Global eCommerce Transactions Expected To Surge by 14% During 2023 Holiday Season, Friendly Fraud Looms as the Biggest Spoiler
24 Octubre 2023 - 8:00AM
Business Wire
- A 14% increase in global eCommerce transactions is anticipated
during the holiday season, with the gaming sector leading the
expected transaction growth
- Buy now, pay later (BNPL) transactions are expected to triple
as consumers look to stretch their dollars under inflationary
pressures
- Fraud attempts are expected to grow to 3% of all transactions,
with friendly fraud making up 20% of all fraud threats
Global eCommerce transactions are expected to rise 14% from
October through December 2023 compared to the same period last
year, according to data analysis from millions of eCommerce
transactions conducted by ACI Worldwide (NASDAQ: ACIW), a leading
global provider of real-time digital payments software. Fraud
attempts are predicted to grow to 3% of all transactions, with
friendly fraud posing the most substantial threat, accounting for
20% of all fraud risks. Friendly fraud occurs when a customer
places an order using their payment details and then raises a
dispute to recoup the cost of the item while retaining the item or
by returning a used item.
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"The anticipated rise of friendly fraud is poised to be the top
threat this holiday season," said Erika Dietrich, head of fraud
management and payment analytics, at ACI Worldwide. "Vigilant
monitoring of chargebacks and thorough scrutiny of orders and
personal information is crucial for merchants to counter policy
abusers. Implementing multilayered fraud solutions such as digital
identity verification and AI-based authentication can effectively
thwart malicious activities and avoid revenue leaks."
Buy now, pay later (BNPL) is favored by consumers and
fraudsters
According to ACI data, BNPL transaction volumes doubled in Q3
2023 versus 2022, with a 130% increase in transaction value for the
same time frame due to inflated prices. Consumers are leaning
towards BNPL as a flexible payments option to purchase without
immediate financial strain, especially for high-value products
above $150. While BNPL has been heralded as a win for consumers and
merchants alike, it has drawbacks in policy abuse and friendly
fraud, with consumers defaulting on repayments or illegitimately
raising disputes. The fraud attempts for BNPL transactions
increased by nearly 6% in Q3 2023 compared to last year and is
predicted to rise by a further 2% during the holiday season.
Keep tabs on new customer accounts
Merchants should exercise caution with new customer accounts —
created in the last 30 days — as they are particularly vulnerable
to fraudulent activity. According to ACI data from January to
September 2023, new customer accounts experienced 5% higher fraud
activities than existing ones compared to last year and are
expected to grow by 5% this holiday season. New accounts lack
transaction history, making it harder to gauge the legitimacy of
purchases.
"Amid economic uncertainties, consumers are expected to actively
pursue discounted products and embrace flexible payment methods to
alleviate financial strains. With merchants eyeing revenue growth
and budget-conscious buyers scouting for deals, this holiday season
presents a promising opportunity for both sides, contingent on
effective safeguards against potential threats," said Bobby
Koscheski, head of merchant segment, ACI Worldwide.
Key predictions at a glance
eCommerce purchasing trends (Q4 2023 vs.
2022):
- Cyber Monday takes the lead in transaction volume growth
predictions by key dates at 19%, followed by the Sunday prior to
Cyber Monday at 9%, the Saturday after Black Friday at 6%, Black
Friday at 5% and Thanksgiving at 2%.
- Gaming emerges as the leading sector in the predicted
transaction volume growth at 180%, followed by telco at 12%, retail
at 9% and travel at 3%.
Payment trends (Q4 2023 vs.
2022):
- The key payment method predictions for percentage growth
highlight the remarkable surge of BNPL, which is expected to
triple, followed by buy online and pick up in-store (BOPIS) at 16%,
eWallet at 15%, credit/debit card at 4% and mobile payment at
3%.
Fraud trends:
- Predictions for Q4 2023 reveal friendly fraud as the leading
threat, with an anticipated attempt percentage of 20%, followed by
3% for account takeover and 1% for promotional abuse.
Consumers today have myriad ways to make payments, and
macroeconomic forces such as inflation have significantly
influenced and reshaped consumer payment habits. The emergence of
alternative payment methods also facilitated fraud and policy abuse
proliferation. Technologically adept merchants can stay ahead of
this curve by embracing a cohesive fraud strategy that combines
consortium intelligence, profiling, AI machine learning and
rules.
For more insights into our holiday predictions, click here to
download the report, or visit https://www.aciworldwide.com/.
*Holiday season/Q4 refers to the period of October through
December.
About ACI Worldwide
ACI Worldwide is a global leader in mission-critical, real-time
payments software. Our proven, secure and scalable software
solutions enable leading corporations, fintech companies and
financial disruptors to process and manage digital payments, power
omni-commerce payments, present and process bill payments, and
manage fraud and risk. We combine our global footprint with a local
presence to drive the real-time digital transformation of payments
and commerce.
© Copyright ACI Worldwide, Inc. 2023
ACI, ACI Worldwide, ACI Payments, Inc., ACI Pay, Speedpay and
all ACI product/solution names are trademarks or registered
trademarks of ACI Worldwide, Inc., or one of its subsidiaries, in
the United States, other countries or both. Other parties'
trademarks referenced are the property of their respective
owners.
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Media
Nick Karoglou | Head of Communications and Corporate Affairs |
nick.karoglou@aciworldwide.com
Lyn Kwek | Communications and Corporate Affairs Director,
APAC/South Asia | lyn.kwek@aciworldwide.com
Katrin Boettger| Communications and Corporate Affairs Director,
EMEA | katrin.boettger@aciworldwide.com
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