Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd.
(TSX:TVE) (“
Tamarack” or the
“
Company”) is pleased to announce its financial
and operating results for the three and twelve months ended
December 31, 2017 and the results of its independent oil and gas
reserves evaluation as of December 31, 2017, prepared by GLJ
Petroleum Consultants Ltd. (“GLJ”). Selected financial,
operational and reserves information is outlined below and should
be read with Tamarack’s audited consolidated financial statements
(“Financial Statements”) and management’s discussion and analysis
(“MD&A”) as of December 31, 2017, which will be filed on
SEDAR at www.sedar.com and posted on Tamarack’s website at
www.tamarackvalley.ca.
2017 Financial and Operating
Highlights
- Achieved record corporate production in Q4/17 of 22,807 boe/d,
up 11% over Q3/17 of 20,541 boe/d and up 99% over Q4/16 of 11,453
boe/d. Annual production averaged 20,136 boe/d, nearly double
Tamarack’s 2016 average production of 10,344 boe/d.
- Oil and natural gas liquids (“NGLs”) weighting was 62% in Q4/17
compared to 55% in the same period of 2016, representing an
increase of 13%, which positively contributed to the Company’s
stronger netbacks year-over-year. Full year 2017 oil and NGLs
weighting increased to 60% compared to 54% for 2016.
- Total adjusted funds flow grew 66% to $57.6 million in Q4/17
($0.25/share basic and diluted) over Q3/17 ($0.15/share basic and
diluted) and increased 182% over Q4/16. Annual 2017 adjusted
funds flow of $158.4 million was 147% higher than in 2016.
- Operating netback in Q4/17 increased by 44% over Q3/17
primarily due to the 13% increase in oil and NGLs weighting and the
24% increase in the combined average realized prices for oil and
NGLs.
- Production and transportation expenses were reduced by 8% to
$10.40/boe in Q4/17 over Q3/17 and were 15% lower than Q4/16.
- Reduced net debt at December 31, 2017 by $21.7 million or 11%
quarter-over-quarter, resulting in net debt to annualized Q4/17
adjusted funds flow strengthening to 0.8 times, compared to 1.4
times at the end of Q3/17.
- Proved developed producing reserves (“PDP”) grew by 14% per
fully diluted share, and reserves on an absolute basis increased by
53% for PDP, 55% for total proved (“TP”) and 62% for total proved
plus probable (“TPP”) compared to 2016.
- Net asset value based on the net present values (discounted at
10%) of the TP and TPP reserves is $2.24 and $4.46 per fully
diluted share, respectively. The net present value of
reserves has been adjusted for net debt of $173.2 million.
- Achieved attractive capital efficiencies through the 2017
development program, generating a TPP finding and development
(“F&D”) cost recycle ratio of 1.6 times and a TPP finding,
development and acquisition (“FD&A”) cost recycle ratio of 1.4
times based on the Q4 2017 operating field netback (excluding
hedges) of $28.54/boe.
Financial & Operating
Results
|
Three months ended |
Years ended |
December 31, |
December 31, |
|
|
2017 |
|
|
2016 |
|
%change |
|
|
2017 |
|
|
2016 |
|
%change |
|
($ thousands, except per share) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Revenue |
|
90,160 |
|
|
39,793 |
|
127 |
|
|
283,672 |
|
|
115,517 |
|
146 |
|
Adjusted
funds flow1 |
|
57,583 |
|
|
20,453 |
|
182 |
|
|
158,383 |
|
|
64,164 |
|
147 |
|
Per share
– basic and diluted 1 |
$ |
0.25 |
|
$ |
0.15 |
|
67 |
|
$ |
0.70 |
|
$ |
0.52 |
|
35 |
|
Net
loss |
|
(12,525 |
) |
|
(8,425 |
) |
(49 |
) |
|
(13,924 |
) |
|
(27,823 |
) |
(50 |
) |
Per share
– basic and diluted |
$ |
(0.05 |
) |
$ |
(0.06 |
) |
17 |
|
$ |
(0.06 |
) |
$ |
(0.23 |
) |
(74 |
) |
Net debt
1 |
|
(173,180 |
) |
|
(52,316 |
) |
231 |
|
|
(173,180 |
) |
|
(52,316 |
) |
231 |
|
Capital Expenditures 2 |
|
35,516 |
|
|
14,863 |
|
139 |
|
|
192,302 |
|
|
56,819 |
|
238 |
|
Weighted average shares outstanding
(thousands) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Basic |
|
228,066 |
|
|
137,044 |
|
66 |
|
|
225,306 |
|
|
122,235 |
|
84 |
|
Diluted |
|
228,066 |
|
|
137,044 |
|
66 |
