Why The 4-Year Crypto Cycle Is A Thing Of The Past: Top-Analyst
05 Agosto 2024 - 1:00PM
NEWSBTC
The long-held belief in the crypto market’s predictable four-year
cycle, characterized by distinct phases of accumulation, uptrend,
distribution, and downtrend, is being questioned by top-analyst
Jordan Fish, better known as Cobie. He articulated an argument that
challenges this traditional view, suggesting that the concept of a
cyclic market may no longer hold true. Cobie ignited a debate on X
(formerly Twitter) with his assertion, “Unironically [the bull run]
has not even started yet.” This statement was met with incredulity
by some, such as Maher Abdelsala, who remarked, “Brother people
think you are serious lol.” Cobie clarified his stance, stating, “I
am serious! Increasingly I like the argument that this is not even
a ‘cycle’, really, but it’s more like 2019 with leverage and ETFs.”
The End Of The Traditional Crypto Cycle? Cobie’s perspective hinges
on the notion that the structural dynamics of the crypto market
have fundamentally changed. He draws parallels to the market
conditions of 2019, but with significant differences influenced by
the proliferation of leverage and the introduction of spot Bitcoin
and Ethereum Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs). “Was 2019 a new ‘cycle’
or was it part of the bear market?” Cobie pondered. “Floated this
idea to a few people in March but everyone told me I was an idiot,
which I am, but still it was quite rude to say that to my face.”
Related Reading: Crypto Market Liquidations Top $197 Million As
Bitcoin Price Plunges Below $60,000 The introduction of ETFs and
the increased use of leverage have brought new complexities to the
market. These instruments have changed how capital flows into and
out of the crypto ecosystem, creating a less predictable and more
fragmented market landscape. Cobie emphasized, “Of course if we’re
in 2019-looking-2024, it doesn’t mean 2020 plays out the same way,
because structurally so much is different now with ETFs and high
FDVs and shit, probably too difficult to pattern match too much
stuff about the future.” Cobie’s analysis suggests that the current
market exhibits a high degree of dispersion, where various assets
behave differently rather than moving in unison as seen in previous
cycles. This dispersion makes it challenging to identify a single
driving force or pattern that governs the entire market. “I think
this cycle is so unlike any other cycle it’s probably better to
just stop thinking of cycles altogether,” Cobie stated. “It’s clear
there is no one single thread pulling everything forward like it
did before.” Related Reading: ‘Not All Hope Is Lost’: Crypto
Analyst Weighs In On The Market’s Performance This view is
reinforced by the performance of certain cryptocurrencies. For
instance, Chainlink (LINK) and Dogecoin (DOGE) are cited by Cobie
as examples where the traditional hype and subsequent price
appreciation may no longer apply. He explained, “I think there’s a
very strong likelihood stuff like that could potentially never make
new highs again and LINK could just keep existing as a wildly
successful oracle without the price appreciation.” The Echo Bubble
Phenomenon In the context of market maturity, Cobie referenced the
concept of the “echo bubble,” popularized by the renowned trader
GCR (Global Coin Research). The echo bubble theory posits that a
smaller bubble follows the burst of a larger one, as observed in
2019 following the massive rally in 2017. Cobie expressed surprise
at GCR’s recent market behavior, noting, “I actually found it
pretty weird GCR kept talking about the echo bubble when he was
bullish at the picobottom but then when shit started getting silly
he just bought the dogwithhat NFT and broke his hiatus to come and
tell people not to sell.” Overall, Cobie believes that the market
is currently in a “multi-month/quarter cool-off reaccumulation
period” for Bitcoin. He expects Bitcoin to trade within a range of
$45,000 to $70,000, with a possibility of a brief breakout to new
highs. However, he is pessimistic about the future of many
altcoins, particularly those that have survived multiple market
cycles. “I def think all the sudden memecoin theses marked an
intermediary top for overall risk appetite, and everyone has been
conditioned to max long as soon as they think we’re ready to go for
it again.” He anticipates that many of these older altcoins will
“slowly bleed away and become irrelevant” as speculative
investments. This outlook suggests that the market’s risk-on
paradigm, characterized by rapid and extensive price increases, may
not resume anytime soon. He concludes, “So long story short I think
we need a lot more time before the (real) risk on paradigm starts
again and I expect more downside to come before it happens.” At
press time, Bitcoin traded at $51,104. Featured image from iStock,
chart from TradingView.com
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