MARKET WRAPS
Watch For:
Euro area inflation flash estimate; Germany unemployment; France
provisional CPI, PPI, detailed GDP figures, housing starts,
consumer spending, Italy provisional CPI, GDP; trading updates from
Fresenius Medical Care, Hapag-Lloyd, IAG, SAS, Renishaw, Evraz
Opening Call:
Shares may notch gains at Wednesday's open after China outlined
plans to bolster Covid-19 vaccinations, boosting hopes for the end
of lockdowns. In Asia, major stock benchmarks were mostly higher;
Treasury yields fell; the dollar slipped; while oil and gold were
firmer. In Asia, stock benchmarks were mostly higher; Treasury
yields fell; the dollar slipped; while oil and gold were
firmer.
Equities:
European shares appear set to open on a firm note on Wednesday
after closing mixed overnight, as investors focus on an upcoming
speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, as well as
progress in China's eventual reopening.
The market is overall skeptical about the more positive China
developments, but the same can't be said of the FTSE 100, IG
said.
"Solid gains from Asia-focused names HSBC and Standard Chartered
show that at least some investors think the government in China
will respond by loosening Covid restrictions, while the lower
dollar has boosted commodity prices and thus given the raw
materials and energy sector a boost," IG said.
China's government has said it will prioritize increasing
vaccination rates among the elderly, which is seen as a sign that
the country is slowly progressing towards reopening, SPI Asset
Management noted.
Whatever Powell says at the Brookings Institution could be a
preview of the next rate-setting meeting on Dec. 13-14, said UBS
Global Wealth Management.
There is some concern that a hawkish tone from Powell could undo
the gains that equities have made over the past two months.
"There's a little bit of fear," UBS Global said.
Forex:
The dollar was weaker ahead of Powell's speech and key U.S. data
later in the week.
"Optimism that China may be inching away from Covid-zero has
lifted too, but the path is likely to be a gradual one, and U.S.
stocks came off overnight despite China's strong showing
yesterday," ANZ said.
Forex markets are seeing a lot of themes other than Fed rate
increases, Silicon Valley Bank said. "It's not just dollar up or
dollar down vs. everything."
China is dominating headlines, Silicon Valley Bank said, with
some optimism on signs of the economy reopening. That's not only
strengthening the renminbi but also commodity currencies "with the
assumption that a fully functioning Chinese economy is good for
commodities," it said.
Meanwhile Germany's CPI came in softer than expected, but
inflation there is still in the double digits, it said, with "the
euro catching some weakness on that."
Bonds:
Treasury yields weakened ahead of U.S. employment data, and with
investors absorbing the latest hawkish comments from Fed officials,
who indicated they will probably leave borrowing costs high for
years to come.
The odds of a 75-basis-point rate increase in December rose to
32.5% in the CME's FedWatch tool, from 24.2% a week ago. The
highest odds are for a 50-basis-point rate hike.
Investors have also recently been considering the prospects of
slowing global economic growth, stemming from Covid-19 lockdowns in
China and Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Treasury curve remains
at one of its most negative levels since 1981-1982.
The ADP November report is expected to show a slowdown in job
creation.
Energy:
Oil prices rose in Asia, extending overnight gains amid hopes
that China, the world's largest oil importer, might loosen its
Covid-19 restrictions.
"The hope stems from the conciliatory tone taken by China's
National Health Commission, particularly the concession that there
was an excessive implementation of Covid controls," CBA said.
"The announcement follows unprecedented street protests against
President Xi [Jinping], and is the first indication that Beijing
may be considering a relaxation of its draconian Covid-control
policies. The prospect of a return to normality, in an economy that
is the world's largest oil importer, was enough to make oil prices
jump, in the first significant price rebound of the last two
weeks," ActivTrades said.
Market focus will also be on the OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 4, where
members will decide on oil-production levels.
"We think the group will keep output levels unchanged,
particularly given the group is set to meet virtually," CBA
added.
Metals:
Gold was little changed, after rising overnight as the dollar
stabilized.
The precious metal may be supported in the near term, if China's
health authority offers some clear signals that the country is
close to tweaking the zero-Covid policy, Oanda said.
"Gold needs a strong China as it drives risk appetite and could
bolster demand for jewelry," Oanda added.
"A potential recovery in the dollar and still-rising interest
rates around the world means investors might shy away from low- and
zero-yielding assets like gold," said Fawad Razaqzada, market
analyst at City Index and Forex.com.
The factor that "matters the most" is the Federal Reserve's
stance towards its monetary policy, said AvaTrade.
A strong U.S. jobs number, due out Friday, could make the Fed
think about its monetary policy, it said. The central bank "could
adopt an ultra-hawkish monetary policy like before but so far, "the
hope...is that the Fed will slow the roll in terms of increasing
the interest rate."
---
Base metals prices rose. Prices are stronger amid signs that
China may be loosening some of its restrictive measures of their
Covid-zero policies, ANZ said.
Following the weekend protests, the country is now pushing for
greater vaccination of the elderly, driving speculation that
Covid-related restrictions could be eased further, the bank
added.
---
Chinese iron-ore futures fell, taking a breather after a recent
uptrend.
The steelmaking material could come under pressure from
seasonality factors and Covid-19 outbreaks across China that are
hampering demand for steel, Guotai Junan Futures said.