|
|
225,306 |
|
|
122,235 |
|
84 |
|
Share Trading |
|
|
|
|
|
|
High |
$ |
3.15 |
|
$ |
3.89 |
|
(19 |
) |
$ |
3.59 |
|
$ |
4.28 |
|
(16 |
) |
Low |
$ |
2.49 |
|
$ |
3.00 |
|
(17 |
) |
$ |
1.96 |
|
$ |
2.16 |
|
(9 |
) |
Trading volume (thousands) |
|
35,006 |
|
|
39,342 |
|
(11 |
) |
|
196,595 |
|
|
122,074 |
|
61 |
|
Average daily production |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Light oil
(bbls/d) |
|
12,189 |
|
|
4,858 |
|
151 |
|
|
9,929 |
|
|
4,215 |
|
136 |
|
Heavy oil
(bbls/d) |
|
500 |
|
|
316 |
|
58 |
|
|
511 |
|
|
363 |
|
41 |
|
NGLs
(bbls/d) |
|
1,459 |
|
|
1,075 |
|
36 |
|
|
1,547 |
|
|
1,035 |
|
49 |
|
Natural
gas (mcf/d) |
|
51,956 |
|
|
31,226 |
|
66 |
|
|
48,893 |
|
|
28,388 |
|
72 |
|
Total (boe/d) |
|
22,807 |
|
|
11,453 |
|
99 |
|
|
20,136 |
|
|
10,344 |
|
95 |
|
Average sale prices |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Light oil
($/bbl) |
|
65.08 |
|
|
58.71 |
|
11 |
|
|
59.42 |
|
|
50.53 |
|
18 |
|
Heavy oil
($/bbl) |
|
48.97 |
|
|
44.60 |
|
10 |
|
|
46.01 |
|
|
35.45 |
|
30 |
|
NGLs
($/bbl) |
|
44.03 |
|
|
28.99 |
|
52 |
|
|
32.38 |
|
|
20.74 |
|
56 |
|
Natural
gas ($/mcf) |
|
1.89 |
|
|
3.27 |
|
(42 |
) |
|
2.32 |
|
|
2.41 |
|
(4 |
) |
Total ($/boe) |
|
42.97 |
|
|
37.76 |
|
14 |
|
|
38.60 |
|
|
30.51 |
|
27 |
|
Operating netback ($/Boe) 1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average
realized sales |
|
42.97 |
|
|
37.76 |
|
14 |
|
|
38.60 |
|
|
30.51 |
|
27 |
|
Royalty
expenses |
|
(4.03 |
) |
|
(3.56 |
) |
13 |
|
|
(3.96 |
) |
|
(2.32 |
) |
71 |
|
Production expenses |
|
(10.40 |
) |
|
(12.17 |
) |
(15 |
) |
|
(11.19 |
) |
|
(11.64 |
) |
(4 |
) |
Operating field netback ($/Boe) 1 |
|
28.54 |
|
|
22.03 |
|
30 |
|
|
23.45 |
|
|
16.55 |
|
42 |
|
Realized commodity hedging gain (loss) |
|
1.53 |
|
|
(0.15 |
) |
1,120 |
|
|
0.77 |
|
|
3.25 |
|
(76 |
) |
Operating netback |
|
30.07 |
|
|
21.88 |
|
37 |
|
|
24.22 |
|
|
19.80 |
|
22 |
|
Adjusted funds flow netback ($/Boe) 1 |
|
27.44 |
|
|
19.41 |
|
41 |
|
|
21.55 |
|
|
16.95 |
|
27 |
|
Notes:(1) Adjusted funds
flow, net debt, operating netback, operating field netback and
adjusted funds flow netback do not have any standardized meaning
prescribed by IFRS and therefore may not be comparable with the
calculation of similar measures for other entities. See “Oil and
Gas Metrics” and “Non-IFRS Measures”.(2) Capital expenditures
include exploration and development expenditures, but exclude asset
acquisitions and dispositions.
2017 In Review
In January 2017, Tamarack closed the
transformative acquisition of strategic Viking assets from Spur
Resources, Ltd. (the “Viking Acquisition”), further demonstrating
the Company’s strategy of adding high-quality, oil-weighted assets
which on a half-cycle basis, can achieve a capital cost payout of
1.5 years or less while maintaining balance sheet
flexibility. Immediately upon closing, the Company integrated
the new Viking assets into its existing operations and through the
balance of the year, demonstrated unprecedented growth and
operational success. Tamarack increased annual production
volumes in 2017 by 95% to 20,136 boe/d (60% liquids), compared to
10,344 boe/d (54% liquids) in 2016 as a direct result of higher
production volumes from the Company’s successful 2017 drilling
program, strong capital efficiencies, and the impact of the Viking
Acquisition. In Q4/17, Tamarack achieved record production of
22,807 boe/d and exceeded the Company’s original target 2017 exit
rate of 21,000 boe/d, which was increased to 22,000 on August 10,
2017.
Recognizing the challenges facing natural gas
prices at AECO in 2017, Tamarack made the conscious decision
mid-2017 to shift capital to projects with a higher oil and liquids
weighting. As such, capital was allocated to the Cardium at
Wilson Creek and the Viking at Veteran, resulting in a higher
oil-weighting in Q4/17 relative to Q4/16 resulting in stronger
netbacks. Tamarack’s average per boe sales price increased 27%
year-over-year to $38.60/boe in 2017 from $30.51/boe in 2016.
