NuVista Energy Ltd. (“NuVista” or the “Company”) (TSX:NVA) is
pleased to announce record-setting reserves, financial and
operating results for the three months and year ended December 31,
2021, and to provide a number of updates which demonstrate material
advancement of our Pipestone and Wapiti Montney development. 2021
was a year of significant commodity price recovery after the
difficult year in 2020 due to the reduction in energy demand as a
result of the Covid-19 pandemic. We used our significantly growing
adjusted funds flow in a disciplined manner by growing production
with new high-return wells to fill and optimize existing facilities
while making rapid and meaningful progress in debt reduction.
NuVista is now moving forward through 2022 with strength and
increasing momentum in this significantly improved commodity price
environment.
During the quarter and year ended December 31, 2021,
NuVista:
- Produced 60,888 Boe/d in the
quarter, well above the guidance range of 56,000 – 58,000 Boe/d,
and 19% higher than third quarter 2021 production. Fourth quarter
production consisted of 35% condensate, 10% NGLs, and 55% natural
gas. Full year production was 4% higher than the prior year at
52,345 Boe/d consisting of 31% condensate, 11% NGLs, and 58%
natural gas;
- 2021 net earnings totaled $264.7
million ($1.17/share, basic) compared to a net loss of $197.9
million (($0.88)/share, basic) in 2020;
- Achieved $151.7 million of adjusted
funds flow(1) in the fourth quarter ($0.67/share, basic), including
over $64.5 million of free adjusted funds flow(1). Full year
adjusted funds flow was $321.0 million, or $1.42/share (basic). The
fourth quarter adjusted funds flow represented more than a
threefold increase over comparable figure for the prior year, and
full year 2021 adjusted funds flow was two times the prior year
amount;
- Improved upon our net debt(1)
reduction target with $118.6 million of reduction during 2021,
$65.1 million of which was in the fourth quarter alone. NuVista
closed the year with a favorable net debt to annualized fourth
quarter adjusted funds flow ratio of 0.8x;
- Successfully extended the tenure of
our outstanding senior unsecured notes to July 2026 in the third
quarter of 2021;
- Executed a successful 2021 capital
expenditure(2) program of $288.8 million, including the drilling of
38 (38.0 net) wells and the completion of 44 (44.0 net) wells in
our condensate rich Wapiti Montney play; and
- Continued to significantly advance
our progress in the areas of environmental, social and governance
(“ESG”), including continued positive strides in reducing GHG and
methane emissions.
Notes:(1) Each of "adjusted funds flow" and "net
debt" are capital management measures. Reference should be made to
the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in
this press release. (2) Each of "free adjusted funds flow" and
"capital expenditures" are non-GAAP financial measures that do not
have any standardized meanings under IFRS and therefore may not be
comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where
similar terminology is used. Reference should be made to the
section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures” in this
press release.
Record Achievements in Reserve
Metrics
NuVista is pleased to report the year end 2021
independent evaluation of our reserves by GLJ Ltd. (“GLJ”) (the
“GLJ Report”). With the infrastructure investment in our assets now
largely behind us, our focus has shifted to building production
volumes and maximizing the velocity at which invested capital is
returned through exceptional half-cycle returns. Well costs
continue to trend downwards while production performance is
dramatically improving. The quality of our asset base is reflected
in additional positive technical revisions to our production base
and new records in the efficiency with which we are adding
additional reserves. Our established track record of improvement
and depth of running room in our undeveloped reserves reinforce our
ability to provide a differentiated level of value creation for our
shareholders.
Highlights of our 2021 reserves report
include:
- Proved Developed Producing (“PDP”)
reserves increased a record 26% to 122MMBoe;
- PDP Finding and Development Costs
(“F&D”) (1) achieved record lows for the fourth consecutive
year, reaching $6.12/Boe which is a 36% improvement over 2020;
- PDP Recycle Ratio(1) also achieved
new record levels at 4.4x based on our 2021 operating netback(1) of
$27.13/Boe;
- Replaced 220% of our production on
a PDP basis while only spending 90% of adjusted funds flow;
- PDP NPV10 increased to $1.5
Billion, an increase of 96% from 2020 underpinned by the dramatic
growth in reserve volumes and the increase in commodity
prices;
- PDP Finding, Development and
Acquisition Costs (“FD&A”) (1) were $4.31/Boe after accounting
for the Wembley Disposition;
- Technical revisions of +5% were
made to 2020 PDP reserves due to continued outperformance of wells
and an increase in economic limit due to higher forecast commodity
prices; and
- Total proved plus probable
additional (“TP+PA”) reserve volumes are 568MMBoe which includes
340 undeveloped locations. An additional 824 Best Estimate
Contingent Resource Undeveloped Locations are also booked.
Notes:(1) Each of FD&A costs, F&D
costs, recycle ratio and operating netback are non-GAAP financial
ratios. See "Oil and Gas Advisories" and "Non-GAAP and Other
Financial Measures" in this press release for information relating
to these specified financial measures.
The detailed summary of our year end 2021
reserves disclosure is included below, and will be included in our
Annual Information Form which will be filed on or before March 30,
2022 at www.SEDAR.com.
Excellence in Operations
As noted in our press release dated January 10,
2022, fourth quarter operations went exceptionally well. Despite
challenges with extreme cold weather, Covid-19 issues, and supply
chain disruptions, record production levels were achieved. The
stability and continuity of our three-rig drilling program has
continued to reward us as we progress through the first quarter of
2022. Production in the Wapiti area is ramping up with the addition
of the latest 4-well pad at Elmworth. Drill, Complete, and Equip
(“DCE”) costs for this pad averaged $7MM per well while the 60 day
initial production rate averaged 1,282 Boe/d per well including 27%
condensate. An additional 6-well pad at Elmworth has been drilled
and completed, and is currently being production tested. Estimated
DCE cost per well on this pad is expected to be approximately
$5.8MM. Drilling operations are in progress on a 4-well pad in the
Gold Creek area which will be completed by the end of the first
quarter.
