MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Eurozone economic bulletin; Germany June manufacturing orders,
June manufacturing turnover; Bank of England rate decision, UK July
monthly car registration figures, July consttruction PMI; updates
from Lufthansa, Merck, Adidas, Bayer, Hannover Rueck, Beiersdorf,
Zalando, Credit Agricole, Pirelli, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena,
Glencore, Rolls-Royce, Evraz, Serco Group, Mondi, Hikma
Pharmaceuticals, ING Group, VEON, Novo Nordisk, Informa, Next,
Impala Platinum
Opening Call:
Overnight gains on Wall Street should support gains early
Thursday. In Asia, major stock benchmarks rose, alongside oil and
gold; Treasury yields were mixed.
Equities:
European stock futures point to gains at the open on
Thursday.
U.S. stocks rose Wednesday on the strength of fresh earnings
reports and a key reading on the services sector, shrugging off
pressure from geopolitical concerns over Speaker Pelosi's Taiwan
visit and further comments from Fed officials that the central bank
is likely to continue raising interest rates at coming
meetings.
After opening August with two straight losing sessions, stocks
gained on "generally upbeat risk sentiment," said StoneX Financial
analyst Matt Weller. Corporate earnings and the ISM report have
mitigated fears of an imminent recession, he said.
Earnings have been pretty good in terms of beating expectations,
said Olivier Marciot, global macro portfolio manager at Unigestion,
but the market has bigger problems as well. "There is still a lot
of inflation, central banks are keeping that hawkish rhetoric and
we get some geopolitics on top of that," he said.
In the U.K., the Bank of England is expected to raise its key
rate by 50 basis points today.
Forex:
The dollar edged lower in Asia as risk appetite returned.
"Implied volatility is falling and risk-sensitive currencies are
recovering after US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's aircraft exited
Taiwanese airspace without triggering a military response from
China," said Corpay's Karl Schamotta.
"Commodities are firmer, equity indices are marching higher, and
safe haven currencies--the dollar, yen, and Swiss franc--are back
on the defensive as traders position ahead of what is expected to
be a strong non-farm payrolls report on Friday," the chief market
strategist said.
Bonds:
Treasury yields were mixed in Asia.
Overnight, "Wednesday was a day of confirmation; 2s/10s inverted
further, reaching -37 basis points (bp) -- confirming our target
zone of -40 bp to -55 bp remains relevant (and perhaps
insufficiently ambitious). 10-year yields confirm 2.75% was a more
compelling focal point than 3.00%," BMO Capital Markets said.
"A dizzying array of Fed speakers reiterated that inflation
remains enemy number one for the real economy -- leaving the debate
between 50 bp and 75 bp as the most relevant discussion for
September," BMO said.
FOMC members in speeches, the FOMC minutes and the U.S. CPI
report next week are expected to make the case that the fed funds
rate has considerable upside from current levels, CBA said.
Energy:
Oil futures rose in Asia, recovering from overnight losses as
front-month WTI futures ended at a nearly six-month low, after U.S.
government data showed an unexpected rise in crude and gasoline
inventories.
However, despite factors such as still very low product and
crude inventories, the recent loosening in global supply-demand
conditions and demand risks coming from the U.S. and China suggest
crude oil could move materially below the $90/bbl level, said Bart
Melek, TD's head of commodity strategy.
Metals:
Gold edged higher in Asian trading after closing lower
overnight.
The precious metal may be weighed by risk appetite spurred by
overnight gains on Wall Street and strong U.S. economic data.
But the main driver for gold will probably be Wall Street's
assessment of how many more massive rate increases the Fed will
conduct until it enters a period of keeping policy steady, said
Oanda senior market analyst Edward Moya.
"It looks like the chances of a 75 basis-point rate increase at
the September FOMC meeting are very much on the table and that
might keep the dollar supported, which should make it hard for gold
to rally above the $1,800 level for now," Moya added.
--
Copper advanced in Asia in a possible technical rebound after
the three-month LME copper contract fell to its weakest intraday
level since July 27.
Last month's soft global manufacturing data add to Citi's view
that weakness in base metals will probably continue for the next
six to nine months on the back of a Europe-led global economic
slowdown, the bank said.
Citi remains bearish on copper and nickel.
--
Chinese iron-ore futures declined, weakening after a recent
rally.
Market expectations of higher steel production have been rather
sufficiently reflected after a strong iron-ore price rebound in the
past week, Guotai Junan Futures said.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Top Fed officials back aggressive interest-rate hikes until
inflation eases
A bevy of top officials at the Federal Reserve said this week
that the central bank needs to raise interest rates a lot higher
and keep them high for awhile to contain the worst inflation in
almost 41 years, even if tighter money risks a recession.