This strategic shift had a positive impact on Tamarack’s oil
and liquids weighting which increased 13% from 55% in Q4/16 to 62%
in Q4/17. Although natural gas represented 40% of Tamarack’s
total production volumes in 2017, it generated less than 15% of the
Company’s total revenue. For the full year 2017, the
Company’s oil and liquids weighting averaged 60%, and further
increases are expected in 2018 with oil and liquids expected to
average 64 to 67% of total production. The shift in
production weighting, improved pricing and cost reductions
positively impacted Tamarack’s operating netbacks (excluding the
benefit of hedging), which increased 42% in 2017 to $23.45/boe from
$16.55/boe in 2016. The Company’s high-quality asset base,
increased focus on driving improved margins with oil and liquids
production, and adherence to cost control measures contributed to
annual adjusted funds flow of $158.4 million ($0.70 per diluted
share) compared to $64.2 million ($0.52 per diluted share) in 2016,
representing a 147% increase.
Tamarack’s ongoing commitment to improve
netbacks is not limited to cost reduction initiatives. By
November 1, 2017, the Company had also taken proactive steps to
mitigate gas price weakness and reduce its exposure to the
structurally challenged AECO pricing hub. Effective April 1,
2018, approximately 40% of Tamarack’s natural gas production will
receive pricing from various markets that have historically
outperformed AECO, including Malin (16%), Chicago (8%), Dawn (8%)
and Mich Con (8%). In addition, the Company will continue to
opportunistically layer in hedges to further protect against
downside risk in crude oil and natural gas pricing, as well as
foreign exchange movements.
Year-end 2017 net debt totaled $173.2 million,
which represents a net debt to fourth quarter 2017 annualized
adjusted funds flow ratio of 0.8 times, compared to 0.6 times at
December 31, 2016. Tamarack invested $192.3 million in its
2017 capital expenditures program, including $12 million on tuck-in
acquisitions in core areas and approximately $8.0 million of
capital accelerated from 2018 into the fourth quarter of 2017. The
capital acceleration was in response to attaining favorable rates
for drilling and completion services and was intended to avoid
challenges accessing service crews that were experienced in Q1/17.
In Q4/17, Tamarack drilled, completed and equipped three (2.3
net) Redwater oil wells and one (1.0 net) Cardium oil well and
brought on production ten (10.0 net) Viking oil wells, three (3.0
net) Cardium oil wells, two (2.0 net) heavy oil wells and one (1.0
net) Penny Barons oil well, which were all drilled prior to the
start of the fourth quarter. In addition, Tamarack drilled 15
(14.4 net) Viking oil wells in December, which were fracture
stimulated and brought on production in early 2018. Tamarack
remains focused on drilling wells which are expected to payout in
1.5 years or less, with a current inventory which could last the
Company in excess of eight years.
Tamarack has optimally positioned itself over
the course of the past two years to take advantage of the
recovering oil and liquids price environment experienced to date in
2018 which is expected to remain robust through the balance of the
year. The strategic decisions that Tamarack has made historically,
in particular with regards to the Viking Acquisition, have allowed
the Company to double production volumes and set the stage for a
new standard of operational excellence and shareholder value
creation. Tamarack’s unique returns-based growth model, financial
flexibility and continued focus on operational improvements will
continue to unlock the value of its rich asset base.
2017 Year-End Reserves Summary
The impact of Tamarack’s strategic shift to
direct more capital to oil and liquids projects through 2017 was
clearly demonstrated by strengthening of the Company’s operating
netback, which averaged $28.54/boe in Q4/17. Based on this
operating netback, Tamarack generated a TPP F&D recycle ratio
of 1.6x, and 1.4x for both TP and PDP, and FD&A recycle ratios
of 1.4x for TPP, 1.0x for TP and 0.9x for PDP. The Company
maintained a consistent approach to reserves booking, with TPP
reserves including only 200 net proved undeveloped horizontal
Viking oil drilling locations and 44 net undeveloped horizontal
Cardium drilling locations. Further, the future development capital
within GLJ’s 2017 reserves evaluation for 2018 of $114.3 million
and $154.1 million for 2019 is materially lower than Tamarack’s
current 2018 capital expenditure guidance of $195 to $205
million.
Consistent with Tamarack’s focus on increasing
its oil and liquids weighting, the Company intends to allocate the
majority of its 2018 capital expenditure budget (approximately
$145-$150 million) to the areas of Wilson Creek, Veteran and Penny,
all of which have locations offering greater than 80% oil
weighting. As a result of this budgeting decision, Tamarack
anticipates field operating netbacks will further increase through
2018 assuming the current commodity price environment remains
stable.