Activity levels in the Pipestone area were high
in the fourth quarter, and have continued to be high as we proceed
into 2022. Pad #8 was drilled and completed in the
fourth quarter and is now on production. The wells on this pad were
drilled to an average horizontal length of 3000m and reached a new
Pipestone record low DCE cost of $1.9MM per 1000 horizontal meter
drilled. Pad #9 has been drilled and completion operations have
commenced, while drilling operations on pad #10 have just been
finished.
Remaining activity in 2022 is planned to include
five additional pads with approximately 25 wells, of which two
thirds are expected to be in the Pipestone area. The current
program would have two to three rigs active throughout the
remainder of the year, and due to efficient execution there is the
potential opportunity to add a few more wells to the planned
capital program to fill in any drilling breaks for maximum three
rig schedule efficiency. We have now entered the phase in Pipestone
area where we are significantly realizing the benefits of the
acquisition we completed three years ago with substantial free
adjusted funds flow being generated from this asset.
Balance Sheet Strength and Rapid Debt
Reduction
In the fourth quarter of 2021, NuVista reduced
bank debt by $69 million by continuing to direct all free adjusted
funds flow towards the reduction of net debt. With the benefit of
increased production and favorable pricing, this bettered our debt
reduction expectations, ending the quarter with bank drawings of
$196 million – a reduction of $167 million during the full year of
2021. NuVista’s credit facility capacity was redetermined and
maintained at $440 million at the semi-annual review in November.
Net debt was reduced during 2021 by a total of $119 million.
NuVista closed the year of 2021 with a favorable net debt to
annualized fourth quarter adjusted funds flow ratio of 0.8x. These
results reaffirm our confidence that we are on track for reduction
of net debt below our first targeted milestone of $400 million
during the second quarter of 2022. At the present time, 100% of
free adjusted funds flow is being directed to the reduction of
debt.
ESG Progress Continues
We are proud to continue to demonstrate our
commitment to transparency and ethical practices through our ESG
performance, and we issued an updated full report to highlight our
progress in August of 2021.
Approximately 60% of our current production is
comprised of natural gas which has the lowest carbon footprint of
any hydrocarbon, leading to our greenhouse gas (“GHG”) performance
being better than the North American benchmark. But we will always
strive to do more. In our 2021 report, we set seven long term
targets for accountability and transparency of the progress we
continue to make, and we continue to execute projects in
environment, social, and governance to ensure we meet these
targets. These include projects to eliminate methane venting,
reduce flaring, reduce water consumption, and to responsibly
abandon and reclaim legacy wells and facilities. We also progressed
in matters of Social and Governance including continued headway on
diversity and inclusion on several fronts. More details are
available in our fourth quarter 2021 MD&A and our annual ESG
report.
2022 Guidance Update
As discussed above, NuVista is pleased to note
that operations and performance have been strong while both
condensate and natural gas prices have increased significantly.
This results in a material increase to projected adjusted funds
flows and tremendous progress in reducing our net debt.
NuVista’s recent well performance has exceeded
expectations, and in addition the on-stream dates for new wells
have been ahead of schedule. As a result, first quarter production
guidance is increased to 64,000 - 65,000 Boe/d as compared to the
original guidance range of 60,000 - 62,000 Boe/d. Both of these
ranges include condensate at approximately 32%, NGLs at 8%, and
natural gas at 60%. Full year 2022 production guidance is unchanged
at 65,000 – 68,000 Boe/d (condensate 30%, NGLs 8%, natural gas
62%), with a reminder that NuVista has some planned facility
maintenance downtime in the second quarter. Capital expenditure
guidance for 2022 is unchanged with a range of $290-310
million.
We intend to continue our track record of
carefully directing additional available adjusted funds flow
towards a prudent balance of debt reduction and production growth
until our existing facilities are filled to maximum efficiency.
Capital expenditures will continue to be weighted towards
Pipestone, as our highest return area, with expected well payouts
well below a year. As previously communicated, 100% of free
adjusted funds flow will continue to be directed towards the
balance sheet until net debt reaches the interim milestone of $400
million. This is expected to be achieved during the second quarter
of 2022. Free adjusted funds flow below the milestone is
anticipated to be allocated between further debt reduction, the
return of capital to shareholders through the buyback of shares,
and possibly towards a moderate capital expenditure increase to
optimize the operational continuity of our three-rig drilling
program even further, if strip commodity prices remain strong. The
specific nature of these free adjusted funds flow splits will be
determined and communicated during the second quarter of
2022. Our board has approved a long term sustainable net debt
target of less than 1.0 times adjusted funds flow in the stress
test price environment of US$ 45/Bbl WTI and US$ 2.00/MMBtu NYMEX
natural gas. In the context of our 2022 plan, this represents a
target net debt level of $200 - $250 million.
NuVista has an exceptional business plan that
maximizes free adjusted funds flow and the return of capital to
shareholders when our existing facilities are filled to capacity
and maximum efficiency at production levels of approximately 85,000
– 90,000 Boe/d. We are confident that the actions described above
accelerate the Company towards that goal by as early as 2023, while
still providing free adjusted funds flow and net debt reduction
concurrent with growing production through 2022-2023. With
facilities optimized, returns are enhanced further with corporate
netbacks which are expected to grow by approximately $2-$3/Boe due
to the efficiencies of scale which will reduce our unit operating,
transportation, and interest expenses by this amount.
