of Canada’s
preferred range of 1–3%, improving consumer sentiment given the
anticipation of rate cuts from Canada’s central bank later this
year. With the region’s economic prospects stable, sales activity
across Montreal’s conventional and luxury real estate market is
expected to see steady gains in the months ahead.
For more information on Sotheby's International Realty Canada
and the Top-Tier Real Estate: Spring 2024 State of Luxury Report
contact:
Talk Shop MediaJenna Querengesser
jenna.querengesser@talkshopmedia.com778-288-1477
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DisclaimerThe information contained in this
report references market data from MLS boards across Canada.
Sotheby's International Realty Canada cautions that MLS market data
can be useful in establishing trends over time but does not
indicate actual prices in widely divergent neighborhoods or account
for price differentials within local markets. This report is
published for general information only and not to be relied upon in
any way. Although high standards have been used in the preparation
of the information and analysis presented in this report, no
responsibility or liability whatsoever can be accepted by Sotheby's
International Realty Canada or Sotheby's International Realty
Affiliates for any loss or damage resulting from any use of,
reliance on, or reference to the contents of this document.