The following tables highlight Tamarack’s 2017
year-end independent reserves assessment and evaluation prepared by
GLJ with an effective date of December 31, 2017 (the “GLJ
Report”). The GLJ Report has been prepared in accordance with
definitions, standards and procedures contained in National
Instrument 51-101 – Standards of Disclosure for Oil and Gas
Activities (“NI 51-101”) and the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation
Handbook. All evaluations and summaries of future net revenue
are stated prior to provision for interest, debt service charges or
general and administrative expenses and after deduction of
royalties, operating costs, estimated well abandonment and
reclamation costs and estimated future capital expenditures. The
information included in the “Net Present Values of Future Net
Revenue before Income Taxes” table below is based on an average of
pricing assumptions prepared by three independent external reserves
evaluators. It should not be assumed that the estimates of future
net revenues presented in the tables below represent the fair
market value of the reserves.
- PDP reserves increased by 53% per fully-diluted share.
- Increased TP reserves by 55% to 51.8 million boe, and TPP
reserves by 62% to 91.5 million boe.
- Oil and NGLs weighting across all reserves categories increased
to approximately 62% compared to 2016 weightings of approximately
60%.
- Significant increases in oil reserves of 51%, 55% and 74% on
PDP, TP and TPP, respectively, over 2016.
- 2017 TP reserves represents 57% of total TPP reserves compared
to 2016 at 59%.
- Including acquisitions, the Company replaced 350% of production
on a TP basis and 575% on a TPP basis.
- Achieved TP F&D costs of approximately $20.70/boe and TP
FD&A costs of approximately $27.86/boe, both including the
change in future development capital ("FDC").
- Achieved TPP F&D costs of approximately $17.88/boe and TPP
FD&A costs of approximately $20.91/boe, both including the
change in FDC.
- Realized three-year average TPP F&D costs of approximately
$13.59/boe and TPP FD&A costs of $16.08/boe, both including the
change in FDC.
- Increased TPP reserve life index to 12.4 years based on 2017
average production of 20,136 boe/d.
Reserves Snapshot by
Category:
|
PDP |
|
TP |
|
TPP |
|
Reserves
Added(1) (mboe) |
|
18,166 |
|
|
25,724 |
|
|
42,291 |
|
Total
Reserves (mboe)(2) |
|
31,333 |
|
|
51,778 |
|
|
91,485 |
|
Reserves
Replacement |
|
247 |
% |
|
350 |
% |
|
575 |
% |
NPV10 BT
($mm) |
$ |
479.6 |
|
$ |
678.2 |
|
$ |
1,178.6 |
|
FD&A
Cost per boe(3) |
$ |
32.51 |
|
$ |
27.86 |
|
$ |
20.91 |
|
Recycle
Ratio(4) |
0.9x |
|
1.0x |
|
1.4x |
|
F&D
Cost per boe (3) |
$ |
20.99 |
|
$ |
20.70 |
|
$ |
17.88 |
|
Recycle
Ratio(4) |
1.4x |
|
1.4x |
|
1.6x |
|
Notes:(1) This number
takes the difference in reserves year over year plus the production
for the year.(2) Total reserves are Company Gross
Reserves which exclude royalty volumes.(3) Including changes
in FDC.(4) Based on Q4 2017 operating netback excluding
hedges of $28.54 per boe.
Reserves Data (Forecast Prices and
Costs) – Company Gross
RESERVES CATEGORY |
CRUDE OIL(1) |
CONVENTIONALNATURAL GAS |
NATURAL GASLIQUIDS |
TOTAL OILEQUIVALENT |
Gross(Mbbls) |
Net(Mbbls) |
Gross(Mmcf) |
Net(Mmcf) |
Gross(Mbbls) |
Net(Mbbls) |
Gross(Mboe) |
Net(Mboe) |
PROVED: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed
Producing |
15,331 |
13,622 |
79,309 |
71,986 |
2,766 |
2,178 |
31,316 |
27,797 |
Developed
Non-Producing |
901 |
810 |
6,177 |
5,259 |
39 |
32 |
1,970 |
1,718 |
Undeveloped |
10,625 |
9,455 |
38,729 |
35,631 |
1,396 |
1,271 |
18,475 |
16,665 |
TOTAL PROVED |
26,857 |
23,887 |
124,214 |
112,875 |
4,200 |
3,481 |
51,761 |
46,181 |
PROBABLE |
22,556 |
19,935 |
86,080 |
78,162 |
2,799 |
2,398 |
39,701 |
35,360 |
TOTAL PROVED PLUS PROBABLE |
49,413 |
43,822 |
210,295 |
191,037 |
6,999 |
5,879 |
91,462 |
81,540 |
Notes:(1) Heavy oil and
tight oil included in the crude oil product type represents less
than 3.1% of any reserves category and as such is
immaterial.(2) Columns may not add due to rounding.