NuVista has top quality assets and a management
team focused on relentless improvement. We have the necessary
foundation and liquidity to continue adding significant value for
our shareholders. We have set the table for returns-focused
profitable growth to between 85,000 – 90,000 Boe/d with only
half-cycle spending, since the required facility infrastructure is
now in place. We will continue to adjust to this environment in
order to maximize the value of our asset base and ensure the
long-term sustainability of our business. We would like to thank
our staff, contractors, and suppliers for their continued
dedication and delivery, and we thank our board of directors and
our shareholders for their continued guidance and support. Please
note that our corporate presentation is being updated and will be
available at www.nuvistaenergy.com on March 9, 2022. NuVista’s
financial statements, notes to the financial statements and
management’s discussion and analysis for the year ended December
31, 2021, will be filed on SEDAR (www.sedar.com) under NuVista
Energy Ltd. on March 9, 2022 and can also be accessed on NuVista’s
website.
Financial and
Operating Highlights |
|
|
|
|
|
Three months ended December 31 |
|
Year ended December 31 |
|
($ thousands, except otherwise stated) |
2021 |
|
2020 |
|
% Change |
|
2021 |
|
2020 |
|
% Change |
|
FINANCIAL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Petroleum and natural gas
revenues |
323,355 |
|
124,378 |
|
160 |
|
885,290 |
|
424,637 |
|
108 |
|
Cash provided by operating
activities |
110,063 |
|
44,719 |
|
146 |
|
338,578 |
|
147,200 |
|
130 |
|
Adjusted funds flow(1)
(4) |
151,665 |
|
49,399 |
|
207 |
|
320,974 |
|
156,866 |
|
105 |
|
Per share, basic |
0.67 |
|
0.22 |
|
205 |
|
1.42 |
|
0.70 |
|
103 |
|
Per share, diluted |
0.64 |
|
0.22 |
|
191 |
|
1.38 |
|
0.70 |
|
97 |
|
Net earnings (loss) |
113,159 |
|
715,435 |
|
(84 |
) |
264,672 |
|
(197,879 |
) |
234 |
|
Per share, basic |
0.50 |
|
3.17 |
|
(84 |
) |
1.17 |
|
(0.88 |
) |
233 |
|
Per share, diluted |
0.48 |
|
3.17 |
|
(85 |
) |
1.14 |
|
(0.88 |
) |
230 |
|
Capital expenditures(2) |
86,402 |
|
23,864 |
|
262 |
|
288,846 |
|
180,442 |
|
60 |
|
Net proceeds on property
dispositions |
(1,034 |
) |
— |
|
— |
|
92,544 |
|
— |
|
— |
|
Net debt(1) (4) |
|
|
|
480,275 |
|
598,835 |
|
(20 |
) |
OPERATING |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Daily Production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Natural gas (MMcf/d) |
202.7 |
|
183.3 |
|
11 |
|
183.5 |
|
185.7 |
|
(1 |
) |
Condensate & oil
(Bbls/d) |
21,072 |
|
12,928 |
|
63 |
|
16,465 |
|
14,067 |
|
17 |
|
NGLs (Bbls/d) |
6,028 |
|
5,863 |
|
3 |
|
5,298 |
|
5,420 |
|
(2 |
) |
Total (Boe/d) |
60,888 |
|
49,348 |
|
23 |
|
52,345 |
|
50,443 |
|
4 |
|
Condensate, oil & NGLs
weighting |
45% |
|
38% |
|
|
42% |
|
39% |
|
|
Condensate & oil
weighting |
35% |
|
26% |
|
|
31% |
|
28% |
|
|
Average realized selling
prices(6) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Natural gas ($/Mcf) |
6.09 |
|
3.14 |
|
94 |
|
4.63 |
|
2.43 |
|
91 |
|
Condensate & oil
($/Bbl) |
96.15 |
|
52.59 |
|
83 |
|
84.35 |
|
45.50 |
|
85 |
|
NGLs ($/Bbl)(5) |
42.38 |
|
16.44 |
|
158 |
|
35.38 |
|
12.68 |
|
179 |
|
Netbacks ($/Boe) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Petroleum and natural gas
revenues |
57.73 |
|
27.40 |
|
111 |
|
46.34 |
|
23.00 |
|
101 |
|
Realized gain (loss) on
financial derivatives |
(6.69 |
) |
2.77 |
|
(342 |
) |
(6.05 |
) |
3.83 |
|
(258 |
) |
Royalties |
(4.89 |
) |
(0.83 |
) |
489 |
|
(3.41 |
) |
(0.92 |
) |
271 |
|
Transportation expenses |
(5.20 |
) |
(4.97 |
) |
5 |
|
(5.27 |
) |
(4.46 |
) |
18 |
|
Operating expenses |
(10.53 |
) |
(9.68 |
) |
9 |
|
(10.65 |
) |
(9.83 |
) |
8 |
|
Operating netback(3) |
30.42 |
|
14.69 |
|
107 |
|
20.96 |
|
11.62 |
|
80 |
|
Corporate netback(3) |
27.08 |
|
10.88 |
|
149 |
|
16.81 |
|
8.49 |
|
98 |
|
SHARE TRADING STATISTICS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
High ($/share) |
7.71 |
|
1.08 |
|
614 |
|
7.71 |
|
3.36 |
|
129 |
|
Low ($/share) |
5.06 |
|
0.64 |
|
691 |
|
0.89 |
|
0.24 |
|
271 |
|
Close ($/share) |
6.96 |
|
0.94 |
|
640 |
|
6.96 |
|
0.94 |
|
640 |
|
Average daily volume
('000s) |
827 |
|
1,479 |
|
(44 |
) |
1,133 |
|
2,030 |
|
(44 |
) |
Common
shares outstanding ('000s) |
|
|
|
227,578 |
|
225,837 |
|
1 |
|
(1) Refer to Note 16 “Capital management”
in NuVista's financial statements and to the sections entitled
“Adjusted funds flow” and “Liquidity and capital resources”
contained in this MD&A. (2) Non-GAAP financial measure
that does not have any standardized meaning under IFRS and
therefore may not be comparable to similar measures presented by
other companies where similar terminology is used. Reference should
be made to the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial
Measures”. (3) Non-GAAP ratio that does not have any
standardized meaning under IFRS and therefore may not be comparable
to similar measures presented by other companies where similar
terminology is used. Reference should be made to the section
entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measures”.
