Redfin reports that the U.S. home turnover rate
is the lowest it's been in at least 30 years with just 25 of every
1,000 homes selling so far in 2024
(NASDAQ: RDFN) — Just 25 out of every 1,000 U.S. homes changed
hands in the first eight months of 2024, the lowest turnover rate
in decades, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the
technology-powered real estate brokerage.
Redfin conducted an analysis of housing turnover by comparing
the first eight months of 2024 across different metro areas, home
and neighborhood types. The company is using turnover as a measure
of housing availability; it indicates how often homes are sold in a
given area.
Redfin’s analysis used data from between 2012-2024, but zooming
out further, this year’s turnover rate is the lowest in at least
the past 30 years. Existing home sales were similar in the
early-mid 1990s, but the number of homes that existed was much
smaller—meaning the turnover rate was higher.
There were 37.5% fewer homes sold this year than during the
middle of the pandemic buying frenzy in 2021 (40 of every 1,000)
and 31% fewer homes sold than during the last pre-pandemic year in
2019 (36 of every 1,000).
Homes are changing hands at historically low rates for a number
of interconnected reasons, including:
- Elevated mortgage rates: More than three-quarters of
mortgaged U.S. homeowners have secured a rate under 5%, well below
the rates on offer this year, which peaked at 7.52% in April. This
has prompted many homeowners to hold off on selling and buying
another home using a higher rate, a phenomenon known as the
“lock-in effect.” Rates fell to the low 6% range in August, but the
drop has not yet resulted in a significant uptick in sales.
- Rising prices and low supply: U.S. home prices have hit
record highs this year, with just enough buyer demand to keep
prices consistently ticking up. While the number of homes on the
market has increased from a year ago, there are far fewer homes
listed for sale compared to pre-pandemic levels.
- Economic and political uncertainty: Many buyers and
sellers have taken a wait-and-see approach this year amid talk of a
possible recession and ahead of a closely fought U.S. Presidential
election between two candidates with contrasting economic and
housing policies. Many are also taking their time to better
understand the new rules relating to real estate agent fees.
“Mortgage rates have already fallen more than one percentage
point from their 2024 peak, but we have not yet seen a significant
increase in the number of homes changing hands. Of the homes listed
this year, many have gone stale because of the lack of
demand—especially homes which needed a little extra work,” said
Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. “With the majority of
homeowners locked into low mortgages, rates will need to keep
falling consistently for many to feel comfortable moving on from
the deals they secured years ago.”
Listings are also at the lowest level in over a
decade
The rate of homes being listed for sale also fell in the first
eight months, to the lowest level since at least 2012, the earliest
year with listings data available.
Just 32 out of every 1,000 homes were listed for sale in the
first eight months of 2024. That rate is down 30% from before the
pandemic in 2019 (46 listings per 1,000 homes) and 29% down from
during the pandemic-driven buying spree in 2021 (45 listings per
1,000 homes).
Homes in suburban and rural areas change hands slightly more
often than urban homes
Around 25 out of every 1,000 single family homes and
condos/townhouses in suburban and rural areas sold in the first
eight months of the year, a slightly higher clip than the roughly
24 out of every 1,000 homes which sold in urban areas.
Since 2019, the turnover rate for single family homes in
suburban and rural areas dropped 32.9%, while condos/townhouses
dropped 37.6%. In comparison, the turnover rate for single family
homes in urban areas dropped 25.8%, while the rate for
condos/townhouses fell 35.2%.
Looking at the change over just the past year, the turnover rate
has fallen across all property types in all areas, with
condos/townhouses seeing the biggest declines overall. This is
because condo inventory increased nationwide, with sales falling
due to rising HOA and insurance costs.
Homebuyers have the biggest pool of options in Phoenix and
Newark, NJ
A number of Sun Belt cities and metros adjacent to New York led
the list of major metros with the highest turnover rate, based on
Redfin’s analysis of the 50 most-populous metros.
Phoenix saw the most turnover of the major metros, with 38 out
of every 1,000 homes changing hands. It was followed by Newark, NJ
(37 of every 1,000), Nashville, TN (36 of every 1,000) and Tampa,
FL (35 of every 1,000).
Metro Areas With Highest Turnover
Metro Area
2024 Sales
(Per 1,000 Homes)
2019 → 2024
Difference
Phoenix, AZ
37.7
-43.2%
Newark, NJ
36.7
-41.4%
Nashville, TN
36.4
-46.4%
Tampa, FL
35.1
-35.6%
Nassau County, NY
31.2
-33.1%
St. Louis, MO
30.0
-28.7%
Austin, TX
29.9
-49%
Denver, CO
29.6
-29.5%
Jacksonville, FL
28.7
-45.3%
Detroit, MI
28.1
-20.3%
Those same three cities also topped the list in 2019—albeit in a
slightly different order. Sun Belt metros like Phoenix and
Nashville maintained relatively strong activity throughout the
pandemic, as workers looked for affordable places to live and work
from home. Commuter metros like Newark and Nassau County, NY
continue to turn over at a higher rate due to the appeal of
suburban living close to New York.
Every metro area saw at least 10% fewer homes change hands this
year compared to 2019, but San Jose, CA recorded the smallest drop
(-13.7%), followed by San Francisco (-18.1%) and Detroit (-14.6%),
which also jumped to 10th on the list of major metros with the
highest turnover.
Homes change hands least often in Los Angeles
California contains seven of the 10 metros with the lowest
turnover levels in the first eight months of the year. Los Angeles
had the lowest turnover rate of any metro Redfin analyzed, with
only 15 out of every 1,000 homes changing hands this year.
Metro Areas With Lowest Turnover
Metro Area
2024 Sales
(Per 1,000 Homes)
2019 → 2024
Difference
Los Angeles, CA
15.2
-32%
Boston, MA
15.6
-37.8%
San Francisco, CA
16.6
-18.1%
Oakland, CA
17.1
-32.2%
Anaheim, CA
17.1
-33.2%
San Jose, CA
17.3
-13.7%
Providence, RI
17.5
-41.0%
Montgomery County, PA
17.9
-36.4%
Sacramento, CA
18.1
-39.5%
San Diego, CA
18.4
-38.4%
That’s no surprise: California has historically had low housing
turnover due to the state’s tax laws, especially proposition 13,
which incentivizes homeowners to stay put by limiting property-tax
increases.
Despite the lower turnover rate in California, the only major
metros to see more homes change hands in 2024, compared to 2023,
were the three Bay Area metros—San Jose (+13.1%), San Francisco
(+3.5%) and Oakland (+1.6%).
Austin saw the biggest decrease in turnover rate from five years
ago, recording 30 sales for every 1,000 homes this year, a 49% drop
from 59 of every 1,000 in 2019.
To view the full report, including charts, additional metro
level data and a detailed methodology, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/home-sales-turnover-2024/
About Redfin
Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate
company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage,
rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We run
the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our customers can save
thousands in fees while working with a top agent. Our home-buying
customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and
title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home
can have our renovations crew fix it up to sell for top dollar. Our
rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments
and houses for rent. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers
more than $1.6 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100
markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 4,000
people.
Redfin’s subsidiaries and affiliated brands include: Bay Equity
Home Loans®, Rent.™, Apartment Guide®, Title Forward® and
WalkScore®.
For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate
agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends
and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to
Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com.
To view Redfin's press center, click here.
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version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240930067554/en/
Redfin Journalist Services: Angela Cherry press@redfin.com
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