Net Present Values of Future Net Revenue
before Income Taxes Discounted at (% per year)
RESERVES CATEGORY |
0%($000s) |
5%($000s) |
10%($000s) |
15%($000s) |
20%($000s) |
Unit ValueBefore IncomeTaxDiscounted at10% PerYear(1)($/Boe) |
PROVED: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Developed
Producing |
763,480 |
574,178 |
479,594 |
418,750 |
374,925 |
17.25 |
Developed
Non-Producing |
46,668 |
37,684 |
32,659 |
29,273 |
26,746 |
19.01 |
Undeveloped |
282,396 |
223,597 |
165,940 |
122,192 |
89,947 |
9.96 |
TOTAL PROVED |
1,092,544 |
835,458 |
678,193 |
570,215 |
491,618 |
14.69 |
PROBABLE |
1,068,532 |
703,269 |
500,394 |
376,503 |
295,378 |
14.15 |
TOTAL PROVED PLUS PROBABLE |
2,161,076 |
1,538,728 |
1,178,587 |
946,718 |
786,996 |
14.45 |
Notes:(1) Unit values
based on Company Interest Reserves.(2) The prices used to
estimate net present values are the average of those used by the
largest independent industry reserve evaluators.(3) Columns
may not add due to rounding.
Reconciliation of Company Gross Reserves
Based on Forecast Prices and Costs
|
MBOE |
FACTORS |
Proved |
|
Probable |
|
Proved +Probable |
|
December
31, 2016 |
33,369 |
|
23,129 |
|
56,498 |
|
Extensions and Improved Recovery(1) |
10,159 |
|
8,407 |
|
18,567 |
|
Technical
Revisions |
1,807 |
|
(1,673 |
) |
133 |
|
Acquisitions |
14,666 |
|
9,893 |
|
24,559 |
|
Dispositions |
(88 |
) |
(133 |
) |
(221 |
) |
Economic
Factors |
(803 |
) |
79 |
|
(724 |
) |
Production |
(7,350 |
) |
- |
|
(7,350 |
) |
December 31, 2017 |
51,761 |
|
39,701 |
|
91,462 |
|
Notes:(1) Reserves
additions under Infill Drilling, Improved Recovery and Extensions
are combined and reported as "Extensions and Improved
Recovery".(2) Columns may not add due to rounding.(3)
Company Gross Reserves exclude royalty volumes.
Future Development Capital
Costs
The following is a summary of GLJ’s estimated
future development capital required to bring proved and probable
undeveloped reserves on production.
Future Development Capital(1) |
|
|
(amounts in $000s) |
Total Proved |
Total Proved + Probable |
2018 |
70,037 |
114,328 |
2019 |
117,080 |
154,073 |
2020 |
134,658 |
183,613 |
2021 and
Subsequent |
39,224 |
242,746 |
Total
Undiscounted FDC |
360,998 |
694,759 |
Total
Discounted FDC at 10% per year |
302,034 |
553,416 |
Notes:(1) FDC as per GLJ
independent reserve evaluation effective December 31, 2017 based on
GLJ forecast pricing.
FD&A Costs |
2017 |
Three Year Average |
|
|
|
|
|
(amounts in $000s except as noted) |
TP |
TPP |
TP |
TPP |
FD&A costs, including FDC(1)(2) |
|
|
|
|
Exploration and development capital expenditures (3)(4) |
192,302 |
192,302 |
103,064 |
103,064 |
Acquisitions, net of dispositions |
397,725 |
397,725 |
175,733 |
175,733 |
Total change in FDC |
126,251 |
293,941 |
67,805 |
109,294 |
Total FD&A capital, including change in
FDC |
716,278 |
883,969 |
346,602 |
388,091 |
|
|
|
|
|
Reserve
additions, including revisions – Mboe |
11,128 |
17,929 |
6,079 |
7,598 |
Acquisitions, net of dispositions – Mboe |
14,579 |
24,339 |
10,189 |
16,532 |
Total FD&A Reserves |
25,707 |
42,268 |
16,267 |
24,130 |
|
|
|
|
|
F&D
costs, including FDC - $/boe |
20.70 |
17.88 |
17.35 |
13.59 |
Acquisition costs, net of dispositions - $/boe |
33.33 |
23.15 |
23.67 |
17.23 |
FD&A costs, including FDC - $/boe |
27.86 |
20.91 |
21.31 |
16.08 |
Notes:(1) While Nl 51-101
requires that the effects of acquisitions and dispositions be
excluded from the calculation of finding and development costs,
FD&A costs have been presented because acquisitions and
dispositions can have a significant impact on the Company's ongoing
reserve replacement costs and excluding these amounts could result
in an inaccurate portrayal of the Company's cost structure. Finding
and development costs both including and excluding acquisitions and
dispositions have been presented above.(2) The calculation of
FD&A costs incorporates the change in FDC required to bring
proved undeveloped and developed reserves into production. In all
cases, the FD&A number is calculated by dividing the identified
capital expenditures by the applicable reserves additions after
changes in FDC costs.(3) The aggregate of the exploration and
development costs incurred in the most recent financial year and
the change during that year in estimated future development costs
generally will not reflect total finding and development costs
related to reserves additions for that year.(4) The capital
expenditures also exclude capitalized administration
costs.(5) Columns may not add due to rounding.(6)
Calculations using Company Gross Reserves which exclude royalty
volumes.