(4) Capital management measure. Reference should
be made to the section entitled “Non-GAAP and Other Financial
Measures”. (5) Natural gas liquids (“NGLs”)
include butane, propane, ethane and sulphur revenue.
(6) Product prices exclude realized gains/losses
on financial derivatives.
Detailed Summary of Corporate Reserves
Data
The following table provides summary reserve
information based upon the GLJ Report using the published 3
Consultants’ Average January 1, 2022 price forecast:
|
Natural Gas(2) |
Natural GasLiquids |
Oil(3) |
Total |
Reserves category(1) |
Company Gross |
Company Gross |
Company Gross |
Company Gross |
Interest |
Interest |
Interest |
Interest |
(MMcf) |
(MBbls) |
(MBbls) |
(MBoe) |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
Developed producing |
464,819 |
44,136 |
- |
121,605 |
Developed non-producing |
43,883 |
4,459 |
- |
11,773 |
Undeveloped |
750,605 |
66,446 |
- |
191,547 |
Total
proved |
1,259,308 |
115,041 |
- |
324,925 |
Probable |
983,600 |
78,683 |
- |
242,616 |
Total
proved plus probable |
2,242,907 |
193,723 |
- |
567,541 |
NOTES:(1) Numbers may not add due to
rounding.(2) Includes conventional natural gas and shale
gas.(3) Includes light and medium crude oil.
The following table is a summary reconciliation
of the 2021 year end working interest reserves with the working
interest reserves reported in the 2020 year end reserves
report:
Company Gross Interest |
Natural Gas(1)(3)(MMcf) |
|
Liquids(1)(MBbls) |
|
Oil(1)(4)(MBbls) |
|
Total Oil Equivalent(1)(MBoe) |
|
Total proved |
|
|
|
|
Balance, December 31,
2020 |
1,272,751 |
|
115,684 |
|
5,228 |
|
333,038 |
|
Exploration and
development(2) |
93,646 |
|
9,811 |
|
- |
|
25,419 |
|
Technical revisions |
(18,317 |
) |
(108 |
) |
- |
|
(3,161 |
) |
Acquisitions |
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
Dispositions(5) |
(26,718 |
) |
(2,820 |
) |
(5,194 |
) |
(12,467 |
) |
Economic Factors |
4,923 |
|
382 |
|
- |
|
1,203 |
|
Production |
(66,977 |
) |
(7,909 |
) |
(34 |
) |
(19,106 |
) |
Balance, December 31, 2021 |
1,259,308 |
|
115,041 |
|
- |
|
324,925 |
|
Total proved plus probableTotal proved plus probable |
|
|
|
|
Balance, December 31,
2020 |
2,284,051 |
|
197,819 |
|
11,339 |
|
589,833 |
|
Exploration and
development(2) |
116,399 |
|
11,786 |
|
- |
|
31,186 |
|
Technical revisions |
(49,757 |
) |
(3,078 |
) |
- |
|
(11,371 |
) |
Acquisitions |
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
Dispositions(5) |
(49,770 |
) |
(5,565 |
) |
(11,305 |
) |
(25,166 |
) |
Economic Factors |
8,962 |
|
671 |
|
- |
|
2,165 |
|
Production |
(66,977 |
) |
(7,909 |
) |
(34 |
) |
(19,106 |
) |
Balance, December 31, 2021 |
2,242,908 |
|
193,723 |
|
- |
|
567,541 |
|
NOTES:
(1) Numbers may not add due to
rounding.(2) Reserve additions for drilling extensions,
infill drilling and improved recovery.(3) Includes
conventional natural gas and shale gas.(4) Includes
light, medium crude oil.(5) During the first quarter of 2021,
we completed the divestiture of our non-core Charlie Lake and
Cretaceous unit assets in the Wembley area, as well as selected
water infrastructure assets in the Wembley/Pipestone area, for
total net proceeds of $92.5 million. The sale included production
of approximately 1,100 Boe/d and a reduction in our asset
retirement obligations of $17.6 million.
The following table summarizes the future
development capital included in the GLJ Report:
($ thousands, undiscounted) |
Proved |
Proved plusprobable |
|
|
|
2022 |
281,018 |
299,318 |
2023 |
352,608 |
352,608 |
2024 |
210,351 |
210,351 |
2025 |
249,029 |
249,029 |
2026 |
189,488 |
203,769 |
Remaining |
- |
896,552 |
Total (Undiscounted) |
1,282,495 |
2,211,627 |
NOTE:
(1) Numbers may not add due to
rounding.The following table outlines NuVista's corporate finding,
development and acquisition (“FD&A”) costs in more detail:
|
3 Year-Average(1) |
|
2021(1) |
|
2020(1) |
|
|
Proved plus |
|
|
Proved plus |
|
|
Proved plus |
|
Proved |
probable |
|
Proved |
probable |
|
Proved |
probable |
Finding and development costs
($/Boe) |
$4.87 |
$3.94 |
|
$8.36 |
$8.74 |
|
($680.3) |
($23.06) |
Finding, development and acquisition costs ($/Boe) |
$2.22 |
$1.70 |
|
($2.40) |
$34.98 |
|
$173.67 |
($28.08) |
NOTE:
(1) F&D costs and FD&A are
used as a measure of capital efficiency. The calculation for
F&D costs includes all exploration and development capital for
that period as outlined in the Company’s year-end financial
statements plus the change in future development capital for that
period. This total capital including the change in the future
development capital is then divided by the change in reserves for
that period including revisions for that same period. The aggregate
of the exploration and development costs incurred in the most
recent financial year and the change during the year in estimated
future development costs generally will not reflect total finding
and development costs related to reserve additions for the year.