However, the supportive measures that regulators rolled out
recently for the real-estate sector may help buoy sentiment toward
the raw material in the near term, it added.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
China's Factory, Construction, Service Activities Contract
Further in November
China's official gauges measuring factory, construction and
service activities slipped further into contraction in November,
weighed by the country's stringent Covid restrictions that have
throttled production, along with a deepening property slump and
slowing global demand.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to
48.0 in November, down from 49.2 in October, the National Bureau of
Statistics said Wednesday. It was also lower than the 48.9 reading
expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal and the
lowest level since April, when Shanghai-China's financial and
manufacturing hub-was locked down.
China Officials Soften Tone on Covid Curbs Amid Protests
Chinese health officials softened their messaging on the risks
of Covid-19, urging local governments to avoid unnecessary and
lengthy lockdowns, after protesters across the country denounced
the strict controls.
The Omicron variant has caused fewer deaths and less severe
sickness than previous Covid variants, a health official said at a
press conference Tuesday.
OPEC+ Leans Toward Maintaining Flat Production, Delegates
Say
OPEC and other big oil producers are likely to decide to keep
output levels flat at their meeting Sunday, the group's delegates
said, amid mounting concerns over returning Covid-related lockdowns
in China and lingering uncertainty over Russia's ability to
pump.
The 13-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
and a separate group of producers led by Russia-collectively as
OPEC+-are leaning toward approving the same production levels
agreed to in October, when they greenlighted a 2 million barrels a
day output cut, the delegates said. Sunday's meeting was planned to
take place in person at OPEC's headquarters in Vienna, but it will
now be held remotely to avoid negative media scrutiny, the
delegates said.
RBC Bets on Immigration in $10.1 Billion HSBC Canada Deal
Royal Bank of Canada said it would pay US$10.1 billion for HSBC
Holdings PLC's Canadian operations, a move meant to position
Canada's biggest bank to expand during an expected immigration
surge.
HSBC, a London-based bank with a huge Hong Kong presence, serves
more than 780,000 customers through 130 branches in Canada. As part
of the deal, it will refer clients who are moving to Canada to RBC,
said Dave McKay, RBC's chief executive.
Twitter's Former Trust and Safety Chief Says He Left When System
of Governance Went Away
Yoel Roth, Twitter Inc.'s former head of trust and safety, said
several factors led to his decision to leave the platform after
almost eight years, including the disruptions created by rapid-fire
changes from the company's new owner.
He said he left the company following the botched launch of the
upgraded Twitter Blue subscription program after Chief Executive
Elon Musk ignored his team's warnings about possible issues tied to
the rollout.
Rio Tinto Plans $600 Million Investment in Solar, Battery
Storage for Australia's Pilbara
Rio Tinto PLC said it intends to invest $600 million to build
two solar farms and battery storage in Australia's Pilbara region,
to help lower the emissions from its iron-ore mining operations
there.
The world's second-biggest miner by market value said it plans
to construct two 100-megawatt solar-power facilities and
200-megawatt-hours of on-grid battery storage in the remote part of
northwest Australia by 2026.
Twitter Under Elon Musk Abandons Covid-19 Misinformation
Policy
Twitter Inc. has stopped enforcing a policy aimed at curbing the
spread of Covid-19 misinformation on its platform in the company's
latest move to loosen moderation guidelines on the site.
The social-media company announced the change by placing a
notice on its website, saying it was no longer policing Covid-19
misinformation as of Nov. 23.
Write to singaporeeditors@dowjones.com
Expected Major Events for Wednesday
00:01/UK: CBI Service Sector Survey
00:01/UK: Nov Shop Price Index
05:30/NED: Oct PPI
05:30/NED: Oct Retail turnover
06:00/FIN: 3Q GDP
07:00/DEN: Oct Unemployment
07:00/DEN: 3Q Preliminary GDP
07:00/TUR: 3Q GDP
07:45/FRA: Oct Housing starts
07:45/FRA: Oct Household consumption expenditure in manufactured
goods
07:45/FRA: Oct PPI
07:45/FRA: Nov Provisional CPI
07:45/FRA: 3Q GDP - detailed figures
08:00/SPN: Oct Retail Sales
08:00/SWI: Nov KOF economic barometer
08:00/HUN: Oct PPI
08:55/GER: Nov Labour market statistics (incl unemployment)
09:00/BUL: Oct PPI
09:00/POL: 3Q GDP
09:00/ICE: 3Q GDP
09:00/ITA: 3Q GDP
10:00/MLT: Oct PPI
10:00/CRO: Oct Industrial Production Volume Index
10:00/CYP: Oct PPI
10:00/GRE: Oct PPI
10:00/GRE: Sep Turnover Index in Retail Trade
10:00/ITA: Nov Provisional CPI
10:00/ITA: Nov Cities CPI
10:00/BEL: 3Q Final GDP
10:00/LUX: Oct PPI
10:00/CRO: Oct Retail trade
10:00/EU: Nov Flash Estimate euro area inflation
11:00/POR: Oct Retail trade
11:00/POR: 3Q GDP
11:00/IRL: Nov Monthly Unemployment
15:59/UKR: Oct Industrial Production
16:59/SPN: Oct Budget deficit
16:59/SPN: Sep Monthly Balance of Payments
16:59/BEL: Oct PPI
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(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 30, 2022 00:28 ET (05:28 GMT)
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