Operations Update
Given the Company’s decision to accelerate some
of its Q1 2018 capital into Q4 2017, Tamarack completed its first
quarter drilling program in the Alberta Viking and Wilson Creek
Cardium areas by mid-February 2018, resulting in the drilling of 30
(29.0 net) horizontal Viking light oil wells, nine (9.0 net)
Cardium oil wells, and five (4.7 net) oil wells at Redwater.
Based on field estimates for January and February 2018, Tamarack
averaged approximately 22,800 boe/d for the first two months of the
year, with 15 (14.5 net) Viking and five (5.0 net) Cardium wells
yet to be brought on production. The Company is on target to
achieve its first half 2018 average production guidance of 22,750 –
23,250 boe/d (64-66% liquids). In addition, the Veteran oil
battery expansion to 10,000 bbls/d of oil and 10 mmcf/d of natural
gas which was originally scheduled for commissioning in April of
2018 remains on budget and schedule.
Tamarack is pleased to confirm it has entered
into an agreement to commit on a take-or-pay basis to deliver at
least 4,000 bbls of oil per day to a midstream company’s new 120 km
pipeline (the “Viking Pipeline Project”). The Viking Pipeline
Project will extend the reach of the existing Provost pipeline and
support Tamarack’s planned development of the Veteran Viking oil
play by ensuring the Company has access to oil markets, with
initial capacity of 13,300 bbls/d and the potential to expand up to
25,000 bbls/d. This contract will eliminate the need for
Tamarack to truck oil sales to markets and is anticipated to reduce
Veteran operating costs by approximately $1.45/boe contributing to
corporate production and transportation cost savings of
approximately $0.40 to $0.50/boe in 2019. The midstream
company has indicated the Viking Pipeline Project is expected to be
operational by the end of the first quarter of 2019.
In 2018, Tamarack projects to achieve 10-15%
debt adjusted production per share growth over the 2017 average,
maintain net debt to annualized Q4/18 adjusted funds flow of less
than one times and improve liquids weighting resulting in increased
netbacks. Tamarack’s business remains solid and at times management
believes the Company’s prevailing share price does not adequately
reflect the underlying value of its assets. As such, Tamarack
has received Board approval to make an application to implement a
normal course issuer bid (“NCIB”) through the facilities of the
Toronto Stock Exchange and alternate trading platforms, pursuant to
which Tamarack would have the option to repurchase its common
shares for cancellation. The NCIB represents an additional tool
that can be employed as part of management’s ongoing strategy to
increase long-term shareholder value.
2018 Guidance
The Company reiterates 2018 guidance as outlined
below:
- Annual average production between 22,500 – 23,500 boe/d (64-66%
oil and liquids), with 2018 exit production estimated between
24,000 – 24,500 boe/d (65-67% oil and liquids);
- Capital expenditure range of $195 to $205 million, weighted
approximately equally between the first and second halves;
- Estimated year end 2018 net debt to fourth quarter annualized
adjusted funds flow ratio of less than 1.0 times with an estimated
$100 million of liquidity on the Company's existing credit
facilities; and
- Assumed 2018 commodity prices averaging approximately:
WTI US$56.75/bbl, Edmonton Par price averaging C$64.60/bbl, AECO
averaging $1.65/GJ and a Canadian/US dollar exchange rate of $0.79.
Tamarack has also assumed an interest rate increase of 0.5% in
2018.
About Tamarack Valley Energy
Ltd.
Tamarack is an oil and gas exploration and
production company committed to long-term growth and the
identification, evaluation and operation of resource plays in the
Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. Tamarack’s strategic direction
is focused on two key principles – targeting repeatable and
relatively predictable plays that provide long-life reserves, and
using a rigorous, proven modeling process to carefully manage risk
and identify opportunities. The Company has an extensive inventory
of low-risk, oil development drilling locations focused primarily
in the Cardium and Viking fairways in Alberta that are economic
over a range of oil and natural gas prices. With this type of
portfolio and an experienced and committed management team,
Tamarack intends to continue delivering on its strategy to maximize
shareholder returns while managing its balance sheet.
Abbreviations
bbls |
barrels |
bbls/d |
barrels per day |
boe |
barrels of oil equivalent |
boe/d |
barrels of oil equivalent per day |
Mboe |
thousands barrels of oil equivalent |
mcf |
thousand cubic feet |
GJ |
gigajoule |
MMcf |
million cubic feet |
Mbbls |
thousand barrels |
mcf/d |
thousand cubic feet per day |
WTI |
West
Texas Intermediate, the reference price paid in U.S. dollars at
Cushing, Oklahoma for the crude oil standard grade |
AECO |
the
natural gas storage facility located at Suffield, Alberta connected
to TransCanada’s Alberta System |
IFRS |
International Financial Reporting Standards as issued by the
International Accounting Standards Board |
Oil and Gas Advisories
Unit Cost Calculation.