FD&A costs are calculated in the same manner except in addition
to exploration and development capital and the change in future
development capital, acquisition capital is also included in the
calculation.Summary of Corporate Net Present Value
Data
The estimated net present values of future net
revenue before income taxes associated with NuVista’s reserves
effective December 31, 2021 and based on published GLJ future price
forecast as at January 1, 2022 as set forth below are summarized in
the following table:
The estimated future net revenue contained in
the following table does not necessarily represent the fair market
value of the reserves. There is no assurance that the forecast
price and cost assumptions contained in the GLJ Report will be
attained and variations could be material. The recovery and reserve
estimates described herein are estimates only. Actual reserves may
be greater or less than those calculated.
|
Before Income Taxes |
|
Discount Factor (%/year) |
Reserves category(1)($ thousands) |
0% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
20% |
Proved |
|
|
|
|
|
Developed producing |
2,254,686 |
1,801,273 |
1,492,256 |
1,286,702 |
1,143,080 |
Developed non-producing |
260,110 |
201,077 |
166,303 |
143,790 |
128,043 |
Undeveloped |
3,236,061 |
2,096,926 |
1,481,707 |
1,112,397 |
871,240 |
Total proved |
5,750,857 |
4,099,276 |
3,140,266 |
2,542,889 |
2,142,363 |
Probable |
4,553,171 |
2,150,210 |
1,216,339 |
783,022 |
551,939 |
Total proved plus probable |
10,304,028 |
6,249,487 |
4,356,606 |
3,325,911 |
2,694,302 |
(1) Numbers may not add due to
rounding.
The following table is a summary of pricing and inflation rate
assumptions based on published 3 Consultants’ Average forecast
prices and costs as at January 1, 2022:
Year |
AECO Gas ($Cdn/ MMBtu) |
NYMEX Gas ($US/ MMBtu) |
Midwest Gas at Chicago ($US/ MMBtu) |
Edmonton C5+ ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Edmonton Propane ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Edmonton Butane ($Cdn/Bbl) |
WTI Cushing Oklahoma ($US/Bbl) |
Edmonton Par Price 40 API ($Cdn/Bbl) |
Exchange Rate(2)($US/$Cdn) |
Forecast |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2022 |
3.56 |
3.85 |
3.71 |
91.85 |
43.39 |
57.49 |
72.83 |
86.82 |
0.797 |
2023 |
3.20 |
3.44 |
3.30 |
85.53 |
35.92 |
50.17 |
68.78 |
80.73 |
0.797 |
2024 |
3.05 |
3.17 |
3.03 |
82.98 |
34.62 |
48.53 |
66.76 |
78.01 |
0.797 |
2025 |
3.10 |
3.24 |
3.09 |
84.63 |
35.31 |
49.50 |
68.09 |
79.57 |
0.797 |
2026 |
3.17 |
3.30 |
3.16 |
86.33 |
36.02 |
50.49 |
69.45 |
81.16 |
0.797 |
2027 |
3.23 |
3.37 |
3.22 |
88.05 |
36.74 |
51.50 |
70.84 |
82.78 |
0.797 |
2028 |
3.30 |
3.44 |
3.29 |
89.82 |
37.47 |
52.53 |
72.26 |
84.44 |
0.797 |
2029 |
3.36 |
3.51 |
3.36 |
91.61 |
38.22 |
53.58 |
73.70 |
86.13 |
0.797 |
2030 |
3.43 |
3.57 |
3.43 |
93.44 |
38.99 |
54.65 |
75.18 |
87.85 |
0.797 |
2031 |
3.50 |
3.65 |
3.50 |
95.32 |
39.77 |
55.74 |
76.68 |
89.60 |
0.797 |
2031+ |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
+2.0%/yr |
0.797 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
NOTES:
(1) Costs are inflated at 2% per
annum.(2) Exchange rate used to generate the benchmark
reference prices in this table.(3) NuVista’s future realized gas
prices are forecasted based on a combination of various benchmark
prices in addition to the AECO benchmark in order to reflect the
favorable price diversification to other markets which NuVista has
undertaken. Pricing at these markets has been accounted for in the
GLJ Report. Additional information on NuVista’s gas marketing
diversification will be available in our corporate
presentation.
Advisories Regarding Oil And Gas
Information
BOEs may be misleading, particularly if
used in isolation. A BOE conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based
on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at
the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the
wellhead. As the value ratio between natural gas and crude oil
based on the current prices of natural gas and crude oil is
significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1,
utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an
indication of value.
This press release contains a number of oil and
gas metrics prepared by management, including F&D costs,
FD&A costs, recycle ratio and DC&E costs, which do not have
standardized meanings or standard methods of calculation and
therefore such measures may not be comparable to similar measures
used by other companies. Such metrics have been included herein to
provide readers with additional measures to evaluate NuVista's
performance on a comparable basis with prior periods; however, such
measures are not reliable indicators of the future performance of
NuVista and future performance may not compare to the performance
in previous periods. Details of how F&D costs, FD&A costs
and recycle ratios are calculated are set forth under the heading
"Non-GAAP and Other Financial Measure – Non-GAAP Ratios". DCET
includes all capital spent to drill, complete and equip a well.
NuVista has presented certain well economics
based on type curves for the Pipestone development block. The type
curves are based on initial drilling results but due to the early
stage of development, primarily on drilling results from analogous
Montney development located in close proximity to such area. Such
type curves and well economics are useful in understanding
management's assumptions of well performance in making investment
decisions in relation to development drilling in the Montney area
and for determining the success of the performance of development
wells; however, such type curves and well economics are not
necessarily determinative of the production rates and performance
of existing and future wells and such type curves do not reflect
the type curves used by our independent qualified reserves
evaluator in estimating our reserves volumes. The type curves used
in the GLJ Report for the Pipestone development blocks had an
estimate of estimated ultimate recovery that generally compared
well to the type curves used to generate the economics presented
herein.
