Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Here’s What 7 Experts Say
25 Junio 2024 - 1:30AM
NEWSBTC
The market saw a dramatic Bitcoin price drop over the past two
days, plunging from a high of $64,500 on Sunday to a low of
$58,474. Yesterday’s steep decline followed an unexpected
announcement from the trustee of the defunct Mt. Gox exchange,
revealing plans to commence BTC and BCH payouts in early July—a
move that has sent shockwaves through the market. This news raises
urgent questions about the immediate future of Bitcoin’s price
trajectory. Amidst this market turmoil, several prominent
cryptocurrency analysts have weighed in, offering their insights on
whether Bitcoin could be nearing a local bottom. Here is a deeper
dive into their analysis and perspectives: Bitcoin Technical
Analysis Tony “The Bull” Severino, Chief Analyst at NewsBTC,
provided a technical breakdown of the current situation. Utilizing
the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that
measures the speed and change of price movements, Severino pointed
out that the RSI levels are now as oversold as they were during the
collapse of FTX, suggesting a potential cyclical bottom. Related
Reading: Bitcoin Forms Bullish Signal That Led To At Least 60% Jump
Last 3 Times “Bitcoin’s daily RSI is as oversold as during the FTX
collapse, indicating a cyclical bottom might be forming,” said
Severino. This analysis implies that, historically, such levels
have often preceded a rebound or at least a stabilization in price.
Volume And Market Behavior The Byzantine General, a trader and
market strategist, noted the unusually high spot volume
accompanying the price drop. “We’re seeing significantly high spot
volume, which historically can signal a local bottom,” he remarked.
High trading volumes during a price drop can indicate panic
selling, which often exhausts itself leading to potential recovery.
Social Media Sentiment Santiment, an analytics platform focusing on
social metrics, observed a spike in discussions around the term
“bottom” across various social media platforms. “This is one of the
highest spikes in social volume and dominance for the word ‘bottom’
we’ve observed in the past year,” they reported. Historically, such
spikes can signify heightened market attention that may correlate
with pivotal market movements. Related Reading: SkyBridge Capital’s
Scaramucci Says Bitcoin Will Reach $250,000 Is This US Presidential
Candidate Wins Historical Patterns And Technical Indicators Teddy
(@TeddyCleps), a cryptocurrency trader, emphasized the importance
of historical patterns and specific technical indicators such as
the 21-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). “Historically, each
correction in the BTC bull run has touched the 21-week EMA before
rebounding. We’re approaching this indicator; if history is any
guide, $61k could represent the bottom,” Teddy explained. The
21-week EMA is a key technical level watched by many traders for
signs of long-term trend support. On-Chain Data Analysis James
Check (@Checkmatey), an on-chain data analyst, shared his approach
focused more on value acquisition rather than exact timing: “My
strategy isn’t about pinpointing the absolute bottom but acquiring
Bitcoin at significant discounts, as indicated by on-chain metrics
like STH-SOPR and STH-MVRV both being below 1.” These metrics
suggest that short-term holders are selling at a loss, which can be
an opportunistic entry point for long-term investors. I prefer
acquiring sats when both STH-SOPR and STH-MVRV are below 1. I’m not
looking for bottoms, I’m looking for meaningful discounts. Love to
see it.#Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/Jou9TSH3A9 — _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️
(@_Checkmatey_) June 25, 2024 Historical Post-Halving Performance
Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) analyzed Bitcoin’s performance in
post-halving periods, referring to the event where Bitcoin mining
rewards are halved, theoretically increasing its scarcity. “BTC has
not broken the high nor lost the low of its ReAccumulation Range in
any post-halving period. This historical precedent suggests that
Bitcoin should hold these levels,” he outlined. Market Psychology
Cred (@CryptoCred), another respected trader, offered another angle
and is not convinced the bottom is already in: “If this is the BTC
bottom, I am likely to miss it. Often, a market that fails to break
down at a level, only to return and close below it later, indicates
a more legitimate breakdown. I’m not shorting but am also not
buying.” At press time, BTC traded at $61,014. Featured image
created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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