For the purpose of calculating unit costs, natural gas
volumes have been converted to a barrel of oil equivalent using six
thousand cubic feet equal to one barrel unless otherwise stated. A
boe conversion ratio of 6:1 is based upon an energy equivalency
conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does
not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. This conversion
conforms with Canadian Securities Regulators’ NI 51–101. Boe’s may
be misleading, particularly if used in isolation.
Drilling Locations. In this
press release, the 1,250 net drilling locations identified include
266 net proved locations, 245 net probable locations and 739
un-booked locations. Proved locations and probable locations
account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or
probable reserves, as applicable. Un-booked locations are internal
estimates based on prospective acreage and an assumption as to the
number of wells that can be drilled per section based on industry
practice and internal review. Un-booked locations do not have
attributed reserves or resources. While certain of the un-booked
drilling locations have been de-risked by drilling existing wells
in relative close proximity to such un-booked drilling locations,
the majority of un-booked drilling locations are farther away from
existing wells where management has less information about the
characteristics of the reservoir and therefore there is more
uncertainty whether wells will be drilled in such locations and, if
drilled, there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in
additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production.
Reserves Disclosure. All
reserve references in this press release are “Company interest
reserves”. Company interest reserves are the Company's total
working interest reserves before the deduction of any royalties and
including any royalty interests payable the Company. It should not
be assumed that the present worth of estimated future cash flow
presented herein represents the fair market value of the reserves.
There is no assurance that the forecast prices and costs
assumptions will be attained and variances could be material. The
recovery and reserve estimates of Tamarack’s crude oil, natural gas
liquids and natural gas reserves provided herein are estimates only
and there is no guarantee that the estimated reserves will be
recovered. Actual crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids
reserves may be greater than or less than the estimates provided
herein.
Oil and Gas Metrics. This press
release contains metrics commonly used in the oil and natural gas
industry, such as operating field netback, operating netback,
development capital, F&D costs, FD&A costs, recycle ratio,
reserve life index and net asset value.
“Operating field netback” equals total
petroleum and natural gas sales less royalties and operating costs
calculated on a boe basis.
“Operating netback” is the operating field
netback with realized gains and losses on commodity derivative
contracts.
“Development capital” means the aggregate
exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year on
reserves that are categorized as development. Development capital
presented herein excludes land and capitalized administration costs
and also includes the cost of acquisitions and capital associated
with acquisitions where reserve additions are attributed to the
acquisitions.
“Finding and development costs” are calculated
as the sum of field capital plus the change in FDC for the period
divided by the change in reserves that are characterized as
development for the period and “finding, development and
acquisition costs” are calculated as the sum of field capital plus
acquisition capital plus the change in FDC for the period divided
by the change in total reserves, other than from production, for
the period. Both finding and development costs and finding
development and acquisition costs take into account reserves
revisions during the year on a per boe basis. The aggregate of the
exploration and development costs incurred in the financial year
and changes during that year in estimated future development costs
generally will not reflect total finding and development costs
related to reserves additions for that year. Finding and
development costs both including and excluding acquisitions and
dispositions have been presented in this press release because
acquisitions and dispositions can have a significant impact on
Tamarack’s ongoing reserves replacements costs and excluding these
amounts could result in an inaccurate portrayal of the Company’s
cost structure.
“Recycle ratio” is measured by dividing the
operating netback for the applicable period by F&D cost per boe
for the year. The recycle ratio compares netback from existing
reserves to the cost of finding new reserves and may not accurately
indicate the investment success unless the replacement reserves are
of equivalent quality as the produced reserves.
“Reserve life index” is calculated as total
Company interest reserves divided by annual production.
“Net asset value” is based on present value of
future net revenues discounted at 10% before tax on reserves, plus
the Company’s internally estimated undeveloped land value, net of
estimated net debt at year end divided by the fully diluted shares
outstanding at year end.
These terms have been calculated by management
and do not have a standardized meaning and may not be comparable to
similar measures presented by other companies, and therefore should
not be used to make such comparisons. Management uses these oil and
gas metrics for its own performance measurements and to provide
shareholders with measures to compare Tamarack’s operations over
time. Readers are cautioned that the information provided by these
metrics, or that can be derived from the metrics presented in this
press release, should not be relied upon for investment or other
purposes.