NuVista has presented the term "payout" based on
the type curves for the Pipestone development block. Payout means
the anticipated years of production from a well required to fully
pay for the all capital spent to drill, complete, equip and tie-in
a well of such well.
Economics presented are based on pricing
assumptions of: US$65/Bbl WTI; US$3.00/MMBtu NYMEX; Fx (CAD:USD):
1.27:1; and a $US0.85/MMBtu AECO to NYMEX basis.
This press release discloses NuVista's drilling
locations in two categories: (i) undeveloped proved plus probable
(2P) drilling locations; and (ii) undeveloped contingent resources
(2C) drilling locations. Undeveloped 2P drilling locations are
derived from a report prepared by GLJ, NuVista's independent
qualified reserves evaluator, evaluating NuVista's reserves as of
December 31, 2021 (the "GLJ Report"), and account for undeveloped
drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable
reserves, as applicable. Undeveloped 2C drilling locations are
derived from a report prepared by GLJ evaluating NuVista's
contingent resources as of December 31, 2021 ("GLJ Contingent
Resource Report"), and account for undeveloped drilling locations
that have associated contingent resources based on a best estimate
of such contingent resources. There is no certainty that we will
drill all drilling locations and if drilled there is no certainty
that such locations will result in additional oil and gas
production. The drilling locations on which we actually drill wells
will ultimately depend upon the availability of capital, regulatory
approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices,
costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information
that is obtained and other factors. Contingent resources are those
quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be
potentially recoverable from known accumulations using established
technology or technology under development, but which are not
currently considered to be commercially recoverable due to one or
more contingencies. In the case of the contingent resources
estimated in the GLJ Contingent Resource Report, contingencies
include: (i) further delineation of interest lands; (ii) corporate
commitment, and; (iii) final development plan. To further delineate
interest lands additional wells must be drilled and tested to
demonstrate commercial rates on the resource lands. Reserves are
only assigned in close proximity to demonstrated productivity. As
continued delineation drilling occurs, a portion of the contingent
resources are expected to be reclassified as reserves. Confirmation
of corporate intent to proceed with remaining capital expenditures
within a reasonable timeframe is a requirement for the assessment
of reserves. Finalization of a development plan includes timing,
infrastructure spending and the commitment of capital.
Any references in this press release to initial
production rates are useful in confirming the presence of
hydrocarbons, however, such rates are not determinative of the
rates at which such wells will continue production and decline
thereafter. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place
reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production for
NuVista.
Basis of presentation
Unless otherwise noted, the financial data
presented in this press release has been prepared in accordance
with Canadian generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”)
also known as International Financial Reporting Standards (“IFRS”).
The reporting and measurement currency is the Canadian dollar.
National Instrument 51-101 - "Standards of Disclosure for Oil and
Gas Activities" includes condensate within the product type of
natural gas liquids. NuVista has disclosed condensate values
separate from natural gas liquids herein as NuVista believes it
provides a more accurate description of NuVista's operations and
results therefrom.
Production split for Boe/d amounts referenced in
the press release are as follows:
Reference |
Total Boe/d |
% Natural Gas |
% Condensate |
% NGLs |
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 2021 production - actual |
60,888 |
55% |
35% |
10% |
Q4 2021 production guidance |
56,000 - 58,000 |
62% |
30% |
8% |
2021 annual production - actual |
52,345 |
58% |
31% |
11% |
2021 annual production guidance |
51,000 - 52,000 |
60% |
30% |
10% |
Q1 2022 revised production guidance |
64,000 - 65,000 |
60% |
32% |
8% |
Q1 2022 original production guidance |
60,000 - 62,000 |
60% |
32% |
8% |
2022 annual production guidance |
65,000 - 68,000 |
62% |
30% |
8% |
2024+ production range |
85,000 - 90,000 |
62% |
30% |
8% |
Reserves advisories
The reserves estimates prepared herein have been
evaluated by an independent qualified reserves evaluator in
accordance with National Instrument 51-101 – Standards of
Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities and the Canadian Oil and Gas
Evaluation Handbook ("COGE Handbook") and are effective as of
December 31, 2020. All reserves information has been presented on a
gross basis, which is the Company's working interest share before
deduction of royalties and without including any royalty interests
of the Company. The reserves have been categorized accordance with
the reserves definitions as set out in the COGE Handbook. The
recovery and reserve estimates contained herein are estimates only
and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be
recovered.
Advisory regarding forward-looking
information and statements
This press release contains forward-looking
statements and forward-looking information (collectively,
“forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable
securities laws. The use of any of the words “will”, “expects”,
“believe”, “plans”, “potential” and similar expressions are
intended to identify forward-looking statements. More particularly
and without limitation, this press release contains forward looking
statements, including management's assessment of: NuVista’s future
focus, strategy, plans, opportunities and operations; projected
adjusted funds flows at current strip prices; our plans to continue
to balance debt repayment, increasing adjusted funds flow through
prudent production and growth; guidance with respect to 2022
capital expenditure amounts, spending timing and allocation;
guidance with respect to average daily production for 2022;
expectations with respect to future net debt to adjusted funds flow
ratio; expectations with respect to achieving our net debt
milestone of less than $400MM; expectations with respect to
achieving our sustainable net debt target of less than 1.0 times
adjusted funds flow in the stress test price environment of $US
45/Bbl WTI and $US 2.00/MMBtu NYMEX natural gas; plans to direct
additional available adjusted funds flow towards a prudent balance
of debt reduction and production growth until our existing
facilities are filled to maximum efficiency; recovery and reserve
estimates; expectations that Pipestone will continue to be our
highest return area; expected well payouts at Pipestone; planned
facility outages and their effects; ESG plans, targets and expected
results from our ESG initiatives; future commodity prices; plans to
maximize free adjusted funds flow and the return of capital to
shareholders; the future capacity of our facilities, that maximum
efficiency will be achieved at flattened production levels of
approximately 85,000 – 90,000 Boe/d and that this will be achieved
as early as 2023; that we will generate free adjusted funds flow
while reducing net debt; that once existing facilities are filled,
returns will be enhanced, corporate netbacks will grow by
approximately $2-$3/Boe and unit operating, transportation, and
interest costs will be reduced by this amount; NuVista’s future
realized gas prices; the effect of our financial, commodity, and
natural gas risk management strategy and market diversification;
2022 drilling and completion plans, timing and expected results;
anticipated drilling and completions costs; estimated DCE costs per
well on the Elmworth pad and associated timing of completion
thereof; the successful completion of the drilling operations in
Gold Creek and the anticipated timing and benefits therefrom; and
the ability to continue adding significant value and improvement.
