The Hidden Forces Behind Bitcoin Price: Latest Insights From On-Chain Data
17 Mayo 2024 - 2:30AM
NEWSBTC
Leading on-chain analyst James Check, popularly known as
Checkmatey, has recently delved into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s
market dynamics, offering a detailed on-chain data analysis that
sheds light on the forces driving Bitcoin prices. His latest
insights highlight a period he describes as “Quiet and Trending,”
suggesting a robust underpinning despite significant sell-side
pressures and shifts in volatility. Bitcoin Follows The
Stair-Stepping Rally-Consolidation-Rally Pattern Since December,
Bitcoin has experienced substantial sell-side pressure, with over
1.5 million BTC being sold. “Around 30% of this came out of GBTC,
but the rest of it was good old fashioned profit taking,” Check
explains. Despite such substantial market sales, Bitcoin has
demonstrated resilience with a relatively modest price correction
of just -20%. This suggests that the foundational support levels
for Bitcoin are stronger than what surface-level market movements
might imply. A striking aspect of Check’s analysis is the
transformation in Bitcoin’s volatility profile. “The overall
realized volatility profile for Bitcoin is half what it was in
2021, and 3x smaller than 2017,” states Check. This trend indicates
a growing maturity within the Bitcoin market, reflecting its
evolution into a more stable asset over time compared to its early
years. Check counters the typical narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s
volatility: “What a lot of people forget however is that Bitcoin is
volatile to the upside. Volatility to the upside is good!” He
posits that the current increment in volatility is moderate and
suggests that the market is still in the early phases of a bull
run, rather than nearing its end. Related Reading: Most Important
Bitcoin Indicator Nears Bullish Flip: $150,000 Soon? A critical
tool in Check’s analysis is the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV)
Ratio, which he uses to gauge market sentiment and phases.
According to Check, this ratio consistently finds support at 1.0
and resistance at 1.4 during stable uptrends. Stability is
maintained as long as the ratio remains within these bounds. “Only
when it breaks above this ceiling do things become unstable,” Check
notes, which could signal a transition to bearish conditions.
Despite the sell-off that brought Bitcoin down to $57k, Check
observes that this has not significantly dented the profitability
of short-term holders. “The magnitude of Unrealised Loss was very
much in line with bull market corrections, calming fears of a
top-heavy market.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Rally Over? Top
Analysts Predict Imminent Price Corrections He further highlights
that several of the local top buyers panic sold their Bitcoin at
the lows, an action he interprets as beneficial for the correction
phase, serving to stabilize the market by shaking out weak hands.
Expanding his analysis, Check refutes the criticism that Bitcoin’s
volatility makes it a less viable asset. He points to a chart
comparison of Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility against top-performing US
stocks, showing that Bitcoin’s volatility is well within a
manageable range. Furthermore, he discusses the lower realized
volatility of the SPY index, attributing it to the “out sized
performance of the Magnificent-7,” which is counterbalanced by the
poorer performance of the other components. By highlighting the
structural aspects of the current “Quiet and Trending” market
phase, Check offers a refined perspective on how Bitcoin is
navigating its maturation pathway, balancing between its
speculative origins and its potential as a mainstream financial
asset. He concludes, “Overall, the Bitcoin uptrend in 2023-24 looks
fairly structured, following stair-stepping
rally-consolidation-rally pattern. However, as the charts above
show, volatility tends to pick up during a consolidation, and that
can lead to instability.” At press time, BTC traded at $66,288.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
TRON (COIN:TRXUSD)
Gráfica de Acción Histórica
De May 2024 a Jun 2024
TRON (COIN:TRXUSD)
Gráfica de Acción Histórica
De Jun 2023 a Jun 2024