Forward-Looking Information
This press release contains certain
forward-looking information (collectively referred to herein as
“forward-looking statements”) within the meaning of applicable
Canadian securities laws. Forward-looking statements are
often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as
“target”, “plan”, “continue”, “intend”, “ongoing”, “estimate”,
“expect”, “may”, “should”, or similar words suggesting future
outcomes. More particularly, this press release contains
statements concerning: Tamarack’s business strategy, objectives,
strength and focus; an increase in capital efficiencies, cost
cutting initiatives and netbacks; the ability of the Company to
achieve drilling success consistent with management’s expectations;
strategies to minimize exposure to Alberta gas market fluctuations,
including hedging and diversifying gas sales; drilling plans
including the timing of drilling; the expansion of the oil battery
in Veteran; the Viking Pipeline Project and the timing and effects
thereof; the NCIB; the payout of wells and the timing thereof; oil
and natural gas production levels; timing and level of 2018 capital
expenditures; F&D costs and FD&A costs, including FDC; 2018
exit debt; forecast 2018 annual production range and liquid
weighting percentage; 2018 production guidance; 2018 drilling
program; and shareholder returns. The forward-looking statements
contained in this document are based on certain key expectations
and assumptions made by Tamarack relating to prevailing commodity
prices, the availability of drilling rigs and other oilfield
services, the cost of such oilfield services, the timing of past
operations and activities in the planned areas of focus, the
drilling, completion and tie-in of wells being completed as
planned, the performance of new and existing wells, the application
of existing drilling and fracturing techniques, the continued
availability of capital and skilled personnel, the ability to
maintain or grow the banking facilities and the accuracy of
Tamarack’s geological interpretation of its drilling and land
opportunities. Although management considers these assumptions to
be reasonable based on information currently available to it, undue
reliance should not be placed on the forward-looking statements
because Tamarack can give no assurances that they may prove to be
correct.
By their very nature, forward-looking statements
are subject to certain risks and uncertainties (both general and
specific) that could cause actual events or outcomes to differ
materially from those anticipated or implied by such
forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include,
but are not limited to: risks associated with the oil and gas
industry (e.g. operational risks in development, exploration and
production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration
or development projects or capital expenditures); commodity prices;
the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to
production, cash generation, costs and expenses; health, safety,
litigation and environmental risks; and access to capital. Due to
the nature of the oil and natural gas industry, drilling plans and
operational activities may be delayed or modified to react to
market conditions, results of past operations, regulatory approvals
or availability of services causing results to be delayed. Please
refer to Tamarack’s AIF for additional risk factors relating to
Tamarack. The AIF can be accessed either on Tamarack’s website at
www.tamarackvalley.ca or under the Company’s profile on
www.sedar.com.
The forward-looking statements contained in this
press release are made as of the date hereof and the Company does
not undertake any obligation to update publicly or to revise any of
the included forward-looking statements, except as required by
applicable law. The forward-looking statements contained herein are
expressly qualified by this cautionary statement.
This press release contains future-oriented
financial information and financial outlook information
(collectively, “FOFI”) about Tamarack’s prospective results of
operations, production, net debt, debt adjusted production per
share, net debt to adjusted funds flow ratio, adjusted funds flow
netbacks, operating netbacks, operating costs, capital
efficiencies, capital expenditures and components thereof, all of
which are subject to the same assumptions, risk factors,
limitations and qualifications as set forth in the above paragraphs
and the assumption outlined in the Non-IFRS measures section below.
FOFI contained in this press release was made as of the date of
this press release and was provided for the purpose of providing
further information about Tamarack’s anticipated future business
operations. Tamarack disclaims any intention or obligation to
update or revise any FOFI contained in this press release, whether
as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless
required pursuant to applicable law. Readers are cautioned that the
FOFI contained in this press release should not be used for
purposes other than for which it is disclosed herein.
Non-IFRS Measures
Certain financial measures referred to in this
press release, such as net debt, adjusted funds flow, net debt to
annualized adjusted funds flow, debt adjusted production per share,
capital efficiency, cash flow, adjusted funds flow netbacks and net
debt to adjusted funds flow ratio are not prescribed by IFRS.
Tamarack uses these measures to help evaluate its financial and
operating performance as well as its liquidity and leverage. These
non-IFRS financial measures do not have any standardized meaning
prescribed by IFRS and therefore may not be comparable to similar
measures presented by other issuers.
“Net debt” is calculated as long-term debt plus working capital
surplus or deficit adjusted for risk management contracts.
“Adjusted funds flow” is calculated based on cash flows from
operating activities before changes in non-cash working capital,
transaction costs and abandonment expenditures are incurred.
“Net debt to annualized adjusted funds flow” is calculated as
net debt divided by annualized adjusted funds flow.
“Debt-adjusted production per share” represents the Tamarack’s
production per share after adjusting for debt.
“Capital efficiency” represents Tamarack’s capital and
production costs per day calculated on a per boe basis.
“Cash flow” is determined as gross oil, natural gas and natural
gas liquids revenues including realized gains on commodity risk
management contracts, less the following: royalties, operating
costs, transportation costs, general and administrative costs and
finance expenses.
“Adjusted funds flow netbacks” equals adjusted funds flow
divided by the total sales volume and reported on a per boe
basis.
“Debt to cash flow ratio” is calculated as debt divided by cash
flow.
Please refer to the MD&A for additional
information relating to non-IFRS measures. The MD&A will be
filed under the Company’s profile on www.sedar.com and will be
available on Tamarack’s website at www.tamarackvalley.ca.
For additional information, please contact:
Brian SchmidtPresident &
CEOTamarack Valley Energy
Ltd.Phone:
403.263.4440www.tamarackvalley.ca
Ron HozjanVP Finance &
CFOTamarack Valley Energy
Ltd.Phone:
403.263.4440
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