Statements relating to "reserves" are also deemed to be
forward-looking statements, as they involve the implied assessment,
based on certain estimates and assumptions, that the reserves
described exist in the quantities predicted or estimated and that
the reserves can be profitably produced in the future.
By their nature, forward-looking statements are
based upon certain assumptions and are subject to numerous risks
and uncertainties, some of which are beyond NuVista’s control,
including the impact of general economic conditions, industry
conditions, current and future commodity prices and inflation
rates, the projectory of the Covid-19 pandemic and its effects,
including with respect to commodity prices, currency and interest
rates, anticipated production rates, borrowing, operating and other
costs and adjusted funds flow, the timing, allocation and amount of
capital expenditures and the results therefrom, anticipated
reserves and the imprecision of reserve estimates, the performance
of existing wells, the success obtained in drilling new wells, the
sufficiency of budgeted capital expenditures in carrying out
planned activities, access to infrastructure and markets,
competition from other industry participants, availability of
qualified personnel or services and drilling and related equipment,
stock market volatility, effects of regulation by governmental
agencies including changes in environmental regulations, tax laws
and royalties, the ability to access sufficient capital from
internal sources and bank and equity markets, that we will complete
the announced dispositions on the terms and timing contemplated,
that we will be able to execute our 2022 drilling plans as expected
and including, without limitation, those risks considered under
“Risk Factors” in our Annual Information Form. Readers are
cautioned that the assumptions used in the preparation of such
information, although considered reasonable at the time of
preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance
should not be placed on forward-looking statements. NuVista’s
actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially
from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking
statements, or if any of them do so, what benefits NuVista will
derive therefrom. NuVista has included the forward-looking
statements in this press release in order to provide readers with a
more complete perspective on NuVista’s future operations and such
information may not be appropriate for other purposes. NuVista
disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any
forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information,
future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
This press release also contains future-oriented
financial information and financial outlook information
(collectively, "FOFI") about NuVista's prospective results of
operations including, without limitation, its ability to repay
debt, expectations with respect to future net debt to adjusted
funds flow ratios, projected adjusted funds flows at current strip
prices, capital expenditures and corporate netbacks, which are
subject to the same assumptions, risk factors, limitations, and
qualifications as set forth above. Readers are cautioned that the
assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although
considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be
imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on
FOFI. NuVista's actual results, performance or achievement could
differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these
FOFI, or if any of them do so, what benefits NuVista will derive
therefrom. NuVista has included the FOFI in order to provide
readers with a more complete perspective on NuVista's future
operations and such information may not be appropriate for other
purposes.
These forward-looking statements and FOFI are
made as of the date of this press release and NuVista disclaims any
intent or obligation to update any forward-looking statements and
FOFI, whether as a result of new information, future events or
results or otherwise, other than as required by applicable
securities law.
Non-GAAP and other financial
measures
This press release uses various specified
financial measures (as such terms are defined in National
Instrument 52-112 – Non-GAAP Disclosure and Other Financial
Measures Disclosure ("NI 51-112")) including
"non-GAAP financial measures", "non-GAAP ratios”, “capital
management measures" and “supplementary financial measures” (as
such terms are defined in NI 51-112), which are described in
further detail below. Management believes that the presentation of
these non-GAAP measures provide useful information to investors and
shareholders as the measures provide increased transparency and the
ability to better analyze performance against prior periods on a
comparable basis.
Non-GAAP financial measures
NI 52-112 defines a non-GAAP financial measure
as a financial measure that: (i) depicts the historical or expected
future financial performance, financial position or cash flow of an
entity; (ii) with respect to its composition, excludes an amount
that is included in, or includes an amount that is excluded from,
the composition of the most directly comparable financial measure
disclosed in the primary financial statements of the entity; (iii)
is not disclosed in the financial statements of the entity; and
(iv) is not a ratio, fraction, percentage or similar
representation.
These non-GAAP financial measures are not
standardized financial measures under IFRS and might not be
comparable to similar measures presented by other companies where
similar terminology is used. Investors are cautioned that these
measures should not be construed as alternatives to or more
meaningful than the most directly comparable IFRS measures as
indicators of NuVista's performance. Set forth below are
descriptions of the non-GAAP financial measures used in this press
release.
(1) Free adjusted
funds flow
Free adjusted funds flow is adjusted funds flow
less capital and asset retirement expenditures. Refer to
disclosures under the headings "Adjusted funds flow" and "Capital
expenditures" for a description of each component of free adjusted
funds flow, which components are a capital management measure and a
non-GAAP financial measure, respectively. Management uses free
adjusted funds flow as a measure of the efficiency and liquidity of
its business, measuring its funds available for capital investment
to manage debt levels, pay dividends, and return capital to
shareholders. By removing the impact of current period capital and
asset retirement expenditures, management believes this measure
provides an indication of the funds the Company has available for
future capital allocation decisions.