The Fed is "nowhere near" being done in its fight against
inflation, said Mary Daly, the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank
president, in a CNBC interview Tuesday.
China's Military Exercises Around Taiwan Put Major Shipping
Lanes at Risk
China's plans for military exercises around Taiwan threaten to
temporarily disrupt supply chains as shipping companies look to
avoid the area, an important waterway for cargo.
Beijing is preparing live-fire military exercises from Thursday
through Sunday in areas encircling Taiwan and in the Taiwan Strait.
While the designated zones mainly lie in international waters, some
of them are close to Taiwan's major ports.
Russian Oil Cap Push Faces Doubts From Energy, Finance
Industry
WASHINGTON-A Biden administration proposal to cap the price of
Russian oil is facing skepticism from some oil analysts and
financiers who question whether the U.S. and its allies can
effectively dictate the global sales price for a major supplier of
oil.
Officials from the White House, Treasury Department and Energy
Department have hosted a series of calls and meetings in recent
weeks with banks, maritime insurers and oil companies about the
price-cap idea, according to people familiar with the meetings.
Those talks come on top of a range of diplomatic efforts with
China, Europe and others to build support for the novel plan.
OPEC, Allies Agree to Modest Increase in Oil Production
OPEC and its allies agreed to a small increase in oil production
Wednesday following calls by the U.S. and other major consumers for
more supply, but the symbolic move is expected to have a minimal
impact on crude prices.
The Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
was under some pressure after President Biden said he expected
Riyadh to help boost global supplies following a high-profile trip
to the kingdom last month. But OPEC needs to coordinate its
production plan with a coalition of Russia-led producers with which
it has an enduring alliance. Moscow prefers high prices.
Nuclear Power Plants Could Stay Open, Says Germany
BERLIN-German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said for the first time
that his government could postpone the planned closure of its
remaining nuclear reactors, as he criticized a decision by Russia
to constrain gas flows to Germany-a move that could deal a severe
blow to Europe's largest economy.
Last month, Russia shut down for maintenance its giant Nord
Stream pipeline, which connects Russia and Germany under the Baltic
Sea and is operated by Russian state-owned energy producer Gazprom
PJSC.
Iran Nuclear Negotiators to Meet in Last-Ditch Effort to Revive
Deal
Iran, the U.S. and the European Union said Wednesday that they
would send negotiators to Vienna for what could be make-or-break
talks on reviving the 2015 nuclear agreement with Tehran, but
expectations of an agreement weren't high after months of stalled
negotiations.
A senior Western official said the latest Vienna talks, which
will start Thursday, were a chance to agree on the final points of
a deal to revive the nuclear pact. That agreement lifted most
international sanctions on Iran in exchange for tight but temporary
restrictions on its nuclear work.
U.S. Senate Ratifies Adding Finland and Sweden to NATO
The U.S. Senate overwhelmingly ratified the addition of Finland
and Sweden as members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a
move leaders of both parties portrayed as key to American security
around the world following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
The resolution passed 95-1 after Senate Majority Leader Chuck
Schumer (D., N.Y.) and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.)
urged lawmakers to support the measure.
Russia Claims Capture of Donbas Position Long Held by Ukrainian
Forces
KYIV, Ukraine-Russia claimed to have captured a major strategic
position held by Ukraine's forces since 2015, marking what would be
Moscow's first notable advance in the country's east since it began
relocating forces ahead of an expected Ukrainian counteroffensive
in the south.
Ukraine's armed forces denied the Russians had advanced around
Avdiivka near the Russian-held city of Donetsk, saying that Russia
had shelled the area overnight and had unsuccessfully tried to
improve its tactical position there, retreating with losses. They
didn't provide further details.
Write to hoishan.chan@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Thursday
00:01/IRL: Jul Ireland Services PMI
04:30/NED: Jul CPI
06:00/GER: Jun Manufacturing orders
06:00/GER: Jun Manufacturing turnover
06:00/NOR: Jun Credit Indicator C2
08:00/UK: Jul UK monthly car registrations figures
08:00/ICE: Jun Labour Force Survey
08:30/UK: Jul S&P Global / CIPS UK Construction PMI
09:00/CRO: Jul PPI
09:00/CYP: Jul CPI
10:00/IRL: Jul Monthly Unemployment
11:00/UK: Bank of England Monetary Policy Report
11:00/UK: UK interest rate decision
12:30/CZE: Czech interest rate decision
23:01/UK: Jul BRC-Sensormatic IQ Footfall Monitor
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
August 04, 2022 00:32 ET (04:32 GMT)
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