Worldwide Generative AI Smartphone Shipments Forecast to Reach 70% of the Market by 2028 with More Than 360% Growth in 2024, According to IDC
30 Julio 2024 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
The future of the smartphone industry is set to be transformed
as worldwide generative AI (GenAI) smartphone shipments are
forecast to grow 363.6% year over year in 2024 to 234.2 million
units, according to a new International Data Corporation (IDC)
forecast. This represents 19% of the overall smartphone market in
2024.
IDC defines GenAI smartphones as devices that feature a
system-on-a-chip (SoC) capable of running on-device GenAI models
more quickly and efficiently leveraging a neural processing unit
(NPU) with 30 tera operations per second (TOPS) or more performance
using the int-8 data type.
Despite the challenges of elongated refresh cycles and
macroeconomic uncertainties, GenAI capabilities on the smartphone
will drive upgrades and represent a significant opportunity for
both vendors and application developers alike. The dramatic growth
seen in 2024 will carry into 2025 with shipments of GenAI
smartphones expected to grow 73.1% year over year. Moderate
double-digit growth is expected for the rest of the forecast
period. By 2028, IDC forecasts 912 million GenAI smartphone
shipments, resulting in a 2024-2028 compound annual growth rate
(CAGR) of 78.4%.
"The rapid incorporation of GenAI in smartphones is
unprecedented in mobile history with market penetration expected to
exceed 60% within the first three years," said Nabila Popal, senior
research director with IDC's Worldwide Tracker Team. "However, the
most significant impact of this evolution is anticipated in 2026,
when mid-range devices are expected to adopt this technology,
making a momentous leap towards the democratization of GenAI. While
it is still too early to know all the use cases that will emerge in
the coming years, one thing is for sure, GenAI will completely
transform the way we interact with our smartphones."
While the sales of GenAI smartphones in the first year or two
will likely be limited to flagship devices, the future holds even
more exciting developments. As phones capable of running GenAI on
the device become more prevalent, the potential for more
personalized and proactive AI assistants becomes increasingly
likely. This evolution, driven by consumer demand, application
developments, and overall industry growth, promises to make the
next decade the most exciting period for the smartphone market.
"GenAI smartphones are inevitable and look to be the next big
thing the industry has to offer consumers," said Anthony Scarsella,
research director, Mobile Phones at IDC. "The triple-digit growth
in 2024 will be followed by four consecutive years of double-digit
growth as device manufacturers look to incorporate GenAI capable
features across their device offerings. The cost will remain a
critical inhibitor initially as many of the capable chipsets don't
come cheap and are available primarily in the ultra-premium segment
of the market. However, over time, we believe these components will
enter the mid-market and more affordable models as competition
grows among device manufacturers and AI applications."
The IDC report, Worldwide Generative AI Smartphone Forecast,
2024–2028: July 2024 (Doc #US52412224), presents an updated
five-year forecast for GenAI-capable smartphone shipments worldwide
by operating system. The forecast leverages data from the IDC
Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, as well as information
gathered through extensive, structured interviews with most major
device vendors and supplemented with various secondary sources.
About IDC
International Data Corporation (IDC) is the premier global
provider of market intelligence, advisory services, and events for
the information technology, telecommunications, and consumer
technology markets. With more than 1,300 analysts worldwide, IDC
offers global, regional, and local expertise on technology, IT
benchmarking and sourcing, and industry opportunities and trends in
over 110 countries. IDC's analysis and insight helps IT
professionals, business executives, and the investment community to
make fact-based technology decisions and to achieve their key
business objectives. Founded in 1964, IDC is a wholly owned
subsidiary of International Data Group (IDG), the world's leading
tech media, data, and marketing services company. To learn more
about IDC, please visit www.idc.com. Follow IDC on Twitter at @IDC
and LinkedIn. Subscribe to the IDC Blog for industry news and
insights.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240730660187/en/
Anthony Scarsella ascarsella@idc.com +1 508-935-4712
Nabila Popal npopal@idc.com +1 508-872-8200
Michael Shirer press@idc.com +1 508-935-4200