The following tables set out our free adjusted
funds flows compared to the most directly comparable GAAP measure
of cash provided by operating activities less cash used in
investing activities for the period:
|
Three months ended December 31 |
|
Year ended December 31 |
|
($ thousands) |
2021 |
|
2020 |
|
2021 |
|
2020 |
|
Cash provided by operating activities |
110,063 |
|
44,719 |
|
338,578 |
|
147,200 |
|
Cash
used in investing activities |
(42,620 |
) |
(13,825 |
) |
(176,258 |
) |
(201,425 |
) |
Excess (deficiency) of cash provided by operating activities over
cash used in investing activities |
67,443 |
|
30,894 |
|
162,320 |
|
(54,225 |
) |
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted funds flow |
151,665 |
|
49,399 |
|
320,974 |
|
156,866 |
|
Capital expenditures |
(86,402 |
) |
(23,864 |
) |
(288,846 |
) |
(180,442 |
) |
Asset
retirement expenditures |
(809 |
) |
(750 |
) |
(5,478 |
) |
(11,106 |
) |
Free adjusted funds flow |
64,454 |
|
24,785 |
|
26,650 |
|
(34,682 |
) |
(2) Capital
expenditures
Capital expenditures are equal to cash used in
investing activities, excluding changes in non-cash working
capital, other receivable and property dispositions. Any
expenditures on the other receivable are being refunded to NuVista
and are therefore included under current assets. NuVista considers
capital expenditures to be a useful measure of cash flow used for
capital reinvestment.
The following table provides a reconciliation
between the non-GAAP measure of capital expenditures to the most
directly comparable GAAP measure of cash used in investing
activities for the period:
|
Three months ended December 31 |
|
Year ended December 31 |
|
($ thousands) |
2021 |
|
2020 |
|
2021 |
|
2020 |
|
Cash used in investing activities |
(42,620 |
) |
(13,825 |
) |
(176,258 |
) |
(201,425 |
) |
Changes in non-cash working
capital |
(44,254 |
) |
(5,572 |
) |
(15,249 |
) |
25,813 |
|
Other receivable |
(562 |
) |
(4,467 |
) |
(4,795 |
) |
(4,830 |
) |
Property acquisitions/(dispositions) |
1,034 |
|
— |
|
(92,544 |
) |
— |
|
Capital expenditures |
(86,402 |
) |
(23,864 |
) |
(288,846 |
) |
(180,442 |
) |
Non-GAAP ratios
NI 52-112 defines a non-GAAP ratio as a
financial measure that: (i) is in the form of a ratio, fraction,
percentage or similar representation; (ii) has a non-GAAP financial
measure as one or more of its components; and (iii) is not
disclosed in the financial statements of the entity. Set forth
below is a description of the non-GAAP ratios used in this press
release.
These non-GAAP ratios are not standardized
financial measures under IFRS and might not be comparable to
similar measures presented by other companies where similar
terminology is used. Investors are cautioned that these ratios
should not be construed as alternatives to or more meaningful than
the most directly comparable IFRS measures as indicators of
NuVista's performance.
Non-GAAP ratios presented on a "per Boe" basis
may also be considered to be supplementary financial measures (as
such term is defined in NI 51-112).
(1) Operating
netback and corporate netback ("netbacks"), per Boe
NuVista calculated netbacks per Boe by dividing
the netbacks by total production volumes sold in the period. Each
of operating netback and corporate netback are non-GAAP financial
measures. Operating netback is calculated as petroleum and natural
gas revenues including realized financial derivative gains/losses,
less royalties, transportation and operating expenses. Corporate
netback is operating netback less general and administrative,
deferred share units, interest and lease finance expense.
Management feels both operating and corporate
netbacks are key industry benchmarks and measures of operating
performance for NuVista that assists management and investors in
assessing NuVista's profitability, and are commonly used by other
petroleum and natural gas producers. The measurement on a Boe basis
assists management and investors with evaluating NuVista's
operating performance on a comparable basis.
(2) F&D
costs
NuVista calculated F&D costs as the sum of
development costs plus the change in future development costs
("FDC") for the period when appropriate, divided by the change in
reserves within the applicable reserves category, excluding those
reserves acquired or disposed.
NuVista calculated TP+PA 3-year average F&D
costs as the arithmetical average of the F&D costs over the
last three completed financial years.
(3) FD&A
costs
NuVista calculated FD&A costs are calculated
as the sum of development costs plus net acquisition costs plus the
change in FDC for the period when appropriate, divided by the
change in reserves within the applicable reserves category,
inclusive of changes due to acquisitions and dispositions.
(4) Recycle
Ratio
NuVista calculates recycle ratio as the sum of
changes in reserves (exploration and development, technical
revisions, acquisitions, dispositions and economic factors) divided
by annual production for the applicable period and reserve
category.
Capital management measures
NI 52-112 defines a capital management measure
as a financial measure that: (i) is intended to enable an
individual to evaluate an entity’s objectives, policies and
processes for managing the entity’s capital; (ii) is not a
component of a line item disclosed in the primary financial
statements of the entity; (iii) is disclosed in the notes to the
financial statements of the entity; and (iv) is not disclosed in
the primary financial statements of the entity.
Please refer to Note 16 "Capital Management" in
NuVista's financial statements for additional disclosure net debt
and adjusted funds flow, each of which are capital management
measures used by the Company in this press release.
Supplementary financial
measures
This press release may contain certain
supplementary financial measures. NI 52-112 defines a supplementary
financial measure as a financial measure that: (i) is intended to
be disclosed on a periodic basis to depict the historical or
expected future financial performance, financial position or cash
flow of an entity; (ii) is not disclosed in the financial
statements of the entity; (iii) is not a non-GAAP financial
measure; and (iv) is not a non-GAAP ratio.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT: |
|
|
|
|
|
Jonathan A. Wright |
|
Ross L. Andreachuk |
|
Mike J. Lawford |
President and CEO |
|
VP, Finance and CFO |
|
Chief Operating Officer |
(403) 538-8501 |
|
(403) 538-8539 |
|
(403) 538-1936 |
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